养老金支付缺口：口径、方法与测算分析

基于精算和会计原理,本文对养老金支付缺口的内涵、口径和评估方法做了系统梳理和对比分析,并在不同口径和方法下,对我国城镇基本养老保险社会统筹基金的支付缺口进行了测算,分析了人口、经济和制度因素变动对测算结果的影响。结论表明,尽管在不同评估目的下,养老金支付缺口有不同的评估口径和评估方法,选择不同的精算假设,会得出有差异的评估结果,但在人口老龄化和人口长寿的总体趋势下,我国的养老金支付缺口呈现不断增大的趋势,如果不改革现行制度,养老金的财务可持续性将面临挑战。     

Beveridge versus Bismarck public-pension systems in integrated markets

The two basic systems according to which pay-as-you-go-financed public-pension systems can be organized are the (Anglo-Saxon) Beveridge system and the (continental) Bismarck system. An ideal Beveridge system provides flat-rate benefits, whereas an ideal Bismarck system provides earnings-related benefits. This paper analyzes the circumstances under which a Beveridge system can be sustainable in systems competition with a Bismarck system. The analysis reveals a much more complicated redistributive structure of the pension systems than only between high and low incomes. As a consequence, the sustainability depends on growth rates, and equilibria can exist where, contrary to the first intuition, even poor individuals prefer a Bismarck and rich individuals prefer a Beveridge system.     

The Role of Defined Benefit Pension Plans in Executive Compensation

Abstract

Although defined benefit (DB) pension plans constitute a significant portion of both annual compensation and firm-related wealth for many CEOs, prior studies of CEO compensation contracts generally exclude these plans from their analyses due to lack of data. Taking advantage of recently increased disclosure requirements, we analyse the role of DB pension plans in these contracts. We find that firms with CEO DB pension plans grant the CEO annual compensation that is larger than predicted by economic determinants. We also find that more powerful CEOs, identified by their extraordinary pension benefits, receive higher total pay in addition to the pension benefits. We find no evidence that CEO pension benefits contribute to the pay-for-performance sensitivity of the annual pay.     

年金会计相关问题研究

本文对企业年金的性质和年金会计主体进行了界定,认为年金的会计处理应建立在劳动报酬观的基础上,并以企业和年金基金为双重主体进行会计核算。在此基础上,讨论了西方企业年金会计准则对缴费确定型计划和待遇确定型计划的会计处理方法及其信息披露,同时对我国企业年金会计准则的相关内容进行了比较说明,并对如何完善我国企业年金会计的发展提出了建议。     

Regime shifts in stock–flow I(2)–I(1) systems: the case of US fiscal sustainability

In the last two decades, fiscal sustainability has been tested through the use of non‐stationary time series analysis. Two different approximations can be found in the literature: first, a univariate approach that has focused on the stochastic properties of the stock of debt and, second, a multivariate one that has focused on the long‐run properties of the flows of expenditures and revenues, i.e., in the stochastic properties of the deficit. In this paper we unify these approaches considering the stock–flow system that fiscal variables configure. Our approach involves working in an I(2) stochastic processes framework. Given the possibility of the existence of regime shifts in the sustainability of US deficit that the literature has pointed out, we develop a new statistic that can be applied to test several types of I(2) cointegration and multicointegration relationships allowing for regime shifts. To test for these kinds of changing long‐run relationships we propose the use of a residual‐based Dickey–Fuller class of statistic that accounts for one structural break. We show that consistent estimates of the break fraction can be obtained through the minimization of the sum of squared residuals when there is I(2) cointegration. The finite sample performance of the proposed statistic is investigated by Monte Carlo simulations. The econometric methodology is applied to assess whether the US fiscal deficit and debt are sustainable. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Using simulation as a tool in selecting a retirement age under defined benefit pension plans

This paper examines how simulation modeling can be used to select a retirement age under defined benefit pension plans. This approach construes the variables affecting pension benefits as probabilistic variables. Simulations are then run to generate probabilistic values for the real value of pension benefits for alternative retirement ages. By construing variables affecting pension benefits as probability distributions, this approach reflects the uncertainty facing individuals contemplating retirement. By generating estimates of retirement benefits as probability distributions rather than as single deterministic values, the model provides individuals with a more realistic and complete frame of reference for making the retirement decision. The author is grateful to an anonymous referee and Joachim Zietz. JEF editor, for helpful comments.     

Pensions, non-discrimination policies, and the employment of older workers

This paper analyzes firms' decisions to hire older workers. We model, the role of pensions in back-loading pay for specifically trained workers. We then evaluate the effects, of imposing age discrimination rules and non-discriminatory fringe benefit rules, and analyze the consequences for the firm's decision to hire older versus younger individuals. The model predicts that defined benefit pension plans deter the hiring of older workers, but only if hired for entry level position. The reason is f hat the wages of this group cannot be lowered enough to pay for the benefits. Data from a new survey of employers are used to test this hypothesis. The findings show that a more generous defined benefit pension plan reduces employment prospects for older, entry level workers. Employers offering defined benefit pension, plans employ older workers, but tend not to hire them into entry level jobs.     

Pensions: theories of underfunding

The widespread underfunding of private defined benefit pensions has generated concern over the viability of employers' promises of retirement benefits. Years ago, similar concerns led to the creation of pension benefit insurance plans by governments in the United States and a number of other countries. This paper studies the causes of underfunding in an environment without pension benefit insurance. We find that the optimal level of retirement benefits will be offered and fully funded if the employer has sufficient internal funds or is able to borrow all it needs. If loans are not enforceable, an employer with limited resources will generally underfund pensions. Further, if pension investments earn lower returns than other investments, pensions will be underfunded. Thus, the paper highlights the link between financial markets and the underfunding of pensions.     

A new contract for welfare: partnership in pensions

The government's Green Paper proposes reducing state pension costs whilst encouraging private sector provision. The success of the proposed ‘stakeholder pension schemes’ depends on regulation. However, regulation can penalise those it is intended to protect. This is a sensitive issue, since stakeholder pension schemes are expected to attract financially vulnerable, lower paid, employees. Whilst the flat rate accrual of the state second pension confers some benefit, certain groups are put in a difficult position by the retention of means-tested benefits.     

随机利率下缴费预定计划职业年金的替代率研究

事业单位养老保险制度改革关系到我国基本养老保险制度的改革进程和可持续发展问题,而面对事业单位养老金替代率90％,企业单位替代率60％的差距,事业单位养老保险制度改革遇到了一定的阻力．本文考察了如果采用缴费预定计划（Dc计划）建立职业年金,事业单位养老保险的替代率问题．养老金的投资收益率是影响替代率的关键因素,而这一因素受金融市场影响较大,这里假设它为随机变量。研究发现：（1）由于女性职工的法定退休年龄早,平均寿命又比较长,对于相同的缴费率,男性的养老金替代率明显高于女性的替代率;（2）缴费率是影响替代率的另一因素,为了保持较为合理的替代率,实现养老保险制度的平稳改革,我们建议合适的缴费率为11%。     

Individual Differences in Attractiveness of Jobs Based on Compensation Package Components

The primary purpose of the present study was to examine the effect of salary level, amount of leave per year, the extent of cost-sharing for health care insurance coverage, and type of retirement plan on individuals’ job choice within a United States employment context. Salary, amount of vacation time, cost of health insurance, and type of retirement plan predicted the likelihood that individuals would apply for a position as well as accept the position if it were offered to them. While the type of retirement plan had an effect, there was virtually no difference based on whether the retirement plan was a defined benefit pension plan, a 401 K plan, or a company stock plan. There were no interactions between compensation plan components suggesting recruits do not consider salary as a substitute for benefits. Marital status, benefit history, attitudes towards earnings, and risk propensity predicted the relative importance placed on salary and specific benefits in the compensation package.     

Higher interest rates should not unduly faze consumers

• ? Though the MPC has signalled a more aggressive pace of interest hikes than previously anticipated, we still expect the impact on the consumer sector in aggregate to be modest. We estimate that household debt servicing costs will rise from the current level of 4.1% of household income to 5.0% by the end of 2019. This would still be only a little over half the pre‐crisis peak.
• ? We expect the MPC to hike interest rates twice in both 2018 and 2019, taking Bank Rate to 1.5% by the end of next year. Higher interest rates will impact on consumer spending by increasing debt servicing costs and reducing the attractiveness of credit (including mortgages), but savers will benefit from higher returns on their deposits.
• ? Mortgages account for 77% of loans to UK households and full pass through of a 100bp rise in Bank Rate to variable rate loans, implying an increase from 2.78% to 3.78%, would add £100 a month to the cost of servicing an average mortgage. But only two‐fifths of borrowers have a variable rate deal, so for many homeowners the adjustment to higher interest rates will not be immediate. And the proportion of houses which are owned via a mortgage has fallen over the past decade, suggesting that the household sector as a whole will be less sensitive to higher mortgage interest rates.
• ? Historically the relationship between Bank Rate and interest rates on unsecured lending has been weak and rates on credit cards and personal loans have not yet risen following November's rate hike. The link to deposit rates has been stronger and higher returns on savings will mitigate some of the damage to household income from higher debt servicing costs, although uneven distribution of debt and savings means that there will be winners and losers at a more disaggregated level.
• ? We have used the Oxford Economics Global Economic Model to run a counterfactual scenario where Bank Rate is kept at 0.5% throughout 2018 and 2019. The results suggest that the pace of rate hikes assumed in our baseline forecast would reduce the level of consumer spending by 0.2 percentage points by the end of 2019.

     

The Effects of UI Benefits on Unemployment and Subsequent Outcomes: Evidence from a Kinked Benefit Rule

This paper analyses the effects of unemployment insurance benefits on unemployment exits and subsequent labour market outcomes. We exploit a piecewise linear relationship between the previous wage and benefits in Finland to identify the causal effects of the benefit level by using a regression kink design. Although we only find weak evidence of an effect on the time to the next job, higher benefits decrease the time spent in part-time unemployment and thus result in more full-time unemployment. The re-employment probability and post-unemployment wage are also negatively affected. The results for the duration of the first post-unemployment job are not conclusive, but in total both employment and earnings in the two years following the beginning of the unemployment spell decrease with higher benefits.     

The Long Run Problem of Financing the Social Security System

Abstract . The Social Security Amendments of 1972 radically altered the Social Security System (SSS) by including, among other things, provisions whereby the taxable wage base would thereafter rise with increases in the average U.S. wage level and benefits would rise with increases in the Consumer Price Index. These provisions, in fact, have so affected the magnitude of present and potential future social security benefit payments that today, in spite of the restoration of short-run financial viability, the very financial solvency of the system over the long run is at issue. In an attempt to understand this financial solvency problem, three questions are examined: 1) how are social security benefits calculated today; 2) how have the underlying principles of the SSS changed recently; and 3) what does the future of the SSS look like? The results of that examination leave little doubt that the SSS must again be changed significantly if its long run financial solvency is to be restored, but President Carter's recent recommendations for change appear to be only a temporary solution to a long run problem.     

养老金制度及其改革——基于不同福利模式的分析

不同福利模式国家的养老金制度在建立之初就呈现出不同的特征,其发展路径也有所差异,但在结构、参数、管理体系方面的改革呈现出共同的规律。各国基本都建成了多支柱体系或多层次体系;普遍采取了提高费率、延长缴费年限和延迟退休、调整待遇等方式来进行参数改革;并对养老金管理机构采取了横向整合或纵向的集中化改革,建立了养老金投资监管机构。中国逐步建成了三层次养老金体系,并在个人账户、待遇计发等方面进行了参数调整,同时在统筹层级、征缴机构、投资管理体系方面进行了改革。中国养老金制度仍存在未实现全国统筹、结构失衡、基金可持续性差等问题,可借鉴国际经验,在结构、参数、管理机构等方面进行改革。     

人口老龄化背景下发达国家社会保障事业面临的财政压力

本文用数据详细介绍了人口老龄化给发达国家的社会保障事业带来了巨大压力,政府支出中用于社会保障和医疗保险的比例在以越来越快的速度上升,财政赤字和政府债务不断攀升.虽然老年人抚养比上升是导致这一结果的一个重要因素,但养老金制度和其他相关社会保障制度所导致的老龄人口劳动参与率的下降至少同样重要.这对于正处在建设初期的中国社会保障制度有着既现实又深远的借鉴意义.     

论企业年金负债的会计处理对企业资本结构的影响

实施企业年金计划企业的会计报表显示，这些企业的财务杠杆率相对企业的举债能力而言普遍偏低，但如果企业将年金计划的偿付责任作为企业长期负债合并到企业资产负债表中，则这类企业的低财务杠杆率相对于最优财务杠杆率的差距将减小。本文从企业年金缴费对应征税收入影响和会计处理的角度，分析了企业年金计划对企业边际税率和企业资本结构调整的作用。     

The anatomy of trade union benefits in the 1960's

Pre-1914, average union expenditure per head on benefits almost equalled the average wage; today it is only one-twentieth of average earnings. In analysing the trends in benefit patterns, the authors discuss such factors as the low level of expenditure on unemployment benefit, the rising trend of dispute benefit in the 1960's, the run down of superannuation benefits, and the increase in expenditure on sickness and accident, and the increase in contributions to educational programmes. They also consider probable future developments.     

Managing the Contingent Workforce—Gaining the Advantages, Avoiding the Pitfalls

Part-time employment arrangements constitute a rapidly growing segment of the U.S. labor force. Such employment arrangements offer advantages to both employers and employees. Part-time employees offer employers reduced wage and benefit costs, workforce flexibility, aid for special projects, replacement fill-ins and a chance to preview candidates for full-time employment. Part-time work enables employees to supplement family income, enjoy flexible hours as well as a change in job environment and a chance to substitute for full-time employment when there is no choice. The advantages of contingent employment come at a cost. Employers must comply with laws and give up control over much of the employment relationship in order to avoid co-employment status and to gain the benefits of contingent employment. Employees in contingent work arrangements frequently do not qualify for many of the benefits available to full time employees. Suggestions made for managing contingent workers may reduce some of the problems, but they would also remove some of the advantages.     

DEFINING THE GOVERNMENT'S DEBT AND DEFICIT

Although the budget deficit and the public debt feature prominently in political debate and economic research, there is no agreement about how they should be measured. They can be defined for different sets of public institutions, including the nested sets corresponding to central government, general government, and the public sector, and, for any definition of government, there are many measures of the debt and deficit, including those generated by four kinds of accounts (cash, financial, full accrual, and comprehensive), which can be derived from four nested sets of assets and liabilities. Each debt and deficit measure says something about public finances, but none tells the whole story. Each is also vulnerable to manipulation, and is likely to be manipulated if it is subject to a binding fiscal rule or target. Narrow definitions of government encourage the shifting of spending to entities outside the defined perimeter of government. Narrow definitions of debt and deficit encourage operations involving off‐balance‐sheets assets and liabilities, while broad measures are susceptible to the mismeasurement of on‐balance‐sheet assets and liabilities. Reviewing the literature on these issues, the paper concludes that governments should publish several measures of the debt and deficit in a form that clearly reveals their interrelationships.