“店选网购”的竞争效应及其反垄断政策涵义

随着互联网和电子商务的发展，消费者在店商试选后以较低价格从网商购买商品的“店选网购”现象非常普遍，厂商或店商经常以其存在搭便车问题为由采取维持转售价格予以限制。本文通过构建具有横向差异化的霍特林模型，考察“店选网购”的竞争效应。研究表明，尽管“店选网购”存在搭便车问题，却能促进店商与网商间的竞争，降低店商和网商的价格和利润，使消费者从中获益，但对社会福利的影响结果是不明确的；其反垄断政策涵义是，“店选网购”具有促进竞争和存在搭便车问题的双重特性，不能简单地作为豁免维持转售价格的正当理由，而应根据实际情况具体分析。     

International spillovers of (un)conventional monetary policy: The effect of the ECB and the US Fed on non-euro EU countries

We estimate a global vector autoregression model to examine the effects of euro area and US monetary policy stances, together with the effect of euro area consumer prices, on economic activity and prices in non-euro EU countries using monthly data from 2001-2016. Along with some standard macroeconomic variables, our model contains measures of the shadow monetary policy rate to address the zero lower bound and the implementation of unconventional monetary policy by the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve. We find that these monetary shocks have the expected qualitative effects but their magnitude differs across countries, with southeastern EU economies being less affected than their peers in Central Europe. Euro area monetary shocks have a greater effect than those that emanate from the US. We also find certain evidence that the effects of unconventional monetary policy measures are weaker than those of conventional measures. The spillovers of euro area price shocks to non-euro EU countries are limited, suggesting that the law of one price materializes slowly.     

The Evolving Food Chain: Competitive Effects of Wal-Mart's Entry into the Supermarket Industry

We analyze the effect of Wal-Mart's entry into the grocery market using a unique store-level price panel data set. We use ordinary least squares and two instrumental-variables specifications to estimate the effect of Wal-Mart's entry on competitors' prices of 24 grocery items across several categories. Wal-Mart's price advantage over competitors for these products averages approximately 10%. On average, competitors' response to entry by a Wal-Mart Supercenter is a price reduction of 1–1.2%, mostly due to smaller-scale competitors; the response of the "Big Three" supermarket chains (Albertson's, Safeway, and Kroger) is less than half that size. Low-end grocery stores, which compete more directly with Wal-Mart, cut their prices more than twice as much as higher-end stores. We confirm our results using a falsification exercise, in which we test for Wal-Mart's effect on prices of services that it does not provide, such as movie tickets and dry-cleaning services.     

Savings that hurt: Production rationalization and its effect on prices

Postmerger scenarios often lead to a reallocation of resources and production across the merged entity. Production rationalization, the process of reallocating production across facilities so as to reduce total costs, results in firms equating marginal costs across markets. This results in marginal costs, and hence prices, being higher in some markets and lower in others than otherwise would be without production rationalization. This paper proposes a model of competition that elicits these effects and the resulting consequences on consumer and producer surplus. The paper also presents empirical evidence to show that production rationalization, in the form of fleet reoptimization, affected prices following the US Airways/American Airlines merger. Prices of the merged firm increased 10% on routes typically served by US Airways relative to routes typically served by American Airlines, and by 12% relative to US Airways’ rivals’ prices. Price‐cost regressions confirm such price hikes were likely due to fleet reoptimization.     

Consumer Search Ability,Price Dispersion and the Digital Divide

The ‘digital divide’ in online activities is believed to arise from differences in Internet access, but this paper advances an alternative explanation that is related to consumer search ability. It argues that this leads to greater price dispersion, causing some consumers to be discriminated against. It analyses price data for the UK Internet motor insurance market, collecting data on 32,255 prices for 110 sub‐markets, where differences in price dispersion across these by age, occupation and sex of the driver are argued to reflect differences in search ability. Allowing for price dispersion to also depend on the insurance risk, it finds greater price dispersion for consumers with weaker search abilities, i.e. older, unemployed, retired or female consumers. As this is not explained by alternative hypotheses, the paper concludes that improved Internet access alone will not close the ‘digital divide’. The implication is that policymakers should address the online search abilities of individuals as well as Internet access.     

The Determinants of Price Adjustments in Retail Supermarkets

This paper examines the determinants of price adjustment decisions by supermarkets to increase or decrease prices for 11 different food categories and evaluates the characteristics of these firms that influence these decisions. We use a unique dataset to analyze firm variables and industry variables and their impact on price adjustment in supermarket stores. The study contributes to the price adjustment literature by identifying determinants of price behavior by stores and product category. We find that the rationale for increasing prices differs from that for decreasing prices, retailers make different adjustment decisions based on product category, and market‐level controls have little impact. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

China and international market integration: Evidence from the law of one price in the Middle East and Africa

We model market integration in the Middle East and Africa by analyzing price dispersion and testing the law of one price (LOP) on highly-comparable actual local retail prices of 135 goods and services across 23 countries in the region over the period of 1990–2016. Second-generation panel estimators are applied to four price benchmarks: Regional average, South Africa, China, and US prices. Cross-regional price dispersion diminishes considerably over time up to 2008, particularly for non-tradeables around China price. The test of LOP indicates the percentage of convergent prices is highest in China price benchmark, followed by US, South Africa, and regional average benchmarks. Direct estimation of the convergence speed confirms this order. Overall, the results show evidence of increasing market integration in Middle East and Africa but it appears to be driven by global forces and, especially, the rise of China as a new economic power. The results show that some emerging market economies, such as China, can step up and promote integration while traditional economic powerhouses, such as the USA and UK, disengage from international economic relations.     

Comovements and asymmetric tail dependence in state housing prices in the USA: A nonparametric approach

We reexamine the methods used in estimating comovements among US regional home prices and find that there are insufficient moments to ensure a normal limit necessary for employing the quasi‐maximum likelihood estimator. Hence we propose applying the self‐weighted quasi‐maximum exponential likelihood estimator and a bootstrap method to test and account for the asymmetry of comovements as well as different magnitudes across state pairs. Our results reveal interstate asymmetric tail dependence based on observed house price indices rather than residuals from fitting autoregressive–generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (AR‐GARCH) models.     

Determinants of Relative Sectoral Prices: The Role of Demographic Change

Demographic change raises demand for non‐tradable old‐age related services relative to tradable commodities. This demand shift increases the relative price of non‐tradables and thereby causes real exchange rates to appreciate. We claim that the change in demand affects prices via imperfect intersectoral factor mobility. Using a sample of 15 OECD countries, we estimate a robust increase of relative prices. According to our main estimate, up to one fifth of the average increase in relative prices between 1970 and 2009 can be attributed to population ageing. Further findings confirm the relevance of imperfect factor mobility: Countries with more rigid labour markets experience stronger price effects.     

Long‐run relations in European electricity prices

This paper analyses the interdependencies existing in wholesale electricity prices in six major European countries. The results of a robust multivariate long‐run dynamic analysis reveal the presence of four highly integrated central European markets (France, Germany, the Netherlands and Austria). The trend shared by these four electricity markets appears to be common also to gas prices, but not to oil prices. The existence of a common long‐term dynamics among electricity prices and between electricity prices and gas prices can be explained by the similarity of the market design across Europe and by the same marginal generation technology. Since standard unit root and cointegration tests are not robust to the peculiar characteristics of electricity prices time series, we also develop a battery of robust inference procedures that should assure the reliability of our results. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Price-matching policies: An empirical case

Promises by retailers to match the prices of their competitors give an impression of fierce price competition. These policies, however, may deter rivals from cutting prices because the threat of price matching makes it more likely that market share will not be gained. This paper empirically tests these two conflicting theories using data collected from grocery stores in a market where several stores had announced that they would match the prices of the low-price supermarket. The evidence supports the theory that price-matching policies help supermarkets avoid price competition and therefore lead to generally higher prices.     

Daily House Price Indices: Construction,Modeling, and Longer‐run Predictions

We construct daily house price indices for 10 major US metropolitan areas. Our calculations are based on a comprehensive database of several million residential property transactions and a standard repeat‐sales method that closely mimics the methodology of the popular monthly Case–Shiller house price indices. Our new daily house price indices exhibit dynamic features similar to those of other daily asset prices, with mild autocorrelation and strong conditional heteroskedasticity of the corresponding daily returns. A relatively simple multivariate time series model for the daily house price index returns, explicitly allowing for commonalities across cities and GARCH effects, produces forecasts of longer‐run monthly house price changes that are superior to various alternative forecast procedures based on lower‐frequency data. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

What do Thirteen Million Price Records have to Say about Consumer Price Rigidity?*

Based on the analysis of 13 million price records underlying the computation of the French consumer price index, we provide a detailed assessment of consumer price rigidity. Our main results are as follows. The average duration of prices is around 8 months. Price durations and the patterns of price‐setting strongly differ across sectors. Price cuts are almost as frequent as increases, suggesting no specific downward nominal rigidity. Price changes typically have large absolute sizes. Time variation in the frequency of price changes and in their size both contribute to inflation fluctuations. Overall there is evidence of both time‐ and state‐dependent price‐setting.     

Competition in prescription drug markets: is parallel trade the answer?

This article uses a price determination model with dynamic panel data estimation to examine the extent to which pharmaceutical parallel trade promotes price competition and leads to downward price convergence. Little evidence of sustainable price competition is found. We find that prices are mainly affected by regulation and by competition in the wholesale distribution chain; that the pricing strategy of parallel distributors resembles that of originator drugs in importing countries; and that there may be upward rather than downward price convergence. Drawing on the European evidence, the findings also indicate that opening the US market to parallel imports will not necessarily lead to competition and enhance pharmaceutical cost containment. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The price responsiveness of housing supply in OECD countries

The responsiveness of housing supply to changes in prices bears important implications for the evolution of housing prices and the speed of adjustment of housing markets. Based on a stock-flow model of the housing market estimated within an error correction framework, this paper estimates the long-run price elasticity of new housing supply in 21 OECD countries. Estimates suggest that the responsiveness of housing supply to price changes varies substantially across countries. It is relatively more flexible in North America and some Nordic countries, while it is more rigid in continental European countries and in the United Kingdom. The responsiveness of housing supply depends not only on national geographical and urban characteristics but also on policies, such as land use and planning regulations.     

The dynamics and distribution of the area price in the Nord Pool

The Nord Pool is often cited as a standard and successful electric power exchange. It was first created in Norway and developed into the power change system covering the Nordic countries. The Nord Pool provides a physical market where electricity producers and consumers/distributors meet by submitting bids for sale and purchase for 24 h time segment. If there does not exist a restraint of transmission capacity across the member countries, a single price—system price—is calculated by the intersection of the demand and supply curves, whereas if there exists congestion of transmission lines, area price instead of system price emerges. We are interested in analyzing how often and how far the two prices diverge and the probability distribution of the price ratio between system and area price. We found that the price ratio does not follow the normal distribution but the distribution is fat-tailed.     

Housing, credit, and real activity cycles: Characteristics and comovement

This paper describes the characteristics and comovement of cycles in house prices, residential investment, credit, interest rates, and real activity in advanced economies during the past 25 years. Stylized facts and regularities are uncovered using a dynamic generalized factor model and spectral techniques. House price cycles are found to lead credit and real activity over the long term, while in the short to medium term the relationship varies across countries. Interest rates tend to lag other cycles at all time horizons. Although global factors are important, the US business cycle, housing cycle and interest rate cycle generally lead the respective cycles in other countries over all time horizons, while the US credit cycle leads mainly over the long term.     

Business,housing, and credit cycles

We use multivariate unobserved components models to estimate trend and cyclical components in gross domestic product (GDP), credit volumes, and house prices for the USA and the five largest European economies. With the exception of Germany, we find large and long cycles in credit and house prices, which are highly correlated with a medium‐term component in GDP cycles. Differences across countries in the length and size of cycles appear to be related to the properties of national housing markets. The precision of pseudo real‐time estimates of credit and house price cycles is roughly comparable to that of GDP cycles.     

Multiproduct price competition with heterogeneous consumers and nonconvex costs

This paper extends the oligopolistic model of price competition to environments with multiple goods, heterogeneous consumers, and arbitrary continuous cost functions. A Nash equilibrium in mixed strategies with an endogenous sharing rule is proven to exist. It is also shown that, in environments with fixed costs and constant marginal costs, all (symmetric and asymmetric) equilibria exhibit price dispersion across stores. Furthermore, the paper identifies scenarios in which prices will necessarily be random. In these markets, stores keep each other guessing because, given the fixed costs, they would incur a loss if their price strategies were anticipated and beaten by competitors. This is interpreted as an important economic feature that is possibly behind random price promotions such as weekly specials.     

Profit and productivity of US Class I railroads

This paper examines how productivity changes and price changes have contributed to short‐run profit change in the railroad industry. Using an unbalanced panel of US Class I railroads for the period 1996–2003, a short‐run profit change decomposition model is used to attribute intertemporal profit change to its causal factors. We find that productivity improvements and an increased scale of production contributed to increases in profit, and that variation in operating efficiency had a mixed impact on profit. We also find that relative changes in rail rates and variable input prices exerted downward pressure on profit. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.