中国股市对经济增长作用的实证检验

关于金融体系和经济增长之间关系的争论由来已久。本文在分析国外关于这一争论的研究成果的基础上,对中国的股票市场发展与经济增长之间的关系做了一系列实证检验,考察了金融体系的一个组成部分———股票市场与经济增长的关系。检验结果说明,中国股市发展与经济增长之间的相关性不高,回归结果也不能说明中国股市发展会推动经济增长。     

转型期股票市场和经济增长:微观行为机制分析

本文对股票市场与经济增长的关系进行了微观分析。在建立模型的基础上分析了股票市场对经济增长作用的传导机制,结合中国转型期经济的实际情况对股票市场和经济增长的关系进行了考察和假设。从总体上说,中国的股票市场对经济增长的作用影响不大。     

我国股票市场与经济增长弱相关性的实证分析

我国股票市场与经济增长之间究竟存在怎样的关系,在理论界一直存在争议,本文对二者之间的关系进行了理论研究并通过经济计量学中的多元回归模型展开了实证分析,最后得出我国股票市场与经济增长之间存在弱相关性的结论。     

我国股票市场发展与经济增长关系的实证分析

本文首先对我国股票市场发展与经济增长的关系进行了描述性分析,然后采用统计软件EVIEWS以1994年第季度到2004年第2季度的股票市场数据,对股票市场发展与经济增长的关系进行了实证分析,得到了一些结论.     

我国股票流通市场与经济增长关系的实证研究

本文通过研究股票流通市场规模,股票市场流动性和股票市场收益率等因素与经济增长之间的关系,发现股票流通市场的发展与经济增长之间基本成负相关的关系。     

制度因素对中国金融发展影响的实证研究

一般认为,金融发展与经济增长存在正相关关系,金融发展能够促进经济的增长,对于金融发展的原因学术界也进行了一些探索。本文根据已有的研究成果,结合中国改革开放的进程,对法律和改革开放以来宏观经济制度的变迁与银行发展和股票市场发展的关系进行了Granger因果检验,得出制度变迁对中国的金融发展具有推动作用的结论。     

中国股票市场增长质量实证分析

本文借鉴经济增长理论中索洛模型的研究方法，并运用现代统计学分析方法对中国股票市场进行实证检验，得出中国股票市场服从机械增长模式的结论；对其原因进行了剖析，提出了提高中国股票市场增长质量的建议。     

FDI对中国经济增长的实证研究——基于金融发展的视角

人们普遍认为,外商直接投资(FDI)可以促进经济的增长。但是,理论的实现需要有一个前提,即东道国必须有一个相对发达的金融体系。文章主要研究中国经济增长与外商直接投资间的关系,特别是基于金融发展的视角进行实证检验,通过建立包括GDP、FDI以及交叉项的VAR模型进行研究。特别是,交叉项等于FDI乘以金融发展指标,引入该因子解释了由金融业发展所影响的外商直接投资,并且选取了两个可以代表中国金融业发展水平的因素:银行部门和股票市场。在银行部门中,FDI对经济增长的积极影响是显而易见的;然而,这种影响的程度是有限的;而在股票市场中,FDI和金融发展的交互作用没有对中国国内生产总值和FDI之间的关系产生重大影响。     

区域金融发展与经济增长关系实证研究——以山东省为例

区域金融发展与经济增长关系的实证是金融发展理论研究的深化。以山东省为研究区域,通过构建反映区域金融发展与经济增长全貌的指标体系,运用主成分分析、基于VAR系统的多重协整检验等计量方法和统计技术,可得到四组八个协整方程。实证结果表明:山东金融机构规模,股票市场发展,经济金融化综合水平与经济增长和投资之间均存在长期均衡关系,且为正相关;但金融机构低效率却影响了经济增长。对这一实证结果的经济解释,能够为山东进一步深化区域金融体制改革提供有益的启示。     

中国金融体系与经济增长——基于2001年-2010年中国数据的实证分析

文章采用2001年至2010年的季度数据对我国银行体系、股票市场与经济增长之间的关系进行Grange因果检验和过度识别条件约束下的多元协整向量分析。结果表明，股票市场的资本化率指标与经济增长指标之间存在单向的Granger因果关系，即股市规模单向促进了经济的增长；银行部门与经济增长指标之间存在双向的Granger因果关系且相关关系为正。多元协整分析结果显示银行体系、股票市场的规模与经济增长在长期呈正相关关系，股市波动与经济增长呈负相关关系；其中，银行体系对经济增长的权重最大，表明我国的金融市场是以银行体系为主导；此外股市与经济增长关系的综合表现来看其“经济晴雨表”的功能已经开始有所体现。     

Foreign capital inflows, economic growth and stock market capitalization in Asian countries: an ARDL bound testing approach

This study investigates the effects of foreign capital inflows and economic growth on stock market capitalization in 18 Asian countries by using the panel data from the period of 2000–2010. The ARDL bound testing cointegration approach confirms the valid long run relationship between the considered variables. Results indicate that foreign direct investment has significant negative and economic growth has significant positive relationship with the stock market capitalization, whereas, the results of workers’ remittances is found insignificant in long run. The error correction model confirms the significant positive relationship of economic growth and workers’ remittances while, FDI has negative and significant impact on stock market capitalization in short run. Results of causality test based on Toda and Yamamoto (J Econom 66: 225–250, 1995) show the bidirectional causal relationship of foreign direct investment and economic growth with stock market capitalization. However, no causal relationship is found in between workers’ remittances and stock market capitalization. It is suggested that investor should not idealize the inflow of workers’ remittances to invest in Asian stock markets in long run. Simultaneously, size of the economy is a better leading indicator for Asian stock markets. On the other hand, inflows of FDI may mislead the investor to invest. Investor should keep on eye whether FDI come in the competition of domestic market or not? If this happens so investor should not invest in the stock market of host country.     

转型期我国股票市场规制目标的选择

"为国有企业筹资、推动国民经济增长"这一政府股票市场规制的目标已经不能适应经济发展的要求,监管当局应该将"加强投资者利益保护"作为股票市场规制的核心目标,以进一步推进中国股票市场的可持续发展。保护投资者利益是股票市场政府规制目标的核心。造成我国股票市场投资者保护机制缺失的制度性基础在于政府一身兼三职的制度安排,即政府既是国有上市公司、证券交易所、证券公司的实际或者变相的终极所有者,又是投资者利益的守护神,同时也是证券市场的规制与监管者。     

金融发展对企业技术创新模式影响研究——基于中国高技术产业的实证分析

运用中国高技术产业统计数据,实证分析了金融发展对不同技术创新模式的作用机制,并探讨企业所有权性质对这种作用机制是否存在以及存在何种影响。实证分析结果表明：我国信贷市场发展比股票市场发展对自主创新的促进作用更大,并且这种促进作用并不受到企业所有权性质的影响;信贷市场发展对于增加国有企业R&D经费进而促进自主创新的作用更大,而股票市场发展对于增加民营企业R&D经费进而促进自主创新的促进作用更大、更显著;我国金融发展对于国有企业的自主创新与模仿创新的促进作用较大,而对民营企业的促进作用相对较小。     

Property rights and the stock market-growth nexus

Using threshold estimation techniques, this study examines whether the growth effect of stock market development differs according to the different levels of property rights and minority shareholders protection in a cross-section of 85 jurisdictions during the post-crisis period. The results demonstrate that the impact of stock market liquidity on growth is positive and significant only in jurisdictions where there is high level of property rights protection. Similar effect is discerned in the case of strong minority shareholders protection. Using the market size as a measure of stock market development, the paper also documents a positive growth effect of market size when property rights and minority shareholders protection are strong. However, there is mixed evidence in the low to medium degrees of protection. Further analyses using other broader governance indicators as threshold variables and instrumental variable threshold regressions reaffirm the main findings. The study upholds the “better finance, more growth” proposition and contributes to the identification of thresholds above which institutional quality can positively shape the impact of stock market on economic growth.     

管理主义视角下的中国劳动关系构建方向

随着我国社会主义市场经济体制的建立和完善,多种所有制经济的发展,劳动关系日益成为一种重要的经济关系。劳动关系的和谐,稳定对提高企业生产效率,增强企业竞争力起着重要作用。本文试图从管理主义理论来说西方劳动关系理论对中国劳动关系理论建构的借鉴意义。     

Analysis of the cross-region risk contagion effect in stock market based on volatility spillover networks: Evidence from China

This article uses the stock market regional indexes of 31 provinces (include Province-level municipalities and Minority Autonomous Regions) in mainland China as a sample, and constructs an inter-regional volatility spillover network of China’s stock market based on the GARCH-BEKK model. Through network centrality analysis, Diebold and Yilmaz's spillover index method and block model analysis, we comprehensively analyze the risk contagion effect among different regions in China’s stock market. The empirical results show that: (i) The risk contagion intensity (risk reception intensity) in various regions of China’s stock market has a typical “core-periphery” distribution characteristic due to regions’ different levels of economic development. (ii) There are obvious risk spillover effect in China’s stock market, among which the economically developed regions along the southeastern coast of China, such as Beijing, Shanghai, Zhejiang and Jiangsu, are the main risk transmitters, while the economically undeveloped regions in the Midwest of China, such as Xinjiang, Xizang, Gansu, Nei Menggu and Qinghai are the main risk receivers. (iii) Each region is divided into 4 blocks according to their respective roles in the risk spillover process in China’s stock market. Block 1 that is composed of the economically underdeveloped regions in the Midwest is the “main benefit block”, it acts as a “receiver”. Block 2 that is composed of regions with strong economic growth vitality in the Midwest is a “Bilateral spillover block”, it both plays the role of “receiver” and “transmitter”. Block 3 that is composed of developed regions along the southeast coast, it acts as a “transmitter”; Block 4 that is composed of the relatively fast-growing regions in the Southwest is the “brokers block”, it serves as a “bridge”. The results of this article can provide some reference for investors in financial institutions and decision makers in financial regulators.     

New insights into the role of global factors in BRICS stock markets: A quantile cointegration approach

Because of the acceleration in marketization and globalization, stock markets in the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) countries are affected by various global factors, for example, oil prices, gold prices, global stock market volatility, global economic policy uncertainty, financial stress, and investor sentiment. This paper offers new insights into the short- and long-run linkages between global factors and BRICS stock markets by applying the quantile autoregressive distributed lags (QARDL) approach. This novel methodology enables us to test short- and long-run linkages accounting for distributional asymmetry. That is, the nonlinear dynamic relationship between the global factors and BRICS stock prices depends on market conditions. Our empirical results show that the effects of gold prices and global stock market volatility on BRICS stock prices are more significant in the long run than in the short run. A decrease in global stock market volatility is associated with higher stock prices, while gold prices demonstrate upward co-movement in dynamic correlations with stock markets. Irrational factors, such as economic policy uncertainty, financial stress, and investor sentiment, play a critical role in the short term, and negative interdependence is dominant. Finally, the rolling-window estimation technique is used to examine time-varying patterns between major global factors and BRICS stock markets.     

港口与临港城市经济增长极之间的内在联系

中国的临港城市多是竞争力排名靠前的城市,说明港口的存在对城市的发展起到了促进作用．城市产业发展和港口的关系是现在的热点话题。论文结合法国经济学家费朗索瓦·佩鲁提出的增长极的概念,引入城市产业增长极概念．目的在于研究中国临港城市的发展趋势和特点;并且通过对临港城市各产业增长率的分析与全国各产业增长率的分析比较,找出推动临港城市经济发展的产业增长极,为未来的港口开发建设发展提出建议和参考。