基于土地杠杆的住房价格动态分解

住房可分为土地和依附于土地的建筑物两部分。基于土地杠杆基本概念,利用我国35个大中型城市数据,将住房价格动态分解为土地价格和建筑物价格,考察我国住房价格增长中土地增值的贡献比例与速度。对土地杠杆假说的实证检验发现,拥有更高土地杠杆的住房,其增值速度会更快。通过对土地杠杆假说的实证研究,对于了解潜在的房价决定机制、价格指数建立、土地利用限制的成本评估,以及制定住房政策和评估住房市场的合理性等,都具有重要的作用。     

我国房地产市场的特征与定价机制剖析北大核心

住房价格决定模型可以反映我国房地产市场特征,其中包括家庭、政府和房地产商的行为分析。在家庭行为方面,该模型引入CES偏好,用地段变量来刻画公共基础设施对住房质量的影响;在住房生产环节,将土地、中间产品和劳动等生产要素引入生产函数,反映土地垄断、关联产业链和中间产品对房地产价格的影响,获得住宅生产的投入和产出关系;在住房销售环节,用资源约束模型刻画房地产商的销控和定价行为。该模型抓住了我国房地产行业的主要特点,反映了居民消费和收入预期、财务杠杆、土地垄断、成本推动、公共基础设施等因素对房地产价格的影响。     

不同类型调控政策对房地产市场影响的实证分析——以江苏省为例

近年来,国家对房地产宏观调控采取的多种政策,可划分为五类,即房地产开发投资规模、土地供应、金融信贷、住房供给结构、税收等政策。文中就这五类政策对房地产市场的影响进行了实证分析和定性分析。实证分析中采取了12个指标,利用了向量自回归模型和广义脉冲响应函数,就五类调控政策和市场形势对住房价格、成交量以及住房需求的影响时间和影响程度进行分析。定性分析中主要分析利率、税收、广义货币供应量M2、高房价等四个因素变化对住房价格、成交量以及住房需求的影响。     

我国商品住房价格的计量经济模型预测研究

通过建立计量经济模型,对我国商品住房的价格进行实证分析,找出了影响商品住房价格的诸多因素。研究结果表明,人均可支配收入和竣工房屋造价是影响商品住房价格的显著性因素。基于模型结果提出了政策建议。     

上市公司股份回购动机研究：来自中国的证据

文章依据国外学者提出的回购动机假说并采用多变量回归模型对我国上市公司股份回购的行为进行实证分’析发现,信号传递假说、自由现金流假说在我国股票回购的动机具有一定的解释力,而财务灵活性假说及杠杆假说到目前为止尚不能解释我国股票回购动机。     

我国将采取五项措施保障中低收入家庭住房

最近,住房和城乡建设部表示,我国将采取五项措施保障中低收入家庭住房:——强化城市规划的调控作用,中低价位普通商品住房和经济适用住房项目建设在项目选址定点上予以保证;规划审批中,要优先审查,加快工作进度。——加大土地供应调控力度。对居住用地价格、住房价格上涨过快的     

城市居民住房购买力研究——以我国35个大城市为例

针对近年来我国房价高企,住房负担日益加重,不同地区居民购房能力差异较大等问题,分析了现有居民住房购买力测算方法,将住房价格与居民收入、消费水平、区域发展水平、住房市场的供应结构、信贷水平等因素结合起来,提出了新的测算思路和方法,并以我国35个大城市为例,对2009年城市居民住房购买力进行了实证研究。通过不同地区城市居民的住房购买能力的比较,分析城市居民购房能力的区域不均衡性问题,为制定相关住房政策提供参考。     

部委信息

国土资源部:调控土地供应确保房价稳定为具体落实七部委《关于做好稳定住房价格工作的意见》,国土资源部土地利用司有关负责人日前表示,国土部将在两方面下功夫:一方面要通过土地调控措施来保证中低价位、中小套型住房的有效供应;另一方面,在抑制商品住房价格上涨过快方面,在严格执行土地利用总体规划和土地利用计划的前提下,根据房地产市场变化情况,适时调整土地供应结构、供应方式及供应时间。这位负责人称,在改善住房供应结构不合理方面,对中低价位普通商品住房建设项目,在供应土地前,由城市规划主管部门依据控制性详细规划出具建筑高度…     

社区土地信托制度及其与经济适用房制度的比较

美国社区土地信托制度是解决低收入家庭住房问题的一种模式.在社区土地信托制度下,社区土地信托公司或组织持有土地所有权,低收入买房人得到的只是房屋所有权和一定年限的土地使用权.因住房价格中不包含土地价格部分,从而保证了低收入家庭对住房价格的可负担性.社区土地信托的住房保障资源的可循环利用、非营利组织运作、促进社区发展的视角等优点,对完善经济适用房制度具有借鉴意义.     

我国采取五项措施保障中低收入家庭住房

建设部称，我国采取五项措施保障中低收入家庭住房。一、强化城市规划的调控作用，中低价位普通商品住房和经济适用住房项目建设在项目选址定点上予以保证。规划审批中，要优先审查，加快工作进度；二、加大土地供应调控力度。对居住用地价格、住房价格上涨过快的城市，适当增加中低价位普通商品住房和经济适用住房建设用地供应量。对因旧城改造城市拆迁涉及的中低价位普通商品住房建设项目，     

保障房用地规划现存问题影响因素分析

通过社会调查、理论分析和比较研究相结合的方法,对我国当前城市保障性住房用地规划中的问题及其制度约束进行了深入分析。认为我国城市保障房制度的政策体系尚不完善,导致用地选址困难、配套设施滞后和区域布局失衡等问题,其制度根源在于地方财政偏好、保障房区位干扰、建设空间限制、房价收入比大、集体建设用地市场化不足等方面。通过比较国际经验,提出了加强组织协调、编制专项规划、建立多样化的建设模式、加快配套制度改革等政策建议。     

地价与房价的因果关系——基于武汉市的实证研究

研究目的——探讨地价与房价的因果关系。研究方法——实证研究法和计量经济学方法。研究结果——在中短期,地价是一个相对独立的变动过程,不受房价的影响,而房价却受到地价的显著影响;从长期来看,房价对地价的影响开始增强,但总不及地价对房价的影响,地价一直占主导地位。研究结论——在调控房价时,应先稳定地价。房地产价格调控需要从四个方面着手：一是革除地方政府对土地财政的依赖;二是调整土地政策,增加土地供应量;三是加大保障性住房建设力度;四是打击房地产投机。     

LAND MARKETS AND THE EFFECT OF REGULATION ON FORMAL-SECTOR DEVELOPMENT IN URBAN INDONESIA

Until recently, urban land and housing markets in Indonesia seemed to function well. Informal-sector development provided low-income housing affordably. Through government programs, formal-sector developers could build housing for all but the poor. Since 1989, however, daily conversation pictures land speculation as rampant and formal-sector housing as rising beyond the means of the middle class. Newspapers carry stories of conflicts between small landowners and large developers with government officials in between. This article investigates this situation by addressing two related questions: are urban land prices rising “too fast?”; how do land regulations and development practices affect costs, and who pays these costs? The article includes quantitative estimates of urban land prices, changes in urban land supply, movement of land through the permitting process, and the effect of development regulations on costs. Data come from a literature survey and interviews of some of the largest formal-sector developers in Indonesia. A principal finding concerns a development regulation called a “location permit” and the “social function” of land in Indonesian law. Although helpful as a means of assembling land in Indonesia's highly fragmented land markets, location permits allow formal-sector developers to hold land off the market and pay low prices to small landowners. Ultimately, the “social function” of land under Indonesian law holds down the price formal-sector developers pay for land, but not at the price at which they sell their product. The article concludes by proposing reforms to the regulatory process.     

地价与房价的因果关系——基于武汉市的实证研究

研究目的——探讨地价与房价的因果关系。研究方法——实证研究法和计量经济学方法。研究结果——在中短期,地价是一个相对独立的变动过程,不受房价的影响,而房价却受到地价的显著影响;从长期来看,房价对地价的影响开始增强,但总不及地价对房价的影响,地价一直占主导地位。研究结论——在调控房价时,应先稳定地价。房地产价格调控需要从四个方面着手:一是革除地方政府对土地财政的依赖;二是调整土地政策,增加土地供应量;三是加大保障性住房建设力度;四是打击房地产投机。     

Urban housing density and the price of housing services

Theoretical research has shown that urban housing density, defined as housing services per unit of land, is an increasing function of the price of housing services. However, this concept of density hides as well as provides information because housing services per unit of land equals the product of housing services per dwelling unit and dwelling units per unit of land. This paper proves that housing density, defined as dwelling units per unit of land, can vary either directly or inversely with the price of housing services.     

轨道交通对城市住房发展的影响综述

从轨道交通对城市住房价格和空间分布、居住用地开发强度的影响及影响的时效性等各方面综述了国内外研究进展,得出以下结论:除个别区域和时段外,轨道交通将引起沿线住房价格上涨,位于郊区、开发成熟度低的地区和中等价值的住房价格上涨最为明显;轨道交通将引起沿线居住用地开发强度的提高,提高的幅度与站点的功能关系密切;轨道交通吸引住房需求向轨道线路和站点附近集聚,并使市中心的居住需求向郊区转移,加快郊区化进程,同时改变中心区住房的类型结构,最终改变城市的空间结构;轨道交通对住房价格的影响具有时效性,影响程度随规划、施工、运营等不同时期而不同。     

The down-payment constraint and UK housing market: Does the theory fit the facts?

This paper considers empirical implications of the down-payment constraint for the UK housing market. It shows that, at the aggregate-level, models of the housing market with this constraint are consistent with a number of stylized facts. The paper then exploits variation across local housing markets and considers how leverage affects the response of house price inflation to shocks. The evidence, based on data for 147 district-level housing markets for the period 1993–2002, suggests that a large incidence of households with high leverage (loan-to-value ratios) raises the sensitivity of house prices to a shock. This is also consistent with the down-payment constraint model.     

地价与房价关系探析

在对房地产市场结构、运行模式分析的基础上,分析并阐述地价与房价之间的关系。为了清楚揭示这二者之间的关系,首先对“地价是否是房价的决定因素”这个问题进行了探讨,并在此基础上从市场角度出发,沿着市场→房价→地价这条主线,揭示在市场作用下受供求关系的影响房价不断攀升,而且有力推动地价上涨。接着,继续研究地价、房价的变动对房地产市场所产生的影响,揭示了当前地价、房价的上涨不但没有降低需求热度,反而使开发商和购房者的购买欲更旺,市场的供求差距进一步拉大,以此形成一个循环正反馈链。最后,针对房价上涨,对中央政府和地方政府的协调行为提出了几点建议。     

The Neoliberalization of Municipal Land Policy in Sweden

In Sweden, local governments’ practice of the ‘municipal land instrument’—that is, the use of public land ownership as a tool for facilitating urban development—has a long tradition. In the post‐war era, public land ownership constituted an important component of state‐led housing production, which had both a productive and a redistributive purpose. Departing from a political economy perspective, this article demonstrates how the redistributive aspect of the municipal land instrument has been dissolved under neoliberalization, and discusses why the use of this instrument is problematic from both a democratic and ethical point of view. Based on a case study in Helsingborg, the article argues that, in using public land to leverage private investment in urban development, local decision makers adopt an interest in supporting rent extraction from tenants and housing owners, while subsidizing investment costs for developers. The dual role that municipalities assume as landowner‐developers and planning authorities enable them to facilitate urban development effectively, but it is also problematic because it transgresses the public–private law divide inherent to Swedish law. Assuming this dual role, municipalities place themselves in a biased position that risks undermining the legitimacy of governmental actions in general, and the planning system in particular.     

Patterns of growth in Chinese cities: Implications of the land lease

A special feature of China’s housing market is land use rights in the form of land leasehold contracts granted by the government. We consider an equilibrium model in which a representative developer may choose to redevelop existing centrally located housing or to develop new housing at the periphery of the city. We show that as the city grows, the land leasehold system results in the city center being developed less intensely and more land being used on the outskirts of the city when compared to a fee simple environment. Thus, cities in China are likely to be relatively more spread out, with city centers relatively older than would be the case with “fee simple” ownership. Our model suggests that excess residential land use is about 6 percent. In addition, compared with the ownership case, housing supply will grow more quickly in the near future, but more slowly later on during the transition of the Chinese economy. Parallel to the supply growth pattern, equilibrium price grows relative slowly in the near future, but more quickly later on. While we focus on residential uses, we believe our model can be applied to other land uses.