WHITHER PANAMA? CONSTRUCTING A CONSISTENT AND BALANCED WORLD SUT SYSTEM INCLUDING INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND TRANSPORT MARGINS

This paper extends work done within the World Input–Output Database project (WIOD), which compiled supply and use tables (SUTs) for 40 countries, covering about 85% of the world economy, by adding SUTs for the “rest of the world” (RoW), the approximately 15% of the world economy not covered by the 40 countries included in the WIOD database, ensuring a consistent and balanced world SUT system. The term “consistency” means that at the world level, all flows of goods and services balance, properly accounting for trade and transport services used in international trade (the “cif-fob difference”). This results in SUTs for the RoW which, together with bilateral trade matrices for all commodities (and together with the 40 national SUTs from the WIOD project), describe a consistent SUT system at the world level.     

贸易保护对全球投资与经济增长的影响

本文在全球治理模型的基础上，模拟分析美国以及世界各主要国家和地区对进出口产品均提高关税后对经济增长的影响。模拟结果显示，美国有针对性地增加产品关税对美国经济增长并不有利，其贸易保护政策可能难以持续，而如果世界各主要国家和地区对进出口产品均提高关税，将使得印度以及低收入发展中国家的经济增长受到较大负面影响。经济的发展受到需求推动和生产技术推动，主导贸易保护只会进一步加剧矛盾，世界经济的发展需要各个国家和地区的共同努力和协同促进。     

A world trade model with bilateral trade based on comparative advantage

This paper describes an extension of Duchin's world trade model to include the explicit representation of transportation costs, permitting the endogenous determination of bilateral trade flows and region-specific prices. The original model is a linear program that, based on comparative advantage and the minimization of factor use, determines regional production and trade flows as well as world prices and scarcity rents for m regions, n good, and k factors. The new world trade model with bilateral trade achieves its objectives by introducing transportation services and geographically dependent transportation requirements for each traded good and each pair of potential trade partners. The formulation of this model and its major properties are presented, and results from a preliminary analysis with 11 regions, eight goods, four transportation sectors, and six factors of production are reported and compared with corresponding results from the world trade model. On the basis of this comparison, we conclude that transportation costs have little impact on a region's total imports or exports of a given commodity.     

我国农产品物流现状及对策分析

众所周知,目前我国的农业和农村经济都进入了一个全新的发展阶段,随着国民经济的高速发展,正式加入世界贸易组织、建立与周边国家和地区的自由贸易区以及深化改革粮棉等重要农产品的流通体制等等各种举措都使得我国农产品的市场化程度与贸易自由化程度得以快速的提高,自然而然,这也对现代农产品的物流提出了更高的要求。但由于受种种主客观因素的影响,现今我国的农产品物流还远远不能满足农业和农村经济快速发展的需要,因此,如何加快发展我国现代农产品物流成为了一个新的社会热点。     

REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN CHINA: INTERREGIONAL TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE AND REGIONAL COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE

Significant economic disparities among China's Eastern, Central, and Western regions pose unequivocal challenges to social equality and political stability in the country. A major impediment to economic development, especially in the poor, remote Western region, is the shortage of a transportation infrastructure. The Chinese government has committed to substantial investment for improving the accessibility of this vast, land-locked region as a mechanism for promoting its development. The paper examines the impacts of the intended transportation infrastructure build-up on the Western region's comparative advantage and its interregional trade. The World Trade Model is extended to represent this investment and applied to determine interregional trade in China based on region-specific technologies, factor endowments and prices, and consumption patterns as well as the capacities and costs of carrying goods among regions using the interregional transportation infrastructure in place in the base year of 1997 and that planned for 2010 and 2020. The model is implemented for three regions, 27 sectors, and seven factors. The results indicate that the planned infrastructure build-up will be cost-effective, will increase benefits especially for the Western region, and that it can conserve energy overall at given levels of demand but substitute oil for coal. Based on these and other model results, some recommendations are offered about strategies for regional development in China.     

Capturing the Implications of Services Trade Liberalization

This paper evaluates the impact of service sector trade liberalization on the world economy by a ten-region, eleven-sector CGE model with import embodied technology transfer from developed countries to developing countries. Simulation results show that service sector trade liberalization not only directly affects world service production and trade, but also has significant implications for other sectors in the economy. The major channel of the impact is through inter-industry input-output relations and TFP growth induced from services imported by developing countries from developed countries, which may be embodied with new information and advanced technology.     

金融危机下的贸易保护主义及应对策略分析

为了应对经济危机,很多国家和地区纷纷出台贸易保护主义措施,这不仅不会刺激世界经济恢复增长,反而会阻碍世界经济复苏。在世界经济高度一体化的今天,世界各国只有加强合作与对话,减少贸易障碍,才能逐步从危机中走出来,促进世界经济的复苏。本文从当前贸易保护主义的表现特点出发,分析了贸易保护主义对我国的影响及应对策略。     

CALCULATING ENERGY-RELATED CO2 EMISSIONS EMBODIED IN INTERNATIONAL TRADE USING A GLOBAL INPUT–OUTPUT MODEL

The Global Resource Accounting Model (GRAM) is an environmentally-extended multi-regional input–output model, covering 48 sectors in 53 countries and two regions. Next to CO₂ emissions, GRAM also includes different resource categories. Using GRAM, we are able to estimate the amount of carbon emissions embodied in international trade for each year between 1995 and 2005. These results include all origins and destinations of emissions, so that emissions can be allocated to countries consuming the products that embody these emissions. Net-CO₂ imports of OECD countries increased by 80% between 1995 and 2005. These findings become particularly relevant, as the externalisation of environmental burden through international trade might be an effective strategy for industrialised countries to maintain high environmental quality within their own borders, while externalising the negative environmental consequences of their consumption processes to other parts of the world. This paper focuses on the methodological aspects and data requirements of the model, and shows results for selected countries and aggregated regions.     

浅析公示语英译准确化的示范效应——以西安世园会为例

西安世界园艺博览会于2011年4月在浐灞生态区开幕,参展国来自世界多个国家和地区,本次世园会不仅是一届跨越经济、文化、科技等领域的多元化、综合性、世界级的博览盛会,更是向世界展示古城西安的重要机遇,为促进本次盛会的有序发展,加强西安与其他地区乃至世界的交流,世园会内的公示语英译是一个重要途径。     

World trade forecasts upgraded,but headwinds from Asia

• ? Most leading indicators of world trade point to growth remaining robust in the next few months, but there are some headwinds, especially from Asia. Overall, we expect trade growth to decelerate this year, yet the outlook has improved since August. We see world trade rising by 6.1% in 2017 and by 4.8% this year, up from our previous forecasts of 5.7% and 3.8%, respectively .
• ? The latest trade volume data for the major economies support our forecasts, as does our survey‐based export indicator, which leads trade by around three months. This indicator and the main measure of global freight volumes are consistent with world trade continuing to grow by around 6% y/y in the near term.
• ? World trade growth is likely to be supported by emerging markets (EMs), which made a large contribution to the trade recovery last year. Another factor that may be supportive – especially for EMs – is the slippage in the US dollar last year, as there is some evidence of a negative correlation between dollar strength and world trade.
• ? The recovery of demand in the Eurozone and expected fiscal stimulus in the US add to the positive constellation of factors supporting world trade growth. Business sentiment indicators remain positive and imply upside risks to our forecasts. Yet it is not obvious that they have a strong leading relationship with trade – and the statistical relationship has become weaker since 2007–2009. This reinforces our view that there has been a structural change in the relationship between world trade and world GDP.
• ? The main near‐term downside risks to world trade come from Asia. Freight indicators for Shanghai and Hong Kong have slowed markedly, as have semiconductor billings. Although Chinese activity indicators have also moderated, China's trade volume growth remains surprisingly strong.

     

Multi-modal,multi-output,multiregional variable input-output model

A multi-modal, multi-output, multiregional variable input-output (MMMVIO) model is introduced to evaluate the economic impact of a transportation system. The MMVIO model differs from the conventional input-output models by being price and cost sensitive. The regional technical coefficients, trade coefficients, modal choice of shipment, input mix and output composition are determined by the price and cost variables, a property not shared by the conventional input-output models.The transportation system reduces shipping cost of delivering commodities between regions, thereby stimulating economy of trading regions. The MMMVIO model captures the development impact incident to the transportation system.     

Britain, the EU and the global economy

Britain should retain a global outlook in its political and economic affairs. Whilst recognising her proximity to and trade relations with Europe, it is argued that in order to compete on the world stage Britain should adopt a more flexible economy along American lines as a contrast to the European model. Importantly, this means retaining economic and political sovereignty.     

World trade: Modest recovery continues

The latest indicators suggest a modest recovery in world trade. The apparent upswing in US import demand over the last couple of months is a notable positive signal for the global economy, and the constraining impact on world trade of the Eurozone recession of 2011–13 is also easing. The pace of world trade growth is, however, still relatively slow; our forecasts suggest world trade growth will only recover to its long‐term average level of just under 6% per year by end‐2015. Trade growth in key emerging markets also remains soft, although some indicators from Asia suggest an improving picture. One reason for the relatively weak growth in world trade may be a restructuring of global supply chains, reducing the growth in trade in intermediate goods. If so, this is not necessarily bad news for the global economy but may have distributional consequences, for example bearing down on growth in countries that have specialised in providing such goods including some emergers.     

我国对外贸易与经济增长的相关性实证研究

随着经济全球化进程的不断加快,对外贸易对于任何一个国家来说都已经成为经济发展的焦点之一。尤其对于自加入WTO以来越来越成为名副其实的"世界工厂"的中国来说,一方面我国正处在经济迅猛增长的关键时期,另一方面对外贸易的依存度一直在不断上升,此时此刻对外贸易与经济增长之间的相关性的研究就更加具有价值。我国应该优化进出口贸易结构,在汇率制度上进行创新,在政策上辅佐支持国际贸易,以使其发挥出对经济增长的促进作用的最好水平。     

Trade openness,financial openness,and macroeconomic volatility

This paper develops a new model of an open economy for a study of macroeconomic dynamics under different degrees of trade and financial openness. The model is estimated using quarterly data on the Chinese economy over the period 2005Q3-2020Q4 and then applied to analyze how macroeconomic volatility varies with trade and financial openness in several representative settings. We find that the impacts on macroeconomic volatility of trade openness and financial openness depend on the nature of the underlying shocks and a moderate degree of trade openness, together with a high degree of financial openness, yield the optimal welfare results in most cases. These results highlight that the effects of trade and financial openness on macroeconomic volatility differ in various situations and that their interactions can lead to different welfare results.     

World trade recovering but still reasons for caution

• ? World trade has picked up in recent months, expanding at the fastest pace in six years in the first quarter, with the rise fairly evenly split between advanced and emerging markets. Stronger activity in China and a broader upturn in global investment have been key factors. But there are still reasons for caution. Although the ‘cyclical’ element in world trade is improving, the ‘trend’ element is not thanks to changes in supply chains and a lack of trade liberalisation.
• ? World trade growth looks set to reach about a 4% annual rate in Q1 2017, the fastest pace since 2011. Alternative freight‐based indicators confirm the upturn. This suggests some modest near‐term upside risk to our world growth forecasts.
• ? Recent growth has been evenly split between advanced countries and emerging markets (EM). In EM, the end of deep recessions in Russia and Brazil and an upturn in China have been key factors. China directly added 0.5 percentage points to annual world trade growth over recent months and firmer growth there has also pushed up commodity prices and the spending power and imports of commodity exporters.
• ? Another important positive factor is an improvement in investment, which is a trade‐intensive element of world GDP. Rising capital goods imports across a range of countries suggest the drag on world trade from weak investment is fading.
• ? The decline in the ratio of world trade growth to world GDP growth over recent years has both cyclical and structural elements. But while the cyclical component now seems to be improving, there is little evidence that the structural part – responsible for between a half and two‐thirds of the recent decline – is doing likewise.
• ? Key factors behind the structural decline in world trade growth are changes in supply chains and a lack of trade liberalisation/protectionism. Both are likely to remain a drag over the coming years. Meanwhile, a levelling‐off of growth in China and drop back in commodity prices could curb the recent cyclical uptick.

     

Accounting for value added embodied in trade and consumption: an intercomparison of global multiregional input–output databases

Global multiregional input–output (MRIO) tables constitute detailed accounts of the economic activity worldwide. Global trade models based on MRIO tables are being used to calculate important economic and environmental indicators such as value added in trade or the carbon footprint of nations. Such applications are highly relevant in international trade and climate policy negotiations, and consequently MRIO model results are being scrutinized for their accuracy and reproducibility. We investigate the variation in results from three major MRIO databases by comparing underlying economic data and territorial and consumption-based results across databases. Although global value-added accounts were similar across databases, we find some significant differences at the level of individual countries and sectors. Model disagreement was relatively stable from the territorial to the consumption perspective. Pairwise matrix comparison statistics indicated that the Global Trade Analysis Project and World Input-Output Database MRIO tables were overall more similar to each other than either was to the Eora database.     

ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS OF POLICY RESTRICTIONS ON WATER WITHDRAWALS FROM SURFACE AND UNDERGROUND SOURCES

The appropriation of water for economic activities is limited by regional surface and underground endowments, and symptoms of environmentally unsustainable withdrawals are already visible in many regions of the world. In this paper we investigate the economic implications of water policy imposing source- and region-specific restrictions on water withdrawals taking the Mexican economy as a case study. We use an inter-regional input–output model of Mexico's hydro-economic regions to allocate production subject to the availability of water and other factors of production. Water sustainability requires a reduction of 7.5?km³/yr of groundwater withdrawals, which is compensated by an increase of 3.4?km³/yr of surface water, an expansion onto an additional 1.4 million hectares of rainfed land, and modifications in subnational patterns of food trade. This framework for evaluating scenarios describing sustainability-oriented water policies is readily applicable to other regions.     

低碳贸易壁垒的内容、影响及应对措施

发展低碳经济,减少碳排放,是延缓全球气候变暖的迫切需要。以低碳经济为代表的新技术革命也是全球经济复苏的引擎和下一轮经济增长的动力。制定碳标准,征收碳关税,一方面起到了监督减排责任的作用,但另一方面也成为新的技术性贸易壁垒。低碳贸易壁垒是在应对气候变化的大背景下产生的一类新型贸易措施,贸易保护主义将来更多是以低碳壁垒等技术性壁垒出现。由碳关税和低碳壁垒衍生的税收成本和技术标准的提高,将给包括中国在内的新兴经济体的出口产品增加生产成本,影响其出口贸易的发展。为应对世界经济和贸易格局向低碳化演变及发达国家设置低碳贸易壁垒对出口造成的严峻挑战,中国必须实施贸易低碳化战略,加快转型步伐。     

DO WATER-RICH REGIONS HAVE A COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE IN FOOD PRODUCTION? IMPROVING THE REPRESENTATION OF WATER FOR AGRICULTURE IN ECONOMIC MODELS

With growing demand for fresh water and uncertain supplies, there is an increasing concern about future water scarcity. Since most freshwater withdrawals are for agriculture, reliance on water embodied in imported food (trade in ‘virtual water’) is a possible strategy to provide food to water-stressed regions while conserving their scarce supply for other purposes. To evaluate this proposition, we extend a model of interregional trade by (1) defining endowments of water that cannot be exceeded, (2) allowing simultaneous operation of rainfed and irrigated agriculture, and (3) distinguishing sub-regional endowments within a larger economic region. An application to the Mexican economy compares region-specific water abundance with economic comparative advantage under alternative scenarios. We conclude that the water-rich regions of Mexico are relatively high-cost producers of food and that they do not pick up the slack even when the lowest-cost Mexican regions are constrained by binding water constraints.