CROSS‐COUNTRY RANKINGS IN INTERGENERATIONAL MOBILITY: A COMPARISON OF APPROACHES FROM ECONOMICS AND SOCIOLOGY

Abstract This paper summarizes research on the relative level of intergenerational mobility – whether classified by income, education or social class. The literatures on education and income mobility reveal a similar ranking with South America, other developing nations, southern European countries and France tending to have rather limited mobility although the Nordic countries exhibit strong mobility. Estimates of mobility based on social class point to rather different patterns, and we demonstrate that these differences are most likely generated by intergenerational earnings persistence within social classes. The second part of the paper looks for explanations for the differences in earnings and education persistence and finds that mobility is negatively correlated with inequality and the return to education but positively correlated with a nation's education spending.     

Estimation of sons' intergenerational earnings mobility in the presence of censoring

Based on intergenerational data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, I provide estimates of income mobility across generations for men. Special attention is paid to issues of censoring caused by a son's unemployment. Employing non‐parametric bounds estimates, I illustrate that previous income mobility estimates rely heavily on (unjustified) assumptions of exogenous selection. Assuming a son's potential income is instead a function of his reason for unemployment and work history, I re‐estimate mobility. Allowing for sampling variability, the range of feasible slopes consistent with these modified bounds restrictions is 0.27 to 0.55. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Intergenerational Earnings Mobility Among Daughters and Sons: Evidence from Sweden and a Comparison with the United States

This article adopts Chadwick and Solon's (2002 ) model by using family earnings in the study of intergenerational earnings mobility with a highlight on the role of assortative mating. I analyze mean and quantile regression coefficients as well as transition matrices to investigate family earnings mobility between parents and daughters and parents and sons from Swedish register data. My findings indicate that Sweden has a higher degree of mobility compared to the United States, and that assortative mating also plays an important role as a channel through which income status is transmitted across generations in Sweden. However, the difference in intergenerational mobility patterns between the two countries does not, inherently, depend on factors that affect the marriage match. Swedish daughters and sons exhibit a rather similar scheme of intergenerational earnings transmission. Daughters tend to be slightly more mobile than sons, and the difference between their elasticity estimates is small but statistically significant. The quantile regression approach reveals that parents' family earnings are less important as an explanatory variable at the upper end of the children's earnings distribution than they are at the bottom, while transition matrices show substantial earnings persistence in the top earnings class.     

Distributional Effects of a Continuous Treatment with an Application on Intergenerational Mobility

This paper considers the effect of a continuous treatment on the entire distribution of outcomes after adjusting for differences in the distribution of covariates across different levels of the treatment. Our methodology encompasses dose-response functions, counterfactual distributions, and ‘distributional policy effects’ depending on the assumptions invoked by the researcher. We propose a three-step estimator that consists of (i) estimating the distribution of the outcome conditional on the treatment and other covariates using quantile regression; (ii) for each value of the treatment, averaging over a counterfactual distribution of the covariates holding the treatment fixed; (iii) converting the resulting counterfactual distribution into parameters of interest that are easy to interpret. We show that our estimators converge uniformly to Gaussian processes and that the empirical bootstrap can be used to conduct uniformly valid inference across a range of values of the treatment. We use our method to study intergenerational income mobility where we consider effects of parents’ income on features of their child's income distribution such as (i) the fraction of children with income below the poverty line; (ii) the variance of child's income; and (iii) the inter-quantile range of child's income–all as a function of parents’ income.     

Moving Towards Estimating Sons' Lifetime Intergenerational Economic Mobility in the UK

Estimates of intergenerational economic mobility that use point in time measures of income and earnings suffer from lifecycle and attenuation bias. They also suffer from sample selection issues and further bias driven by spells out of work. We consider these issues together for UK data, the National Child Development Study and British Cohort Study, for the first time. When all three biases are considered, our best estimate of lifetime intergenerational economic persistence in the UK is 0.43 for children born in 1970. Whilst we argue that this is the best available estimate to date, we discuss why there is good reason to believe that this is still a lower bound, owing to residual attenuation bias.     

The effect of migration on rural residents’ intergenerational subjective social status mobility in China

Using China Labor-Force Dynamics Survey data, we evaluate the effect of migration on rural residents’ intergenerational subjective social status mobility. Intergenerational subjective social status mobility of Chinese rural migrants shows a significant upward trend between 2007 and 2021. Overall, a significant positive effect of migration on the rural residents’ intergenerational subjective social status mobility. In particular, the 1950s birth cohort and middle-western region of China rural residents’ migration has a stronger positive effect on the intergenerational subjective social status mobility. Migration affects rural residents’ intergenerational subjective social status mobility through increased economic satisfactory, increased social capital, increased employment ratio and degree of hard work.

     

Intragenerational mobility and the concept of the equalization of longer-term incomes: An estimation for a developing country

This paper calculates the degree of intragenerational income mobility and carries out the decomposition of the influence of observable characteristics on income mobility. Using the concept of mobility as the equalization of longer-term incomes, we quantify the class of measures called the E index using administrative records for social security contributions of formally employed young adults in Colombia between 2010 and 2018. In addition, we use the Recentered Influence Function (RIF) decomposition method to extend its application to the E index and decompose the influence of observable characteristics on our estimates. Our findings indicate Colombia's mobility is disequalizing. We also show that female mobility is even more disequalizing than male mobility. Our decomposition shows that disequalizing mobility depends on employees' type of contract, economic sector, and location.     

Intergenerational mobility and sample selection in short panels

Using data from the first 11 waves of the BHPS, this paper measures the extent of the selection bias induced by standard coresidence conditions—bias that is expected to be severe in short panels—on measures of intergenerational mobility in occupational prestige. We try to limit the impact of other selection biases, such as those induced by labour market restrictions that are typically imposed in intergenerational mobility studies, by using different measures of socio‐economic status that account for missing labour market information. We stress four main results. First, there is evidence of an underestimation of the true intergenerational elasticity, the extent of which ranges between 12% and 39%. Second, the proposed methods used to correct for the selection bias seem to be unable to attenuate it, except for the propensity score weighting procedure, which performs well in most circumstances. This result is confirmed both under the assumption of missing‐at‐random data as well as under the assumption of not‐missing‐at‐random data. Third, the two previous sets of results (direction and extent of the bias, and differential abilities to correct for it) are also robust when we account for measurement error. Fourth, restricting the sample to a period shorter than the 11 waves under analysis leads to a severe sample selection bias. In the cases when the analysis is limited to eight waves, this bias ranges from about 40% to 65%. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Scope of the Grants Economy and Income Distribution: An Examination of Intergenerational Transfers of Income

A bstract . Private transfers of income between family members have had significant equalizing effects on the distribution of income in the United States but only recently have they become a subject of research and an element of analysis. Some of the major theoretical developments in the area of income distribution and intergenerational mobility in the rich literature of the grants economy are reviewed. Among the effects of family transfers on income distribution, the most critical considerations in intra-family transfers, tentative results indicate, are those that relate, directly or indirectly, to investments in children during their formative years. Estimates of the size of family transfers include one that in a single year their total was of the magnitude of 30.7 percent of gross national product and another that in 1980 they were 70 percent of total transfers, amounting at least to 1 trillion. Trends in their level and structure are projected.     

交通基础设施建设、劳动力流动与城乡收入差距

基于1992—2017年我国29个省区市的面板数据，采用非线性门槛模型系统地分析交通基础设施建设、劳动力流动和城乡收入差距之间的关系。研究结果表明：交通基础设施建设能够有效促进农业劳动力向非农业部门的流动，进而影响城乡收入差距，并且交通基础设施建设对城乡收入差距的影响并非呈现简单的线性相关关系，而是随着农村劳动力转移程度的变化呈现出“U”型的动态相关关系。当农村劳动力转移率低于0.157时，交通基础设施建设能够缩小城乡收入差距；当农村劳动力转移率超过0.288时，交通基础设施建设不利于缩小城乡收入差距，并且随着农村劳动力转移率的进一步提高，交通基础设施建设对城乡收入差距的负面影响会增大。     

Who Gains from the Demographic Dividend? Forecasting Income by Age

Changes in the population age structure are known to influence the total income per person, but little is known about whether the changes are equally shared across the population or are concentrated on particular age groups and/or birth cohorts. The answer to this question has potentially important implications for income inequality, human capital investment, and fertility decision-making. We propose a new model of intergenerational transfers which distinguishes between the effects of changes in population structure and the effects of changes in family age structure. Using age-specific data from annual income and expenditure surveys of Taiwan between 1978 and 1998, we show that changes in age structure have had a very favorable effect on Taiwan's income growth. The gains are not equally shared by all age groups, however. Children and young adults have benefited the most, while the elderly have benefited the least. The population and family age structures have independent effects on per capita income; the effect of the population age structure is most important. Generational differences in per capita income are closely related to intergenerational differences in earnings, suggesting only a weak form of altruism. Finally, we predict that, on average, population aging will adversely influence the per capita income growth in Taiwan in the coming decades.     

Beyond Space: Spatial (Re)Production and Middle‐Class Remaking Driven by Jiaoyufication in Nanjing City,China

An extension of gentrification, jiaoyufication–urban change driven by a desire for high‐quality education–is not only displacing previous lower‐class residents, but also replacing earlier jiaoyufiers with newcomers, turning formerly blue‐collar neighbourhoods into white‐collar ones. New middle‐class communities are emerging as spatially limited school catchment zones attract social groups who occupy these spaces in an attempt to facilitate social mobility or consolidate social status, causing tension between them. Consequently, jiaoyufication has narrowed down opportunities for intergenerational social mobility and exacerbated social polarization, gradually replacing traditional social hierarchies with intergenerational neoliberal stratification.     

Family income and children's education: Using the Norwegian oil boom as a natural experiment

Parental income is positively correlated with children's educational attainment. This paper addresses the causality of this observed link. We have a unique data set for Norwegians born in the period 1967–1969, with a measure of permanent family income in the children's adolescence. This enables us to examine the long-term effect of family income on children's educational attainment. The Norwegian oil shock in the 1970s is used as an instrument, because this – in some regions but not in others – implied a general increase in income unrelated to parents' abilities. This variation in income is used to estimate the causal effect of family income on children's educational attainment. We find no such causal relationship. This result is robust with respect to different specification tests.     

Modelling mobility: the use of simulation to choose between near-equivalent models

The application of the log-linear model to frequency counts has rekindled interest in the traditional social mobility table. This recent literature is to a degree divided over several issues, including how to develop an acceptable model of mobility flows and how to choose between near-equivalent models which generate almost identical fitted counts but have different substantive implications. In reviewing some of these issues, we draw upon Goldthorpe's development of Hauser's “levels” model and present a general mobility model which, we argue on theoretical grounds, should be broadly applicable to modern industrial societies. We develop the model using Australian data, extend it to British and American mobility data, and use Monte Carlo methods to choose between alternative models. In developing our substantive interpretations of different models, we illustrate models that underfit, overfit, and adequately fit the observed mobility flows.     

Income distribution and well‐being: what can we learn from subjective data?

Abstract. How does the income of others affect my own welfare? This survey of the empirical literature stresses the contribution of subjective data to the understanding of this issue, with an attempt to disentangle direct effects (preference interdependence) from indirect informational effects. It shows that perceived mobility is central to the link between other people's income and individual satisfaction, as it determines individual opportunities and risks. Agents also appreciate the egalitarian nature of mobility itself, so that individual welfare depends on dynamic inequality rather than static income distribution. These studies illustrate how subjective data can bring information on aspects of utility and social interactions that are beyond the scope of the method based on action‐revealed preferences.     

Intergenerational mobility: New evidence from consumption data

The intergenerational persistence of consumption describes the extent to which children inherit the living standards of their parents. Evidence on this parameter is scarce due to limited data on the joint consumption of parents and children. This paper identifies parents who participated in the Danish Expenditure Survey, links them to their children through population‐wide Danish registries, and estimates the intergenerational elasticity of consumption in Denmark. The results suggest that, consistent with intergenerational consumption smoothing, the persistence of consumption across generations is higher than the persistence of earnings and income.     

收入流动性对收入不平等的影响

虽然收入流动性在收入分配研究领域正在逐渐升温,但收入流动性对收入不平等的影响这一关键问题的研究不足。文章推导了Gini系数在绝对收入流动性矩阵中对应的表达式,分析了收入流动性矩阵对不平等程度的作用途径。并利用1998年-2002年的收入面板数据验证了该理论分析。实证分析表明,由于向收入高低两端流动的力量增长较快并在势头上超过了同样增长的向中等收入水平流动的力量,整体的收入不平等程度恶化了。     

Stochastic monotonicity in intergenerational mobility tables

The aim of this paper is to test for stochastic monotonicity in intergenerational socio‐economic mobility tables. In other words, we question whether having a parent from a high socio‐economic status is never worse than having one with a lower status. Using existing inferential procedures for testing unconditional stochastic monotonicity, we first test a set of 149 intergenerational mobility tables in 35 different countries and find that monotonicity cannot be rejected in hardly any table. In addition, we propose new testing procedures for testing conditional stochastic monotonicity and investigate whether monotonicity still holds after conditioning on a number of covariates such as education, cognitive and non‐cognitive skills. Based on the NCDS cohort data from the UK, our results provide evidence that monotonicity holds, even conditionally. Moreover, we do not find large differences in our results when comparing social class and wage class mobility. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Generational Dimensions of Neoliberal and Post‐Fordist Restructuring: The Changing Characteristics of Young Adults and Growing Income Inequality in Montreal and Vancouver

There is growing concern over income inequality and its generational dimensions. Post‐Fordist and neoliberal restructuring have reshaped urban labour markets, resulting in growing inequalities that disproportionately afflict younger workers. This article empirically analyses the transition as experienced in Montreal and Vancouver, two Canadian cities that have undergone restructuring in different ways. The study of young adults' changing incomes reveals growing intra‐ and inter‐cohort inequality, and an increasing intergenerational income gap in both cities. Income inequality is greater in Vancouver, with its more pronounced post‐Fordist labour force composition and neoliberalized governance context. Known factors such as occupation and gender affect the earnings structure, but educational attainment has increased the most in terms of its effect on incomes. Inequalities among young adults are expected to magnify in the future due to unevenness in educational attainment. Urban research ought to pay close attention to the role of education in structuring inequalities, and the ways the impact of restructuring is unevenly distributed across generations.