Influence of acquirer boards on M&A value creation: Evidence from Continental Europe

We examine how the size and the composition of acquirer boards are associated with shareholder abnormal returns for 2,230 M&As made by listed firms in Continental Europe. Although board size proves insignificant, our findings do offer some evidence as to a beneficial effect of board diversity on M&A value creation. Gender diversity appears marginally positively associated with acquirer shareholder abnormal returns. The fraction of foreign directors is in general not significantly positive, unless the rule of law in the acquirer country is weak. Nonetheless, nationality diversity in the board turns out harmful in purely domestic takeovers. The influence of age diversity is marginally positive, yet only in domestic and horizontal takeovers. Next, the fraction of independent directors has a robust positive effect on the acquirer CAR, while directors with multiple board appointments prove valuable especially through preventing firms from pursuing poor takeovers. Finally, CEO duality is detrimental only in industry‐diversifying deals initiated by acquirers that are not controlled by an individual or a family shareholder. Any negative CEO‐duality effect is mitigated when the acquirer‐country rule of law is strong.     

Foreign direct investment and financial markets influences: Results from the United States

This paper investigates the linkages among Foreign Direct Investment (FDI-greenfield and mergers and acquisitions (M&A)) decisions and equity market returns and volatilities. The central premise is that FDI decisions by Multinational Enterprises (MNE) are influenced, among other factors, by risk and uncertainty indicated by equity market returns and volatilities in the destination (host) countries. This is because of the events on the stock markets in general, and their volatilities, in particular, signal the vitality of the investment climate of the target country. Including capital market variables among the determinants of FDI is important for assessing the cost of capital and for evaluating direct investment and asset allocation decisions.Secondary time-series data (quarterly) were used on incoming US FDI from 1994 to 2018 along with data on independent variables such as exchange rates, inflation, market size, equity market returns, and equity market volatilities. Thus, the paper endeavors to contribute to the International Business literature by highlighting the role played of equity returns and volatilities in FDI decisions and therewith attempts to integrate finance (capital markets) with International Business/Strategic Decision making. Several different regression specifications (OLS, Fixed, and random-effects and VAR) were utilized to analyze the data, and capital market variables (stock returns and volatilities) were found to influence the location of production facilities by a multinational enterprise (MNE). In other words, the share of production capacity optimally located abroad, as well as M&A decisions, are influenced by capital market returns and volatilities.     

Viceroys or Emperors? An Institution‐Based Perspective on Merger and Acquisition Prevalence and Shareholder Value

We study how cross‐country variance in institutions that aim to address core agency problems influences consequential strategic decisions of firms around the world. Scholars frequently argue that the interests of minority shareholders are threatened by merger and acquisitions (M&As) due to principal‐agency problems. Rather than acting in shareholders’ best interests, managers potentially act as viceroys, using M&As to cushion themselves from risk and extract more pay. Yet equally salient is the issue of principal‐principal agency, where controlling shareholders can behave as emperors who use M&As to siphon off assets and profits, and appropriate wealth of shareholders with fewer control rights. Taking an institution‐based perspective on these ‘viceroy’ and ‘emperor’ problems, we conjecture that institutions aimed to address these agency problems can generate the desired outcome regarding M&A prevalence, but may also produce unintentional negative consequences for shareholder value as a side‐effect. Empirical evidence covering M&As from 73 countries supports our hypotheses.     

REVERSE REGRESSIONS AND LONG‐HORIZON FORECASTING

Long‐horizon predictive regressions in finance pose formidable econometric problems when estimated using available sample sizes. Hodrick in 1992 proposed a remedy that is based on running a reverse regression of short‐horizon returns on the long‐run mean of the predictor. Unfortunately, this only allows the null of no predictability to be tested, and assumes stationary regressors. In this paper, we revisit long‐horizon forecasting from reverse regressions, and argue that reverse regression methods avoid serious size distortions in long‐horizon predictive regressions, even when there is some predictability and/or near unit roots. Meanwhile, the reverse regression methodology has the practical advantage of being easily applicable when there are many predictors. We apply these methods to forecasting excess bond returns using the term structure of forward rates, and find that there is indeed some return forecastability. However, confidence intervals for the coefficients of the predictive regressions are about twice as wide as those obtained with the conventional approach to inference. We also include an application to forecasting excess stock returns. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Price effects after one-day abnormal returns in developed and emerging markets: ESG versus traditional indices

This paper examines price effects related to one day abnormal returns on the stock market indices of both developed and emerging countries while accounting for differences between environmental, social, governance (ESG), and conventional indices. Using daily data from MSCI family indices from 2007 to 2020 and various methods to avoid methodological bias, the following hypotheses are tested: after one-day abnormal returns, specific price effects (momentum/contrarian) appear (H1) in cases of positive (H1.1) and negative (H1.2) returns, price effects after one-day abnormal returns are stronger in the case of traditional indices as compared to ESG indices (H2), price effects after one-day abnormal returns are stronger during the crisis period (H3), a dynamic trigger approach is more appropriate for defining abnormal returns than a static approach (H4), price effects after one-day abnormal returns are stronger in emerging markets as compared to developed ones (H5). The results are mixed in the case of H1 and provide no evidence in favor of H2-H5. They also show no significant differences between ESG and conventional indices. The types of detected price effects are the same for the cases of ESG and conventional indices; their power is different in some cases. Overall, a strong contrarian effect is observed in the US stock market after one-day abnormal returns; a trading strategy constructed based on this observation could generate profits from trading. The main results offer additional evidence against the Efficient Market Hypothesis and provide implications that can assist practitioners in beating the market.     

Cross‐Border Merger & Acquisition Activity and Revealed Comparative Advantage in Manufacturing Industries

We estimate an important implication of oligopolistic international trade modeling for the predicted pattern of cross‐border mergers and acquisitions (M&As). Our core argument is that cross‐border M&As are, among other factors, driven by cross‐country differences in comparative advantage. We find strong evidence that acquiring firms operate in industries with a comparative advantage. We also report (less pronounced) evidence that this holds for target firms as well. We therefore add another explanation, rooted in international economics, to the industrial organization literature on M&As that emphasizes efficiency and strategic motives.     

The influence and predictive powers of mixed-frequency individual stock sentiment on stock returns

In this article, we construct mixed-frequency individual stock sentiment using MIDAS model. We first investigate the influence power of mixed-frequency individual stock sentiment on excess returns. The results indicate that the higher the frequency of individual stock sentiment is, the better it explains the variation of excess returns, that mixed-frequency individual stock sentiment, especially mixed high-frequency sentiment, exerts greater influence on excess returns than the same frequency one and that the mixed-frequency sentiment has a stronger explanatory power to the variation of excess returns than size factor, book-to-market factor, profitability factor and investment factor do. Then, we study the predictive content of mixed-frequency individual stock sentiment. The results show that the higher the frequency of individual stock sentiment is, the better the forecast performs. Moreover, by comparing the corresponding statistics in influence and predictive power models, we find that the influence power of mixed-frequency individual stock sentiment is more significant than its predictive power.     

A Respecified Fama French Three‐Factor Model for the New European Union Member States

This study uses factor models to explain stock market returns in the Eastern European (EE) countries that joined the European Union (EU) in 2004. In line with other studies, we find that the market value of equity component in the Fama French (1993) three‐factor model performs poorly when applied to our emerging markets dataset. We propose a significant amendment to the standard three‐factor model by replacing the market value of equity factor with a term that proxies for accounting manipulation. We show that our three‐factor model is able to explain returns in the EE EU nations significantly better than the Fama French (1993) three‐factor model, hereby offering an alternative model for use in the numerous markets in which previous studies have found little correlation between market value of equity and equity returns.     

A comparative goodness-of-fit analysis of distributions of some Lévy processes and Heston model to stock index returns

In this paper, we investigate the goodness-of-fit of three Lévy processes, namely Variance-Gamma (VG), Normal-Inverse Gaussian (NIG) and Generalized Hyperbolic (GH) distributions, and probability distribution of the Heston model to index returns of twenty developed and emerging stock markets. Furthermore, we extend our analysis by applying a Markov regime switching model to identify normal and turbulent periods. Our findings indicate that the probability distribution of the Heston model performs well for emerging markets under full sample estimation and retains goodness of fit for high volatility periods, as it explicitly accounts for the volatility process. On the other hand, the distributions of the Lévy processes, especially the VG and NIG distributions, generally improves upon the fit of the Heston model, particularly for developed markets and low volatility periods. Furthermore, some distributions yield to significantly large test statistics for some countries, even though they fit well to other markets, which suggest that properties of the stock markets are crucial in identifying the best distribution representing empirical returns.     

The effect of housing and stock market wealth on consumption in emerging and developed countries

This study examines the long- and short-run relationship between private consumption, housing wealth, stock market wealth and income. In order to asses this relationship empirically, we use pooled mean group estimators of dynamic heterogeneous panel data on a sample of 30 developed and emerging economies. The sample countries are segmented into three separate panels: a developed bank-based panel, a developed market-based panel, and an emerging bank-based panel. Empirical estimates support the existence of long- and short-run stock market wealth effects in both groups of developed countries, with the effect being particularly strong in the developed market-based countries. A moderate long-run housing wealth effect is confirmed only for the developed bank-based countries, while a very strong short-run housing wealth effect is present in the developed market-based countries. As far as the emerging countries are concerned, the evidence is somewhat inconclusive, but it does seem to suggest that both wealth effects are effective in the long run, with housing wealth being more dominant.     

Corporate governance and firm performance relationship: Implications for risk‐adjusted return behavior

We examine the impact of corporate governance on firm performance and stock return behavior using panel data for Indian listed firms for 2006 to 2015. Our results suggest that corporate governance improves firm performance. However, corporate governance information fails to provide excess risk‐adjusted returns to investors, as governance information is well assimilated in prevailing stock prices. In addition to extending the scant literature focused on emerging markets, our findings will prove useful to investors, fund managers, and rating agencies in making investment decisions and regulators in assessing the impact of governance norms.     

Does US news impact Asian emerging markets? Evidence from nonparametric causality-in-quantiles test

This paper aims to analyze whether US news on inflation and unemployment causes returns and volatility of seven emerging Asian stock markets from 1994 to 2014, by employing the causality-in-quantile approach. We find evidence that US news affect returns and/or volatility of all the seven stock markets considered, with these effects clustered around the tails of the conditional distribution of returns and volatility when they are either in bear or bull modes. In general, our results highlight the importance of modeling nonlinearity and studying entire conditional distributions of stock returns and volatility to draw correct inferences.     

Determinants of Capital Structure: United Kingdom Versus Continental European Countries

In this paper, we analyze how country‐specific differences influence capital structure indirectly through firm‐specific variables. We apply a system Generalized Method of Moments technique to a panel data sample of companies from five countries (France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom) during the period 1998–2008. As the different financial systems of European economies (bank‐oriented or market‐oriented) may influence capital structure differently through firm‐specific variables, we first examine the determinants of capital structure for each country separately and we then analyze whether the observed differences between the United Kingdom and the continental European countries are relevant. The results show that there are substantial differences in the capital structure choices of firms across five major European countries. These differences are motivated by the type of financial systems of the countries (bank‐oriented and market‐oriented) and influence the capital structure indirectly through the firm‐specific variables. Overall, our results support the relevance of the differences in the capital structure choices of firms across five major European countries, and in particular, the singularity of the United Kingdom (a market‐oriented economy) as opposed to continental European countries (bank‐oriented economies).     

Co-movement of oil and stock prices in the GCC region: A wavelet analysis

This paper examines the short term and long term dependencies between stock market returns and OPEC basket oil returns for the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates) and two non-oil producing countries in the region (Egypt and Jordan), over the period 2002–2011. We utilize the wavelet coherency methodology in our empirical analyses. The empirical evidence indicates lack of market dependencies in the short term in these countries, indicating that oil and stock returns are not strongly linked in this interval. However, we show that oil returns and the stock markets returns co-move over the long term. The results also suggest that the long term dependencies are much stronger for OPEC oil returns and Jordan stock market returns relative to OPEC oil returns and Egypt stock market returns, implying a variation in the dependencies between oil prices and stock markets across countries. We further note an increasing strength in the market dependencies after 2007, signifying enhanced diversification benefit for investors in the short term relative to the long term.     

Capital accumulation and growth: a new look at the empirical evidence

Using annual data for 75 countries in the period 1960–2000, we present evidence of a positive relationship between investment as a share of gross domestic product (GDP) and the long‐run growth rate of GDP per worker. This result is robust for our full sample and for the subsample of non‐OECD countries, but not for the subsample of OECD countries. Our analysis controls for time‐invariant country‐specific heterogeneity in growth rates, and for a range of time‐varying control variables. We also address endogeneity issues, and allow for heterogeneity across countries in model parameters and for cross‐section dependence. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Individual stock sentiment beta and stock returns

Using the data in Chinese stock market, we measure the individual stock sentiment beta, which is defined as the sensitivity of individual stock returns to the individual stock sentiment changes. We demonstrate that stocks in the highest individual stock sentiment beta portfolio have significantly higher excess returns, CAPM alpha, Fama-French three-factor alpha and Fama-French five-factor alpha. Besides, we find that the high individual stock sentiment beta stocks are smaller, younger, more volatile stocks with higher price and higher market beta. After controlling for firm characteristic, the returns of High-Low individual stock sentiment beta portfolios are still significantly positive. Moreover, we show the effect of the individual stock sentiment beta on stock returns is positive and significant in different stock markets, in different sample periods, and in bull and bear market. Besides, the results of the Bayes-Stein individual stock sentiment beta are still stable.     

Does the stock market really cause unemployment? A cross-country analysis

This study examines the relationship between the stock market and unemployment in 30 advanced and 11 developing and emerging countries. The results show that the unemployment rate and stock prices are cointegrated in all country groups; further, the causality between stock prices and unemployment appears in all country groups. Specifically, I found a particularly strong and one-way causal direction from stock prices to the unemployment rate in G7 countries. There is a strong bilateral causal relationship between stock prices and unemployment for other advanced countries. However, in the 11 developing and emerging countries, the causality test results indicate a strong Granger causality from unemployment to stock prices. The results for developing and emerging countries suggest that the unemployment rate can help forecast stock prices, but not vice versa. These findings complement existing studies and deliver useful implications for investors and policymakers, and suggest some new lines for future research.     

Currency depreciation effects on ADR returns: evidence from Latin America

We use seemingly unrelated regressions (SUR) and multivariate regression models (MVRM) in a panel sample of 74 American depository receipts (ADR) programs from Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico during the period May 1994 to May 2009 to analyze the behavior of ADR returns during the 300-day period surrounding the currency crises breakdown in the originator??s country. Controlling for the underlying stock and local and host country equity indices, we find that ADRs generate significant negative abnormal returns during currency crises, due to translation exposure. Abnormal returns remain statistically significant even in crises triggered by currency depreciations as small as 3.6%. The results persist after including exchange rate returns as a control variable and after an orthogonalization procedure of exchange rate against local country indices. In agreement with ADR literature, our results show that ADR prices are determined primarily by the underlying stock, exchange rates, and host country index, in that order. Moreover, we observe how market integration has become evident in more recent times as the coefficients for the U.S. stock market have increased its contribution to ADR price discovery.     

Size and book-to-market factors in the relationship between average stock returns and average book returns: some evidence from an emerging market

The present paper examines the association between average stock returns and average book returns and addresses the question as to whether there are common size and book-to-market factors in earnings and returns. The results of the empirical research, conducted in the Athens Stock Exchange, suggest that when the sample firms are grouped into size, book-to-market portfolios stock returns properly reflect differences in the evolution of accounting profitability. Moreover, it is found that the return on investment (ROI) measure contains size and book-to-market factors analogous to the mimic risk factors inherent in stock returns, in the sense that they capture information missed by ROI.     

Exploring the firm and country determinants of the voluntary adoption of integrated reporting

Information used to manage the business and support the decision‐making of stakeholders is being subject to an evolution. In this context, traditional financial reporting is considered not sufficient anymore. This has translated into a sharp increase in the number of firms that have begun to adopt emerging reporting practices. This study aims to examine the influence that both firm‐ and country‐specific characteristics have on the voluntary uptaking of integrated reporting internationally. In order to do so, it analyses a sample of 71 international listed companies that have adopted this reporting form in 2016. The results show that firms are more likely to implement integrated reporting if they are located in countries with a higher level of corruption perception and a better risk rating and that are considered as relatively more collectivist and feminist and with a long‐term orientation. Legal system has resulted to be not significant. As for firms' characteristics, large size, profitability, market‐to‐book ratio, and the size of the board are found to be significant variables. Moreover, the results indicate that the adoption of integrated reporting is not influenced by a higher level of leverage, firm efficiency and board diversity and independence.