中国R&D投入对生产率增长的技术溢出效应——基于工业行业(1993～2006年)的实证研究

本文在内生经济增长理论的框架下,以中国工业行业(1993～2006年)为研究对象,在将R&D资本存量分为本国本行业R&D、本国其他行业R&D、外国本行业R&D、外国其他行业R&D资本存量的基础上,对它们对生产率的技术溢出效应进行了实证研究。结果表明,在总体行业样本下除了外国其他行业R&D资本对生产率影响不确定外,本国本行业R&D、本国其他行业R&D、外国本行业R&D资本对生产率均有显著的正的影响;在不同时段、不同技术水平、不同产权结构等约束条件下,虽然一些R&D投入对生产率增长的促进作用得到了抑制,但大多数R&D投入仍有显著的正的影响。     

安徽省R&D投入对经济增长的影响研究

研发投入对经济增长的重要性日益凸显,本文利用安徽省2000-2012年的数据,并结合ADF单位根检验和协整理论对R&D投入与经济增长之间的关系进行了实证分析。结果表明,R&D经费投入对经济增长有显著的促进作用,最后,针对R&D投入存在的问题提出相应的优化建议。     

基于灰色关联分析的江苏省科技投入与经济增长实证研究

本文运用灰色关联分析方法,分析江苏省1999～2006年科技投入与经济增长的相关关系。结论表明:R&D经费支出和科技人员投入均与经济增长有正相关关系,科技人员投入对GDP有着更为显著的促进作用,而R&D经费支出对高新技术产业产值促进作用更显著,并根据此结论提出建议。     

老龄化背景下区域人力资本经济效应及滞后性研究

人口老龄化已经成为制约我国经济增长的重要因素。为考察老龄社会中人力资本的经济效应,首先构建包含老龄化因素的内生增长理论模型,考察人力资本最优投资规模;其次采用我国2010—2018年面板数据,使用GMM等估计方法进一步检验人力资本对经济增长的贡献。检验结果表明,受老龄化因素制约,我国人力资本经济产出弹性低于物质资本经济产出弹性,即人口老龄化对人力资本经济效应和投资收益期产生抑制作用。为发挥人力资本对经济增长的促进作用,在老龄化日益严重的背景下,各地政府应结合自身经济要素禀赋和发展基础调整两类资本投资结构,以减轻老龄化造成的经济冲击。     

我国人力资本存量、人力资本结构系数对经济增长的影响——基于分位数回归的实证研究

本文利用1998年至2008年中国30个省区的《统计年鉴》数据,选取相关指标,对人力资本和人力资本结构系数对我国经济增长的影响进行了考察。结果表明:人力资本在我国对经济增长具有显著的促进作用,人力资本结构系数对经济增长存在负面影响,物质资本对经济增长的影响程度呈现下降趋势。     

我国人力资本存量、人力资本结构系数对经济增长的影响——基于分位数回归的实证研究

本文利用1998年至2008年中国30个省区的《统计年鉴》数据,选取相关指标,对人力资本和人力资本结构系数对我国经济增长的影响进行了考察。结果表明:人力资本在我国对经济增长具有显著的促进作用,人力资本结构系数对经济增长存在负面影响,物质资本对经济增长的影响程度呈现下降趋势。     

交通设施投资与经济增长——基于VAR模型的实证研究

利用1991-2014年的资本投入与经济增长的年度数据构建VAR模型,对投入资本进行分解,综合考虑交通设施投资投入、其他基础设施资本投入以及非基础设施资本投入.研究结果表明交通基础设施的投资在短期内对经济的影响不大,但是长期看来,交通设施投入对经济增长的重要促进作用.     

技术创新在城市经济增长中的作用

通过选取2010年我国地级及以上城市为样本,采用空间计量模型考察了技术创新对城市经济增长的作用。研究结果表明,在控制了其他经济增长因素后,反映技术创新的专利授权水平对城市经济增长具有显著的促进作用。不过,技术创新的作用还不及物质资本及其它经济增长因素的作用,这说明当前我国仍处于主要依靠物质资本促进经济增长的发展阶段。制度是影响经济增长的重要因素,过度的政府干预会阻碍城市经济增长。基础设施对城市经济增长具有促进作用,但对经济增长的贡献远不及基础设施的直接投资效应。大多数城市的规模可能尚未达到规模集聚经济的门槛,因而表现为规模不经济。城市经济增长还存在明显的空间依赖性,表现出较强的空间临近溢出效应。     

浙江R&D投入对经济增长贡献的实证研究

本文采用CD生产函数模型,对1990-2006年间浙江投入对经济增长的贡献进行了计量分析,并对资本、劳动和R&D投入对经济增长的贡献率进行了测算。结果发现,浙江经济增长属于外延式增长,资本投入对经济增长的贡献度超过50%,是浙江经济增长的主要驱动力。1990-2006年整个期间R&D存量对浙江GDP增长的贡献率为21.88%,浙江R&D对GDP增长的贡献率呈不断上升之势。     

我国产业集中与技术创新的实证分析

增长理论越来越强调创新对经济增长的作用,创新从技术到制度两方面提高生产率.产业组织理论则关注产业集中度与技术创新的相关性,如果产业集中度与技术创新有正相关关系,则可以采取政策促进产业集中度的上升,从而提高技术创新能力,进一步促进经济增长.在我国的转型经济中,我国的企业规模和R&D投入(R&D集中度)、R&D产出(专利、技术改进和创新)的关系,我国的产业集中度(市场结构)和R&D投入(R&D集中度)、R&D产出(专利、技术改进和创新)的关系,本文将进行实证分析并提出相应的解释.     

Commodity Price Volatility and the Sources of Growth

This paper studies the impact of the growth and volatility of commodity terms of trade (CToT) on economic growth, total factor productivity, physical capital accumulation and human capital acquisition. We use the standard system generalized methods of moments (GMM) approach as well as the dynamic common correlated effects pooled mean group (CCEPMG) methodology for estimation to account for cross‐country heterogeneity, cross‐sectional dependence and feedback effects. Using both annual data for 1970–2007 and 5‐year non‐overlapping observations, we find that while CToT growth enhances real output per capita, CToT volatility exerts a negative impact on economic growth operating mainly through lower accumulation of physical and human capital. Productivity, however, is not affected by either the growth or the volatility of CToT. Our results also indicate that the negative growth effects of CToT volatility offset the positive impact of commodity booms. Therefore, we argue that volatility, rather than abundance per se, drives the ‘resource curse’ paradox. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Health human capital and economic growth in Sub-Saharan African and OECD countries

This paper investigates the effects of health human capital on the growth rate of per capita income in Sub-Saharan African and OECD countries. Using an expanded Solow growth model, panel data, and a dynamic panel estimator, we find that the growth rate of per capita income is strongly and positively influenced by the stock of, and investment in, health human capital after controlling for other variables. The stock of health human capital affects the growth rate of per capita income in a quadratic way: the growth impact of health human capital decreases at relatively large endowments of health stock. Our estimates suggest that 22% and 30% of the transition growth rate of per capita income in Sub-Saharan African and OECD countries respectively, can be attributed to health. The structure of the relationship between health human capital and the growth rate of income in Sub-Saharan African countries is similar to the structure of the relationship in OECD countries. This implies that increased stocks of health human capital leads to higher steady state income. Our results have interesting policy implications.     

增补预防性储蓄的托宾-索洛模型

非预期的预防性储蓄通过资产替代产生稳态名义货币增长率(或稳态通货膨胀率)对稳态人均资本(或稳态人均产出)的非线性门槛效应。门槛的临界值是非预期预防性储蓄与实际货币增加量比率的递减函数。非线性机制取决于非预期预防性储蓄与实际货币增加量比率和人均实际货币余额-人均资本比率与通货膨胀率、人均资本边际产出的相关性。     

Growth vs. level effect of population change on economic development: An inspection into human-capital-related mechanisms

This paper studies the different mechanisms and the dynamics through which demography is channeled to the economy. We analyze the role of demographic changes in the economic development process by studying the transitional and the long-run impact of both the rate of population growth and the initial population size on the levels of per capita human capital and income. We do that in an enlarged Lucas–Uzawa model with intergenerational altruism. In contrast to the existing theoretical literature, the long-run level effects of demographic changes, i.e. their impact on the levels of the variables along the balanced growth path, are deeply characterized in addition to the more standard long-run growth effects. We prove that the level effect of the population rate of growth is non-negative (positive in the empirically most relevant case) for the average level of human capital, but a priori ambiguous for the level of per capita income due to the interaction of three transmission mechanisms of demographic shocks, a standard one (dilution) and two non-standard (altruism and human capital accumulation). Overall, the sign of the level effects of population growth depends on preference and technology parameters, but numerically we show that the joint negative effect of dilution and altruism is always stronger than the induced positive human capital effect. The growth effect of population growth depends basically on the attitude to intergenerational altruism and intertemporal substitution. Moreover, we also prove that the long-run level effects of population size on per capita human capital and income may be negative, nil, or positive, depending on the relationship between preferences and technology, while its growth effect is zero. Finally, we show that the model is able to replicate complicated time relationships between economic and demographic changes. In particular, it entails a negative effect of population growth on per capita income, which dominates in the initial periods, and a positive effect which restores a positive correlation between population growth and economic performance in the long term.     

A cointegration approach to modeling human capital formation,self-employment,and economic growth: evidence from Pakistan

This study aims to empirically investigate the dynamics of relationship among human capital formation, self-employment (SE), and economic growth in Pakistan. Using quarterly data of primary school enrollment, SE, and GDP per capita, we employed ARDL bound testing approach to cointegration covering the time span of 1995–2010. We found that in the long run, primary school enrollment, high school enrollment and SE have significant impact on economic growth. Enrollment in primary schools (EP) has a strong positive and significant impact on economic growth, whereas enrollment in high school has a relatively small positive and significant impact on economic growth in the long run in Pakistan. Further, SE has a small, positive and significant impact on economic growth in the long run. In short run, enrollments in high schools and SE have weak positive impact on economic growth whereas, EP has a strong positive and significant impact on economic growth in Pakistan. Further it is found that that there is unidirectional long run causality from self employment to economic growth followed by the bidirectional short run causality between economic growth and high school enrollment, GDP per capita and primary school enrollment, high school enrollment and primary school enrollment.     

Social Capital,Investment and Economic Growth: Some Evidence for Spanish Provinces

Abstract

This article analyses the impact of social capital on regional economic growth in Spain during the 1985–2005 period. The literature in this context is virtually nonexistent and, in addition, whereas most studies, regardless of their context, have used survey data in order to measure social capital, we use a measure whose construction is based on similar criteria to other measures of capital stock. Compared with more standard measures of social capital and trust, our measure is available with a high level of disaggregation, and with annual frequency for a long time period. Following a panel data approach, our findings indicate that social capital has a positive impact on GDP per capita growth in the context of Spanish provinces, implying that ‘social features’ are important for explaining the differences in wealth that one might find across Spanish provinces. We also explore the transmission mechanisms from social capital to growth, finding a highly positive relation between social capital and private physical investment.     

Contribution of female human capital in economic growth: an empirical analysis of Pakistan (1972–2012)

This study is to find out an impact of female human capital on economic growth of Pakistan. The study has therefore, used gender separate human capital as an explanatory variable along with other factors, labor force and physical capital. In this regard a composite human capital has been constructed by taking education and health as a proxy for human capital. The long run and short run dynamics among female human capital and economic growth are empirically tested on time series data spread from 1972–2012. Johanson’s co-integration approach has been applied for the long run and Vector Error Correction Model used for the short run relationship. The results show that the long run relationship between female human capital and economic growth is positive and significant. While the short run impact of female human capital on economic growth is positive but statistically insignificant.     

Development threshold,capital flows,and financial turbulence

We study capital flows in a panel of 130 countries, and derive the implications for the observed patterns of capital flows and capital controls before and into the crisis of 2008–11. We find that the size of capital flows is positively correlated with country's income level. In addition, capital flight has a non-linear relationship with the income level. Using the Hansen threshold estimation, we identify a three-stage threshold effect: for low-income countries (GDP per capita below US$ 3,000), capital flight increases as the income level rises; and only after the economy passes a threshold level (GDP per capita above US$ 5,000), capital flight declines with income. We conclude with a case study of Brazil and Korea, observing that the decisions to implement capital control measures tend to be pushed around by the feedbacks among economic growth, currency appreciation, and the global financial conditions.     

Economies in Transition: How Important Is Trade Openness for Growth?*

We investigate the effect of trade openness on economic growth in transition countries using a transparent statistical methodology that leads to data‐driven case studies. In particular, we employ synthetic control methods in a panel of transition economies and compare GDP growth in treated (that is, open) countries with growth in a convex combination of similar but untreated (that is, closed) countries. We find that trade liberalization tends to have a positive effect on the pattern of real GDP per capita. One of our most robust results shows that making the transition without opening up to trade considerably hampers growth.     

Is the causal nexus of energy utilization and economic growth asymmetric in the US?

This paper re-examines the causal nexus of energy utilization and GDP per capita in the US. The novelty of the paper is to allow for asymmetry in causality by using a new test introduced by Hatemi-J (forthcoming). A bootstrap procedure is used with leveraged corrections that perform more accurately when the statistical assumptions for validity of asymptotic distributions are not fulfilled. This is especially the case for sample sizes as in the current paper. The estimation results reveal strongly that a negative energy consumption shock will cause a negative shock in the output per capita. That is, if the energy utilization per capita decreases then the output per capita will also decrease. Surprisingly, such a causal impact for positive shocks is not found. These empirical results might indicate that there is an optimal quantity of energy in the US that needs to be consumed as otherwise the economic growth will suffer. However, the consumption of energy beyond that optimal quantity will not necessarily result in an enhanced rate of economic growth.