金融政策的科学制定系统

金融政策的科学制定系统张晋林金融政策科学研究的首要问题是金融政策的制定系统。任何一项科学的经济政策的制定和实施，都是以规范而科学的政策制定系统为前提的。一、建立科学的金融政策制定系统以系统分析理论为基础建立的金融政策的科学制定系统，对金融政策的制定具...     

浅析现代金融理论的演变

现代金融理论是20世纪50年代以来经过学者们不断的开拓形成了一套以有效市场假说为核心,以投资组合理论、资本资产定价模型等资产定价理论为基础的一套完整的现代金融理论体系。     

我国利率变动对汇率的影响研究

利率和汇率是国家货币政策最主要的两种手段，它们分别影响着国内市场均衡和外部市场均衡。在金融自由化的国家，利率影响的国内货币市场和汇率影响的外汇市场将成为一个整体。     

基于开发性金融的民族地区科技型中小企业融资发展探索

开发性金融是政策性金融的深化和发展的产物。它以实现政府发展目标，弥补体制落后和市场失灵为目的，以国家信用为基础，以市场业绩为支撑，以建设市场来实现政府的发展目标，并通过“铺路”、“搭桥”，带动社会资金，引导其他金融机构行为。作为一种资源配置机制，它既不是市场机制的组成部分，也不能简单地归入政府机制，它兼有政府机制与市场机制的某些特点，是金融资源配置领域政府机制与市场机制的结合部和联合机制。     

企业财务工程再造与统合管理研究

<正>一、财务工程再造与统合管理——企业财务管理的新理念企业财务工程再造是以价值管理工程为基础,结合金融工程和现代信息技术等发展而形成的一种财务管理新技术。财务工程再造要求摆脱现行系统,从零开始展开功能分析,它要求从系统科     

世界各国住房金融政策及其借鉴

一、美国的住宅金融政策体系美国的住房金融体系是以私人和民间金融机构为主,以抵押贷款为主要形式,以发达的一级、二级抵押市场为特色。美国的住宅抵押市场是以住宅抵押为基础的、多种住宅售用交织成网络的、政府调节的、以私人金融机构为经营主体的住宅金融市场。美国政府在住宅抵押市场中起着重要的作用。可以说,在住宅金融运行机制的主要环节都有政策参与。美国政府调节住宅     

借鉴美国经验完善我国农村金融服务体系

一、美国的农村金融服务体系美国是世界上农业最发达的国家,这与其完备的农村金融体制密不可分。美国经过多年发展形成了规范、有序的农村金融服务体系,它以商业金融机构及个人信贷为基础,以农村合作金融的农业信贷系统为主导,以政府农贷机构等政策性金融为补充,形成了三大金融系统分工协作、相互配合的格局。     

衍生金融工具冲击下的金融企业会计策略

衍生金融工具是指在金融产品的市场交易中,以基本金融工具如货币、股票、债券等为基础,从中衍生或以创新组织的方式产生出种类繁多的新金融工具,包括金融远期、金融期货、金融期权、金融互换等。传统金融会计都直接针对货币、股票和债券等金融产品按计划进行交易的价值进行确认和计量,当一系     

现代金融理论中金融数学的应用

现代金融理论是指在金融经济学中大量应用金融数学研究金融风险的防范与控制、资本市场的运营、资本资产的结构和定价等理论取得的成果.金融数学是指以概率统计和泛函分析为基础,以随机分析和鞅理沦为核心的数学理论.     

财政赤字,影响经济长期增长

首先谈谈本地的金融系统本国的改革。在金融系统的改革里,这里有两种思路。一种是监管方面的思路,另外一种是结构方面的思路。我认为有些人是过度地追求了监管,另外有些人认为金融市场有些缺陷或有他们的参与者、有些限制,比如在房子定价方面。事实上对于政府来说,是有需要监管系统的风险的,我同时也认为政府应该是监管系统的风险,我们需要有新的机构,来监管这些市场。比如房价涨到疯狂的地步或者家庭或者银行资产负债表已经到了非常不     

The effect of housing and stock market wealth on consumption in emerging and developed countries

This study examines the long- and short-run relationship between private consumption, housing wealth, stock market wealth and income. In order to asses this relationship empirically, we use pooled mean group estimators of dynamic heterogeneous panel data on a sample of 30 developed and emerging economies. The sample countries are segmented into three separate panels: a developed bank-based panel, a developed market-based panel, and an emerging bank-based panel. Empirical estimates support the existence of long- and short-run stock market wealth effects in both groups of developed countries, with the effect being particularly strong in the developed market-based countries. A moderate long-run housing wealth effect is confirmed only for the developed bank-based countries, while a very strong short-run housing wealth effect is present in the developed market-based countries. As far as the emerging countries are concerned, the evidence is somewhat inconclusive, but it does seem to suggest that both wealth effects are effective in the long run, with housing wealth being more dominant.     

后危机时代金融体系的完善与创新——银行主导型和市场主导型金融体系的比较研究

在研究国内外金融结构发展理论的基础上,结合金融体系和实体经济两方面特性,对银行主导型和市场主导型两种金融体系进行比较分析.结果表明,分业经营的银行主导型金融体系对我国现阶段国民经济发展水平及产业结构更具有防范系统风险的作用,而市场主导型金融体系在监管缺失下更容易发生危机.因此,展开金融业竞争、加强法制、在合理监管体制下促进金融创新和提高金融体系运作效率是满足实体经济对金融结构的内在要求.     

The recurrence of financial distress: A survival analysis

Companies often suffer periods of financial distress before filing for bankruptcy. Unlike one-off bankruptcies, financial distress can occur repeatedly within the same individual firm. This paper is focused on the recurrence of financial distress and studies the Chinese stock market, where Special Treatment – an official indicator of financial distress – can be repeatedly applied to a listed company. We employ a stratified hazard model to predict the probability of subsequent distress with variables, including duration dependency, event-based factors, institutional variables, financial ratios, market-based variables and macroeconomic conditions. Our empirical results show that accounting and market-based variables have limited power in predicting the recurrence of distress, whereas the duration of recovery, restructuring events and their interaction terms with the accounting and macroeconomic factors affect the recurrent risk significantly. Tested on out-of-time samples, our proposed hazard models show a robust performance in the prediction of recurrent risk over time.     

Financial distress and bankruptcy prediction: An appropriate model for listed firms in Vietnam

This paper aims to develop a comprehensive model, the first of its kind in Vietnam, for the purpose of predicting financial distress and bankruptcy at Vietnamese listed firms. The period 2003–2016 is used to study the likelihood of financial distress in different scenarios. Various factors are utilized, including (1) accounting factors in the emerging market score model; (2) market factors in the distance-to-default model; and (3) macroeconomic indicators. The area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUC) curve is used to compare the usefulness of various models that predict financial distress and bankruptcy. Empirical findings from this study show that accounting and market factors, together with macroeconomic fundamental factors, both affect financial distress when they are considered in isolation. However, in a comprehensive model, the effects from accounting factors appear to be more significant than those from market-based factors. The default prediction model, which includes accounting factors with macroeconomic indicators, appears to perform much better than the model comprising market-based factors with macroeconomic fundamentals.     

Financial stability of Islamic banking and the global financial crisis: Evidence from the Gulf Cooperation Council

Using a sample of 76 banks from the Gulf Cooperation Council region, we use accounting- as well as market-based measures of financial stability to examine whether Islamic banks outperformed conventional banks in the time of financial shocks during the period 2000–2013. We find that the difference between the two banking types was initially not significant during the GFC. However, when the financial shock spread to the real economy during the later phases of the crisis, Islamic banks suffered a significantly higher level of financial instability than conventional banks. This result holds true for large banks but not for small Islamic banks. Small Islamic banks demonstrated a relatively better handling of the economic downturn than large Islamic banks, supporting the argument that Islamic banks are more stable when they operate at a small scale but lose this stability when they increase their scale of operations. Hence, while Islamic banks may have escaped the consequences of highly volatile financial instruments, they were not spared from a major shock in the real economic sectors.     

WHITHER CONSUMER PROTECTION IN FINANCIAL MARKETS? LESSONS FROM THE FINANCIAL CRISIS OF 1857

Consumer protection regulation has not prevented a collapse of trust in financial markets. Theories underlying regulatory intervention require review. In the financial crisis of 1857, firms rather than public authorities restored consumer confidence. Future regulatory regimes may permit greater scope for market-based design of consumer protection measures.     

Does bond market development enhance the banking sector’s efficiency in resource allocation? Industry-level evidence from Korea

Korea’s financial system used to be bank-based, with banks playing the leading role in financing corporations. As highlighted by Park et al. (2019), however, bond markets have developed rapidly in Korea and other Asian countries. The corporate bond market competes with banks as a source of finance for large borrowers. As such, bond markets may affect banking sector operation, a process known as disintermediation. In this paper, we examine whether bond market development improves the efficiency of resource allocation in Korean bank lending. We propose two channels through which bond market development affects the efficiency of bank lending. Since the two channels have opposing effects on the efficiency of banking, the issue must be settled by empirical analysis. We find that bank loans are much less efficient than bond financing in allocating resources across industries. Furthermore, banks are particularly inefficient in resource allocation in industries that rely more on bond financing. This suggests that competition from bond financing does not improve allocative efficiency of bank loans.     

Some Potential Linkages for Input-Output Analysis with Flow-of-Funds

Three major, interrelated accounting statements, at the frontiers of quantitative economic analysis, are three interrelated systems, namely: (1) National income and product accounts (NIPA), (2) The input-output tableaux, (IO), and (3) flow-of- funds accounts (FF). The third-mentioned system is somewhat less available and used in only limited areas of macroeconomic analysis. This paper is mainly concerned with use of FF accounting systems. This system shows where financial resources originate, and where they go in support of real capital formation. In this respect, interest rates and other market-based financial rates are of key importance. While much macroeconomic analysis is based on the rates that fit the yield curve, showing the interest rate structure over various maturities of debt associated with a given degree of risk. In contrast, the FF accounts throw light on the whole spectrum of interest rates, across maturities and debt qualities. For example, in analysis of the real estate market and funding of capital formation there, it is important to have a full understanding of the course of mortgage rates of different maturities and qualities. In short, it is necessary to develop a full appreciation of supply and demand forces in the mortgage market, which often is not obviously related to movements of the operative rate for monetary policy, such as very short-term inter bank rates or call money rates. This paper attempts to provide material from the flow-of-funds accounts that would make it possible to analyze the movement of relevant mortgage rates or whatever other rates are needed to understand the financing of capital formation in real estate.     

西方财务会计经验研究综述

财务会计研究发展演进的历史,是一部多种研究流派相互竞争,从而实现转化或者融合的进化史。进入20世纪70年代,经验会计研究逐渐发展起来,成为西方财务会计研究的主流。本文将对西方财务会计经验研究进行回顾,涵括市场基础会计研究和行为会计研究两大分支,并将实证会计理论作为其中的一种特殊极端形式进行简单介绍。     

中国大型航运企业市场化面对的问题及对策分析

美国的次贷危机所引发的金融危机浪潮席卷全球．对世界经济产生了极大的负面影响．全球大宗商品价格出现大幅回落．世界经济增长减缓甚至出现衰退。而作为世界经济“晴雨表”的海运业首当其冲．新船订单接连出现撤销．BDI指数连创新低,世界海运业正面临着极其严峻的挑战。面对国际航运市场不断加剧的竞争,航运企业市场化的问题也已经摆到了中国航运企业的面前。文章就中国大型航运企业市场化所面对的传统问题和在金融危机出现时的应对对策进行了简要分析并提出了相应建议。