Computer-assisted analysis of public discourse: a case study of the precautionary principle in the US and UK press

Content analysis of newspaper publications has become a major scientific method of the analysis of public discourse. Within the framework of content analysis, we suggest a computer-assisted method to extract the most important topics of this discourse in an objective, quantifiable manner. The method combines frequency and proximity analysis of the text population, selection of the key words, text modification based on a key word dictionary, factor analysis of the modified text population, and factor interpretation. We illustrate the concept by applying the method to study the major topics discussed in the US and UK prestige press that relate to the precautionary principle. Precautionary principle is a concept of preventing environmental damage under scientific uncertainty. The analysis demonstrates the difference between the major topics of the precautionary principle discussion in the US and UK press. In the US, it revolves around an emphasis on the action on global warming, international trade on genetically modified food, environment pollution, the risks of new technologies, and cost-benefit analysis (CBA). In the UK, the major discussion topics include threats to agriculture and farmers, climate change economics, national and EU regulations, and commercial fishing. Other discussion topics, such as health and pollution, water safety regulations, meat safety and trade, and GMO regulations are shared between the countries. The US sample demonstrates more negative views towards the precautionary principle, which is presented as a threat to the US economic interests.     

Saving motives and multivariate precautionary premia

This paper extends the concept of precautionary premium to a multivariate setting so as to measure the intensity of the precautionary saving motive to protect against multivariate risks. This makes it possible to disentangle and to link the various motives of precautionary saving depending on the configuration of the risks the individual wants to protect against.     

Looking for a Guide to Protect the Environment: The Development of the Precautionary Principle

Abstract.  If the precautionary principle is to become the guide of the international community for environmental protection policies, an economic interpretation of the principle is in order. The analysis of case studies and a survey of the recent decision theoretic literature show the lack of a fully satisfactory economic model. More generally various theoretical and empirical results show that the principle cannot be assumed to apply a priori . Though it has been proposed by international treaties as a rule of thumb for situations of scientific uncertainty, the precautionary principle could actually be inefficient.     

施工企业如何加强合同风险管理

通过对施工合同中存在的建筑材料、人工费用上涨引发的成本上升、工程款支付、工程变更、违约责任等风险的分析,进而针对不同的风险采取不同的防范措施,施工单位应在合同签订时控制风险从而规避风险。     

试论电力企业财务风险防范的基本途径

电力企业是自主经营、自负盈亏的经济实体。当前，电力企业资金需求量大与资金获取能力相对软弱的矛盾，使电力企业资产负债率越来越高，让电力企业面临着巨大的财务风险。因此，防范和降低财务风险已经成为电力企业的迫切需求。文章从不同的角度对电力企业财务风险的防范措施进行了研究，以期使电力企业更健康地发展。     

企业员工培训风险及其防范策略分析

员工培训能给企业带来收益,同时也会带来一定的培训风险。通过对培训实施前、实施中和实施后三个阶段中所产生风险的主要原因进行分析,并提出了相关的防范策略。     

WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO THE EURO?

The Stability Pact ‐ intended to make EMU governments run prudent budgets ‐ is losing its credibility. This article asks the question: what will happen if national debts start to rise again and some governments then have difficulty borrowing? It suggests that there will be calls for bailout, that the EU's political structures will not cope well with the resulting arguments over which countries will pay, and that the eventual and painful result will be a return to the principle that currencies and political areas coincide.     

Why we aren't predicting a global recession

• ? Fears that the global economy is heading into a recession are rising. But while we cannot ignore the risks that a recession could be brewing, our baseline assumption is still for a modest growth slowdown from here.
• ? The global economy is in a similar position to 2012 and 2015, as mounting uncertainties dampen growth. This time, trade tensions are a high‐profile culprit rather than the possible collapse of the eurozone or a China hard landing.
• ? In the previous two cases global growth fell to around 2.5% ‐ around the rates seen in Q2 this year ‐ only to then rebound. Our baseline forecasts assume a similar mini cycle, albeit with only a modest growth rebound.
• ? We also assume that further major adverse shocks won't materialise, and that insurance policy moves by central banks will stop a plunge in investment and households from panicking.
• ? Still, recession fears should be taken seriously ‐ slowdowns can become self‐perpetuating. Once annual GDP growth has fallen by over 1ppt from its peak, the eventual decline typically ends up being much larger ‐ of the seven growth slowdowns since the late 1970s where annual growth slowed by over 1ppt ‐ four resulted in either a global recession or only a narrow escape from one.
• ? With US‐China tensions unlikely to recede and factors like the US yield curve inversion adding to the air of gloom, the latest downturn could gain momentum.
• ? Although reduced macro volatility and anchored inflation have made it easier for policymakers to deliver soft landings, the effectiveness of monetary policy has waned. And with China no longer acting as spender of last resort, it's vital that governments in advanced economies stand ready to pick up the slack

     

清单计价模式下招投标阶段工程造价之控制

随着工程量清单计价模式下招投标制度的推行,招投标阶段对工程建设造价控制的作用也随之凸显出来;针对建设各方对招投标阶段工程造价控制的认识偏差,以招投标对工程造价的影响为出发点,指出了招投标过程中造价控制的关键点及相关风险,并给出了相应的防范和控制措施。     

AUTHORITY: A MONOPOLY RUNNING AMOK IN BUSINESS1

This article show why Authority ‐ in the form of the Competition Commission ‐ produces harmful consequences when it seeks to impose idealised notions of competition on real‐world markets. The recent anti‐trust measures taken against Microsoft are a classic example of such regulatory failure. Paradoxically, monopolistic behaviour is characteristic of the provision of services by the public sector but draws no response from those authorities charged with curbing monopoly power.     

企业筹资的风险特征及成因分析

风险伴随着企业筹资管理的整个过程,是对未来不确定性的预估.在市场经济条件下,企业面临资金运营选择的同时也面临筹资风险的威胁,对筹资边际风险与筹资边际收益的衡量是企业筹资管理效益的基本原则.随着企业组织规模日益扩大和市场竞争不断加剧,筹资规划考验着现代企业的经营管理体系.面对筹资风险,分析筹资风险的各种特征及其成因是企业筹资规划的重要课题     

Precautionary motives and portfolio decisions

This paper studies the empirical relevance of precautionary and other motives for household portfolio behaviour using recent panel data from the Netherlands. Dutch households' portfolios exhibit low degrees of risk taking and diversification. It is possible that this is the outcome of a rational, precautionary response to unavoidable exposure to background risk (stemming from the labour market or health conditions, etc.). We consider as alternative explanations liquidity needs and habits. The endogenous variable is the fraction of clearly safe in total financial assets at the household level. Parametric and semi‐parametric censored regression models for pooled cross‐sections and random and fixed effects models for panel data show that both heteroscedasticity and unobserved heterogeneity are of major importance in the data. With subjective indicators of income uncertainty we find a limited role for precautionary motives. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

增补预防性储蓄的托宾-索洛模型

非预期的预防性储蓄通过资产替代产生稳态名义货币增长率(或稳态通货膨胀率)对稳态人均资本(或稳态人均产出)的非线性门槛效应。门槛的临界值是非预期预防性储蓄与实际货币增加量比率的递减函数。非线性机制取决于非预期预防性储蓄与实际货币增加量比率和人均实际货币余额-人均资本比率与通货膨胀率、人均资本边际产出的相关性。     

Precautionary and Entrepreneurial Savings: New Evidence from German Households*

Various studies interpret the positive correlation between income risk and wealth as evidence of significant precautionary savings. However, these high estimates emerge from pooling non‐entrepreneurs and entrepreneurs, without controlling for heterogeneity. This article provides evidence for Germany based on representative panel data that includes private wealth balance sheets. Entrepreneurs, who face high income risk, hold more wealth than employees, but this tendency is not because of precautionary motives. Instead, they appear to save more for their old age, because they are usually not covered by statutory pension insurance. The analysis accounts for endogeneity in entrepreneurial choice and heterogeneous risk attitudes.     

Has the ECB increased interest rates too soon?

Even though the Eurozone recovery is far from entrenched, the ECB decided to raise interest rates towards the end of 2005 and another hike is expected soon. Those in the ECB who have been looking for a reason to start tightening for some time can point to an inflation rate that remains stubbornly above target as a justification. In this article we find that the price rises of non‐energy industrial goods ‐ particularly those for clothing and footwear ‐ have remained very sticky when compared to the deflation seen in countries like the UK. A lack of competitive forces may be an issue ‐ the impact of China and India on goods prices does not seem to be fully feeding through to consumers. And weak productivity in the distribution sector may have prevented retailers from driving down prices to the same extent as in the UK. Does the current ECB action form the start of a prolonged tightening cycle as seen in the US? Despite worries over asset price and credit growth ‐ and here we argue that the ECB's reliance on monetary aggregates as a signal of impending inflation is misguided ‐ there is a possibility that the ECB has acted at the same time that inflation is finally set to subside. Consequently, we expect a "wait and see" approach to further moves, and unless growth comes in much stronger than the 2.2% we expect in 2006, rates should end the year at around 2½%.     

BOT项目中风险分担模型研究

本文从BOT项目中风险分担机制的原则出发,论述了在政府规制的框架下就风险分担问题制定参与约束和激励相容约束的必要性,提出内部风险代理的风险分担机制,并建立模型进行分析,力图使BOT项目的风险分担计划可接受和可管理。     

预防性持有、攀比效应与亚洲经济体外汇储备囤积——基于1980～2009年的数据分析

亚洲经济体持有的外汇储备远超出了经验值范围。亚洲经济体为何囤积外汇储备?本文构建面板数据模型剖析亚洲经济体囤积外汇储备的动机。实证结果表明,亚洲经济体外汇储备囤积行为存在着几种动机:从存量上看,交易性动机和基于预防资本外逃的预防性动机作用最大,但前者比较稳定,后者是驱动外汇储备变动的最重要因素;攀比动机和基于预防经常项目波动的预防性动机存在着上升的趋势;持储动机在不同发展程度和不同汇率制度经济体中也存在着显著的差异性。     

PRECAUTIONARY SAVING: A REVIEW OF THE EMPIRICAL LITERATURE

Standard macroeconomic models show that uncertainty plays a significant role in consumption and saving decisions under rather mild conditions, namely the convexity of the marginal utility of consumption. Increased uncertainty generates a positive extra saving, the so‐called ‘precautionary saving’. Although this hypothesis has been tested by a large number of authors, both at macro and micro level, the empirical results are not conclusive, and the main conclusion than can be drawn is that there is neither consensus on the intensity of that motive for saving, nor on the most appropriate measure of uncertainty. This paper provides a comprehensive review of the empirical literature discussing the main controversial issues and the different approaches followed by the studies addressing empirically the test of precautionary saving.     

CAUSES AND EFFECTS OF CORRUPTION: WHAT HAS PAST DECADE'S EMPIRICAL RESEARCH TAUGHT US? A SURVEY

Corruption has fierce impacts on economic and societal development and is subject to a vast range of institutional, jurisdictional, societal, and economic conditions. It is this paper's aim to provide a reassessment and a comprehensive state ‐ of ‐ the ‐ art survey of existing literature on corruption and its causes and effects. A particularly strong focus is put on presenting and discussing insights resulting from empirical research and contrasting recent with older findings.     

Consumers alone shouldn't trigger the next recession

• ? If consumers in advanced economies were to hike their savings and rein in their discretionary spending in response to fears about the economy, we project global GDP growth in 2020 would slow to a subdued 2.1% (below our 2.5% baseline forecast), but the world economy would avoid a recession.
• ? The risks of rising precautionary savings aren't uniform across the advanced economies. For instance, the UK, Australia, Canada and Japan look particularly vulnerable to slowing retail sales, which could trigger a stronger downturn in those countries.
• ? Economies with the highest rates of consumer debt are also likely to be more at risk to weaker discretionary spending. In this respect, Australia, the Netherlands and Canada stand out the most.