Financial intermediation costs in low income countries: The role of regulatory,institutional, and macroeconomic factors

We analyze factors driving persistently higher financial intermediation costs in low-income countries (LICs) relative to emerging market (EM) country comparators. Using the net interest margin as a proxy for financial intermediation costs at the bank level, we find that within LICs a substantial part of the variation in interest margins can be explained by bank-specific factors: margins tend to increase with higher riskiness of credit portfolio, lower bank capitalization (or lower risk aversion), and smaller bank size. Overall, we find that concentrated market structures and lack of competition in LICs banking systems and institutional weaknesses constitute the key impediments preventing financial intermediation costs from declining. Our results provide strong evidence that policies aimed at fostering banking competition and strengthening institutional frameworks can reduce intermediation costs in LICs.     

Shadow Banking,Chinese Style

Shadow banks are broadly defined as entities which conduct credit intermediation outside the formal banking system. Poorly regulated, engaging in opaque forms of intermediation, deeply interconnected with the official banking system, and operating with implicit government guarantees, they pose a major source of systemic risk. Yet shadow banks provide an important service by channeling credit to excluded investors, and can complement the formal banking sector. What explains the rapid proliferation of shadow banks in China? How large are they and what forms do they take? What types of risks do they pose to the financial system? And how best can China utilise the services of shadow banks while at the same time ensuring that they do not create systemic risks for the financial system?     

金融业开放与中国制造业竞争力提升

研究目标：探究外资银行进入对制造业企业加成率变化的影响和作用机制。研究方法：基于异质性企业和新增长理论，将企业异质性和新熊彼特模型有机整合到统一框架中提出命题，根据中国工业企业和海关数据库，通过外资银行进入这一外生冲击对银行业开放后的制造业企业“加成率效应”进行实证研究。研究发现：总体上外资银行进入后，进入区域内企业平均加成率显著增加。行业层面异质性渠道检验表明，行业与技术前沿差距越小、行业外部融资依赖度越高、与银行业投入产出关联度越大，外资银行进入“加成率效应”越大。分所有制类型的结果显示，民营和外资企业的正向效应更为显著，且大型民营企业的正向效应值最大。分地区和要素密集度的结果显示，东部和劳动密集型企业的正向“加成率效应”较大。研究创新：首次从企业盈利水平视角出发探讨外资银行进入对下游制造业加成率的影响。研究价值：证实金融业开放有利于提升我国制造业企业市场势力。     

Determinants of bank interest margins in Central and Eastern Europe: A comparison with the West

We investigate the determinants of bank interest margins in the Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC). We assess to what extent the relatively high bank margins in CEEC can be attributed to low efficiency or non-competitive market conditions, controlling for the macroeconomic environment and the influence of foreign and state-owned banks. We systematically compare CEEC banks with Western European banks. Our results indicate that banking in the CEEC is on a virtuous path, at least in the EU accession countries: Increased efficiency benefits customers, while capital adequacy supports systemic stability. In the non-accession countries, important policy actions are required.     

The impact of bank competition and concentration on bank risk-taking behavior and stability: Evidence from GCC countries

This paper presents a comprehensive assessment of the impact of competition on bank fragility pre and post financial crisis period in the GCC banking market as measured by bank risk-taking behavior and bank stability during the period 1998–2016. Our results indicate that a higher level of bank competition and the greater degree of concentration adds to financial fragility. The findings further shows that during the 2008 crisis, lower bank competition maintain the stability of GCC banks. We also find that lower level of competition and lower concentration in the banking market increases the risk-taking behavior of the low capitalized, low liquid and small banks which add to fragility in the banking system. Our findings suggest that countries with greater capital stringency, greater supervisory power, greater market discipline, and private monitoring, with explicit deposit insurance schemes, higher shareholder protection, and higher legal efficiency decrease banks’ risk-taking and increase their stability. We also find that greater regulatory restrictions and higher creditor protection decrease banks’ stability and increase risk in concerned countries. We find support for both competition-fragility and competition-stability hypotheses in the GCC banking market. The results also confirm that the use of a single measure of competition is insufficient to assess the role of competition in banking stability.     

Sustainable development and financial institutions: Do banks' environmental policies influence customer deposits?

This paper investigates the relationship between the environmental policies taken by financial institutions and the choice of depositors on where to save their money. Prior research has shown that increases in the number of customers making deposits are driven by bank pricing policy and switching costs for depositors. By employing a dynamic panel data model, this study empirically tests how environmental performance influences the depositors' choice on where to put their money in a sample of worldwide financial institutions from 2011 to 2018. The main results suggest that there is a negative relationship between banks' environmental performance and customers' deposits. Furthermore, the banks that are the best at managing carbon emissions and at pursuing sustainable development pay lower interest rates on customer deposits.     

Bank lending: The bank ownership focus in the pre- and post-global financial crisis periods

The objective of this research is to examine the impact of bank ownership on the composition of working capital, investment, and consumption loan types before and after the global financial crisis (GFC). The data has been grouped into pre-GFC and post-GFC sub-periods. The pre-GFC period encompasses the post-Asian crisis time period until 2006, just before the start of the GFC. The post-GFC period comprises the time period 2009 until 2016. Data were obtained from the Indonesian Banking Directory of the Indonesian Central Bank, commercial bank annual reports provided by Infobank magazine, and the Indonesian Banking Development Institute. The findings reveal the differences and changes in the composition of loan types for the different forms of bank ownership. Government-owned banks tend to focus on consumption loans, whereas foreign-owned banks outpace domestic-owned banks in the financing of working capital loans. After the GFC, government-owned banks increased their consumption loans significantly. This research augments the knowledge about loan portfolio compositions and trends pertaining to different bank types. It can serve as a benchmark and can be applied to enhance decision-making in the banking industry. Furthermore, Indonesian regulating authorities can utilize the information from a strategic and policy perspective to monitor, manage and control financial intermediation from a macroprudential perspective.     

MODELS OF BANKING INSTABILITY: A PARTIAL REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE

Abstract. This paper critically examines the theoretical literature on banking instability that has followed Diamond and Dybvig (1983). It explores the extent to which it (a) explains banking instability within a theoretical context in which financial intermediaries improve on unintermediated markets, and (b) justifies government involvement in the financial intermediation industry. It suggests that the literature has yet to provide a satisfactory theoretical basis for banking instability as such since the intermediaries which arise from it are peculiar mutual funds that bear little resemblance to real-world banks. In addition, the paper challenges the widespread belief that this literature provides a sound foundation for government involvement in the industry. It suggests that arguments for government intervention are open to objection on various grounds, the most important one being that they are inconsistent with the existence of properly motivated financial intermediation in these models.     

Global bank complexity and financial fragility around the world

Using data for 123 countries from 1996 to 2020, we uncover the effect of foreign-owned banks’ geographic complexity on financial fragility in the context of financial liberalization. We compute a measure of foreign-owned banks’ geographic complexity for each country from data on the affiliate network of internationally active banking institutes. The financial effects of geographic complexity may help banks improve their survival by improving their solvency. After extensive testing for the sensitivity of the results, our main findings were threefold. First, a higher degree of geographic complexity of foreign-owned banks reduces the likelihood of a bank’s default, and these effects become more pronounced in low- and lower-middle-income countries. Second, the effects of financial liberalization vary across income groups. Third, the joint effects of foreign-owned banks’ geographic complexity and financial liberalization on financial fragility vary across forms of financial liberalization. Our findings have several policy implications: first, bank supervisors should consider the presence and structure of foreign bank ownership in their assessments; second, the government should take into account the level of economic development in choosing the proper form of financial liberalization; third, the government should promote financial freedom to strengthen the role of foreign-owned banks’ geographic complexity in alleviating financial fragility.     

Factors influencing bank risk in Europe: Evidence from the financial crisis

We use a dynamic panel data model to analyze bank-specific and macroeconomic determinants of bank risk for a large sample of commercial banks operating in the euro area. The selected time span, from 2001 to 2012, considers the impact of the on-going financial and economic crisis on the Eurozone banking system. Our results indicate that capitalization, profitability, efficiency and liquidity are inversely and significantly related to bank risk. However, the recourse to wholesale funding by banks seems to increase their risk. We also find that less-concentrated markets, lower interest rates, higher inflation rates and a context of economic crisis (with a falling GDP) increase bank risk.     

Indirect Convertibility,Equity‐Based Banking and Financial Stability

Banking reform proposals put forward in the wake of the recent financial crisis maintain that equity‐based banking would be stable and would prevent bank runs. This article argues that complementing this form of banking with an indirect convertibility monetary standard and thereby dispensing with base money would enhance financial stability further. Banks would not hold a distinctive asset (base money) that would be called upon by customers at short notice, thereby removing the possibility of bank runs. No discrepancy in value between the two sides of a bank's balance sheet would arise as its assets (securitised loans) would be marked to market. Unlike other recent contributions, the intermediation model outlined here is not ‘limited purpose’ in nature as banks would not be restricted in the form of lending activity they can pursue. Common sources of banking and financial instability – liquidity risk, solvency risk, moral hazard – would be absent.     

On bank privatization: The case of Egypt

This paper discusses the controversy regarding the privatization of the banking sector in Egypt. It provides an overview of the structure and evolution of the banking system, in the context of the series of reform measures undertaken by the Egyptian authorities over the past decades. The paper assesses the performance of the state-owned banks versus private banks over the period 1995–2005. Microprudential indicators, such as capital adequacy, asset quality, earnings, and profitability, reveal that state-owned banks lag behind in terms of efficiency and performance, compared to their private counterparts. Results also suggest that retaining government ownership can adversely affect banks performance. The paper explores the factors hindering the smooth implementation of bank privatization. The authors indicate that the financial sector reform currently adopted is comprehensive; however it is confronted with various political, social, and economic risks, which raise concerns regarding its sustainability. The paper then draws on the existing literature to provide guidance to policy makers, regarding effective and successful implementation of bank privatization.     

BANK CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS, BUSINESS CYCLE FLUCTUATIONS AND THE BASEL ACCORDS: A SYNTHESIS

Abstract.  In order to survey the mechanisms through which the introduction of Basel II bank capital requirements is likely to accentuate the procyclical tendencies of banking, this paper brings together the theoretical literature on the bank capital channel of propagation of exogenous shocks and the literature on the regulatory framework of capital requirements under the Basel Accords. We conclude that the theoretical models that revisit the bank capital channel under the new accord generally support the Basel II procyclicality hypothesis and that the magnitude of the procyclical effects essentially depends on (i) the composition of banks' asset portfolios, (ii) the approach adopted by banks to compute their minimum capital requirements, (iii) the nature of the rating system used by banks, (iv) the view adopted concerning how credit risk evolves through time, (v) the capital buffers over the regulatory minimum held by the banking institutions, (vi) the improvements in credit risk management and (vii) the supervisor and market intervention under Basel II. The recent events and instability in financial markets all over the world have led the procyclicality issue to enter the agendas of several political international  fora  and some measures to mitigate procyclicality are being put forward. The bank capital channel literature should now play an important role in evaluating their effectiveness.     

In search for yield? Survey-based evidence on bank risk taking

Monetary policy can have an impact on economic and financial stability through the risk taking of banks. Falling interest rates might induce investment into risky activities. This paper provides evidence on the link between monetary policy and bank risk taking. We use a factor-augmented vector autoregressive model (FAVAR) for the US for the period 1997–2008. Besides standard macroeconomic indicators, we include factors summarizing information provided in the Federal Reserve’s Survey of Terms of Business Lending (STBL). These data provide information on banks׳ new loans as well as interest rates for different loan risk categories and different banking groups. We identify a risk-taking channel of monetary policy by distinguishing responses to monetary policy shocks across different types of banks and different loan risk categories. Following an expansionary monetary policy shock, small domestic banks increase their exposure to risk. Large domestic banks do not change their risk exposure. Foreign banks take on more risk only in the mid-2000s, when interest rates were ‘too low for too long’.     

How important can bank lending shocks be for economic fluctuations?

We analyze the quantitative importance of bank lending shocks on real activity fluctuations in Norway and the UK, using structural VARs estimated on quarterly data from 1988 to 2010. We find that an adverse bank lending shock causes output to contract, and that such shocks can account for a substantial share of output volatility. This suggests that financial intermediation is an important source of shocks. The empirical analysis comprises the Norwegian banking crisis (1988–1992) and the recent period of banking failures in the UK. However, the results are also non-trivial when omitting periods of systemic banking distress from the sample.     

Why Does the Negotiable Certificate of Deposit Matter for Chinese Banking?

The Negotiable Certificate of Deposit (NCD) is a major financial instrument in China; the value of outstanding Chinese NCDs was approximately RMB8 trillion (equivalent to USD1.2 trillion) in mid‐2017. This article reviews the most recent developments in the Chinese NCD, including its effect on interest rate pass‐through and money creation. Empirical results show that the introduction of the NCD in 2014 influenced the relationship between the policy rate and the lending rate of Chinese commercial banks, and the interest rate pass‐through from the policy rate to the lending rate of commercial banks improved subsequently. However, this process has also been accompanied by maturity mismatch, increasing leverage, and decreasing credit ratings for the assets of banks and other financial institutions. Consequently, systemic risk in the Chinese banking system has increased.     

The impact of national culture on systemic risk

We investigate the effects of national culture on systemic risk using a comprehensive dataset from global banks in 58 countries over the period 2003–2016. Our results reveal that systemic risk measures are associated with cultural values. In particular, our results show that individualism and masculinity are the main drivers of banks' contribution to systemic risk. In addition, the impact of cultural variables on the systemic risk measures is nonlinear. This variation may be driven by both information in the national cultural measures and the skewness of the systemic risk measures. The findings have implications for prudential policies: designing uniform prudential and regulatory policies in banking to avoid financial distress for countries with heterogeneous cultures might not have the desire impact; rather, they might be more effective if the type of culture in each individual country is considered.     

The impacts of competition and shadow banking on profitability: Evidence from the Chinese banking industry

This paper contributes to the empirical literature on banking profitability by testing the impacts of competition and shadow banking on bank profitability using a sample of 100 Chinese commercial banks over 2003–2013 with 417 and 395 observations. The current study fills the gaps in the empirical studies by examining the competition in different banking markets (i.e. deposit market, loan market and non-interest income market) in China and further evaluating their impacts on bank profitability. The findings show that the non-interest income market has a higher level of competition compared to the deposit market and loan market. It is further reported that a lower level of competition in deposit market leads to an increase in the profitability of Chinese commercial banks. Finally, the results suggest that shadow banking improves the profitability of Chinese banks.     

Value-Driving Activities in Euro-Zone Banks

We develop and test accounting-based valuation models for commercial banks. We extend Begley et al.'s framework (2006) and propose a valuation model where goodwill is generated by virtually all commercial and investment banking activities. Key features of our model are: the development of a relation between future cash flows from fee income and the bank value that depends on lending, borrowing and off-balance sheet business; and the inclusion of proprietary investment and trading as value-driving activities. Empirical tests on a sample of Euro-zone banks from 1998 to 2006 provide the following evidence. Unrealised expected cash flows from fee income are the most important source of unrecorded goodwill. This is consistent with the increasing importance of revenue from the sale of financial services to banks' income. The contribution of fee income to goodwill is higher for banks with large deposits and new loans. Equity securities are a source of unrecorded goodwill, but the introduction of fair value accounting, with the adoption of the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), reduces their valuation role. Yet equity securities remain positively associated with unrecorded goodwill after IFRS adoption, suggesting that the fair value standards do not fully capture market expectations about future cash flows of investment assets.     

Are central banks really breaking the (policy) rules?

• ? Looking at the strength of the global economy, it's no surprise that simple policy rules suggest that interest rates in some advanced economies are much too low and/or that several rate hikes would be needed in 2018 to avoid falling further behind the curve. Nonetheless, we expect central banks to respond cautiously and we see a slower pace of tightening than the consensus view .
• ? Policy rules, such as the Taylor Rule, have long been considered a useful guide to the potential path for policy rates. But while it suggests that current US, Eurozone and Australian central bank rates are broadly appropriate, it signals that UK, Canadian, and Swedish rates should be substantially higher. Based on our economic forecasts, Taylor Rules suggest that the central banks in the US, Eurozone, Canada and Australia will all need to raise intertest rates by around 100bps by end‐2018.
• ? However, there are several reasons not to draw strong conclusions from such point estimates. First, the Taylor Rule requires estimates of two unobservable variables – the output gap and the natural rate of interest – which cannot be estimated precisely.
• ? Second, using models that were designed to predict US policy responses in the 1990s to forecast central banks' behaviour today is likely to be misleading. Meanwhile, inferring central banks' reaction functions from recent policy rate moves to assess the future policy path is fraught with difficulties. Not only have interest rates been broadly unchanged for the bulk of the post‐financial crisis period, but policymakers have provided other forms of policy support.
• ? Third, outside the US at least, Taylor Rules have historically pointed to persistently different policy rates from those observed, yet inflation has been well anchored.
• ? The upshot of all this is that we expect central banks in the advanced economies to err on the side of caution and anticipate interest rates rising less quickly than the consensus amongst economists.