基于PVAR模型的流通业对城乡收入差距影响研究——以江苏为例

文章选取江苏13市2005~2017年的统计数据,建立PVAR模型,重点分析了流通业发展、城镇化及其控制变量对城乡收入差距的影响程度。研究结果表明江苏城镇化与流通业总值和结构之间存在持续显著的正向促进作用;城镇化、流通业发展有助于缩小城乡收入差距;控制变量中,外商直接投资、产业结构的影响显著。因此,在提高城镇化水平、促进流通业协调发展、缩小城乡收入差距的同时,也需要加强外资引进力度、优化产业结构。     

Mimic,an alternative programming language for industrial dynamics

One of the recent quantitative tools available to economists and planners, in business and government, is a technique known as industrial dynamics (Refs. [2, 3, 5, 8]). After briefly describing this technique, this article shows how the MIMIC language can be used as a short-cut to industrial dynamics computations. The intent is to describe this programming language in sufficient detail to allow the reader to judge its capabilities and ease of use.     

产业演进视角下我国化肥产业的战略选择

文章从产业演进的视角,通过分析化肥产业的发展变迁和产业环境,研究我国化肥产业的发展趋势和战略选择,指出我国化肥产业必然会出现企业提速发展和产业加快整合的趋势,从而形成行业巨头。因此,化肥产业中不同发展阶段的企业应选择不一样的发展战略和经营策略;其中,整合产业链和回归企业竞争基本面是重要的选择之一。     

工业设计产业协同创新模式研究

产业协同创新是解决目前国内工业设计产业普遍存在的企业规模小、创新能力弱等问题的有效途径。有效的工业设计产业协同创新模式是企业内部协同、工业设计企业与制造企业间协同、工业设计产业链上成员间协同及创新网络成员间协同的耦合。     

Applications of Statistics in the Field of General Insurance: An Overview

This is an expository paper on applications of statistics in the field of general insurance, also called non‐life insurance. Unlike life insurance where advanced statistical techniques have long been part of financial mathematics and actuarial applications, their use is only relatively recent in non‐life insurance. The business model of insurance companies, especially those active in non‐life insurance, has seen dramatic changes over the last 15 years. The aim of this paper is to convince the readers that especially today non‐life insurance is not only an exciting ground to apply existing modern statistical tools but also a fertile environment for new and challenging statistical developments. The activities of an insurance company can be viewed as an industrial process where data management and data analysis play a key role. That is why a fundamental understanding of data‐related issues (such as data quality, variability, analysis and correct interpretation) is so essential to the insurance business. These are exactly the tasks where professional statisticians excel. Also, a better understanding of the field of general insurance by statisticians will promote fruitful exchanges between actuaries and statisticians, thereby helping to bring actuarial and statistical professional societies closer to each other. Selected examples are used to cover the essential aspects of general insurance, and all of them are based on the author's experience. The paper concludes with some remarks on the role of statisticians working in general insurance.     

城镇化视角下长三角城市群产业结构优化与城乡收入差距

为了研究产业结构优化对城乡收入差距的影响,并考虑城镇化在其中的作用,选取长三角城市群为研究对象,使用泰尔指数对城乡收入差距进行测度,运用2009—2018年的面板数据,从产业结构高级化与产业结构合理化角度对城镇化在产业结构优化对城乡收入差距影响中发挥的作用进行实证检验。研究结果表明:产业结构优化有利于缩小城乡收入差距,城镇化在产业结构高级化与城乡收入差距的关系中发挥了中介效应;城镇化在产业结构合理化对城乡收入差距的影响中存在显著的双门槛效应:当城镇化水平较低时,产业结构合理化会缩小城乡收入差距,当城镇化水平超过72.9%时,产业结构合理化会扩大城乡收入差距。基于此,提出了优化第三产业内部结构和农村经济结构、合理规划城市发展的政策建议。     

经营战略形态的组成项目研究

经营战略强调的是多元化企业中的各SBU或单一业务的企业在特定产业领域中的生存、竞争与发展之道,因此在战略层级中处于承上启下的关键位置。但当前对经营战略分析过于偏重于工具如SWOT分析或偏重于针对某个特定公司和产业来进行,缺乏整体性。分析经营战略应立足于其本质即描述特定业务当前的经营战略形态和未来某一时间点该经营战略形态的变化情况,战略形态则通过一些项目来共同描述,这样的分析不但思路简明清晰,而且考虑全面,能有助于提升企业经营战略管理的有效性。     

Reconfiguring the innovation policy portfolios for Taiwan's SIP Mall industry

Since the year 2000, silicon intellectual property (SIP), which can minimize the gap in ‘design productivity’ that exists with systems-on-chip (SOC), has become one of the most important factors in the development of integrated circuit (IC) products in the SOC era. Although SIP is very important for IC industry development, complicated business, technical as well as legal issues inside SIP transactions have hindered successful transactions and the integration of SIPs into SOCs. Thus, web-based SIP e-Commerce mechanisms, called SIP Malls, have emerged, aiming to resolve complex SIP issues. To maintain its leading position and competitiveness in the World's IC industry, as well as the value added by SOC products in Taiwanese IC firms, the Taiwanese government has developed SIP Malls, using innovation policy tools. However, the Taiwanese SIP Mall industry remains immature. No existing Taiwanese SIP Malls generate a profit or account for a significant share of worldwide SIP transactions. This research will develop an analytical framework for defining an innovation policy portfolio that aims to develop Taiwan's SIP Mall industry, so that it will enhance the value added of SIP Malls and, thus, the nation's competitiveness in the SIP and IC industries, something which already has become one of the Taiwanese government's major concerns. The industry innovation requirements (IIRs) are summarized using the Delphi method. Meanwhile, the major IIRs identified by Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) are introduced. After the IIRs are derived, the relationships between the IIRs and innovation policy tools are derived by Grey relational analysis (GRA). Then, the innovation policy tools are clustered, based upon the Grey grades derived by GRA. Finally, reconfigured innovation policy portfolios are presented for the Taiwanese government's policy definition. The results demonstrate that developing an innovative policy portfolio that includes scientific, technical, educational, public enterprise, information, legal and regulatory, financial, and taxation policy tools will be the most necessary step towards developing Taiwan's SIP Mall industry.     

文化旅游产业链治理模式研究

文化是旅游的灵魂,旅游是文化的重要载体。从产业发展的视角看,旅游产业与文化产业相互融合,相得益彰,密不可分。在企业及区域之间的竞争愈趋于以产业链竞争为主要竞争形式的语境中,本文基于产业组织及产业发展理论,沿循文化旅游"产业链界定—产业链构成要素—产业链治理影响因素—产业链治理模式选择"的思路,对文化旅游产业链治理模式进行了探索,旨在进一步深化对文化旅游产业链治理模式的研究。     

Foundational Value of Statistics Education for Management Curriculum

The purpose of this paper is to propose a unique and distinct value of statistics education for management. The 1986 inaugural conference on Making Statistics More Effective in Schools of Business (MSMESB) proposed valuable guidelines for reforming statistics education in schools of business. However, a survey conducted by McAlevey & Everett (2001) identified that their impact has been minimal, and argued that structural problems many business schools have are the potential cause. We argue these structural problems exist because the value of the body of statistical tools for management is ambiguous and has not been made explicit. The unique and distinct value of statistics for management can be identified as the body of tools necessary to meet the inherent needs of a manager charged with making predictive judgments facing data. The need arises because human information‐processing capacity is quite limited, as the findings of researchers in cognitive psychology testify. These findings also affirm that the basic statistical concepts needed for processing data cannot be learned from management experiences. The model of a manager faced with data, while considering the evidence of inherent limitations of human information‐processing capacity, establishes the foundational value of statistics training in the management curriculum. Statistics education in business schools will be made more effective when management educators recognize such value of the discipline, lend their support and reward the ownership commitment for continuous improvement and innovations of the business statistics curriculum.     

Startup team contributions and new firm creation: the role of founding team experience

The likelihood of nascent entrepreneurs making the transition from a new venture idea to a profitable business is argued to be contingent on the breadth of the resources available within the startup team. Team industry and startup experience are deemed to influence the entrepreneurs’ ability to profitably establish the venture in the market via the mobilization of team resources. Using a sample of nascent entrepreneurs in the USA, we show that team resource heterogeneity has a positive impact on profitable firm creation. Moreover, this positive effect is greater as the team has more experience in the industry in which the new business will compete.     

Environmental factors in the management of new product development: Theoretical framework and some empirical evidence from the white goods industry

Concern about the nature and consequences of industrial progress has had an increasing impact on industry. Some commentators have suggested that environmental pressures will advance to the point where they cease to be one of the many strategic issues facing industry and become the very framework within which all other business issues are considered. This paper aims to address the implications of evolving environmental concern over the management of product development. It develops a conceptual framework to analyse the process of managing product development while taking into account the environmental attributes of products. The paper moves on to consider the implications of such a conceptual framework against the empirical evidence emerging about product development in the white goods industry. Finally, conclusions are drawn about the nature of organisational change in business as it adjusts to the environmental agenda and suggestions are made about the significance of the findings of this research to product development in other industries.     

融合生态学观点的业态与业态创新：兼论与商业模式的比较

引入生态学观点,重新界定业态的概念,提出包含营业形态、经营形态、企业形态、企业生态、产业形态和产业生态的“六位双层一体”架构;从概念范畴、表现形式、可复制性、创新来源、社会责任侧重以及关注焦点等方面探讨了业态与商业模式的区别;在此基础上,凝练了业态创新的路径,即从企业内要素的整合到企业间要素的协同,结合价值创造流程创建企业开放式创新生态网络,以开放式协同创新和企业自主创新撬动产业形态变革和产业结构升级,以及明确生态位,在产业共生中形成产业生态系统。     

基于GAP的煤矿远程多业务监测系统的研究

在煤矿企业信息网与井下工业控制网络互连时常常会涉及到数据安全问题,尤其是井下工业控制网络当中有关安全生产监测的控制信息。本文采用安全隔离网闸机制,并在传统监测系统中嵌入GIS、语音、短信、视频等联动业务,为现代化煤矿的综合自动化提供安全可靠的信息平台。     

高效工业市场的探讨

构建了一个高效工业体系框架,既改进企业内部工业系统运行效率,强调系统经济运行的管理和监督,又促进外部市场的运作模式从产品单体交易到工业系统优化服务的转变,最终实现高效工业市场的转型。     

Assessing people-driven factors for circular economy practices in small and medium-sized enterprise supply chains: Business strategies and environmental perspectives

Globalisation and technological advancements have increased the pressure on small businesses to increase their productivity and to gain competitive advantages. That pressure has been placed on the resources available, resulting in increased environmental degradation as a result of the traditional linear model of make-use-dispose. Circular economy (CE) practices offer the opportunity for sustainable production based on the reuse-remanufacture and recycling of resources for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to increase their sustainability, resulting in enhanced performance levels in terms of business strategies and environmental perspectives. But in academic literature, the role of people-driven factors (PDFs) in the adoption of CE practices in the supply chains (SCs) of SMEs is limited. Therefore, to fill this literature gap, this research looks at analysing PDFs for the implementation of CE in the SMEs in developing countries in two phases. PDFs are identified from an extensive literature review; a DEMATEL technique is then employed to understand the significant influence of each factor in the adoption of CE practices in SCs by dividing them into cause–effect groups. The findings show that PDFs such as training and knowledge sharing, employee participation, leadership and management plus strategic alignment are considered to be the most important significant factors in the adoption. The findings of this study will help industrial managers to understand the significance of the role of PDFs for enhancing business strategies; these findings can reduce the negative environmental impact in the adoption of CE practices in the SCs of SMEs.     

商务成本与上海新一轮发展

在第三产业,特别是现代服务业没有得到充分发展的情况下,上海商务成本的迅速提高导致对上海投资的趋缓,如何正确、全面、辨证地研究和控制上海的商务成本,发挥应对入世的先试先行优势,提高城市综合竞争力,发展现代服务业,走新型工业化道路是上海在新一轮发展中必须面对的一个重大课题。     

Non‐parametric Analysis of Gap Times for Multiple Event Data: An Overview

Multiple event data are frequently encountered in medical follow‐up, engineering and other applications when the multiple events are considered as the major outcomes. They may be repetitions of the same event (recurrent events) or may be events of different nature. Times between successive events (gap times) are often of direct interest in these applications. The stochastic‐ordering structure and within‐subject dependence of multiple events generate statistical challenges for analysing such data, including induced dependent censoring and non‐identifiability of marginal distributions. This paper provides an overview of a class of existing non‐parametric estimation methods for gap time distributions for various types of multiple event data, where sampling bias from induced dependent censoring is effectively adjusted. We discuss the statistical issues in gap time analysis, describe the estimation procedures and illustrate the methods with a comparative simulation study and a real application to an AIDS clinical trial. A comprehensive understanding of challenges and available methods for non‐parametric analysis can be useful because there is no existing standard approach to identifying an appropriate gap time method that can be used to address research question of interest. The methods discussed in this review would allow practitioners to effectively handle a variety of real‐world multiple event data.     

产业集聚视角下区域性人力资本积累新模式探讨——以河南省为例的分析

目前河南省许多产业集聚区都面临比较明显的人力资本缺口,而原有的职业教育模式在实践中却难以在短时期内弥补这种缺口。通过构建职业教育与产业融合发展新模式,可以更加合理配置职业教育资源,提高区域范围内人力资本积累效率,最终形成一个以职业教育与培训中心为核心,以毗邻产业集聚区为外围的联系紧密的利益共同体,从而使产业集聚区域内企业能够在较短时期内积累大量合格的专业人才,有效缓解人力资本缺口对企业发展的约束。     

快递业升级能力评价及提升对策

我国快递业处于快速发展期,但是发展过程中存在一系列问题,需要进行产业升级,因此针对快递业的升级要求和快递业的发展特点,构建了快递业升级能力评价指标体系,并运用无需确定指标权重的突变级数法对快递业升级能力进行评价。本文选取我国快递业务总收入排名前16位的省市作为研究对象,结合相关数据对16个省市的快递业升级能力进行定量研究。根据升级能力得分情况,将16个省市划分为甲、乙、丙三类集团,并对其进行了综合分析,指出了快递业升级中存在的问题,有针对性地提出了快递业升级对策。