Human resource management practices and voluntary turnover: a study of internal workforce and external labor market contingencies

We tested relationships between employee quit rates and two bundles of human resource (HR) practices that reflect the different interests of the two parties involved in the employment relationship. To understand the boundary conditions for these effects, we examined an external contingency proposed to influence the exchange-based effects of HR practices on subsequent quit rates – the local industry-specific unemployment rate – and an internal contingency proposed to shape employees’ conceptualization of their exchange relationship – their employment status (i.e. full-time, part-time and temporary employment). Analyses of lagged data from over 200 Canadian establishments show that inducement HR practices (e.g. extensive benefits) and performance expectation HR practices (e.g. performance-based bonuses) had different effects on quit rates, and the former effect was moderated by unemployment rate. The effects of HR practices on quit rates did not differ between FT and PT employees, but a different pattern of main and interactive effects was found among temporary workers. These findings suggest that employees’ exchange-based decisions to leave may be less affected by the number of hours they expect to work each week, and more by the number of weeks they expect to work.     

Local Labour Markets and Theft: New Evidence from Canada

This paper provides causal evidence that labour market opportunities affect theft‐related crime rates in Canada. Synthetic panel data from 2007–2011 combine the Labour Force Survey and Uniform Crime Reports microdata. Low‐skill unemployment rates and corresponding crime rates are measured for age‐city‐specific groups of young males. IV estimates exploit the exposure of low‐skill employment to exogenous demand for exports to the US. Causal estimates of the elasticity of theft‐related crimes with respect to low‐skill unemployment range from 0.357 to 0.654. The use of aggregated unemployment rates appears to bias OLS estimates downward. IV estimates are found to mitigate this aggregation bias.     

Race,Self‐Employment,and Labor Absorption

Past studies have argued that in the large cities of developing societies, unemployment is often alleviated when displaced workers are absorbed into the small‐scale entrepreneurial activities of the informal economy. The present study applies this argument to an analysis of women's self‐employment in the U.S. South during the Great Depression. Census data show that in large southern cities in 1940, the unemployment of black women was meaningfully reduced by the self‐employment of these women in domestic service. These data further suggest that dynamics of race, unemployment, and the self‐employment of women in domestic service can be represented by an inverted‐U‐shaped labor absorption curve. These results make several contributions to research on race, labor‐market disadvantage, and self‐employment in the informal sector.     

Are some sectors more “youth friendly” than others? Employment regimes,sectors, and gender disparities in the Great Recession

Despite national differences in youth employment, many countries share striking similarities in the uneven sectoral distribution of job opportunities for young women and men in Europe. A shift‐share analysis of European Labour Force data identifies “youth‐friendly” sectors, how this varies between countries, and how this changed during the Great Recession. This reveals how youth job opportunities were lost because the sector shrank or because employers were less likely to offer full‐time, permanent contracts. New jobs for youth were more likely to be in part‐time and temporary employment. Youth vulnerability to unemployment is contingent not only on employers' engagement with institutions shaping school‐to‐work transitions but also on gender segregation and to the fact that some sectors have been particularly fragile during the economic crisis. Future research needs to link institutional effects with employers' business strategies to understand how these shape job opportunities for young women and men.     

Does Italy's plight threaten European Monetary Union?

The Italian economy is in a mess. GDP is expected to contract by 0.6% this year and the budget deficit is heading towards 4% of GDP – it is hard to see a way out of the mire. And after the rejection of the European constitution in France and the Netherlands, questions are being asked about the very future of the European project. With Italy fundamentally uncompetitive across a whole range of both price and non‐prices measures, and with an industrial structure ill‐equipped to deal with the challenges of globalisation, Italy's long‐term membership of the Euro is being debated. This article by Keith Church sets out Italy's problems and argues that, if the economy stagnates for a prolonged period, pressure to leave EMU will become irresistible. This can be avoided if the government finally implements structural reforms instead of continually ‘muddling through’. At the same time, the ECB needs to realise the urgency of the current situation and start to show greater flexibility.     

Wage Formation,Regional Migration and Local Labour Market Tightness*

Empirical studies of regional wage formation and interregional migration routinely include the regional unemployment rate as indicator of local labour market tightness. However, these studies are usually motivated by economic theories that emphasize transition probabilities between unemployment and employment, and the unemployment rate is an imperfect proxy for these probabilities. We use a large micro data set to compute estimates of the rate of outflow from unemployment for 90 Norwegian travel‐to‐work areas. The outflow rates perform better than traditional measures of regional labour market tightness in panel data analyses of regional wages and interregional migration.     

Promoting the informal sector as a source of gainful employment in developing countries: insights from Ghana

Although the informal sector continues to be the main source of employment in developing countries, little empirical research has been conducted into the human resource management (HRM) issues surrounding this sector in sub-Saharan Africa. Against this background, this study seeks to highlight the HRM issues, such as training and employment strategy, which are assuming increasing importance in the informal sector in developing countries. After reviewing the marginalist and structuralist debates on the informal sector, the paper looks at the Ghanaian government's attempt to transform the sector into a source of national economic development, entrepreneurship and self-employment. As part of this examination, the paper explores the question of whether the government's strategies can provide jobs for all who need them.

Based on the evidence of the empirical research, the paper argues that although the current Ghanaian government's informal employment strategy is a product of political expediency and, therefore, prone to pitfalls, it nevertheless constitutes a worthwhile attempt to combat unemployment in the long term. The paper also contends that in environments of perpetual economic crisis, which undermine the ability of sub-Saharan African (SSA) governments to generate adequate growth, it makes good socio-economic sense to promote the informal sector as a significant source of employment. The government's strategy should, therefore, be seen as an attempt to help the informal sector generate a level of employment above the marginal and survival. In this respect, the Ghanaian experience provides useful lessons for other SSA countries grappling with similar unemployment problems.     

Labour contract regulations and workers' wellbeing: International longitudinal evidence

All industrialized countries have employment protection legislation (EPL) for permanent workers and restrictions on the use of temporary employment (RTE). The (ambiguous) effects of these on the levels of employment and unemployment have been extensively studied, but nothing is known empirically about their wellbeing implications. Using longitudinal data from the European Community Household Panel, the author conducts the first study of the link between both EPL and RTE and workers' wellbeing. The results provide evidence that both permanent and temporary employees gain from reforms that ease restrictions on temporary employment but leave firing costs for permanent workers unchanged. This finding contrasts with common claims found in the political economy literature.     

Turning Unemployment into Self‐Employment: Effectiveness of Two Start‐Up Programmes*

Turning unemployment into self‐employment has become a major focus of German active labour market policy (ALMP) in recent years. If effective, this would not only reduce Germany's persistently high unemployment rate, but also increase its notoriously low self‐employment rate. Empirical evidence on the effectiveness of such programmes is scarce. We evaluate the effectiveness of two start‐up programmes for the unemployed, where we include the probability of being employed, the probability of being unemployed and personal income as outcome variables. Our results show that at the end of the observation period, both programmes are effective. The considerable positive effects present a stark contrast to findings from evaluations of other German ALMP programmes in recent years. Hence, ALMP programmes aimed at moving the unemployed into self‐employment may prove to be among the most effective, both in Germany and elsewhere.     

人工智能时代我国就业公平的挑战及其应对

人工智能在提高经济与发展效率的同时,也引起了人们对失业风险的担忧。基于就业公平的视角,本文从就业的地区公平、行业公平以及群体公平三个视角分析了人工智能时代下就业公平可能面临的挑战。研究表明,人工智能可能会加剧我国就业的地区间、行业间以及群体间的不公平。鉴于此,需加强公共就业服务均等化,发挥公共就业服务的就业支持功能,促进就业的地区公平;需增强失业保险的发展性与调剂性,发挥失业保险的就业促进功能,促进就业的行业公平;需提高就业救助的独立性与完整性,发挥就业救助的就业保护功能,促进就业的群体公平。     

How low can U go?

• ? Although there is growing evidence that wage growth is building in response to low and falling unemployment in the advanced economies, there is scope for unemployment rates to fall further without triggering a pay surge.
• ? For a start, current unemployment rates in comparison to past cyclical troughs overstate the tightness of labour markets. Demographic trends associated with the ageing ‘baby boomer’ bulge have pushed down the headline unemployment rate – unemployment rates among older workers are lower than those of younger cohorts. And in a historical context, Europe still has a large pool of involuntary part‐timers.
• ? In addition, rising participation rates mean that demographics are less of a constraint on employment growth than widely assumed. In both 2017 and 2018, had it not been for increased activity rates (mainly for older cohorts), unemployment would have had to fall more sharply to accommodate the same employment increase. We expect rising participation rates to continue to act as a pressure valve for the labour market.
• ? Finally, unemployment rates were generally far lower during the 1950s and 1960s than now. If wages stay low relative to productivity, as was the case during that prior era, employment growth may remain strong, with unemployment falling further. In the post‐war era, low wages were partly a function of a grand bargain in which policy‐makers provided full employment in return for low wage growth.
• ? There is evidence to suggest that many post‐crisis workers have opted for the security of their existing full‐time job and its associated benefits despite lower wage growth, rather than change job and potentially earn more; the rise of the ‘gig economy’ has led some workers to value what they already have more. Put another way, the non‐accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) has fallen. So, the role of labour market tightness in pushing wage growth higher may continue to surprise to the downside.

     

Could unemployment go back to the post‐war heyday?

• ? The current ‘low’ rate of unemployment looks less impressive when compared with the 2–3% rates averaged in the 1950s and 1960s. But both then and now share a common driver of low joblessness – pay growth falling unusually short of productivity gains. While the chances of this continuing look stretching, a return to genuine full employment is not completely implausible .
• ? Why was unemployment so low in the early post‐war period? Given the current uncertainty over how far joblessness can sustainably drop and how this affects monetary policy, our analysis provides useful insights for the situation today.
• ? Several explanations have been mooted. A political commitment to full employment is one, although aspiration alone cannot provide a cause. And demand management using fiscal policy is hard to square with the period's modest budget deficits. Meanwhile, booming post‐war investment and trade and shortages of labour fail to explain why low joblessness did not quickly trigger rapid rises in pay and inflation.
• ? The cause of very low unemployment appears to have sat with wage restraint relative to productivity gains. Unlike most of the last 70 years, real pay growth consistently fell short of productivity rises in the 1950s and part of the 1960s, cutting the cost of workers and ensuring a low ‘equilibrium’ rate of unemployment.
• ? This explanation has parallels with the present day. Since 2010, productivity growth has outstripped real pay rises to an extent not seen since the 1950s. We do not expect this pattern to continue – our forecasts show real pay running slightly ahead of productivity growth over the next five years. But if the factors holding back pay were to persist, alongside a catch‐up in UK productivity, a return to a 1950s/60s‐style jobless rate is possible, if the MPC did not take fright at further declines in unemployment.

     

Were the Hartz Reforms Responsible for the Improved Performance of the German Labour Market?

From 2005 to 2011 employment rose and unemployment rates declined considerably in Germany. This favourable development followed the labour market reforms initiated in 2003, and there has been a tendency to attribute the improved labour market performance to those reforms. Causal micro‐evaluations of the various measures, however, show hardly any effects on variables that can be related to employment. Rather, it seems that employment increased in response to a process of wage moderation that had already begun in the 1990s. It is possible that this moderation was itself partially a product of the reforms, but this needs further investigation.     

我国产业结构与就业吸纳能力的实证分析

基于就业弹性的视角对我国产业结构与就业吸纳能力进行实证分析发现,我国第一产业拉动就业不足,第三产业拉动就业能力较强。再通过比较我国结构偏离系数与国际标准结构偏离系数发现:第一产业存在大量的隐性失业,第二产业吸纳就业能力在减弱,劳动力在向第三产业转移;各行业直接或者间接吸纳就业能力不同,批零餐饮业和社会服务等行业拉动就业作用最强。最后,从消除第一产业隐性失业、发展劳动密集型产业等角度提出了一些解决我国结构性就业矛盾的政策建议。     

Job creation and labour market flexibility: miracle or mirage on the Polish labour market?

Poland's post‐communist economic performance has been generally good. However, for many years, its growth was jobless; it exhibited very high unemployment rates and made little progress towards the targets set for EU Member States and accession countries. Unexpectedly, in 2003, the country's labour market began to exhibit a new dynamism, with employment growing strongly and unemployment tumbling. This apparent improvement coincided with a liberalisation of its Labour Code. Unfortunately, the measures introduced to increase flexibility are at variance with the EU's Fixed‐term Work Directive and will likely need to be modified, which may conceivably reverse the recent developments that form the focus of this article.     

Do Labour Market Programmes Speed up the Return to Work?*

We evaluate the impact of labour market programmes on unemployment durations in Norway, by means of a distribution‐free mixed proportional competing risks hazard rate model. We find that programme participation, once completed, improves employment prospects, but that there is often an opportunity cost in the form of a lock‐in effect during participation. The average net effect of programme participation on the length of the job search period is found to be around zero. For participants with poor employment prospects, the favourable post‐programme effects outweigh the negative lock‐in effects.     

A ‘lost decade’ for pay may be a taste of things to come

• ? The failure of pay growth to respond to falling unemployment is less of a puzzle when allowance is made for structural changes in the jobs market. But the same developments make it hard to see where a pay revival will come from.
• ? In real terms, the average weekly wage in the UK is below the level of 10 years ago, an unprecedentedly poor performance. This is despite joblessness dropping to a 42‐year low and employment at a record high.
• ? The responsiveness of pay to falling unemployment has dwindled. A shift towards less secure forms of employment, the tightening up of eligibility for benefits and the consequences of globalisation have all made workers more compliant and less willing and able to push for higher wages.
• ? The result has been a decline in the ‘equilibrium’ rate of unemployment. The Bank of England currently judges this rate to be around 4.5%. But that earnings growth is so subdued despite unemployment being in line the Bank's estimate suggests that the sustainable rate of joblessness may well be much lower.
• ? With unemployment forecast to plateau at current levels, the odds of a revival in pay growth look slim, despite possible upsides from strong corporate profitability and rises in the National Living Wage. This would not be a new development – a secular decline in earnings growth has been apparent over the last 30 years in both nominal and real terms, with pay growth in successive periods of economic expansion failing to return to pre‐recession norms.
• ? This suggests that a serious revival in pay growth is unlikely to happen without the economy operating at significantly higher pressure and with a substantially lower unemployment rate. But this would require a recognition of, and a more accommodative policy response to, the historically weak economic expansion since the financial crisis. Neither seems likely.

     

大学生就业困惑调查及对策——以广西水利电力职业技术学院2007级毕业生为例

随着我国高校逐年扩招,大学生队伍的规模不断壮大,大学生的就业问题及由此导致的一系列行为问题越来越为社会所关注,并成为国家重视的热点问题。文章以广西水利电力职业技术学院电力工程系2007级各强电专业的学生为研究对象,采用问卷调查形式对大学生就业困惑问题进行调查。结果发现,学生在就业形势认识、就业能力认识、就业渠道认识、就业心理认识、就业准备和择业观的认识方面都不存在不足之处,其中,让学生最为困惑的是大学生就业困难的原因、职业定位、对第一份工作的态度、决定自身就业成败的原因,困惑程度分别为28%、35%、37%、39%。     

The Sorting of Female Careers after First Birth: A Competing Risks Analysis of Maternity Leave Duration

A number of contributions have found evidence that motherhood is a critical life event for women's employment careers. This study presents a detailed analysis for the duration of maternity leave in which young mothers can make a transition into different types of employment, unemployment as well as the next birth. We provide a comprehensive picture of the sorting mechanisms that lead to the differentiation of women's employment careers after birth. Our empirical evidence is derived from large‐linked administrative individual labour market data from Germany for a period of three decades. We obtain unprecedented insights into how women's skills, the quality of the previous job match, firm level characteristics, labour market conditions and leave legislation are related to the length of maternity duration. Expansionary leave policies, e.g. are found to be a key factor for the rising share of women who have their second child out of inactivity.     

Government Employment and Wages and Labour Market Performance

Government wage, benefit, and employment decisions are not taken on a profit-maximizing basis, and have a substantial impact on aggregate labour market performance and unemployment. In a two-sector labour market model with free mobility of labour, an increase in government wages or benefits reduces private sector employment, and government employment is not an effective counter-cyclical instrument. Empirical tests for Greece confirm that the expansion of the public sector in the 1980s contributed to the deterioration of labour market performance.