论特殊天气测报工作步骤

文章介绍了地面测报遇到突发性的特殊天气(如冰雹、大风、龙卷等)时的工作步骤,目的是为了减少观测员测报特殊天气时所出现的差错。     

恶劣天气下气象测报问题及应对措施

气象预报是人们各项经济活动的决策依据，气象预报的准确程度同人们的生活息息相关，而冰雪、雷电、大雾及暴雨等恶劣天气对气象测报有极大的影响，因此探究恶劣天气下气象测报问题具有非常重要的意义。本文主要阐述了在恶劣天气下常见的气象测报问题及处理办法，并总结了相关的应对措施，以期有效提高观测质量，保证地面气象测报的准确性。     

汛期地面测报工作浅析

在汛期,天气复杂多变,地面测报人员若不具备全面的实际工作经验,对突发性的、灾害性的天气应急能力不强,较易出现各种错误。本文针对本地区汛期常见的雷暴、强降水、大风、冰雹天气现象,浅要分析了汛期地面测报人员的注意事项。最后,概述了汛期其他天气状况下的工作要点,希望有助于提高地面测报工作的业务质量。     

病虫害测报体系建设初探

病虫测报是植保工作的重点和基础,如何更好地发展病虫测报对于我们植保系统更好地开展技术服务有着决定性作用。作者在近些年来通过实际工作得出,要想加强测报体系建设,必须提高测报人员的素质,重视病虫测报应用,测报工具精确,能够及时准确地将测报数据发布。     

论如何提高地面气象测报工作质量

文章根据地面气象测报工作现状,结合笔者多年测报工作经验,谈几点提高地面测报工作质量的体会。     

论如何提高地面气象测报工作质量

文章根据地面气象测报工作现状,结合笔者多年测报工作经验,谈几点提高地面测报工作质量的体会。     

论如何提高地面气象测报工作质量

文章根据地面气象测报工作现状,结合笔者多年测报工作经验,谈几点提高地面测报工作质量的体会。     

浅谈水电厂水情测报系统安全运行管理的新思路

随着防洪度汛、水电厂运行调度等压力的不断增加,人们对水情自动测报系统的安全问题越来越重视。文章基于多年水情自动测报系统应用、运行管理的实践经验,从水情自动测报系统安全建设与其安全运行管理方面进行了分析,以期在实践中起到借鉴的作用。     

粮食品质测报工作问题的几点思考

粮食品质测报工作对引导粮食种植,指导农民选择优良品种,促进农民增产增收具有重要意义。该工作可保证粮食质量及品质稳定,为粮食生产和加工服务,为各级政府掌握粮食质量信息、制定宏观政策提供重要依据,为粮食企业收购储存销售等经营活动的决策提供质量信息。本文分析粮食品质测报工作存在的问题,提出提高粮食测报工作水平的对策,以为粮食品质测报工作提供参考。     

浅谈如何利用科技手段提高地面测报工作质量

地面测报工作是气象部门的基础工作,随着科技的进步,技术的提高。地面测报工作的自动化程度也越来越高,如何利用科技手段提高地面测报的质量是气象部门重要的课题。     

江苏吴江“5·27”雷灾事故分析与讨论

通过对2008年5月27日发生在吴江市的雷灾事故的现场调查,结合当时天气情况及闪电分布情况,分析了该事故的成因。据此,得出在吴江市特殊的地理环境下发生雷灾的主要原因,并提出防护措施。     

Data preprocessing and quantile regression for probabilistic load forecasting in the GEFCom2017 final match

Team QUINKAN competed in the GEFCom2017 final match of hierarchical probabilistic load forecasting by adopting the quantile regression method using the R package quantreg. The weather stations were clustered into 11 groups, from which an optimal one was chosen for each load meter using the boosting method. The load meter records were cleaned and/or supplemented by various methods in order to secure robust quantile predictions. The variation in the regression formulas was kept as small as possible by introducing measures for suppressing prediction instability, although special formulas were employed for loading meters that were of an industrial nature. Several procedures were applied to help improve the accuracy, such as the smoothing of season transitions, coarse graining of the relative humidity, the use of load-oriented day-type definition, the averaging of weather data, and outlier removal.     

Broadcast meteorology and the supply of weather forecasts: an exploration

Advertising imperfectly translates viewer preferences into demand for programming, and evaluating the quality of news products is difficult for consumers. Consequently the ability of market forces to supply high quality news is a subject of continuing debate. This paper offers new evidence on the supply of news by examining the investments by television stations in weather coverage. Weather forecasts meet the classic economic definition of a public good, yet television stations across the U.S. undertake extensive efforts to provide viewers with weather forecasts. Stations in markets with a higher incidence of severe weather, particularly a higher tornado rate, make significantly greater investments in their own Doppler weather radars and weathercasters certified by the American Meteorological Society. Since television weather can help save lives during severe weather, the supply of TV weather coverage is at least approximately efficient.     

A refined parametric model for short term load forecasting

We present a refined parametric model for forecasting electricity demand which performed particularly well in the recent Global Energy Forecasting Competition (GEFCom 2012). We begin by motivating and presenting a simple parametric model, treating the electricity demand as a function of the temperature and day of the data. We then set out a series of refinements of the model, explaining the rationale for each, and using the competition scores to demonstrate that each successive refinement step increases the accuracy of the model’s predictions. These refinements include combining models from multiple weather stations, removing outliers from the historical data, and special treatments of public holidays.     

电视气象预报节目质量定量考核体系探析

随着电视气象预报节目不断增多,质量问题时有出现。为提高节目质量,对节目质量考核势在必行。文章从节目制作角度分析了电视气象预报节目的特点,并在此基础上提出了一个主客观相结合的节目质量定量考核体系。在该体系中,对节目采取分项评分的方法,并考虑节目中预报内容和附加内容时长不断变化的特点,对这两项内容采取动态评分。此项研究为电视气象预报节目质量定量考核业务使用提供参考。     

Analyzing the volume and nature of emergency medical calls during severe weather events using regression methodologies

An effective emergency medical service (EMS) response to emergency medical calls during extreme weather events is a critical public service. Nearly all models for allocating EMS resources focus on normal operating conditions. However, public health risks become even more critical during extreme weather events, and hence, EMS systems must consider additional needs that arise during weather events to effectively respond to and treat patients. This paper seeks to characterize how the volume and nature of EMS calls are affected during extreme weather events with a particular focus on emergency preparedness. In contrast to other studies on disaster relief, where the focus is on delivery of temporary commodities, we focus on the delivery of routine emergency services during blizzards and hurricane evacuations. The dependence of emergency service quality on weather conditions is explored through a case study using real-world data from Hanover County, Virginia. The results suggest that whether it is snowing is significant in nearly all of the regression models. Variables associated with increased highway congestion, which become important during hurricane evacuations, are positively correlated with an increased call volume and the likelihood of high-risk calls. The analysis can aid public safety leaders in preparing for extreme weather events.     

人工影响天气固定作业点标准化建设方案设计

现人工影响天气地面固定作业点标准化建设没有行业标准。文章根据基层人工影响天气地面固定作业点现状和人工影响天气工作发展需要,就如何进行基层人工影响天气地面固定作业点标准化建设设计,阐述了自己的观点。     

自动气象站日常维护及常见故障判断处理

本文主要以CAWS600型地面监测自动气象站为例,总结归纳出自动气象站日常维护及常见故障处理。     

Using weather ensemble predictions in electricity demand forecasting

Weather forecasts are an important input to many electricity demand forecasting models. This study investigates the use of weather ensemble predictions in electricity demand forecasting for lead times from 1 to 10 days ahead. A weather ensemble prediction consists of 51 scenarios for a weather variable. We use these scenarios to produce 51 scenarios for the weather-related component of electricity demand. The results show that the average of the demand scenarios is a more accurate demand forecast than that produced using traditional weather forecasts. We use the distribution of the demand scenarios to estimate the demand forecast uncertainty. This compares favourably with estimates produced using univariate volatility forecasting methods.     

雾霾之痛——绿色物流运输模式选择研究

物流是连接生产和消费的重要社会活动,运输是其重要的一个环节,发展和利用好绿色物流运输对于雾霾的防范和治理都有着重要作用。文章以我国雾霾天气的产生原因和现状为出发点,试图从绿色物流的角度去寻找合适的运输模式,从而以达到缓解雾霾天气的效果。