城镇居民可支配收入——消费性支出关系协整分析

随着经济危机的深入,我国出口导向型发展模式受到极大的冲击,急需通过拉动我国居民消费需求来维持经济的平稳发展。本文利用中国城镇居民1985～2008年的数据,运用协整和误差修正模型对城镇居民的人均收入和消费之间的关系进行协整分析。结果表明:城镇居民收入与消费之间存在长期均衡关系。因此,从长期来看,要刺激消费来拉动经济增长,必须增加居民的可支配收入。     

湖南城镇居民消费结构分析

了解居民消费结构及其变化趋势,对于政府部门制定相应经济政策,具有重要参考价值。文章利用湖南城镇居民收入、消费数据,通过扩展线性支出模型(ELES),对2016年湖南城镇居民基本消费需求、边际消费倾向、需求收入弹性进行实证分析,发现消费结构中存在的问题,并在此基础上,提出了优化消费结构的政策建议。     

城镇居民家庭人均消费比例的计量分析

居民家庭消费近年来在消费中产生的影响力越来越大,本文利用1997-2016年城镇居民家庭消费基本情况,借助Eviews软件对数据进行回归建立计量模型,对城镇居民家庭各方面人均消费比例进行分析,结果表明,可支配收入是影响消费的主要因素,因此要提高家庭人均消费支出水平,关键还是要提高收入,希望本文的分析能对政府改善民生提供参考依据。     

中国城镇居民消费结构变动研究——基于ELES模型的实证分析

本文采用面板数据,分析了1981年以来中国城镇居民的消费结构变动.首先对中国城镇居民1981 ～2011年消费结构的变动情况进行了描述性分析,并对教育方面的支出进行了细致分析.其次,通过运用ELES模型,对各项消费品的需求收入弹性以及价格需求弹性进行了实证分析,分析了影响城镇居民消费支出的各项因素.最后对中国城镇居民的消费结构变动情况进行了分析与讨论.从1981年到2011年间,中国城镇居民的消费结构处于持续升级的状态,当前已经处于第三层次,但食品支出仍占较大比重,且边际消费倾向较大.     

基于修正OLS模型的湖南省城镇居民消费影响因素分析

文章对传统的OLS模型进行了改进,主要利用MATLAB作为统计分析软件对1990年至2013年湖南省城镇居民消费数据进行了分析,得出工资性收入是影响城镇居民消费的主要因素,最后提出改善湖南省城镇居民消费支出结构、扩大消费需求长效机制的对策。     

我国居民收入差距对消费影响的实证分析

改革开放以来,我国居民的总体收入水平相应大幅提高,但收入差距也不断扩大,国内居民消费需求不足。本文对我国收入差距和消费需求的现状进行介绍,并从消费率和消费结构两方面,在理论层面上分析收入差距对消费需求的影响;在实证层面上,由于我国存在城乡二元结构,本文分别对城镇内部和农村内部的居民消费性支出和基尼系数进行经典计量回归分析,得出相应结论。     

我国城镇居民消费结构状况的实证分析

文章采用扩展线性支出系统模型对我国近几年的城镇居民的基本消费需求、边际消费倾向和收入弹性进行了实证分析,同时又从静态和动态两个方面分析了城镇居民消费结构的变化趋势并提出了建议.     

泰尔(Theil)指数及其在中国的适用性检验——兼论收入分配与扩大内需

本文把衡量收入差距的泰尔指数引入消费模型,运用中国1992～ 2010年的相关数据对收入分配和有效需求之间的关系进行实证研究.结果显示:收入分配的变化会严重影响总消费规模和总消费倾向,收入分配差异会严重影响有效需求.收入分配差异和消费支出之间存在着反向的因果关系.内需不足已经成为制约中国经济发展的瓶颈,而由现行收入分配制度所带来的收入差距拉大,则是阻碍中国扩大内需战略实施及经济增长方式转变的根本因素.     

城镇居民住房消费能力统计分析——以安徽为例

本文以消费函数的基本理论为基础,结合安徽省具体情况,在对城镇居民住房消费函数分析的基础上,进一步讨论了"房价收入比"、"储蓄房价比"两个指标,并使用"储蓄房价比"这一指标优化了模型,得到了较为简约的城镇居民住房消费支出模型。由最终模型知安徽省镇居民住房消费是缺乏弹性的,主要原因是住房消费可以选择的代替品较少。     

城镇居民消费结构定量分析

基于安徽省2008年数据,运用扩展线性支出系统模型(ELES),分析各类消费品边际消费倾向和需求收入弹性等因素对城镇居民消费需求结构的影响     

中国为什么难以启动内需——基于省级动态面板数据模型的实证检验

根据中国1990～2008年各省的数据,本文使用动态面板模型对引起中国居民消费需求不足的各种原因进行验证。实证结果表明:居民收入占GDP的比重持续下降、由计划生育导致的少儿扶养比持续下降、不断攀升的行政管理费用、住房制度改革是导致我国居民消费率下降的最主要因素。其中收入GDP比、人口结构变迁、行政费用支出占总财政支出的比重和住房制度改革导致的居民消费率下降约7.1个百分点。     

Effective Rental Housing Demand in the Tokyo Metropolitan Region

This paper reports on the estimation of housing demand for tenants in Tokyo Metropolitan Region using household level data for 1993. The results indicate that the rental housing demand is inelastic with respect to permanent income and price, with coefficients as 0.31 and -0.093 respectively. Other important variables, which determine housing demand for tenants are length of stay and type of household. Larger households demand more housing. However, keeping the size of household constant, households with elderly members have higher demand for housing. The only exception to the rule is households formed with members not belonging to same nucleus family demand less housing.     

THE RELATIVE IMPORTANCE OF EXPORTS IN DETERMINING LEVELS OF REGIONAL OUTPUT AND INCOME: A Model and Empirical Evidence from Kenya

Exports have long been assumed by many to be the most important variable in driving regional growth, although factors such as government expenditure, investment demand, and remittances, among others, have also been recognized as significant. In addition, supply-side constraints to the promotion of regional growth and development have recently received increased attention in the literature. This paper evaluates the relative importance of exports, investment demand, and remittances, as well as supply-constrained agricultural production, in determining levels of regional output, value added, and household income in a single region in Kenya. The analysis is based on a mixed endogenous/ exogenous model derived from a social accounting matrix (SAM) which allows for incorporation of both demand and supply-side considerations. The paper finds that exports are, in fact, the most important factor in explaining regional output and wage income in the region studied, although not overwhelmingly so. In addition, the analysis demonstrates the importance of supply-constrained agricultural production as a determinant of income at the household level.     

Trade Liberalization and Poverty in Ecuador: A CGE Macro-Microsimulation Analysis

Cross-country analysis of the aggregate growth-poverty link is likely to miss important country-specific detail and possible offsetting forces in the underlying labour market adjustment process. This paper combines a CGE model analysis with a microsimulations approach to analyse the effects of trade liberalization on poverty and income distribution in Ecuador. The CGE model enables us to disentangle the general equilibrium effects of various trade policy scenarios on sector output, employment, factor incomes and household consumption. However, as is typical of CGE models, this analysis only provides distribution results for fairly aggregated groups of workers and a reduced number of representative households. The microsimulations approach adds the full distribution to the analysis and allows simulation of the effects of trade reform on the job status and remuneration of individual workers and thereby on household income distribution and poverty. The macro- microsimulation results indicate that the trade opening in Ecuador induced mild aggregate welfare gains, but rising income inequality due to rising wage differentials between skilled and unskilled workers implies virtually no poverty-reducing effect from trade liberalization.     

Evidence on the Demand for Mortgage Debt by Owner-Occupants

This paper explores the relationship between household mortgage debt burdens and housing consumption, periodic income, nonhousing wealth, the income tax position of the household, expected mobility, and other micro-level characteristics that proxy for household risk preferences and life cycle effects. We use 1985 and 1989 American Housing Survey data to estimate mortgage debt level equations simultaneous with house value equations, controlling for the contemporaneous nature of these two choices. We find that larger debt levels are positively associated with greater value residences and with the level of household income. Numerous household level demographic characteristics are also systematically related to mortgage demand. Of particular interest are our findings that the use of mortgage debt is affected significantly by the rate of tax savings on mortgage interest deductions and by the expected mobility of the household.     

Equity, Price Elasticity, and Household Income Under Increasing Block Rates for Water

Abstract . For an examination of the relationships between household income levels and residential water use, individual household survey data from Tucson, Arizona the combined with monthly water use data for these same households. The objectives were to examine individual response to the existing block rate pricing structure and to provide policy conclusions on potential improvements in this rate structure. A simultaneous equation model of demand is estimated for households within each income group to determine the price elasticity of demand for each income group. The demand models show that under the existing increasing block rate pricing schedules, higher income households not only use more water, but have lower elasticities of demand. Thus a uniform proportional rate increase will cause a larger percentage drop in water use among low income households than among high income households. Given the assumption of declining marginal utility of water use, this result leads to a policy recommendation for substantially steeper block rates to improve interpersonal equity in water pricing.     

生态服务的居民需求与影响因素偏效应测度——以上海市景观河流漕河泾为例

地表水环境生态服务具有公共物品特性,消费者需求信息难以获得,影响资源的有效配置和环境公共政策的科学性.应用意愿价值评估法调查496户居民上海城市景观河流水质改善的支付意愿,通过计量分析揭示影响需求的主要因素,并重点计算收入水平及差距、户籍、收入与户籍交互作用因素的边际影响.结果既符合消费理论的一般预期,也充分反映了我国转型经济阶段的社会特殊性.     

城乡炫耀性消费差异的根源探索

运用中国家庭追踪调查数据,研究发现:农村家庭的炫耀性消费支出比例显著高于城镇家庭,且这一结果随时间变化比较稳健。进一步研究发现,在考虑了家庭参照群体的平均收入之后,城乡炫耀性消费差异不再显著,且参照群体的平均收入对家庭炫耀性消费的影响显著为负。这很可能来源于家庭为寻求社会地位而消费的动机,更高的社会地位意味着更多的财富和带来更高的收益。炫耀性消费充当了家庭社会地位的信号,向其参照群体传递了自身的收入水平状况,参照群体的平均收入越低,消费者寻求社会地位的消费动机越强。农村家庭参照群体的平均收入较低,所以其寻求社会地位的动机更强、炫耀性消费水平更高。因此,寻求社会地位的消费动机是城乡炫耀性消费差异的主要原因。     

Using a Demand System to Estimate Extended Input–Output Multipliers

The interface between household income and expenditure has always been considered to be a key component in the construction of input–output models. However, it can be argued that households are too often treated as if they were just another in dustry in the input–output table. In this paper, we seek to address this problem by developing a new modelling framework in which a micro demand system is used to estim ate the relationship between income and expenditure. This demand system is conjoined with an input–output table for the UK economy, and the system as a whole is solved as a computable general equilibrium model. Comparisons are made between the Jacobian multipliers generated by this model and those derived from a more traditional input–output model in which the income-expenditure linkage is estimated using static coefficients.     

Intraurban residential mobility: The role of transactions costs, market imperfections, and household disequilibrium

This paper presents a model of household residential search and mobility that focuses on microeconomic elements of household behavior and incorporates housing market features. The model is cast explicitly in terms of a rigorous model of housing demand, allowing the benefits from moving to be measured as the compensating income variation of the potential change in consumption. The empirical results indicate that large changes in economic variables, such as income and prices produce only small potential gains from moving and that a major factor in the moving decision is the magnitude of search and moving costs.