The Effectiveness of Portfolio Risk Diversification: An Additive Approach by Project Replication

This article proposes a probabilistic approach to project operational risk and project portfolio risk diversification. The analysis rests on a fundamental distinction between a fractional and an additive approach for constructing portfolios. Since the additive approach excludes variance as a measure of risk, the project's operational risk is defined by its probability of loss. Paradoxically, the effectiveness of any firm's portfolio risk diversification process will be negatively related to the operational risk of its representative project. We also present the conditions under which risk management and efficiency management can contribute to the firm's strategic imperative of lowering its operational risk.     

项目组织结构复杂性风险评估及其在协作型项目组合中的扩散机制研究

探讨项目复杂性与项目风险的关系并证明了项目的组织结构复杂性是项目的风险来源。以项目组织结构的复杂性作为项目内部风险的衡量标准,建立了基于组织结构复杂性并考虑规模因素的项目风险评估模型。分析了项目组合中通常存在的项目间的相互关系以及每一种相互关系对项目组合整体风险的影响。利用Logistic映射对协作型项目组合建立了项目组织结构复杂性风险的扩散模型,以定量刻画项目组织结构复杂性风险在项目组合中的扩散机制。最后对模型进行了仿真并根据仿真结果给出了降低项目组合风险的策略。     

Project portfolio control and portfolio management performance in different contexts

This article investigates the nature and relationship of project portfolio control techniques and portfolio management performance, and how this relationship is moderated by situational idiosyncrasies of internal and external dynamics, industries, governance types, and geographic location. A worldwide questionnaire with 242 responses was used, of which 136 high‐performing responses were filtered out for quantitative analysis of best practices. Three portfolio control factors were identified: portfolio selection, portfolio reporting, and decision‐making style. Two measures for portfolio management performance were identified: achievement of desired portfolio results and achievement of project and program purpose. The results indicate that different portfolio control mechanisms are associated with different performance measures. A contingency model was developed, including moderating effects by contextual variables.     

Management Control of Project Portfolio Uncertainty: A Managerial Role Perspective

This article presents empirical results on different managers’ viewpoints regarding the sources and management of project portfolio uncertainty. As a key result, this study demonstrates the versatility of uncertainties experienced by managers, the limited degree of perceived control over them, the use of an almost complete management control package in managing uncertainties, and the necessity of managers’ cooperation in the skilled use of the management control package when managing uncertainties. In addition, a further research agenda is proposed.     

A project portfolio risk‐opportunity identification framework

This article introduces a framework to identify risks and opportunities during portfolio risk management that helps to decrease the uncertainty of achieving the strategic goals of the organization. The final output of the framework is a portfolio risk‐opportunity register, which highlights the potential events that could impact the achievement of the goals. An illustrative example of how risk‐opportunity identification can be conducted within this framework is also exposed. In spite of being theoretical in nature, the model contributes to the risk management domain applied specifically to project portfolio management, opening the possibility of further research for its verification.     

项目组合实施精益战略的管理环境研究

本文以K公司基于项目组合实施精益战略的实践为例,采用案例研究的方法,探讨企业以项目组合管理为手段实施精益战略的管理环境构建及其组成要素。研究结果表明,对于实施精益战略的企业而言,流程体系的设计、组织结构的变革以及精益文化的塑造共同构成了管理环境构建的核心环节,三者缺一不可,互为依存。此外,在流程体系设计中要突出项目组合管理在精益战略实施中的协同性、过程性及有效性;组织结构变革要协调项目组合管理与传统职能部门管理的关系;精益文化培育则要从职能维度与组织维度向项目维度扩展。     

Corporate Innovation Culture and Dimensions of Project Portfolio Success: The Moderating Role of National Culture

This study examines the relationships between corporate innovation culture (analysis/practices) and dimensions of project portfolio success (strategic fit/portfolio balance) as well as national‐level culture practices as moderators. Data (N = 165) were collected in four countries differing in cultural practices. Analysis and practices were identified as positive, significant, and complementary predictors of both dimensions. As hypothesized, the corporate variables related more strongly and positively to the success dimensions when assertiveness was high rather than low. The findings, thus, suggest that corporate factors should be compatible with national culture to elevate the fit and balance of project portfolios.     

Value Management in Project Portfolios: Identifying and Assessing Strategic Value

Projects are expected to bring value to their constituents. Value management in project portfolios has centered on the maximization of commercial value and identification of future business prospects. In this study, the goal is increased understanding of the identification and assessment of strategic, non‐commercial value in project portfolios. We map the relevant dimensions of strategic value and supplement previous frameworks with the non‐commercial aspects. Ecological, societal, and learning values have only been studied conceptually and qualitatively in earlier research. We propose future research on these values in quantitative settings and exploring collective sensemaking as part of project portfolio value management.     

基于投资组合理论的企业多项目投资管理研究

投资行为所具有的风险和收益密切相关的特点,使投资者必须努力寻求低风险和高收益的投资策略。而投资组合则能够为企业进行分散风险和扩张经营提供强有力的保证。本文使用现代投资组合理论,为企业的多项目投资组合建立优化模型,从定量的角度说明在企业多项目投资管理中运用投资组合的合理性和有效性。     

Innovation Portfolio Management as a Subset of Dynamic Capabilities: Measurement and Impact on Innovative Performance

Innovation portfolio management has been touted as a new dynamic capability following the evolution of team‐ and project‐based organizational forms. In this article, we conceptualize innovative dynamic capabilities as a multidimensional construct that comprises distinct but related aspects in managing innovation. We test our model, which links this capability to innovative performance by using survey data from a sample of 923 firms. We find empirical support for our conceptualization and its impact on firm innovative performance.     

我国证券投资基金资产组合管理合理性的实证研究

本文基于风险与收益相匹配的综合评价标准,对我国35支股票型开放式证券投资基金近五年来的组合管理能力进行了研究,并进而分析了基金组合管理合理性对于基金绩效的影响。研究结果进一步证明了我国证券投资基金合理性对于绩效存在显著影响,并据此提出相关的启示和建议。     

基于高阶矩风险防范的银行资产负债组合优化模型研究——以A银行为例

资产负债管理能力是现代商业银行的基本能力,其核心在于风险控制和价值创造。商业银行资产负债组合优化是现代商业银行信贷管理框架中的核心内容,它对于保持银行资产流动性、安全性和赢利性的＂三性＂的最佳组合、优化配置资源、提高银行的生存能力和竞争能力,具有重要的现实意义。本文通过以贷款组合的VaR约束控制贷款组合的二阶矩,即控制了资产组合的风险;以贷款组合收益率的偏度约束控制贷款组合的三阶矩,即控制了贷款组合收益率发生总体损失的可能性;以组合收益率的峰度约束控制贷款组合的四阶矩,即减少了组合收益率发生极端损失的可能性,建立了资产分配的收益率均值-方差-偏度-峰度模型。     

Portfolio selection methodology for a nuclear project

It is difficult to evaluate complex, publicly sensitive nuclear project proposals. Scientists, subject matter experts, politicians, and citizens often differ on scope, budget, time, and quality priorities. There are numerous qualitative factors and quantitative variables. Experts could widely disagree on criteria or neglect to discriminate between seemingly identical alternatives. An ineffective portfolio selection method could lead to safety problems, budget overruns, or outright project failures. This case study develops and examines a mixed‐method, integrated qualitative and quantitative portfolio selection model, applied to a “tritium extraction facility” project concept.     

How Project Manager–Project Owner Interaction Can Work Within and Influence Project Risk Management

Inherent interest conflicts between a project management team and project owner are often neglected in project risk management. Risk management by the project management team basically focuses on project short‐term survival, or project success toward handover to the customer, while for the project owner, strategic success should be more important. To see how this takes place in and influences real projects, seven large projects were studied, and interaction in project risk management between the project owners and project management team was examined for each project. The study revealed that the main focus in the studied projects was on operational risks, even within the project owner's set of high‐priority risks.     

Six Sigma and information systems project management: A revised theoretical model

Previous information systems (IS) research has significantly improved the success rate of IS projects, but the result is still far from satisfying. The effort to advance IS project management theories continues. One notable effort is Ravichandran and Rai (2000). Based on quality management principles, they developed a model (the R&R model) describing a qualityoriented organizational system that leads to software development quality performance. This study analyzed Six Sigma to propose major revisions to the R&R model. Six Sigma is a recent approach to quality management with proven effectiveness. The analysis of Six Sigma suggested that several constructs in the R&R model need to be respecified, leading to the definition of a new quality‐oriented organizational system. More importantly, the revised model posits that the new organizational system leads to IS project success that can be measured by organizational performance improvement. This study contributes to the literature and provides practical guidance to IS project managers.     

基于多指数模型和APT模型的投资组合分析

在投资组合研究中,多指数模型的分析并不多见。鉴于此,对多指数模型和APT模型进行了理论总结,并研究了多指数模型和APT模型在投资组合管理以及业绩评价上的应用。多指数模型可以用于形成收益预期、研究事件影响,以及作为分解组合好坏表现的工具。     

A Comprehensive Framework for Sustainable Project Portfolio Selection Based on Structural Equation Modeling

Project selection problems are inherently complex problems with multiple and often conflicting objectives. The complexity of project selection problems is due to the high number of projects from which a subset (portfolio) has to be chosen. Various analytical methods, ranging from the simple weighted sum to complex mathematical programming have been proposed to solving these problems. We propose an integrated approach for strategic and sustainable project portfolio selection, which is composed of two distinct but interrelated modules. In the first module, we use the strategic planning and sustainability concepts to select a set of promising projects. In the second module, we use a project portfolio selection procedure to choose among the promising projects identified in the first module. A structural equation model is used to analyze and explain the relationships among different factors in the proposed framework. More specifically, we investigate the effects of: (1) strategic level performance on sustainability, post‐implementation, and overall performance; (2) implementation performance on post‐implementation and overall performance; (3) portfolio selection performance on implementation and overall performance; and (4) post‐implementation performance on overall performance. A case study in investment banking is presented to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed model and exhibit the efficacy of the procedures and algorithms.     

Project success as a topic in project management journals

This article highlights the characteristics of articles on project success published between 1986 and 2004 in the Project Management Journal (PMJ) and the International Journal of Project Management (IJPM). The analysis covers references, concepts like project management success, project success, success criteria, and success factors; features of the samples, data collection, and analysis techniques used; and professional disciplines. The results show that research on project success is characterized by diversity except in epistemological and methodological perspectives. The article suggests a shift to project, portfolio, and program success and concludes with a discussion on the traditional state of the research, criticizes its assumptions, and offers alternative metaphors and recommendations for future research.     

Risk management affecting IS/IT project success through communicative action

Project risk management is defined in the literature as being instrumental action based on rational problem solving. Research indicates limited positive effects of an exclusive focus of instrumental action on project success. This article proposes to extend this instrumental view through communicative action. This theoretical broadening was explored by interviewing project stakeholders about project success and risk management application. Analysis demonstrates stakeholders deliberately use risk management to convey messages to others, with the aim of influencing their behavior, synchronizing their perception, and making them aware of the context and their responsibilities. Stakeholders perceive these effects as contributing to project success.     

信息系统项目的风险管理分析

信息系统项目的风险管理对信息系统项目的成功起着重要的作用。分析了信息系统项目的风险类别、后果、驱动因素和行动路径;提出了信息系统风险管理程序,以及在信息系统项目实施中进行有效的风险管理。