对我国潜在产出、结构预算与财政态势的关联性研究

本文基于新凯恩斯型动态模型的状态空间模型对潜在产出进行估计，并利用估计结果计算出政府财政预算中的结构性成分和周期性成分。通过对周期性预算余额和结构性预算余额的分析发现，我国财政自动稳定器功能较弱，财政收入和支出的周期性波动相对较小；周期性预算余额的变化与经济周期波动相吻合；我国1998年以来的财政态势具有明显的反周期特点，其对于拉动经济增长、减少经济波动起到了重要作用。     

The Role of Symmetry between the Revenue and the Expenditure Side of the Government Budget in the Debate about the Potential Negative Effects of Tax Competition

The effects of capital tax competition are reconsidered in this paper incorporating the argument that the expenditure structure of public budget should reflect its revenue structure. The paper offers a small open economy model where capital and labour tax revenues are used exclusively on the provision of public inputs. It is shown that if the revenue side of the government budget exactly matches the expenditure side that is if industrial public goods are financed by both private production factors with the weights reflecting the contributions of public inputs to the private factor productivity then public inputs are provided optimally even in the presence of tax competition.     

Estimating the economic impacts of public spending in a sub-region: an econometric approach.

Expenditures on a public institution represent not only a cost to the taxpayer but an economic benefit to the region in which it is located. The economic impact on a region's income is here calculated through an econometric model and associated multipliers. The impact on government income tax recepits is similarly calculated. The tax revenues are also used in determining the net cost of operation of the institution. These calculations are performed for the expenditures associated with the new State University Hospital at Stony Brook, N.Y. located in the region formed by Nassau and Suffolk Countries. The regional income multiplier is found to be 1.64.     

Tax Competition and Revelation of Preferences for Public Expenditure

This paper considers a federal country composed of local jurisdictions that differ in their inhabitants' tastes for public goods, and which finance local public expenditure through a source-based tax on capital income. The taste for public goods is the private information of local governments. The central government seeks an optimal policy, in which grants to local governments are conditioned on local tax rates. The uninformed central government seeks both to allocate capital efficiently among jurisdictions, and to induce jurisdictions to provide an efficient mix of private and public consumption. It is shown that there persist at this constrained optimum both some misallocation of capital and some violation of the Samuelson rule for optimal public good provision in every jurisdiction.     

Introducing the supply side into the LBS Model

This Briefing Paper describes a new version of the London Business School model, which incorporates our most recent research on the supply side. The changes reflect the desire to improve the specification of the supply-side of the model, and to capture the effects of taxes on the incentives to save, invest and to work, while still retaining the basic features of the income-expenditure framework. The main features of the new model are: - Gross domestic product is determined as the sum of the outputs of five sectors. Previously GDP was determined by the demand side as the sum of the expenditure components. - Domestic demand for the output of the private sector depends on domestic absorption and on the price of this output relative to import prices. Overseas demand for exports depends on world economic activity and on the price of exports relative to the world price of exports. - Supply depends on the capital stock, real unit labour costs and real raw material prices. In the short run, input prices are allowed to affect the mix between goods which are exported and those which are supplied to the domestic market. In the long run, however, the mix depends only on the price of exports relative to the price of domestically supplied goods (i.e., relative profitability). - In the short run, disequilibrium in the goods market is reflected in adjustments to prices, inventories and the external balance. - Since gross domestic product is determined by summing the output of each sector, output decisions are reconciled with expenditure decisions by making imports the difference between final expenditure and aggregate supply. - In the long run, increases in government expenditure crowd out private expenditure, but the effect takes several years to come through. - A cut in corporation taxes which is not financed by higher taxes elsewhere boosts the supply side by raising investment and the capital stock, but not by enough to raise revenues sufficiently to pay for the tax cut. Private sector saving increases but not by enough to fund higher public sector borrowing, so the current account goes into deficit. - In the short run, both supply and demand factors influence economic activity; in the long run, the path of the economy depends only on population growth, capital accumulation and technical progress.     

Too big or too small? A synthetic view of the commitment problem of interregional transfers

There is a growing body of literature on the commitment problem of interregional transfers. The problem occurs because of an ex post bailout by a central government leading to ex ante adverse incentive consequences for a local government. However, different models have yielded different economic consequences. The local government may be too large, overspending and/or overborrowing, or it may be too small, raising less of its own revenue. In the presence of interregional spillovers, the equilibrium may yield a Pareto-efficient outcome. The present paper aims to synthesize these models, developing a simple decentralized leadership model. A critical question concerns what decision is made ex ante by the local government—namely public expenditure or tax collection—with the remaining policy instrument being residual adjusted by ex post transfers. We discuss how different scenarios affect the equilibrium outcome.     

Too big or too small? A synthetic view of the commitment problem of interregional transfers

There is a growing body of literature on the commitment problem of interregional transfers. The problem occurs because of an ex post bailout by a central government leading to ex ante adverse incentive consequences for a local government. However, different models have yielded different economic consequences. The local government may be too large, overspending and/or overborrowing, or it may be too small, raising less of its own revenue. In the presence of interregional spillovers, the equilibrium may yield a Pareto-efficient outcome. The present paper aims to synthesize these models, developing a simple decentralized leadership model. A critical question concerns what decision is made ex ante by the local government—namely public expenditure or tax collection—with the remaining policy instrument being residual adjusted by ex post transfers. We discuss how different scenarios affect the equilibrium outcome.     

Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth

This paper surveys the literature on fiscal policy and economic growth. We present a unifying framework for the analysis of long run growth implications of government expenditures and revenues. We find that several tax rates and expenditure categories exhibit a direct impact on the growth rate of the economy. In a creative synthesis we have assigned the relevant literature to the twelve introduced policy variables. Due to the equivalence of some policy variables we are left with six degrees of freedom, where we need four to internalize the model's intrinsic externalities, leaving two instruments to conduct short run fiscal policy.     

UK Forecast in detail

On the face of it, recent public sector net borrowing numbers suggest that the Government's deficit reduction ambitions are stalling, with borrowing higher than last year despite a more favourable economic backdrop. But the underlying picture is less gloomy, with the recent disappointing numbers largely due to the comparison with the early part of fiscal year 2013–14, when revenues had been temporarily boosted by receipts from the Swiss Capital Tax and by high earners deferring income from the previous tax year to take advantage of the reduction in the top rate of income tax…     

Carbon taxes and the double dividend hypothesis in a recursive-dynamic CGE model for Spain

A carbon tax is potentially a policy that can reduce CO₂ emissions and mitigate climate risks, at lowest economy-wide costs. We develop a dynamic CGE model for Spain to assess the economic and environmental effects of a carbon tax, and test the double dividend (DD) hypothesis. We simulate the impact of three carbon taxes: €10, €20 and €30 per ton of CO₂. For each tax, four ‘revenue recycling’ scenarios are examined: a reduction of taxes on capital, on labor, on value-added tax, and a scenario in which revenues are not recycled. We find a DD for taxes of €10/ton and lower, within five to seven years of implementation. We estimate an annual CO₂ emissions reduction of around 10% with this tax. Under some circumstances, the DD can be achieved for a tax of €20/ton. In any case, recycling revenues to cut pre-existing taxes reduces costs of imposing carbon taxes.     

Public spending,public governance and economic growth at the Vietnamese provincial level: A disaggregate analysis

This study examines the role of economic governance in the relationship between public spending, private investment, and economic growth in Vietnam at the provincial level. The study data consist of sixty-two Vietnamese provinces for the period 2006–2015. Some notable results are attained by applying a sequential (two-stage) estimation. First, the marginal benefits to economic growth of increased Vietnamese provincial government expenditures may be constrained because of the inefficiency of expenditures on education, business services, and public administration. Second, public spending and private investment are found to be substitutes at the provincial level. Third, based on the Provincial Competitiveness Index (PCI) ranking, used as a proxy for provincial public governance in Vietnam, the significance of public governance can be observed. The study concludes that good governance, characterized by different attributes, such as lower informal charges, greater transparency, and unbiased policy, plays a critical role in improving the impact of government expenditure on economic growth in Vietnamese provinces, particularly through its interactions with private sector investment.     

住房保障视角下的房地产税改革策略研究

房地产税改革不仅仅关系到中央和地方间的财事权分配、普通居民的税收负担,关系到房地产市场的稳定发展,也会对我国城镇住房保障体系的建设和创新形成制度约束.本文介绍了房地产税收政策支持住房保障体系建设的国际经验,运用经济学理论,分析了在我国当前的住房保障制度中,房地产税改革对不同类型保障性住房建设和运营的影响.在此基础上,提...     

Fiscal policies in open cities with firms and households

This paper provides an equilibrium numerical model of an open city economy with mobile firms and resident workers. Given household preferences and firm technologies and an exogenous configuration of city tax rates and national grants and fiscal mandates, the model calculates equilibrium values for aggregate city economic activity, factor prices, and finally, local tax bases, revenues, and public goods provision. The model is calibrated to the Philadelphia economy for Fiscal Year 1998. We then explore the economic and fiscal consequences of raising city tax rates and the city’s ability to finance rising local welfare payments. We find the city to be incapable of bearing significant increases in local responsibility for welfare transfers.     

乡镇政府财务收支状况改善路径研究

我国取消了农业税附加的相关政策带来了一系列的影响,同时乡镇财务的收支状况也出现了不同程度的恶化。农村的基本建设义务教育投入、公益事业的发展资金不足,想要基层政府的有效运行,上级财政要为乡镇企业确定合理的税收来源,利用转移支付制度来保证农村教育以及公益事业的投入。此外,乡镇政府也可以取消农业税后作为乡镇职能转变的基础,在大力征收减支活动基础上发展乡镇经济,促进乡镇经济的发展,增强乡镇的经济实力。     

Socioeconomic Impacts of Disinvestment on Communities in New York State

Abstract . In order to determine the effect of industrial decline on local tax revenues and to discern the stresses caused by higher demand for social services in a period of government fiscal crisis, the industrial migration activities and local government budgets of New York State from 1962 to 1976 are analyzed. These regression analyses show that: (1) manufacturing decline handicaps the growth of local property tax revenues; (2) when possible, local governments compensate for their lost property tax revenues by raising non-property taxes; displaced workers are likely to seek public assistance; and (4) local welfare expenditures do not correspond to the soaring social service demands. Provided that plant openings seldom re-employ displaced workers, the authors suggest that it is as important for local governments to adopt policies for retaining their current manufacturing plants as to attract new industrial investments.     

The Effectiveness of Tax-Expenditure Limitations: A Re-evaluation

A bstract . A 1982 study of the efficacy and impact of tax and expenditure limitations (TEL) is updated. Utilizing various statistical comparisons, growth in expenditures and revenues in states with TELs is compared to growth in states without a TEL in place. This comparison matches growth in the pre tax revolt years with growth in the post revolt years. In all cases the statistical tests show that the existence of a TEL has had virtually no impact on the growth of statewide expenditures or revenues. Additionally, while aggregate state expenditures and revenues exhibited some decline during the tax revolt years, this decline was short-lived and has since been reversed. Thus, the primary implication is that TELs as presently construed are an ineffective means of limiting growth in state budgets     

On the role of government in a stochastically growing open economy

The relationship between the size of government, economic growth, and volatility in a small open economy is analyzed. First, we characterize the stochastic equilibrium for a centrally planned economy, contrasting it with a closed economy. The role of government consumption expenditure both as a stabilizing and a destabilizing factor is discussed. The optimal size of government is derived and we find that an open economy will have a larger government if and only if it is a net creditor. Second, the stochastic equilibrium in a decentralized economy is characterized and the optimal tax structure derived. Finally, the role of government production expenditure and its impact on risk is briefly discussed.     

Finland and the mobile phone industry: A case study of the return on investment from government-funded research and development

The sudden and dramatic growth of the mobile phone manufacturing sector in Finland is an interesting case study for science and technology (S&T) policy analysts. Mostly on account of the rapidity of this growth against a relatively static situation for the other sub-sectors, the Finnish economic data over the period 1990–2001 can be used without ambiguity to quantify the return of an initial public sector research and development (R&D) expenditure on the growth of a sectoral economy. Although it is apparent from the data that this economic success story is to some extent now running out of steam, the returns to date for all the participants have been astonishing. Using the Patterson–Hartmann model, which has been developed to link company-level R&D expenditure with product revenue, it is shown that government has managed to achieve a multiplier effect of about 66 on its initial R&D expenditure through initially a leveraging of business R&D expenditure (at a level of 1:3) and then the translation of the latter into an increase in gross domestic product (GDP) (at a level of 1:22). These figures are extraordinarily high, even in comparison to the multipliers obtained by large private sector companies.The keys to the success were both the vision and foresight of the Finnish R&D community, who identified cell phones as a major growth opportunity, the sharing of risk by the various role players (government, universities and industry) as can happen in an efficient national system of innovation, and finally a sustained commitment to R&D by the industry leaders. The latter has now reached a level of 3.5% of GDP (2005), which makes Finland a global leader in R&D expenditure (as a percentage of GDP). The lessons for developing countries such as South Africa, which are moving towards higher levels of R&D expenditure but within a resource constrained context, are apparent.