我国寿险业运营风险实证研究

基于承保、投资和偿付等三个业务环节的相关指标,构建了我国寿险运营绩效评价指标体系,运用因子分析方法对我国寿险业2005年-2007年运营状况进行分析并揭示其风险,结果表明:我国寿险业具有明显的垄断竞争格局,且这一趋势逐年弱化;三年中大部分寿险公司运营绩效有所提升,特别是2007年各寿险公司运营状况均有所改善,整个行业运营风险有较为显著的降低,究其原因,可能与我国寿险业承保业务的平稳增长和投资领域的扩大等诸多因素有关。     

Using Statistics and Statistical Thinking to Improve Organisational Performance

A systematic approach to measuring organisational performance is fundamental to the pursuit of business excellence. As such, the area of organisational performance measurement, and its use of data and analysis to inform business decisions, affords statisticians a potentially high value-adding opportunity. To be effective in this area, statisticians need to appreciate the differing requirements for statistical information in various management zones of an enterprise.
This paper describes a strategy that seeks to link measurement to all facets of organisational performance, particularly to desired business outcomes, and also to mesh measurement with process improvement in a natural way. The use of statistics and statistical thinking is then discussed in this context, with particular focus on the opportunity for statisticians to have a key role at the top decision-making level of the organisation. We argue that the role requires skills in both advanced technical statistical modelling and analysis, and in statistical thinking. It also requires a preparedness to form an appreciation of the business and management imperatives faced by the leaders of an enterprise, and a willingness to work from this basis.     

Non‐parametric Analysis of Gap Times for Multiple Event Data: An Overview

Multiple event data are frequently encountered in medical follow‐up, engineering and other applications when the multiple events are considered as the major outcomes. They may be repetitions of the same event (recurrent events) or may be events of different nature. Times between successive events (gap times) are often of direct interest in these applications. The stochastic‐ordering structure and within‐subject dependence of multiple events generate statistical challenges for analysing such data, including induced dependent censoring and non‐identifiability of marginal distributions. This paper provides an overview of a class of existing non‐parametric estimation methods for gap time distributions for various types of multiple event data, where sampling bias from induced dependent censoring is effectively adjusted. We discuss the statistical issues in gap time analysis, describe the estimation procedures and illustrate the methods with a comparative simulation study and a real application to an AIDS clinical trial. A comprehensive understanding of challenges and available methods for non‐parametric analysis can be useful because there is no existing standard approach to identifying an appropriate gap time method that can be used to address research question of interest. The methods discussed in this review would allow practitioners to effectively handle a variety of real‐world multiple event data.     

Analyzing manufacturer and the insurance-based risk mitigation policy with equipment service contracting

ABSTRACT

Manufacturing are recently investing in performance provision for customers focusing on equipment availability. However, performance-based contracts (PBC) between them suffer from the risks of downtime, opportunistic behavior, financial distress etc. We study the PBC strategy considering insurance-based risk mitigation policy. The service process with increasing failure rate is focused on where manufacturers decide to repair and replace by the equipment retirement age. The business interruption (BI) insurance is jointly purchased. Results show that insurance and PBC incentive exist partial substitutes and interactions. BI insurance not only mitigates PBC-induced risks but also provides a feasible way for improving the usage life.     

基层寿险公司公共危机成因及应对策略研究

寿险业是一个承担着巨大风险的行业,这就要求它对危机要具有很强的敏感性。寿险业的诞生、成长和发展历程,证明了它在不断地应对危机和规避风险。近年来,基层公司面临的公共危机日益增多,对寿险从业人员特别是基层管理者提出严峻的挑战。文章分析了基层寿险公司产生公共关系危机的原因,阐述了正确认识公共危机的重要意义,提出处理公共危机一般性策略。     

保险业客户关系管理问题及对策研究--以太平洋保险公司为例

近年来,随着我国经济的快速发展,我国保险业一直保持着持续、快速的发展态势。太平洋保险公司作为一家以电销为主营业务的人寿险公司,在保费收入不断增长的同时,客户流失率却一直居高不下,严重制约了公司的发展。论文以太平洋保险公司电销客户关系管理为研究对象,深入剖析电销客户关系管理存在的问题与原因,并提出相应的改进策略,以助于改善该公司电销客户关系管理水平,降低客户的流失率,实现保费和利润的双增长。     

保险公司业务承载网络的优化改造实践

保险业务管理系统对数据的安全性、实时性有着特殊的要求,加上公司管理水平不断提升,只有建设安全、高效的网络,才能跟上公司业务及管理水平迅速提高的步伐。因此我们在原有组建DDN数据网实际经验的基础上,就保险公司业务承载网络进行改造优化,本文主要阐述了公司网络优化改造方案及其实践。     

Statistics in Business and Industry: Implementation

There are many statistical tools available to be utilized for general business improvement and industrial problem solving. However, there is a wide gap between the tools available and those that are actually used in business and industrial organizations. Thus it is important for statisticians to direct serious attention to bridging this gap if statistics is to be relevant in business and industry. In this paper we look at some ideas for implementing statistical methods in business and industry.     

Forecasting Macroeconomic Labour Market Flows: What Can We Learn from Micro‐level Analysis?

Forecasting labour market flows is important for budgeting and decision‐making in government departments and public administration. Macroeconomic forecasts are normally obtained from time series data. In this article, we follow another approach that uses individual‐level statistical analysis to predict the number of exits out of unemployment insurance claims. We present a comparative study of econometric, actuarial and statistical methodologies that base on different data structures. The results with records of the German unemployment insurance suggest that prediction based on individual‐level statistical duration analysis constitutes an interesting alternative to aggregate data‐based forecasting. In particular, forecasts of up to six months ahead are surprisingly precise and are found to be more precise than considered time series forecasts.     

加快黑龙江省农业保险人才培养的设想及对策

农业保险专业性强,涉及植物学、畜牧学、气象学、经济学、保险学、管理学等多学科,需要专业人才的支撑。但由于前些年农业保险业务一度萎缩,导致大量农业保险人才流失,有着丰富农业保险实践经验的专业人才寥寥无几,现有农业保险从业人员中,往往是懂保险的人不熟悉农业,而熟悉农业的人又不懂保险。因此,培养大量既懂农业又精通保险的农业保险人才迫在眉睫。本文拟从我国农业保险人才的特点和现状出发,结合险企和高校实际,提出加快培养农业保险人才的一些设想以及高校保险教育培养农险人才的具体对策。     

The European Union's Proposed Equality and Data Protection Rules: An Existential Problem for Insurers?

Insurance companies use personal data to price personal insurance risks. Innovative data‐collection and processing strategies, including big data, offer the potential for better analysis of traditional risks and for markets in new types of insurance. This paper examines the potential for EU data protection and anti‐discrimination legislation – both existing and proposed – to threaten not only this potential but also the traditional personal insurance business. It offers a strategy based upon codes of practice and technological innovation that would allow insurers to protect their business and to innovate while meeting the concerns of legislators about discrimination and data protection.     

Misuses of Statistics: Lessons for Statisticians, Non-statisticians, Students and Teachers

A bstract . Statisticians, students, teachers and even non statisticians can learn from a study of misuses of statistics. The practitioners can improve their use of statistical methods in research , the student can learn the correct method of analysis and the effects of incorrect analysis, the teacher can improve teaching and the non statistician can learn to evaluate statistical inputs to decision making All users of statistics, professional and nonprofessional, can benefit from the same examples. In this paper, the authors categorize misuses, by both the nature and effect of the misuse, and give examples for each category.     

Environmental Statistics: Current and Future

Since 1900, statistics has prospered and established for itself a central place in science and technology, as can be seen from the wide application of its methods to almost all facets of life. The primary concern of statistics is to develop a logical and efficient system for information acquisition and analysis that is geared towards broad applications. Such a system has its roots and extensions in case studies from many scientific disciplines and in the collaboration between statisticians and other scientists. During the past three decades statisticians have become actively involved in the development and use of quantitative methods to understand and solve environmental problems. These activities are commonly called Environmetrics. In this paper we review the main features of current Environmetrics research and outreach activities. The paper is structured around typical examples drawn mainly from water quality and climate change to illustrate the type of problems involved, the statistical approaches used to address them, and the new statistical methods required for their solution. In addition we shall also briefly describe efforts made at the international level to link the statisticians working in the field together and with environmental scientists.     

Celebrating the Memory of Corrado Gini: a Personality Out of the Ordinary

Corrado Gini was one of the most brilliant and internationally recognized scientists of the Italian School of Statistics. This paper, written on the occasion of the 50th anniversary of his death, recalls the key aspects of his life and his extraordinary scientific contributions. In describing his impressive mind, interdisciplinary interests, his long and significant academic life, his immense scientific production, and his commitment to official statistics, we must also take into account the particular historical period that Gini lived in. But the most relevant and honourable of his acknowledgements is the impact he undeniably had and still has on the international scientific community of statisticians and non‐statisticians.     

A Two‐Step Procedure to Measure Representativeness of Internet Data Sources

So far, statistics has mainly relied on information collected from censuses and sample surveys, which are used to produce statistics about selected characteristics of the population. However, because of cost cuts and increasing non‐response in sample surveys, statisticians have started to search for new sources of information, such as registers, Internet data sources (IDSs, i.e. web portals) or big data. Administrative sources are already used for purposes of official statistics, while the suitability of the latter two sources is currently being discussed in the literature. Unfortunately, only a few papers devoted to statistical theory point out methodological problems related to the use of IDSs, particularly in the context of survey methodology. The unknown generation mechanism and the complexity of such data are often neglected in view of their size. Hence, before IDSs can be used for statistical purposes, especially for official statistics, they need to be assessed in terms of such fundamental issues as representativeness, non‐sampling errors or bias. The paper attempts to fill the first gap by proposing a two‐step procedure to measure representativeness of IDSs. The procedure will be exemplified using data about the secondary real estate market in Poland.     

试论2010年-2011年中国东北三省一盟地区医院业务收入的影响因素

研究2010年-2011年中国东北三省一盟地区医院业务收入的影响因素,对4地医院的门诊和住院收入变动建立因素指数体系并进行多因素分析法分析。4地医院业务收入均以住院收入为主,应加快推进基本药物制度,提高医保报销比例,推行临床路径,推进公立医院改革。     

国内银行保险合作路径探析

本文通过对我国金融环境的分析,提出了在混业经营趋势下,适合我国银保合作的路径。     

吉林省居民对人寿保险的需求调查及分析研究——基于“保险准客户回访”问卷的数据

通过对吉林省九个地级城市的保险公司准客户进行回访,收集到千余份调查问卷数据,通过对调查数据的分析,我们试图找到在新形势下吉林省居民对人寿保险的需求情况。利用分类取样方法,将项目分为理财需求、认知程度、购买偏好、购买需求、行业认知和因素分析六大项,最后得出吉林省居民对人寿保险的需求情况以及对保险行业的启示。     

关于对浙东南沿海地区企财险业务结构调整的思考

浙江东南沿海地区,特别是温台宁地区,几乎每年都要遭受台风、洪水灾害。经统计,一次台风、洪水灾害,全市财产保险公司(以下简称保险公司)都要赔付少则数千万元,多则几个亿。虽然近几年,浙东南沿海地区保险公司对企财险业务的风险性有了一定的认识,业务结构也逐步得到了一些调整,但仍然存在结构调整速度不快,比例下降缓慢的问题。     

EQUAL TREATMENT DIRECTIVE MISUNDERSTANDS RISK AND THREATENS INSURANCE MARKETS

The Equal Treatment Directive, which will come into force on 21 December 2007, aims to outlaw'discrimination' between men and women in the calculation of insurance premiums, is founded upon a fallacious understanding of the nature of actuarial calculations and the morality of'discriminatory' calculations where state provision of insurance has traditionally been 'non-discriminatory'. The Equal Treatment Directive will have perverse consequences contrary to the aims of its creators - benefiting the better-off at the expense of the poor and, in some circumstances, men at the expense of women - and will also threaten the private provision of pensions and healthcare essential to solving the looming pensions and healthcare funding crisis among EU member states.