Metropolitan suburbanization and central city problems

This paper is an empirical study of effects of central city problems on population and employment suburbanization. It is widely believed that high crime, high taxes, and large minority groups in central cities are important causes of rapid suburbanization of U.S. metropolitan areas. A large set of density functions is estimated for population and employment in U.S. metropolitan areas in 1960 and 1970. Thus, relative central city and suburban measures of crime, taxes, etc., are used in an interactive model to explain population and employment suburbanization. It is found that only racial minorities have an effect on suburbanization.     

Regional growth and interstate migration

The current study examines a simultaneous equation model of interstate migration using income growth, employment growth, unemployment growth, population growth, gross migration, and employment in manufacturing as endogenous variables. The results show that neither the growth of employment nor the growth of income in the destination location has been directly important determinants of migration flow. However, an indirect effect through the population variable can be discerned for these variables, and this has important policy implications. A key feature of this migration model is that it incorporates most of the determinant factors as rates of change over time. The study sheds light on the joint and indirect effects of migration and other endogenous variables and draws some important policy implications pertaining to growth.     

IMPACT OF RELATIVE POPULATION CHANGE ON REGIONAL INCOME CONVERGENCE: EVIDENCE FROM TURKEY

The aim of this paper is to show the impact of relative population change on regional income convergence. Using the panel data of 64 Turkish provinces from 1987 to 2000, the results from modified convergence analyses show that both income and per capita income between provinces in Turkey indicate converging patterns. The convergence rates for the provincial per capita income, however, turned out to be about 30 percent larger than that of income. In order to examine this difference, the impact of relative population change on the growth process is incorporated using a decomposition analysis. The findings suggest that 17 percent of the 100 percentage point growth of per capita income resulted from the change in population share in favour of the provinces with high per capita incomes. The existence and pace of regional income convergence, therefore, may well be related to the degree of relative population change.     

Consolidating segmentation: post‐Socialist employment relations in Central and Eastern Europe

The article argues that, of the four major potential mechanisms for integration—the state, tripartite social partnerships, employer and employee organisations and shared values—in Central and Eastern Europe only the trade unions are contributing significantly towards national employment relations convergence. Against a background of imminent European Union accession, incorporation into global production systems, economic growth and gradual improvement in real incomes, four divergent employment relations systems are thus emerging: the state budget, privatised or about to be privatised, private and multinational.     

The role of startups for local labor markets

There are substantial differences in startup activity across US local labor markets. We study the causes and consequences of these differences. Startup productivity shocks are found to drive much of these cross-city differences in startup activity. Examples of such shocks include breakthroughs in biotech that spurred startup formation in San Diego and Philadelphia. Overall, these shocks explain half of the forecast error variance of startup job creation, accounting for 40% of population growth and long-run changes in employment. Shocks to barriers to firm entry have economy-wide effects similar to those of startup productivity shocks but operate largely through the number of startups, rather than their size. We use a novel spatial panel vector autoregression, identifying shocks using shift–share external instruments.     

THE DYNAMICS OF REGIONAL POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT GROWTH

The authors investigate what Muth labels as the "chicken and egg" or what others label it as "jobs follow people" versus "people follow jobs" debate by studying the dynamic relationships of changes in population and employment in the snowbelt, the sunbelt, and the nine census regions of the United States. The vector autoregressive (VAR) modeling method is used for the annual time series data (1955–1988) on population and employment. The Granger causality tests show that, in the snowbelt region, population tends to precede employment, while in the sunbelt region, the opposite is true. The impulse response functions generated for the forecasting decade suggest that "jobs follow people" in the snowbelt and "people follow jobs" in the sunbelt. Similar findings in general hold for the census regions belonging to the snowbelt and sunbelt. These findings raise doubts about the proposition of others that the growth process is either demand or supply-driven in all phases of regional growth.     

高校财会类毕业生供求现状的调查与分析

针对财会行业普通从业人员供过于求、高级财会人才供不应求的现状,本文通过高校、企业、毕业生、政府四方面对财会类毕业生就业问题及原因进行阐述和解析,并提出对应的提升毕业生就业能力的措施,由此改善财会专业学生的培养模式,相信财会人才综合素质的提升必将对整体经济增长做出巨大的贡献。     

CONVERGENCE AND ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE IN GREECE: EVIDENCE AT REGIONAL AND PREFECTURE LEVEL

The purpose of this paper is to test regional convergence and to investigate interregional disparities in terms of per capita income in Greece. The novelty of our study lies in the use of a disaggregated dataset for an extended time period (1971–2003) at two regional levels (NUTS II & NUTS III). Our results indicate that there is β convergence between prefectures but not among regions, while no evidence of σ convergence is found at both regional levels. Also, the GDP geographic concentration and population density have a negative impact on growth, which outweighs the positive growth effect of population geographic concentration and GDP spatial inequality. Thus, policies aiming at the decentralization of economic activity in Greece might enhance growth and regional equality simultaneously. Finally, we do not find economic dualism across geographic areas; however, rich prefectures seem to converge faster than poor ones.     

STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND GROWTH IN CHINA UNDER ECONOMIC REFORMS: PATTERNS,CAUSES AND IMPLICATIONS

This paper investigates the patterns, causes, and implications of China's structural change and its contribution to China's regional growth. Among many other findings, our regression results show that conditional convergence exists across different regions in China. Regional structural change has a convergence effect and regional openness facilitates regional structural change. Structural shocks and structural transformation had the opposite effect on China's interregional convergence during the 1990s, though the combined effect of overall structural change is a convergence effect. We also find that Chinese regions rely more heavily on structural change for labor productivity growth as the economy evolves. In summary, the results of our empirical analysis support the hypothesis underlying the theoretical model of this paper.     

区域经济一体化经济增长收敛性的实证研究

本文采用δ收敛考察欧盟(欧共体)在1955年-2000年和东盟在1965年-2005年区域经济一体化与经济增长收敛的关系,发现欧盟在1955年-1990年呈现显著的经济增长收敛,而东盟成立后经济增长呈发散趋势。本文通过分析认为,呈现经济增长收敛的区域经济一体化具有如下特点:一是经济一体化成员国消除了彼此间的贸易壁垒,区域内部基本实现自由贸易;二是经济一体化成员国之间的贸易流量成为各自对外贸易的主要流量;三是FDI效应导致成员国之间的资源配置进一步优化。     

Managers' employment issues

The authors compare the employment issues in relation to managers in Britain and Australia, within a wider international context. Using the convergence/ divergence debates about the internationalization of management as a point of departure, the article analyses managers' education and development, employment trends, unemployment, recruitment and selection processes, human resource planning, job mobility, career success routes, pay and fringe benefits, and managerial unionization, which is more widespread in these countries than in the USA. The authors note both convergence and divergence between patterns of managerial employment in Britain and Australia compared with Japan, the USA and other countries, but draw attention to the need for more comparative research.     

The general equilibrium effects of congestion externalities

This is the second in a series of three articles on the topic of congestion externalities. We use an urban general-equilibrium model to compute two types of cities: the market-equilibrium city, in which congestion externalities occur, and the optimum city. The optimum city has a more dispersed distribution of employment, and a more concentrated distribution of residence. If the population of the city is fixed, the optimum pricing of transportation generates a per capita welfare gain of $3.78 per week. If the population of the city is endogenous, the internalization of congestion externalities causes the city to grow.     

THE LOCAL EFFECTS OF LARGE DAM RESERVOIRS: U.S. EXPERIENCE, 1975–1995

Dam construction has been an important component of economic development initiatives in the United States. However, few comprehensive empirical studies examine the effects of such projects on local employment and income. This paper employs quasi-experimental control group methods to examine the effects of large dam reservoirs on county income, earnings, population and employment growth for dams opened in the U.S. during the period 1975–1984. The paper shows that large dam reservoirs have some statistically significant positive effects and tend to stimulate growth. There is considerable variation, however, with dams constructed for flood control purposes and dams further away from markets and large cities having less of an effect.     

Contingent work in the UK and Sweden: evidence from the construction industry

This article explores the use of contingent forms of employment in two diverse country contexts—the UK and Sweden—and investigates the influence of changing regulatory and economic conditions over a period that covers the current economic downturn. Drawing on quantitative and qualitative data for the construction sector, the article addresses three questions. How do employers balance their flexibility preferences in the context of regulatory constraints? How has the global recession influenced employer behaviour? And to what extent can the Swedish experience be explained by convergence on other country models? While the UK employment model encourages employers to externalise the risk of unpredictable market conditions through the use of contingent contracts, the more supportive welfare regime in Sweden underpins a resilient preference of employers for open‐ended employment contracts. Ongoing changes in labour market regulation pose challenges to the strongly regulated Swedish model, yet we find only a shared direction of travel with the UK rather than convergence in the use of contingent employment.     

Employment predictions in social impact assessment: An analysis of some unexplored variables

Social scientists investigating the impacts of energy development are increasingly searching for predictive models of the employment benefits to locals. This issue is of extreme importance not only because of the benefits to locals but because of the issue of local benefits as well as the connection with population growth and boom town development. Unfortunately, some of the recent investigations and predictive models are of little utility as a result of certain analytical and methodological faults, including improper assumptions about local labor supply and local preferences. In addition to the assessment of previous investigations, a framework for predicting local employment impacts is suggested. This framework utilizes characteristics and preferences of the local population.     

The Convergence and Divergence of Job Discretion Between Occupations and Institutional Regimes in Europe from 1995 to 2010

Drawing on technical change and institutional theories, this paper examines the convergence and divergence of job discretion between occupations and institutional regimes in Europe from 1995–2010. Latent growth modelling of a pseudo‐panel data set derived from the European Working Conditions Survey reveals that significantly different rates of change have led to an increasing polarization of job discretion between occupations and between Nordic and other European countries. Across occupations the findings are in keeping with routine‐biased technical change rather than skill‐biased technical change theories and suggest that the effects of technical change on job discretion depend largely on whether technology substitutes or complements job tasks. Across countries, the results are in line with employment regime theory, which suggests that institutional differences (particularly employment policies and trade union influence) are driving cross‐national variation in job discretion. Overall, a more comprehensive empirical and theoretical understanding is provided of factors shaping change in a key aspect of job quality, namely job discretion.     

新时期河南农村劳动力转移就业的主要特点及发展趋势分析

河南国民经济和社会发展进入第十二个五年规划时期,河南农民工转移就业呈现新的特点和发展趋势。农民工就业形势依然严峻,总量大且增长速度快;农民工群体年轻化、知识化和技能化新特点显现;农民工转移就业的岗位、方式日趋稳定;河南吸纳农民工就业的能力越来越强,越来越多的农民工在省内转移就业;农民工就业的行业结构出现了一些新的变化;农村劳动力供求关系正从长期"供过于求"转向"总量过剩,结构短缺"的新阶段。在"十二五"及中长期时间内,河南农村劳动力总量供大于求的局面不会改变,转移就业的规模和增长速度将逐渐趋向平稳;转移流动就业的形式仍以流动型和定居型存在;"刘易斯拐点"的迹象即将显现;从长期看,到"十三五"末,河南农村劳动力供给将进入"刘易斯转折点"的第二阶段。劳动人口将出现负增长,农村富余劳动力将由结构性短缺发展到全面短缺。     

Effects of Future Demographic Changes on the US Economy: Evidence from a Long-term Simulation Model

Demographics, especially the size and the age composition of the population, contribute substantially to the growth and structure of any economy. Over the next 55 years, the age composition of the US population will change dramatically, as the post-World War II ‘baby boom’ ages into retirement. In this paper, we use a long-term interindustry macro model of the US economy to examine how the age composition of the US population affects overall economic growth as well as the output/employment structure of the economy. We find that the system of funding government commitments to pension and medical care for the elderly is a primary channel through which demographic effects translate into economic effects.     

Broadband and local growth

I find a positive relationship between broadband expansion and local economic growth. This relationship is stronger in industries that rely more on information technology and in areas with lower population densities. Instrumenting for broadband expansion with slope of terrain leans in the direction of a causal relationship, though not definitively.The economic benefits of broadband expansion for local residents appear to be limited. Broadband expansion is associated with population growth as well as employment growth, and both the average wage and the employment rate—the share of working-age adults that is employed—are unaffected by broadband expansion. Furthermore, expanding broadband availability does not change the prevalence of telecommuting or other home-based work. Like other place-based policies, expanding broadband availability could raise property values and the local tax base, but without more direct benefits for residents in the form of higher wages or improved access to jobs.The analysis relies on the uneven diffusion of broadband throughout the United States, allowing comparisons between areas with greater and less growth in broadband availability. I combine broadband data from the Federal Communications Commission, employment data from the National Establishment Time-Series database, and other economic data from the US Census and BLS to examine broadband availability and economic activity in the US between 1999 and 2006.     

Population growth in U.S. counties, 1840–1990

We examine the location and growth of the U.S. population using county-level census data from 1840 and 1990. Natural characteristics (e.g., access to water transportation) heavily influenced where populations located in 1840, and produced characteristics in existence in 1840 (e.g., educational infrastructure) had a significant influence on subsequent growth. Evidence of population convergence appears only when the most-heavily-populated counties in 1840 are excluded from the sample. Moreover, when counties located on the western frontier are excluded from the full sample, on the assumption that they were relatively far from their steady-state populations, there is evidence of population divergence.