REGIONAL CONVERGENCE AND THE ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE OF PERIPHERAL AREAS IN TURKEY

The objective of this paper is to examine regional convergence and core-periphery relations in Turkey. The main question explores the degree to which there has been a transformation of interregional disparities in terms of "convergence" and performance of peripheral regions in Turkey by considering GDP per capita over the 1980-97 period. As a result of σ and β convergence (absolute and conditional) analyses, following Barro and Sala-i-Martin (1995), there is no evidence for convergence across both provinces and the functional regions in Turkey from 1980 to 1997. Moreover, a high level of the spatial dependence was revealed. Therefore, the level of regional GDP per capita growth was highly related to the neighbors and disparities are still obvious between the east and west of Turkey. Most of the new dynamic areas are also located in the west. Notwithstanding policies for "Priority Provinces in Development" (PPD), the findings of the convergence analysis indicates that PPDs do not grow faster than core-developed provinces. Moreover, the majority of them remained as poor regions with their neighbors. While the PPDs share similar features compare to the developed provinces, they are differentiated in terms of their performance.     

An Application of an Integrated Transport Network– Multiregional CGE Model: a Framework for the Economic Analysis of Highway Projects

This paper develops a framework for the economic analysis of highway projects that is then used to estimate the dynamic economic effects of a highway project on the economic growth and the regional disparity in Korea. The framework is composed of a transport model and a multiregional Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. The transport model measures a change in interregional shortest distances and the accessibility due to the highway project. The CGE model estimates the spatial economic effects of the project on GDP, the price, exports, and the regional distribution of wages and population. The simulation allows policy makers to determine which highway development deserves the priority for investment, based on consideration of economic growth and regional economic equity in the long run. The simulation found that all the highway projects have positive effects on GDP and export growth as well as regional equity in terms of wage and population.     

Does Evidence on Regional Economic Convergence Depend on the Estimation Strategy? Outcomes from Analysis of a Set of NUTS2 EU Regions

Abstract

The regional economic convergence/divergence issue has been discussed extensively recently, but results obtained are not always interpretable unequivocally as a consequence of the different estimation strategies used. As it is widely recognized, the most common theoretical framework applied to measure the speed of economic convergence among countries or regions remains the β-convergence approach, linked to the neoclassical Solow model. There have been many attempts to consider variations of the basic cross-sectional specification ranging from panel data models to Bayesian spatial econometric techniques. The application of spatial econometric methodologies is an essential tool for proper statistical inference on regional data. In this context, the aim of this paper is to connect the different results obtained in the literature. More specifically, we address whether or not evidence on convergence depends upon the estimation strategy, by taking the same set of data and systematically comparing the results obtained from different estimation strategies. The results from a set of NUTS2 EU regions conclude that both the model implied by the cross-sectional analysis and the one referring to the space-time dynamics incorporated in the panel specification point to convergence. The concept of convergence implied is, however, quite different, as demonstrated throughout the paper.     

NIGHT LIGHTS IN ECONOMICS: SOURCES AND USES1

Night lights, as detected by satellites, are increasingly used by economists, typically as a proxy for economic activity. The growing popularity of these data reflects either the absence, or the presumed inaccuracy, of more conventional economic statistics, like national or regional GDP. Further growth in use of night lights is likely, as they have been included in the AidData geoquery tool for providing subnational data, and in geographic data that the Demographic and Health Survey links to anonymized survey enumeration areas. Yet, this ease of obtaining night lights data may lead to inappropriate use, if users fail to recognize that most of the satellites providing these data were not designed to assist economists, and have features that may threaten validity of analyses based on these data, especially for temporal comparisons, and for small and rural areas. In this paper, we review sources of satellite data on night lights, discuss issues with these data, and survey some of their uses in economics.     

Economic downturns and compositional effects in regional population structures by age: a multi-temporal analysis in Greek regions, 1981–2017

Population movements (international and internal migration) and changing fertility and mortality patterns have significantly affected demographic structures. Investigation of the relationship between (evolving) population structures and economic downturns is a key issue in economic demography. Analysis of compositional changes in regional population structures over a sufficiently long time interval may provide an informed knowledge to better understanding of this relationship and the underlying socioeconomic context in European countries. Based on these premises, Greece was considered a paradigmatic case of sequential economic expansions and recessions, impacting the structure of resident population in the last four decades. In this work, changes over time in population structures by age in Greek regions were explored (1981–2017) using a multi-temporal principal component analysis. A diachronic analysis of compositional effects of economic downturns on regional population structures indicates spatially-heterogeneous demographic processes in Greece. The subsequent recession has represented a turning point in Greek demography, consolidating changes in traditional family structures, while stimulating out-migration at younger ages to Northern and Western European regions and containing immigration from developing countries. Metropolitan areas and coastal districts had more rapid population dynamics, while peripheral rural regions experienced more rapid changes towards aging. Population aging had a short-term impact on regional population structures in Greece, with possibly negative consequences for the ability of the country’s economy to recover from crisis.

     

Higher education and economic growth: A longitudinal study of European regions 2000–2017

This paper investigates the impact of regional higher education systems (HESs) on economic growth, based upon 284 European regions (NUTS 2) over an 18-year period (from 2000 to 2017). The empirical framework specifically models the heterogeneity of the HESs by including indicators on university concentration, on the size of the HES and on HES performance and other important factors. The analysis is based on a novel and integrated dataset, created by collecting and combining indicators from different data sources (Eurostat, OECD, WHED and InCites). The results reveal that an increase in number of universities in a region is conducive to stronger economic growth within that region. The quality of research and a specialisation in STEM subjects are the primary drivers through which universities impact positively on the regions’ economic development.     

INVESTMENT PATTERNS AND THE COMPETITIVENESS OF GREEK REGIONS

This paper aims at mapping and analyzing the determinants of industrial activity in Greek regions in order to assess current investment patterns. For this purpose, we estimate a conditional logit model of 226 new established firms for 1996 and 1997. Results give interesting insights that are likely of particular importance to regional policy makers. Noteworthy is the spatial concentration of firms in different prefectures while the large metropolitan cities, Athens and Thessalonica, although with declining shares, prevail as the dominant hosts. European regional policy seems to enhance firms'entry via its effect on economic development variables, in contrast with the Greek Development Law, which turns out non-influential.     

COMMENTS ON THE DYNAMICS OF REGIONAL POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT GROWTH

There has been much discussion about whether population growth causes employment growth or vice versa. This study supplements the work of Mathur and Song by confirming that population growth causes employment growth in die Snowbelt and die reverse in die Sunbelt. Also, regional growth rates of population and employment alternated between convergence, divergence, and convergence during 1955-88.     

Disparities in Chinese economic development: approaches on different levels of aggregation

Based on a new and recent set of data on economic development in the Chinese prefectures, the paper investigates the impact of different levels of spatial aggregation on the assessment of regional disparities in China. We analyze the structure of inequalities in the light of a component analysis of the general measure of entropy, which is applied on inter-regional disparities with reference to different levels of aggregation as well as the rural/urban segmentation. We reach the conclusion that lower levels of data aggregation are to be recommended for policy purposes, that nationally homogenous discrimination still impacts favorably on urban areas, and that in many rural areas, there is a clear growth trend with diminishing regional disparities.     

Residential mobility and the local context: Comparing long-term and short-term spatial trends of population movements in Greece

Residential mobility is a key dimension of population dynamics shaping urban growth and rural development at different spatio-temporal scales. Assuming spatial mobility as increasingly dependent on the intrinsic characteristics of local contexts, the present study investigates long-term and short-term population movements in a European country (Greece), in light of regional urbanization processes and socioeconomic development. A multidimensional analysis of indicators of residential stability and background variables was carried out with the aim at evaluating the influence of local contexts on more general processes of population mobility. Different typologies of spatial mobility associated to factors (directly or indirectly) dependent on demographic dynamics, economic performances and urban cycles were identified. The empirical findings of this study evidence (more or less traditional) paths of internal migration and a latent process of population relocation across metropolitan regions, together with more recent international migrations at both working and retirement age. While short-range population movements were the ultimate result of late suburbanization in Greece, medium- and broad-range mobility consolidated the country's divide in urban and rural areas, evidencing the attractive role of Athens. Spatial direction and intensity of population movements reflect complex socioeconomic transformations, whose knowledge provides innovative visions for a better understanding of future demographic dynamics in Mediterranean Europe.     

STRUCTURAL CHANGES IN CHINA'S ECONOMIC GROWTH DURING THE REFORM PERIOD

We identify some empirical evidences for the structural changes in the determinants of regional growth, disparities and the convergence speed to the per capita GDP equilibrium during the reform period of 1978–1998 in China. We estimate a growth regression model by augmenting the Solow model with a provincial-level panel data set. The existence of conditional convergence is confirmed throughout the reform period, but the convergence speed is faster in the 1990s than the early reform period. Agro-industry-based rural development contributed to regional growth and eased interregional disparities in the early reform period. Foreign capital inflows took a significant leading role for regional growth during the 1990s, but aggravated interregional disparities. Education and non-state enterprises were among the other keys for regional growth throughout the reform period. These results implies that for achieving sustainable and balanced growth in future, it is essential to extend foreign capital investment to the interior regions, in association with further development of human capital resource and non-state local enterprises.     

RAPID GROWTH IN CHINA AND THE ASIAN ECONOMIES: SOME STYLISED FREE‐MARKET POLICY INFERENCES

The focus of this article is on the rapid growth of the Chinese economy and its ongoing interaction with the rest of Asia. It concludes that rapid growth in both Asia and China has resulted from free‐market‐oriented neoclassical economic policies and principles. Owing to its economy's size, its openness and the briskness of its GDP growth, China has influenced economies across the globe as well as the more proximate regional economy.     

Economic cohesion and development of the European Union's regions and member states - A methodological proposal to measure and identify the degree of regional economic cohesion

The EU cohesion policy seeks to mitigate imbalances between countries and regions and enhance greater economic development of the whole Union. However, notwithstanding its efforts and certain progress on this issue, territorial disparities still represent an open challenge for the European Union, which requires improving the cohesion policy, particularly regarding its measurement, in order to allocate resources more efficiently.This article aims to propose an innovative methodology to measure and identify the degree of cohesion of both EU NUTS-2 regions and member states in economic terms. To this end we first selected the main indicators which would better explain GDP per capita growth by applying factor analysis; and second, we measure the degree of cohesion as the relationship between economic development and its potential attributable to the inequalities detected in the selected set of indicators. To ensure the robustness of this research, we compared the results obtained by applying the Gini, Atkinson, and Theil indexes. Finally, the Economic Cohesion Index (ECI) has been elaborated in order to identify regions that, regardless of their economic development, still present a very low level of cohesion within the group in which it is compared.The main findings indicate that the 27 EU countries are quite cohesive. On the contrary, from the regional perspective, the study shows important imbalances between economic development and its potential that mainly affect the regions of Greece, Spain, and Italy, where Greece is the leading country among less developed regions and Spain and Italy among more developed.     

Inter-metropolitan regional migration galvanized by high-speed rail: A simulation analysis of the Linear Chuo Shinkansen line in Japan

The development of transportation infrastructure impacts migration, production, and other economic activities along with it. In this study, we conducted a multiregional computable general equilibrium simulation analysis to assess the effects that the proposed 2027 high-speed railway, the Linear Chuo Shinkansen in Japan, will have on population migration. The 47 prefectures ordained by the Japanese administrative unit were considered, and the simulation potential workforce population was taken as 110 million. The population is concentrated in the Tokyo metropolitan area. As per our simulation, once the proposed high-speed railway opens, “travel costs” (comprising time and the monetary costs of traveling) will decrease. This situation will stimulate economic activities and lead people to migrate to the prefectures where the economic environment improves. The results show that this development will ease extreme population concentration while simultaneously increasing employment and production values. However, additional analysis indicates that further development of the Linear Shinkansen to strengthen the current high-speed rail on the route to Tokaido will increase population concentration.     

Regional Growth and National Development: Transition in Central and Eastern Europe and the Regional Kuznets Curve in the East and the West

Abstract

Regional disparities in Central and Eastern Europe rose substantially since 1990. Still, prima facie evidence of beta-convergence is often found in the CEE data. To reconcile this seeming paradox, we sketch out and test empirically a hybrid model of regional growth that draws on the regional Kuznets curve and incorporates aspects of cumulative causation and neoclassical convergence. In both CEE and the ‘old’ EU15, regional convergence is strongly linked to the level of national development, non-linearly. But while in the EU15 convergence speeds-up at intermediate/high levels of development, in CEE we find divergence at intermediate levels of national development and no significant return to convergence thereafter. Although this may show that overall development levels are not sufficient yet to mobilise regional convergence, it is also possible that non-convergence is attributable to centripetal forces instigated by the process of transition.     

区域人力资本与经济增长实证研究——以江西省人力资源战略调整为例

人力资本作为生产要素,在地区经济发展过程中发挥着决定性影响。本文利用最小二乘法对江西省人力资本与经济增长之间的关系进行研究,结果发现江西省人力资本的弹性系数为0.3800,说明江西省的区域人力资本每增长1%,江西省GDP就将增长0.3800%,且人力资本的投入与经济增长之间互为Grange原因。     

淮海经济圈区域物流需求预测

区域经济与区域物流是相互依存,相互促进的统一体,现代物流对经济增长的基础和促进作用可以通过物流发展带来物流体系的改善,从而对经济增长产生作用。本文以淮海经济圈为例,探讨了区域物流需求与GDP、区域货运量的关联度。     

区域智力资本与区域经济发展

本文通过评价2006年我国31个省(直辖市、自治区)的区域智力资本水平来探索其对区域经济发展的作用.研究发现,区域智力资本与区域经济发展具有较强的正相关性,并且区域智力资本每提高1%GDP则提高0.815%,区域智力资本的构成要素,即区域人力资本、区域关系资本、区域结构资本和区域创新资本也都与区域经济发展有着显著的正相关关系,但它们在对经济发展的贡献度上存在一定的差异性.     

International output convergence: evidence from an autocorrelation function approach

This paper uses an autocorrelation function (ACF) approach to develop a new testing procedure for international output convergence. We define convergence in terms of sample ACFs of detrended output per capita, and construct an inference set‐up based on resampling and subsampling techniques for dependent data. Using per capita GDP for 15 OECD countries observed over a century, we find that the hypothesis of conditional convergence is unsupported; that, the USA apart, the linearized neoclassical growth model fails to replicate the transitional dynamics of OECD economies; and that these economies do not behave like a club. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Demographic transition and economic growth in China,India and Pakistan

The authors of this paper adopt a Solow–Swan model extended to include demographic variables to analyze the overall effect of demographic transition on economic growth. The results, based on data from seventy countries over the period 1961–2003, reveal that GDP per capita growth is positively related to the growth differential between the working-age population and the total population, and negatively related to child and old-age dependency ratios. Based on these results, they find that population dynamics explain 46 percent of economic growth in per capita GDP in China over the period 1961–2003, 39 percent in India, and 25 percent in Pakistan. Furthermore, population dynamics are expected to have a positive effect on economic growth in India and Pakistan over the period 2005–2050, and a negative effect in China.