经济转型中的失衡与再平衡

“十二五”时期,我国经济发展的内外环境将发生重大变化。“欧美消费一中国制造”的全球经济增长模式正逐步改变,世界金融体系、国际产业链结构也将面临新的调整。同时,国内资源环境约束不断强化,发展不平衡、不协调、不可持续问题将日益突出。在“十二五”期间,要以加快转变发展方式为主线,努力推动经济结构战略性调整,采取有效措施解决经济发展过程中的六大“过度依赖”问题,实现经济协调、平稳、可持续发展。     

为专号题词

这次中国发展高层论坛的主题是:“迈向新增长方式的中国”。确定这样的主题,是因为:在中国经济发展和改革的新阶段,面临着资源与环境的压力、地区之间和城乡之间发展不平衡、社会转型期的复杂社会矛盾,以及体制改革和制度建设中的繁重任务这样一系列严峻的挑战,推进经济增长方式转变是中国实现全面、协调、可持续发展的必由之路。论坛围绕中国经济增长方式转变展开的广泛深入的讨论是很有意义的。     

投资强劲促发展 消费提升需努力——辽宁省三大需求现状分析

“十五”以来，辽宁省国民经济发展势头良好，呈现出快速发展、稳中有升的态势，但制约全省经济快速发展的结构性、机制性矛盾依然存在。从需求角度来看，在投资、消费、进出口共同拉动经济增长的同时，高投资并没有带来应有的消费增长，消费需求对经济的推动力不足，高投资低消费经济增长方式，成为亟需采取有力措施解决的焦点问题。这关系到全省能否理顺“三大需求”与经济增长的关系，加快转变经济发展方式，提高发展质量，切实将全省社会经济转入全面协调可持续发展的轨道。     

政府转移支付对农村居民家庭消费的影响研究

全面扩大内需是构建“双循环”新发展格局的重中之重,而政府转移支付是提振消费的关键政策工具。立足于政府转移支付的“收入效应”和“再分配效应”,选用2014—2018年CFPS(中国家庭追踪调查)农村样本数据,实证检验了政府转移支付对微观个体消费总量和结构的影响,研究发现:政府转移支付促进了居民家庭消费支出增加,但这一正向影响在中西部地区不明显;过度依赖政府转移支付不利于居民家庭消费水平的改善,两者之间存在“倒U型”关系,且转移支付在东部地区更容易对消费产生负面影响;政府转移支付主要增加了居民家庭用于发展享受型消费的支出,推动了消费结构的优化升级。     

中央对地方转移支付的经济发展不平衡效应研究——基于省际面板数据的经验分析

基于2000—2016年中国省际面板数据,运用系统GMM方法实证研究中央对地方转移支付的经济发展不平衡效应,结果表明：（1）从总体上看,中央对地方转移支付的经济发展不平衡效应显著为正,即它加剧了地方经济发展不平衡程度。（2）从分地区来看,转移支付显著降低了西部地区的经济发展不平衡指数,而东部和中部地区转移支付的经济发展不平衡效应则显著为正。（3）将转移支付划分为一般性、专项和返还性三类,进一步分析不同类别转移支付对地区经济发展不平衡的影响发现,一般性转移支付显著降低了经济发展不平衡指数,返还性收入则扩大了经济发展差距,专项转移支付的经济发展不平衡效应存在明显的地区差异。（4）从不同类别的不平衡指数来看,中央对地方转移支付显著提高了中部地区的组内发展不平衡程度以及东部和中部地区的组间发展不平衡程度,缩小了西部地区中心、外围城市之间的经济发展差距。     

中国地区经济增长与能源消费强度差异分析

这篇文章的论证结构是先假设我国西部与东部地区的能源消费强度差异和西部与东部地区人均GDP差异存在一定的函数关系,然后同其他回归变量一同验证我国东西部的能源消费和人均GDP之间的关系,并通过使用面板数据计量经济学模型进行实证估计。政府要鼓励和引导各地区充分利用能源禀赋以及能源利用效率方面的差异进行合作,走能源节约型的可持续发展的区域平衡增长道路。     

从消费结构变动趋势看支柱产业的培育

目前，我国经济增长方式已由传统的计划经济条件下的供给决定型向市场经济条件下的需求导向型转变。供给的增长及结构的变化都必须以满足需求为目标，在城纪居民生活水平由温饱向小康转变阶段，居民消费需求的适度增长既是现阶段经济增长的主要目标，又是牵动经济增长的基本力量。因此，研究消费结构的变动趋势，对于支柱产业的确定有着重要的意义．生产是为了消费，消费的实现又促进生产的发展，每一次消出革命都是消费需求结构急速变动的升级换代。目前，城市居民正处于一个以千元消费级向万元消费组跃升之前的积累准备期。第一次消费革命…     

消费金融驱动城镇居民消费升级研究——基于结构与质的多重响应

将消费金融研究范畴界定为保险、消费信贷、储蓄、投资四个方面，认为消费金融通过配置效应、融通效应、财富效应、流动效应促进消费结构的转变与消费质量的提升，在消费结构与质量的多重响应中居民消费得以升级。在理论分析基础上，选取2000—2014年境内30个省、自治区、直辖市的面板数据对消费金融促进城镇居民消费进行实证研究，结果表明：从消费结构看，消费金融较为明显地促进了我国城镇居民消费结构由低级的食品、衣着向高级的交通通信等发展；从消费升级率看，对消费升级贡献由大到小依次是投资、保险、储蓄、消费信贷，但消费信贷的统计结果不显著；分区域的实证结果显示，保险和投资对东部发达地区的居民消费贡献最大，对西部欠发达地区居民贡献最小，呈现东中西的“阶梯式差异”，欠发达地区消费升级较发达地区更依赖于传统的储蓄这一金融活动。     

全要素生产率与区域经济发展不平衡 ——基于资本存量再测算的视角

本文分别从生产函数与资本折旧率选择的角度对全要素生产率进行了理论分析与实际测算，以全国和三大区域为研究对象，讨论经济发展质量与区域经济发展不平衡之间的影响效应。研究发现：第一，中国区域经济发展不平衡与全要素生产率之间存在弱线性反向、强非线性的变动关系，全要素生产率的提升虽能有效缓解区域有效发展不平衡，但这种关系存在一定的阈值效应。第二，二者的影响效应呈现出地域差异性和动态演变性：2012年之前，东部地区经济发展不平衡程度具有逐年递减的态势，中、西部地区存在波动增加的趋势；2012年之后，东部地区经济发展不平衡程度趋于平缓，而中、西部地区呈现逐年递减的态势。总体而言，东部地区经济发展不平衡程度低于中、西部地区，而区域间经济发展质量的差异是引起该现象产生的主要原因。     

人力资本结构优化与地区经济高质量增长

构建中介效应模型实证检验人力资本结构对中国经济增长质量的影响路径,并进行了地区异质性和分维度异质性分析,研究发现：（1）相较于人力资本存量,人力资本结构优化更有利于地区经济增长质量的提升。（2）人力资本结构优化对中国经济增长质量有显著的促进作用,且此种作用在东部地区更加明显。（3）人力资本结构优化对经济增长质量的过程与结果指数均有正向影响,地区人力资本结构高级化水平对经济增长质量过程指数的促进作用大于对其结果指数的促进作用。（4）人力资本结构会通过产业结构与技术结构对经济增长质量产生促进作用,且产业结构升级的中介效应大于技术结构升级带来的中介效应。     

Incumplimiento del salario mínimo en Europa central y oriental

En este estudio se analiza el incumplimiento del salario mínimo durante el periodo 2003–2012 en diez países de Europa central y oriental con salario mínimo obligatorio nacional. A partir de los datos de EU‐SILC y la metodología propuesta por Bhorat, Kanbur y Mayet (2013), se cuantifica la incidencia y magnitud del incumplimiento. Se realizan análisis de regresión sobre determinantes individuales, laborales y macroeconómicos. Aunque la incidencia permanece relativamente baja, los trabajadores a los que se dirigen las políticas de salario mínimo parecen los más expuestos a su incumplimiento. Con el tiempo, una mayor incidencia se asocia a una razón más alta entre salario mínimo y salario medio.     

Cultural Economy Planning in Creative Cities: Discourse and Practice

While a growing body of research analyses the functional mechanisms of the cultural or creative economy, there has been little attention devoted to understanding how local governments translate this work into policy. Moreover, research in this vein focuses predominately on Richard Florida's creative class thesis rather than considering the wider body of work that may influence policy. This article seeks to develop a deeper understanding of how municipalities conceptualize and plan for the cultural economy through the lens of two cities held up as model ‘creative cities’ — Austin, Texas and Toronto, Ontario. The work pays particular attention to how the cities adopt and adapt leading theories, strategies and discourses of the cultural economy. While policy documents indicate that the cities embrace the creative city model, in practice agencies tend to adapt conventional economic development strategies for cultural economy activity and appropriate the language of the creative city for multiple purposes.     

Input/output ranges and performance: an examination of US machine tool producers

Despite the establishment of high-tech multinational enterprises (MNEs) in Ireland since the late 1950s, the country did not succeed in closing the technological gap with most of its EU counterparts. The weak National System of Innovation (NSI), and in particular low business and government R&D levels, combined with a lack of research and technology linkages between MNEs and indigenous firms, explain these poor results. However, the Shannon region in the West of the country presents some specific institutional characteristics that could theoretically make the region a strong technological enclave. The various actors in the region - i.e. the administrative, financial, political and research institutions, as well as the business organizations - have indeed infused a new type of economic development. After a brief review of the available concepts and models articulated around these actors and their interrelationships, the paper analyses whether the Shannon region, taken as an illustrative example, mirrors a specific economic and technological localized setting. The study is based on a survey of indigenous and foreign firms.     

Sixty years of discrimination and diversity research in human resource management: A review with suggestions for future research directions

This article reviews discrimination and diversity research published in Human Resource Management (HRM) over the past 60 years. While discrimination and diversity are very different constructs, it is often informative to study them together, because when people recognize each other's diversity, this can result in bias, stereotyping, and discrimination. We conducted bibliographic searches for terms related to discrimination and diversity as well as a manual search through every title and abstract published in HRM over the last 60 years to assess article relevance. The search resulted in 135 research articles with 136 unique studies (i.e., samples) which are reviewed in this article. Sex and race are the demographics that have been examined the most in HRM, while religion has been examined the least. Moreover, the number of studies examining lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, and queer (LGBTQ) employees in the workplace in HRM has grown quickly within the past 10 years, culminating in a recent meta‐analysis. Our review looks at some of the earliest research published, the most recent research published, and the overall trends we identified in the research over the years for both discrimination and diversity articles. We then make future research suggestions and recommendations to advance the study of discrimination and diversity in the coming years.     

The Early History of the Cumulants and the Gram-Charlier Series

The early history of the Gram-Charlier series is discussed from three points of view: (1) a generalization of Laplace's central limit theorem, (2) a least squares approximation to a continuous function by means of Chebyshev-Hermite polynomials, (3) a generalization of Gauss's normal distribution to a system of skew distributions. Thiele defined the cumulants in terms of the moments, first by a recursion formula and later by an expansion of the logarithm of the moment generating function. He devised a differential operator which adjusts any cumulant to a desired value. His little known 1899 paper in Danish on the properties of the cumulants is translated into English in the Appendix.     

Capturing the Implications of Services Trade Liberalization

This paper evaluates the impact of service sector trade liberalization on the world economy by a ten-region, eleven-sector CGE model with import embodied technology transfer from developed countries to developing countries. Simulation results show that service sector trade liberalization not only directly affects world service production and trade, but also has significant implications for other sectors in the economy. The major channel of the impact is through inter-industry input-output relations and TFP growth induced from services imported by developing countries from developed countries, which may be embodied with new information and advanced technology.     

City Children and Genderfied Neighbourhoods: The New Generation as Urban Regeneration Strategy

Former industrial cities in the West are employing gentrification as urban policy. In these policies, women and families currently play an important role as gentrification pioneers. In my analysis of Rotterdam in the Netherlands, I propose the term genderfication to understand the gender dimensions of this process. Genderfication refers to the production of space for different gender relations. I analyse Rotterdam's urban planning program for becoming a ‘child‐friendly city’, which entails replacing existing urban dwellings with new, larger and more expensive ‘family‐friendly homes’ as a strategy for urban re‐generation. Urban re‐generation supplements regeneration in the form of material and economic restructuring, and refers to the replacement of part of the current population by a new and better suited generation. The ‘child‐friendly city program’ is considered in tandem with punitive ‘youth policies’.     

Hierarchical Models in Environmental Science

Environmental systems are complicated. They include very intricate spatio-temporal processes, interacting on a wide variety of scales. There is increasingly vast amounts of data for such processes from geographical information systems, remote sensing platforms, monitoring networks, and computer models. In addition, often there is a great variety of scientific knowledge available for such systems, from partial differential equations based on first principles to panel surveys. It is argued that it is not generally adequate to consider such processes from a joint perspective. Instead, the processes often must be considered as a coherently linked system of conditional models. This paper provides a brief overview of hierarchical approaches applied to environmental processes. The key elements of such models can be considered in three general stages, the data stage, process stage, and parameter stage. In each stage, complicated dependence structure is mitigated by conditioning. For example, the data stage can incorporate measurement errors as well as multiple datasets with varying supports. The process and parameter stages can allow spatial and spatio-temporal processes as well as the direct inclusion of scientific knowledge. The paper concludes with a discussion of some outstanding problems in hierarchical modelling of environmental systems, including the need for new collaboration approaches.     

Multinomial distributions applied to random sampling of particulate materials

When sampling a batch consisting of particulate material, the distribution of a sample estimator can be characterized using knowledge about the sample drawing process. With Bernoulli sampling, the number of particles in the sample is binomially distributed. Because this is rarely realized in practice, we propose a sampling design in which the possible samples have a nearly equal mass. Expected values and variances of the sample estimator are calculated. It is shown that the sample estimator becomes identical to the Horvitz–Thompson estimator in the case of a large batch-to-sample mass ratio and a large sample mass. Simulations and experiments were performed to test the theory. Simulations confirm that the round-off error due to the discrete nature of particles is negligible for large sample sizes. Sampling experiments were carried out with a mixture of PolyPropylene (PP) and PolyTetraFluorEthylene (PTFE) spheres suspended in a viscous medium. The measured and theoretical variations are in good agreement.