PRECAUTIONARY SAVING: A REVIEW OF THE EMPIRICAL LITERATURE

Standard macroeconomic models show that uncertainty plays a significant role in consumption and saving decisions under rather mild conditions, namely the convexity of the marginal utility of consumption. Increased uncertainty generates a positive extra saving, the so‐called ‘precautionary saving’. Although this hypothesis has been tested by a large number of authors, both at macro and micro level, the empirical results are not conclusive, and the main conclusion than can be drawn is that there is neither consensus on the intensity of that motive for saving, nor on the most appropriate measure of uncertainty. This paper provides a comprehensive review of the empirical literature discussing the main controversial issues and the different approaches followed by the studies addressing empirically the test of precautionary saving.     

Why the UK saving ratio is unlikely to flip anytime soon

• ? With inflation down and wages rising, the outlook for consumer spending in the UK is brightening. But should households opt to boost savings, the mood could darken.
• ? We think a meaningful rise in the saving ratio from its recent record lows is unlikely, though. Austerity may be easing, but the drag from fiscal policy is still set to limit households’ savings resources, while the durability of the current expansion may reduce the motivation for precautionary saving.
• ? What's more, any rise in interest rates on savings accounts will probably be even slower than the modest pace we expect for Bank Rate. And with the demographic shift toward an older, less thrifty, population, the appetite of households to save looks set to remain subdued.

     

Health insurance and savings over the life cycle—a semiparametric smooth coefficient estimation

Individuals save for future uncertain health care expenses. This is less efficient than pooling health risk through insurance. The provision of comprehensive health insurance may raise welfare by providing the missing market to smooth out consumption through the life cycle. We employ a semiparametric smooth coefficient model to examine the effects of the introduction of the National Health Insurance in Taiwan in 1995 on savings and consumption over the life cycle. The idea is to estimate the coefficients of health insurance which vary with age. Our results suggest that younger households are more sensitive to the risk reductions, and that they demonstrate a greater response in the reduction of their precautionary saving. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

应用缓冲储备模型实证检验我国居民的储蓄行为

通过应用缓冲储备模型，实证检验我国居民的教育、医疗、住房等开支的不确定性与储蓄之间的相关性，我们发现，我国居民的预防性储蓄行为不仅显著，而且以目标储蓄率为被解释变量的模型，能够比以储蓄水平为被解释变量的模型更好地解释我国居民的“预防性储蓄”动机。建立完善的医疗保障体系、改革教育体制是降低我国巨额储蓄的必经之路。     

Saving motives and multivariate precautionary premia

This paper extends the concept of precautionary premium to a multivariate setting so as to measure the intensity of the precautionary saving motive to protect against multivariate risks. This makes it possible to disentangle and to link the various motives of precautionary saving depending on the configuration of the risks the individual wants to protect against.     

DID INEQUALITY CAUSE THE U.S. FINANCIAL CRISIS?

In his widely discussed book ‘Fault Lines’ (2010), Raghuram Rajan argues that many low and middle income consumers have reduced their saving and increased debt since income inequality started to soar in the United States in the early 1980s. This has temporarily kept private consumption and employment high, but it also contributed to the creation of a credit bubble. This surge in household indebtedness turned out to be unsustainable in the financial crisis starting in 2007. Although Rajan and others emphasize the role of government in promoting credit to those households with declining relative (permanent) incomes, other strands of the literature have focused more explicitly on the implications of rising inequality for aggregate demand and households’ demand for credit. These differences in emphasis may explain why the literature on the inequality‐crisis nexus appears somewhat disparate, even though the various strands are far from mutually exclusive but rather complement each other. We therefore place the ‘Rajan hypothesis’ in the context of competing theories of consumption, and survey the empirical literature on the effects of inequality on household behaviour. We conclude that the empirical evidence calls for a renaissance of the relative income hypothesis of consumption.     

Macroeconomic Effects of Precautionary Demand for Oil

We evaluate the macroeconomic effects of shocks specific to the oil market, which mainly reflect fluctuations in precautionary demand for oil driven by uncertainty about future supplies. A two‐stage identification procedure is used. First, daily changes in the futures–spot price spread proxy for precautionary demand shocks and the path of oil prices is estimated. This information is then exploited to restrict the oil price response in a vector autoregression. Impulse responses suggest that such shocks reduce output and raise prices. Historical decomposition shows that they contributed significantly to the US recessions in the 1990s and in the early 2000s, but not to the most recent slump. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Precautionary motives and portfolio decisions

This paper studies the empirical relevance of precautionary and other motives for household portfolio behaviour using recent panel data from the Netherlands. Dutch households' portfolios exhibit low degrees of risk taking and diversification. It is possible that this is the outcome of a rational, precautionary response to unavoidable exposure to background risk (stemming from the labour market or health conditions, etc.). We consider as alternative explanations liquidity needs and habits. The endogenous variable is the fraction of clearly safe in total financial assets at the household level. Parametric and semi‐parametric censored regression models for pooled cross‐sections and random and fixed effects models for panel data show that both heteroscedasticity and unobserved heterogeneity are of major importance in the data. With subjective indicators of income uncertainty we find a limited role for precautionary motives. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

ARE EMPIRICAL MEASURES OF MACROECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY ALIKE?

Abstract There is a plethora of time series measures of uncertainty for inflation and real output growth in empirical studies but little is known whether they are comparable to the uncertainty measure reported by individual forecasters in the survey of professional forecasters. Are these two measures of uncertainty inherently distinct? This paper shows that, compared with many uncertainty proxies produced by time series models, the use of real‐time data with fixed‐sample recursive estimation of an asymmetric bivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model yields inflation uncertainty estimates which resemble the survey measure. There is, however, overwhelming evidence that many of the time series measures of growth uncertainty exceed the level of uncertainty obtained from survey measure. Our results highlight the relative merits of using different methods in modelling macroeconomic uncertainty which are useful for empirical researchers.     

Prudence and precautionary saving

Households save income for various reasons, including the need to plan for the future, the intention to leave a bequest, and the desire to guard against unforeseen expenditures and income fluctuations. Although it is widely believed that prudent individuals engage in precautionary saving, the extent of such saving is not well understood. This paper develops a model of saving with an explicit role for the Leland-Kimball measure of prudence. Estimation of the model using household-level data from Italy suggests an average value of relative prudence near 4 or 5, with approximately 15 to 36 percent of total saving being precautionary. The authors are grateful to an anonymous referee for helpful comments.     

When do investors reward acquisitions and divestitures? The contrasting implications of normative and behavioral economic theories

We evaluate whether a contingency theory that combines a signaling hypothesis with behavioral economic theory can elucidate the discrepancy between positive expected returns to acquisitions and divestitures and the mixed‐to‐negative investor reactions observed in practice. We argue that, because of bounded rationality, uncertainty avoidance, and inertia, major organizational change is generally motivated by the detection of problems in an organization. Accordingly, although investors may view acquisitions and divestitures as positive corrective measures for low performers, such initiatives by high performers often signal problems that were heretofore unknown to the market. We contrast our results with predictions based on normative theories.     

Minimax‐Optimal Strength of Statistical Evidence for a Composite Alternative Hypothesis

While the likelihood ratio measures statistical support for an alternative hypothesis about a single parameter value, it is undefined for an alternative hypothesis that is composite in the sense that it corresponds to multiple parameter values. Regarding the parameter of interest as a random variable enables measuring support for a composite alternative hypothesis without requiring the elicitation or estimation of a prior distribution, as described below. In this setting, in which parameter randomness represents variability rather than uncertainty, the ideal measure of the support for one hypothesis over another is the difference in the posterior and prior log‐odds. That ideal support may be replaced by any measure of support that, on a per‐observation basis, is asymptotically unbiased as a predictor of the ideal support. Such measures of support are easily interpreted and, if desired, can be combined with any specified or estimated prior probability of the null hypothesis. Two qualifying measures of support are minimax‐optimal. An application to proteomics data indicates that a modification of optimal support computed from data for a single protein can closely approximate the estimated difference in posterior and prior odds that would be available with the data for 20 proteins.     

Consumer demand

Consumer spending has expanded consistently for seven quarters. The initial momentum in 2012 came from a pickup in real income growth, driven by strong job creation, lower inflation and the generous uprating of social benefits. This momentum appears to have stalled in 2013H1, although the picture is complicated by higher earners having delaying income to take advantage of the reduction in the top rate of income tax from 50% to 45%. Yet despite the slowdown in real incomes, spending has held up because confidence has improved and households have reduced their precautionary saving; the savings ratio fell back from 6.8% in 2012 to average 5.2% in 2013H1…     

Interactions between Preemptive Competition and a Financing Constraint

We develop an investment and financing model in which two identical firms compete for first‐mover advantage in an opportunity to invest. We investigate the interactions between preemptive competition and a financing constraint. We show that a medium‐intensity financing constraint can play a positive role in mitigating the preemptive competition and improving firm value in equilibrium. This positive effect is in sharp contrast with the conventional negative effects of the financing constraint. The positive effect is strong, especially for IT venture businesses because of the following characteristics: severe preemptive competition, a lack of internal funds, high uncertainty regarding future project value, and high bankruptcy costs.     

增补预防性储蓄的托宾-索洛模型

非预期的预防性储蓄通过资产替代产生稳态名义货币增长率(或稳态通货膨胀率)对稳态人均资本(或稳态人均产出)的非线性门槛效应。门槛的临界值是非预期预防性储蓄与实际货币增加量比率的递减函数。非线性机制取决于非预期预防性储蓄与实际货币增加量比率和人均实际货币余额-人均资本比率与通货膨胀率、人均资本边际产出的相关性。     

Explaining Sales Pay Strategy Using Agency,Transaction Cost and Resource Dependence Theories*

ABSTRACT The purpose of this study is to investigate, using data gathered from 325 French‐Canadian organizations, the influence of key constructs related to agency, transaction cost and resource dependence theories on the proportion of salary in sales compensation. Usefulness analysis showed that performance information (9 per cent), uncertainty (8 per cent) and dependence resource (5 per cent) constructs have a significant incremental contribution to sales compensation. Regarding specific hypothesis tests, results of full model show that the capacity to observe behaviour, team sales and financial resources offered are associated with an increased use of salary pay. In contrast, adaptability of product/service‐related resources, salesforce experience and high marginal salesforce productivity are associated with decreased use of the salary component. However, the results of full model have failed to support the direction or influence of relationships between programmability, span of control, market and selling uncertainty, the predominance of salespeople and TCA measures on proportion of salary. The results support the argument that integration of multiple theoretical perspectives better explains pay policy.     

The relationship between forecast dispersion and forecast uncertainty: Evidence from a survey data—arch model

This paper examines empirically the relationship between measures of forecast dispersion and forecast uncertainty from data on inflation expectations from the Livingston survey series and the Survey Research Center (SRC) survey series. Because the survey series do not provide probabilistic forecasts of inflation, we derive measures of inflation uncertainty by modelling the conditional variance of the inflation forecast errors from the survey series as an autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (ARCH) process. The analysis is complicated by the fact that the overlap of forecast horizons for the survey series does not preclude the model's disturbance terms from displaying autocorrelation, and also places a restriction on the specification for the ARCH measures of inflation uncertainty. We estimate the model using Hansen's (1982) generalized method of moments (GMM) procedure to account for the presence of serial correlation and conditional heteroscedasticity in the disturbance terms. The results generally support the hypothesis that the measures of forecast dispersion across survey respondents are positively and statistically significantly associated with the measures of inflation uncertainty. However, the appropriateness of using forecast dispersion measures as proxies for inflation uncertainty is sensitive to the choice of the survey series.     

What are the macroeconomic effects of high‐frequency uncertainty shocks?

This paper evaluates the effects of high‐frequency uncertainty shocks on a set of low‐frequency macroeconomic variables representative of the US economy. Rather than estimating models at the same common low frequency, we use recently developed econometric models, which allow us to deal with data of different sampling frequencies. We find that credit and labor market variables react the most to uncertainty shocks in that they exhibit a prolonged negative response to such shocks. When looking at detailed investment subcategories, our estimates suggest that the most irreversible investment projects are the most affected by uncertainty shocks. We also find that the responses of macroeconomic variables to uncertainty shocks are relatively similar across single‐frequency and mixed‐frequency data models, suggesting that the temporal aggregation bias is not acute in this context.     

Precautionary behavior and consumer information: A Markov process approach

This paper explores the role of consumer confidence in the equilibrium of a dynamic macroeconomic growth model with rational expectations. Consumers face an uncertain future income stream due to a Markov stochastic process that affects production. Changes in the properties of this process change consumer information sets and optimal policies in the rational expectations format. Increases in “persistence” in the shock process are considered; this is identified with the consumer's subjective assessment of future economic conditions. Two cases are considered: where either good or bad states of the process are more likely to persist into the future, and where bad states persist unconditionally at the expense of good. Consistent with earlier treatments of savings under uncertainty (Barsky, Mankiw and Zeldes 1986, and Skinner 1988), the consumer's response to increased income uncertainty is to exhibit precautionary saving behavior. The infinite-horizon growth model format used offers significant improvement over other finite-horizon life cycle models. Specifically, the model is a full general equilibrium model and the solutions are rational expectations solutions. The technique also is easily adapted to other recursive decision problems under uncertainty.     

Smoking Habits: Like Father,Like Son,Like Mother,Like Daughter?*

We use instrumental variable methods to investigate whether the impact of parental smoking habits on their children's smoking decisions is a causal one. We find suggestive evidence of same‐sex role models in two‐parent households: mothers play a more crucial role in determining their daughters’ smoking decisions, whereas fathers’ smoking habits are primarily imitated by their sons. This same‐sex parent–child link is no longer at play for teenagers living in single‐mother households, for whom the influence of their only cohabiting parent turns out to be predominant independently of gender.