Whose Right to Jerusalem?

Jerusalem is a city mired in spatial conflict. Its contested spaces represent deep conflicts among groups that vary by national identity, religion, religiosity and gender. The omnipresent nature of these conflicts provides an opportunity to look at Henri Lefebvre's concept of the right to the city (RTC). The RTC has been adopted and celebrated as a political tool for positive change, enabling communities to take control of space. Based on extensive fieldwork and in‐depth interviews, this article explores the complexity of the RTC principles and examines three urban battlefields in Jerusalem — Bar‐Ilan Street, the Kotel and the Orient House. The RTC is a powerful idea, providing the opportunity to examine people's everyday activities within the context of how space can be used to support their lives. Yet Jerusalem's myriad divisions produce claims by different groups to different parts of the city. In Jerusalem, the RTC is not a clear vision but a kaleidoscope of rights that produces a fragmented landscape within a religious and ethno‐national context governed by the nation state — Israel. The growth of cultural and ethnic diversity in urban areas may limit the possibility for a unified RTC to emerge in an urban sea of demands framed by difference. Space‐based cultural conflict exemplifies urban divisions and exacerbates claims to ‘my Jerusalem’, not ‘our Jerusalem’. Identity‐based claims to the RTC appear to work against, not for, a universalistic RTC.     

Superior–subordinate communication during organizational change: under which conditions does high-quality communication become important?

Restructuring and organizational change have become ever-present across all industrial countries. Based on conservation of resources theory, this study explored a buffering effect of superior–subordinate communication (SSC) in the relationship between management support for the change and both job satisfaction and work-related irritation. It was also assumed that dispositional resistance to change (RTC) would further impact this buffering effect. We tested these assumptions in a sample of 119 employees from eight organizations in which change had occurred. A buffering effect of SSC was supported for job satisfaction but not for irritation. In case of irritation, an interaction effect of RTC, SSC and management support was found. For irritation, the quality of SSC and the degree of management support are relevant only under the condition of high RTC. In our study, RTC was found offer a valuable approach for a successful implementation of organizational change. Practical approaches should refer to communication processes between superior and subordinates, especially when employees are high in RTC.     

The nature and antecedents of middle manager resistance to change: evidence from an Italian context

Although widely regarded as central to the successful implementation of change in organisations, middle managers have been relatively neglected in the literature on resistance to change (RTC). Focusing on middle management, we investigated the relative impact on RTC of two key factors commonly identified in the literature as key potential antecedents of resistance, namely individuals' perceptions of the cost/benefits of change and their extent of participation in the change process, respectively. To this end, we first identified a number of alternative hypotheses about the impact of the two antecedents of interest on RTC. We then tested these hypotheses using structured survey data from a sample of over 300 middle managers in the Italian national electricity company (ENEL) which, in the second half of the 1990s, underwent a major programme of change in preparation for its eventual privatization. In line with dominant arguments in the literature, the results of the analysis provided clear support to the idea that both antecedents of interest have a significant impact on middle managers' propensity to engage in various forms of RTC. For the most part, though, resistance amongst middle managers was found to take the form of a failure to engage in various types of pro-change behaviour, rather than of a propensity to engage in more open and active forms of dissent.     

Multivariate subset autoregressive modelling with zero constraints for detecting ‘overall causality’

The necessary and sufficient condition to test for ‘overall causality’, i.e., the presence of Granger- causality and instantaneous causal relations, in a bivariate and trivariate autoregressive model with recursive form is discussed. It is argued that the conventional AR model (the reduced form AR) is a more straightforward and effective means of testing for ‘overall causality’. To detect instanta- neous causality it is proposed to select the best subset system in a residual regression system in conjunction with model selection criteria. The Canadian money-income-bank rate system is re-examined in this way and by using a previously proposed algorithm we identify the optimum multivariate subset AR with constraints to detect whether there is ‘overall causality’ in that system.     

Short and long run causality measures: Theory and inference

The concept of causality introduced by Wiener [Wiener, N., 1956. The theory of prediction, In: E.F. Beckenback, ed., The Theory of Prediction, McGraw-Hill, New York (Chapter 8)] and Granger [Granger, C. W.J., 1969. Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods, Econometrica 37, 424–459] is defined in terms of predictability one period ahead. This concept can be generalized by considering causality at any given horizon h$h$ as well as tests for the corresponding non-causality [Dufour, J.-M., Renault, E., 1998. Short-run and long-run causality in time series: Theory. Econometrica 66, 1099–1125; Dufour, J.-M., Pelletier, D., Renault, É., 2006. Short run and long run causality in time series: Inference, Journal of Econometrics 132 (2), 337–362]. Instead of tests for non-causality at a given horizon, we study the problem of measuring causality between two vector processes. Existing causality measures have been defined only for the horizon 1, and they fail to capture indirect causality. We propose generalizations to any horizon h$h$ of the measures introduced by Geweke [Geweke, J., 1982. Measurement of linear dependence and feedback between multiple time series. Journal of the American Statistical Association 77, 304–313]. Nonparametric and parametric measures of unidirectional causality and instantaneous effects are considered. On noting that the causality measures typically involve complex functions of model parameters in VAR and VARMA models, we propose a simple simulation-based method to evaluate these measures for any VARMA model. We also describe asymptotically valid nonparametric confidence intervals, based on a bootstrap technique. Finally, the proposed measures are applied to study causality relations at different horizons between macroeconomic, monetary and financial variables in the US.     

Relocation of second degree: Moving towards a new place or returning home?

We study the “Relocations of Second Degree” (RSDs), i.e., the location decisions that modify the country of destination of a previous offshoring investment. Specifically, we distinguish between two types of RSDs, i.e., “Relocation to the Home Country (RHC)”, also known as back-reshoring, and “Relocation to a Third Country (RTC)”, i.e., the choice to move to a second host country.Specifically, we explore how the location advantages underlying the previous offshoring decision affect the probability to undertake an RHC, rather than an RTC. Location advantages reflect the favourable conditions that a foreign country offers with respect to the home one, in terms of market-seeking, asset-seeking and efficiency-seeking (i.e., cost-saving and productivity-enhancing) opportunities. Using data from the European Restructuring Monitor, we focus on the RSDs regarding manufacturing activities, implemented across European countries between 2002 and 2015. We find that, on the one hand, when a previous offshoring investment is driven by market-seeking location advantage, firms undertaking the RSD are more likely to opt for an RHC, except during the economic crisis where market-seeking European firms seem to prefer RTCs. On the other hand, RTC is a preferred choice when the location advantage is of efficiency-seeking type. In addition to offering a broader characterization of RSDs, our study provides empirical evidence of the relationship between the offshoring and relocation decisions. Managers should be aware of this connection when designing their manufacturing internationalization strategies.     

Causality between taxes and expenditures: Evidence from Latin American countries

The paper applies the techniques of cointegration and Hsiao’s version of the Granger causality method to examine the causality between taxes and expenditures for eight Latin American countries. The findings of bidirectional causality between taxes and expenditures in Chile, Panama, Brazil, and Peru indicate that taxes and expenditures are jointly determined. This study, however, detects causality running one way from taxes to expenditures in Columbia, the Dominican Republic, Honduras, and Paraguay. Taken together, this study strongly rejects the spend-and-tax hypothesis. (JEL C320, E620)     

Granger-causality in multiple time series

The concept of Granger-causality is formulated for a finite-dimensional multiple time series. Special attention is given to causality patterns in autoregressive series, and it is shown how these patterns can be tested under quite general assumptions using a χ² statistic. The power of the test is discussed, and it is shown that the χ² statistic results from a Lagrange multiplier test in the Gaussian case. The causality test is tried both on artificial data and some economic time series. Finally we consider the problem of constrained estimation in models with a known causality structure.     

Causality as validity: some implications for the social sciences

We analyse the concept of causality in the social sciences, whose development is insufficient and lesser than the methodology developed for its study. The nature of the causal process as the production of effects remains unclear and the relationships considered to be manifestations of that process cannot be taken for proof of its existence. Given these difficulties, we suggest that, aside from the inherited interpretations, the practice of the concept of causality makes reference to correctly specified relationships not confounded by others; characteristics identical to those which define validity. In that way, causality is equivalent to the validity of a relationship. Beyond merely re-understanding causality, this proposal permits the deduction that the temporal precedence of the cause is a necessary condition only for one type of causality, making it possible to consider other types, not admitted by the traditional notion, in which the cause is consequent or simultaneous to the variable to be explained. Examples and characteristics of these types of causality are presented and considered to be useful for the social sciences.     

Markov switching causality and the money–output relationship

The causal link between monetary variables and output is one of the most studied issues in macroeconomics. One puzzle from this literature is that the results of causality tests appear to be sensitive with respect to the sample period that one considers. As a way of overcoming this difficulty, we propose a method for analysing Granger causality which is based on a vector autoregressive model with time‐varying parameters. We model parameter time‐variation so as to reflect changes in Granger causality, and assume that these changes are stochastic and governed by an unobservable Markov chain. When applied to US data, our methodology allows us to reconcile previous puzzling differences in the outcome of conventional tests for money–output causality. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

When less conditioning provides better estimates: overcontrol and endogenous selection biases in research on intergenerational mobility

Quality & Quantity - The counterfactual approach to causality has become the dominant approach to understand causality in contemporary social science research. Whilst most sociologists are...     

Foreign direct investment and its determinants: A regional panel causality analysis

Moving beyond traditional one- or possibly two-way causality involving foreign direct investment (FDI), a systematic approach is implemented for delineating both short- and long-run flows of causality involving FDI and a comprehensive set of FDI's possible determinants. Granger causality procedures incorporating error correction terms are implemented, using provincial panel data from China. In both the short and long run, growth in GDP directly influences FDI, while growth in local infrastructure and local investment provide indirect but not direct influence.     

The causality between dollar and pound: An application of cointegration and error-correction modeling

Applying Hsiao's version of the Granger causality method with the aid of cointegration and error-correcting modeling, this paper reexamines the causality between dollar and pound for the period 1951–94. The Phillips-Perron tests for unit roots and Johansen tests of cointegration are performed. The study finds a bidirectional causality between the U.S.-U.K. relative prices and exchange rates in the long run. This study therefore supports the PPP theory that exchange rates between dollar and pound adjust to reflect changes in the price levels of the two countries.     

Measuring and testing Granger causality over the spectrum: An application to European production expectation surveys

Decomposing Granger causality over the spectrum allows us to disentangle potentially different Granger causality relationships over different frequencies. This may yield new and complementary insights compared to traditional versions of Granger causality. In this paper, we compare two existing approaches in the frequency domain, proposed originally by Pierce [Pierce, D. A. (1979). R-squared measures for time series. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, 901–910] and Geweke [Geweke, J. (1982). Measurement of linear dependence and feedback between multiple time series. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 77, 304–324], and introduce a new testing procedure for the Pierce spectral Granger causality measure. To provide insights into the relative performance of this test, we study its power properties by means of Monte Carlo simulations. In addition, we apply the methodology in the context of the predictive value of the European production expectation surveys. This predictive content is found to vary widely with the frequency considered, illustrating the usefulness of not restricting oneself to a single overall test statistic.     

Causality in social theory via linguistic fuzzy logic

I present a new approach to the study of causality in social theory using linguistic fuzzy logic as a framework. This approach differs from conventional analysis of causality on two fronts. First, all variables are considered to possess two degrees of freedom (or variation): a linguistic nuance value, which corresponds to what we conventionally refer to as interval or categorical value, and a linguistic truth value, which measures our confidence level in this nuance value. Second, combining this double fuzzification of variables with linguistic fuzzy logic I propose new tools for studying fuzzy causality. The linguistic fuzzy logic approach is illustrated through a re-examination of Skocpol’s (1979, States and social revolutions: a comparative analysis of France, Russia, and China. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge) theory of social revolution.     

基于非线性Granger因果检验的股市间联动关系研究

本文在Himestra和Jones(1994)提出的非线性因果关系检验方法的基础上,通过Monte-Carlo模拟采用一种全新的方法确定判定因果关系是否成立的关键因素——置信水平σ,并以此对不同阶段A股和H股间的联动关系进行非线性因果关系检验。实证结果显示,与现有线性关系检验得出的A股和H股两个市场之间只有在股权分置改革后才存在因果关系的结论不同,基于非线性Granger因果检验揭示出两个市场之间一直存在着复杂的因果关系:A股和H股两个市场之间仅存在单向的非线性因果关系,而且这种非线性因果关系在不同阶段呈现出不同的特征。     

Is corruption bad for economic growth? Evidence from Asia-Pacific countries

This study utilizes the bootstrap panel Granger causality approach, which incorporates both cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneity across countries, to investigate whether corruption negatively impacts economic growth in thirteen Asia-Pacific countries over the 1997–2013 period. The empirical results show that there is a significantly positive causality running from corruption to economic growth in South Korea, a significantly positive causality running from economic growth to corruption in China and no significant causality between corruption and economic growth for the remaining countries. According to the empirical results, we do not support the common perception that corruption is bad for economic growth for all thirteen Asia-Pacific. On the contrary, results of this study suggest that the “grease the wheels” hypothesis is supported for South Korea. Additionally, results of this study indicate that for most Asia-Pacific countries, policy makers’ use of anti-corruption policies to promote a country's economic development may not be effective. Finally, results of this study also suggest that for China, increase in economic growth leads to an increase in corruption.     

A consistent nonparametric test for nonlinear causality—Specification in time series regression

Since the pioneering work by Granger (1969), many authors have proposed tests of causality between economic time series. Most of them are concerned only with “linear causality in mean”, or if a series linearly affects the (conditional) mean of the other series. It is no doubt of primary interest, but dependence between series may be nonlinear, and/or not only through the conditional mean. Indeed conditional heteroskedastic models are widely studied recently. The purpose of this paper is to propose a nonparametric test for possibly nonlinear causality. Taking into account that dependence in higher order moments are becoming an important issue especially in financial time series, we also consider a test for causality up to the Kth conditional moment. Statistically, we can also view this test as a nonparametric omitted variable test in time series regression. A desirable property of the test is that it has nontrivial power against T^1/2-local alternatives, where T is the sample size. Also, we can form a test statistic accordingly if we have some knowledge on the alternative hypothesis. Furthermore, we show that the test statistic includes most of the omitted variable test statistics as special cases asymptotically. The null asymptotic distribution is not normal, but we can easily calculate the critical regions by simulation. Monte Carlo experiments show that the proposed test has good size and power properties.     

Causality in temporal systems: Characterization and a survey

A time series {Y_t} ‘causes’ another time series {Y_t}, in the sense defined by C.W.J. Granger, if present Y can be predicted better by using past values of X than by not doing so, other relevant information (including the past of Y) being used in either case. In this paper we (1) classify the possible causality relationships between two series X and Y, using an analogy to events in a sample space; (2) review existing work and present some new results on alternative characterizations of the more important causality events; and (3) compare several recent procedures for the empirical detection of causality.     

Causality in qualitative and quantitative research

We are flooded with a wave of writings on causality in the social sciences during the last decades. The same holds for the relationship between quantitative and qualitative research in the social sciences. An enormous amount of texts appears on (causality in) qualitative research, mostly in a controversy with quantitative research. These writings induced us to develop the thesis of “unity in diversity”, i.e., that there is no difference “in principle” between causality in qualitative and quantitative research, because both are supported by what I will call an “experimental logic”. In developing this thesis a plea is being made for going back to the sources. A historical overview of theories of causality is presented, which develops into two prominent views: INUS-causation and causal realism. A historical framework is also outlined for the opposition between quantitative and qualitative research, in which French positivism and British empiricism are opposed to German neo-kantianism and neo-hegelianism. After having developed the thesis of “unity in diversity” for this historical framework, the same is being done for the recent literature: “mixed methods research”, the book DSI of KKV, the reactions of David Collier and “QCA” of Charles Ragin. At the end the question of small-n research and the case n = 1 is examined.