Can child care policy encourage employment and fertility?: Evidence from a structural model

We develop a structural model of female employment and fertility which accounts for intertemporal feedback effects between these two outcomes. To identify the effect of financial incentives on employment and fertility we exploit variation in the tax and transfer system, which differs by employment state and number of children. Specifically, we simulate in detail the effects of the tax and transfer system, including child care costs. The model provides estimates of the structural preferences of women that can be used to study the effect of various policy reforms. Results show that increasing child care subsidies, conditional on employment, increases the labor supply of all women as well as the fertility rates of the childless and highly educated women.     

Targeting fertility and female participation through the income tax

We evaluate the effect of a 2003 reform in the Spanish income tax on fertility and the employment of mothers with small children. The reform introduced a tax credit for working mothers with children under the age of three, while also increasing child deductions for all households with children. Theoretically, given the interplay of these two components, the expected effect of the reform is ambiguous on both outcomes. We find that the combined reforms significantly increased both fertility (by almost 5%) and the employment rate of mothers with children under three (by 2%). These effects were more pronounced among less-educated women. In addition, to disentangle the impact of the two reform components, we use an earlier reform that increased child deductions in 1999. We find that the child deductions affect mothers' employment negatively, which implies that the 2003 tax credit would have increased employment even more (up to 5%) in the absence of the change in child deductions.     

Analyzing female labor supply — Evidence from a Dutch tax reform

Among OECD countries, the Netherlands has an average female labor force participation, but by far the highest rate of part-time work. This paper investigates the extent to which married women respond to financial incentives. We exploit exogenous variation caused by a substantial Dutch tax reform in 2001. Our main conclusion is that the positive significant effect of the tax reform on labor force participation dominates the negative insignificant effect on working hours. The latter contradicts the common empirical finding of positive wage elasticities. Our preferred explanation is that women respond more to changes in tax allowances than to changes in marginal tax rates.     

Managing Discretionary Accruals and Book‐Tax Differences in Anticipation of Tax Rate Increases: Evidence from China

This paper investigates how firms manage their earnings to trade off various incentives when tax rates increase. We hypothesize and find that firms generally choose to manage their taxable income upward in a book‐tax non‐conforming manner rather than in a book‐tax conforming manner before a tax rate increment, which in turn reduces the detection risk of aggressive financial reporting. These results suggest that firms give more weight to tax incentives and tax audit or regulatory inspection risks than to boosting financial reporting income in tax management. However, when firms have higher book management incentives or lower tunneling incentives (i.e., non‐state‐owned enterprises), we find that they manage their taxable income and book income upward together (i.e., in a book‐tax conforming manner), whereas their counterparts (i.e., state‐owned enterprises) do not. Overall, our paper contributes to the literature by demonstrating the interplay of tax, tunneling and financial reporting incentives in influencing tax management strategies. The findings from our paper should also help government and regulators understand more about firms’ reactions to tax rate increases.     

The effect of disability pension incentives on early retirement decisions

I investigate the incentive effects of disability pensions on disability retirement entry as a special type of early retirement. The implicit tax rate on further work is included as a forward looking incentive measure. A substantial change of the disability pension legislation caused exogenous variation in disability benefits in Germany in 2001 and is used to obtain estimates of individual's responses to financial incentives. Benefit levels appear to have no effect on the labour market behaviour. At the same time, there is a sizable and significant disincentive effect of implicit taxes on labour market income, indicating that alleviating such disincentives would likely increase labour force participation. Since the response to financial incentives occurs mainly among those in good health, such a policy might on the other hand imperil the aim of providing insurance against a health‐induced loss of one's working capacity.     

Write-offs and Profitability in Private Firms: Disentangling the Impact of Tax-Minimisation Incentives

Private firms are likely to use the financial reporting process more for other objectives, such as tax savings, than for communicating performance. However, observing firms choosing accounting policies for tax-minimisation purposes is not straightforward due to (i) tax and non-tax costs of reporting lower income (ii) accounting policies that result in lower reported income and no tax savings but generate non-tax benefits (iii) preparers' multiple incentives and (iv) econometric issues. We observe a large sample of 20,505 private firms writing off assets in two separate regimes, one that generates tax savings and one that does not. Firms significantly decrease, but continue to use, write-offs after the adverse change in tax treatment of write-offs. The exogenous tax change should not affect other reporting incentives. This allows us to disentangle the tax-minimisation incentive from other (un-observable) incentives, including debt contracting, dividends and employee relations that contribute to the observed anomalous positive relationship between write-offs and profitability. We show that for private firms (i) obtaining tax savings is important overall (ii) non-tax costs and benefits are probably also important and (iii) earnings informativeness for future cash flows increases after the adverse tax legislation change.     

基层税务人员激励中所产生的偏差问题分析

基层税务人员作为税收法规的具体实施者以及税收收入的主要承担者,其工作积极性的高低直接影响着国家的财政状况,因此对其激励就非常重要。本文从激励偏差的角度分析了影响基层税务人员激励偏差产生的原因,并提出了相应的解决策略。     

Are fiscal policy incentives effective in stimulating firms' eco-product innovation? The moderating role of dynamic capabilities

This study investigates the effectiveness of fiscal policy incentives—in particular, direct subsidies and tax credits—in stimulating eco-product innovation among Chinese manufacturing firms. We also examine the moderating effects of dynamic capabilities. The empirical results, which are based on survey data from 265 firms in China, demonstrate that both direct subsidies and tax credits are conducive to firms' eco-product innovation. In addition, we find that when firms' dynamic integration capabilities are strong, the facilitating effects of direct subsidies and tax credits on eco-product innovation are likewise strong. Moreover, dynamic reconfiguration capabilities positively moderate the relationship between tax credits and eco-product innovation. By identifying moderators that influence the effect of fiscal incentives on eco-product innovation in heterogeneous firms, this study contributes to fiscal policy debates and realizing sustainable development.     

The effects of public support schemes on small and medium enterprises

In this paper we will investigate the effects of direct grants and tax incentives on recipient small and medium enterprises (SMEs). Direct grants and tax incentives are two different public instruments used to correct market failure and facilitate innovation through lowering the cost of R&D. Although large and small firms innovate in different ways, so far limited empirical evidence has been reported with respect to the effectiveness of public R&D instruments for SMEs. Our data suggests that direct subsidies used alone or with tax incentives strengthen the R&D orientation of the SME as well as some aspects of innovation output and absorptive capacity. Although the effects of policy measures are significant when comparison is made to firms that did not use any of the two instruments, not much difference is found when users of direct grants are compared to those who used both the grants and the tax incentives. This result indicates the existence of limitations in the use of tax incentives by SMEs, and thus suggests that subsidies may be the primary instrument in SMEs.     

Formula Apportionment: Factor Allocation and Tax Avoidance

This paper addresses the question of how firms react to tax incentives in a formula apportionment (FA) tax regime. Under FA, the profits of all consolidated entities of a business group are summed and then allocated according to a formula based on FA factors. We hypothesize that firms may change the allocation of real production factors and/or manipulate the FA factor through tax avoidance strategies. Analyzing FA tax effects of the German local business tax with payroll expense as the exclusive FA factor, we find empirical evidence consistent with both hypotheses. Regarding the allocation of production factors, we observe significant tax effects on labor input at the intensive margin but not on labor input at the extensive margin. In addition, we find evidence of an indirect FA spillover effect on capital investment. Our findings on tax avoidance proxies are consistent with tax-induced manipulations of payroll expense as an FA factor to save tax payments.     

REPETITION AND FINANCIAL INCENTIVES IN ECONOMICS EXPERIMENTS

Abstract While experimental methods have been an effective tool for economic research, there have been controversies on the methodological aspects. The reason why we need to care about it is clear: if the method in an experiment is not valid, the results from that experiment cannot be valid too. Among other things, the methodological issues of financial incentives and repetition, which are norms in experimental economics, have been at the centre of many debates. While there are previous reviews that investigate financial incentives and repetition separately, our view is that the effects of these two factors are interdependent rather than independent. Thus, our review here is more specific and more conditional, that is, we are interested in the answer to the question, ‘Do we need to use financial incentives conditional on the use of repetition?’ After we discuss the relationship between financial incentives and repetition, we argue, from a review of 44 experimental studies, that using financial incentives would be more necessary to improve the validity of experimental results if an experimenter needs to use repetition.     

乡镇企业税收负担、利润水平与农民非农就业——基于协整分析方法

利用1978年至2009年的乡镇企业有关数据,采用协整检验方法、误差修正模型和Granger因果关系检验方法,对乡镇企业税收负担、利润水平与农民非农就业三者之间的相互关系进行实证研究,结果表明:三者之间存在显著的长期均衡关系;安置就业和税收负担在短期内影响企业盈利情况;安置就业与企业盈利在长期内互为Granger因果关系.因此,国家应综合采取税收优惠、金融支持与政府培训等政策,以提高乡镇企业盈利水平和扩大农民非农就业.     

Does Productivity Decline After Promotion? The Case of French Academia*

The present research examined the effect of promotion decisions on ex‐post productivity in French academia. As, once promotion decisions are known, most external incentives vanish for promoted candidates, their productivity was expected to decrease. This hypothesis was tested by using an original dataset and matching methods to evaluate the impact of promotion on publication scores. The robustness of the matching estimates was tested using sensitivity analysis. The results clearly show that the removal of extrinsic incentives following promotion does not lead to a fall in productivity in French academia.     

Mobile Labor, Multiple Tax Instruments, and Tax Competition

The tax competition literature shows that local governments keep property tax rates inefficiently low to prevent capital outflows, thereby underproviding local public goods. This paper adds mobile labor and an alternative tax instrument to the model. Jurisdictions have access to a property tax levied on land and capital, plus either a head tax or a labor tax. Scale economies in public good provision create incentives to use the property tax, but these incentives are not accompanied by increased incentives to underprovide public goods. In contrast, underprovision is associated with the use of a distortionary labor tax.     

Transaction taxes, greed and risk aversion in an agent-based financial market model

Recent agent-based financial market models came to the result that taxing financial transactions does not per se increase financial stability and that the response of volatility and misalignments to rising tax rates seem to be u-shaped. Moreover, greed and the risk appetite of traders are often blamed for financial instability and there is no evidence how greed and risk aversion affect the effectiveness of regulations in financial markets. We aim to add to this gap in the literature by analyzing how the effectiveness of transaction taxes depend on different behavioral patterns within an agent-based framework. Our simulations indicate that a tax rate of 0.1% demarcates the stabilizing tax regime from the destabilizing one. We figure out that transaction taxes are less effective, either when chartists trade more aggressively, fundamentalists trade less aggressively, agents switch more frequently between trading strategies or only have short memory in their fitness measures. Lower risk aversion of agents, however, makes higher tax rates more effective as indicated by a flatter volatility response curve. We conclude that additional regulations should concentrate on the traders’ responsibilities for their risk-exposure.     

The impact of incentives on the accuracy of subjects in judgmental forecasting experiments

There is an ongoing debate in the social sciences about whether or not financial incentives are needed in order to obtain good performance from experimental subjects. This debate often extends into the research on judgmental forecasting. Thus, an experiment was conducted to assess the effects of financial incentives on time series forecasting accuracy. There was no evidence that financial incentives impacted forecasting accuracy in stable time series. Financial incentives also had no impact immediately after instabilities occurred and no impact once the trend in the data had fully emerged.     

Dragon Children: Identifying the Causal Effect of the First Child on Female Labour Supply with the Chinese Lunar Calendar*

Instrumental variables (IV) estimates of the effect of fertility on female labour supply have only been able to identify the causal effect of second and higher parity children. This study uses exogenous variation in fertility caused by the Chinese lunar calendar to identify the effect of the first child. Additionally, weighting formulas are presented to interpret IV estimates as weighted average treatment effects in the case of multiple endogenous variables, which are useful when children vary in intensity by both number and age. The effect of the first child is found to be much greater than that of other children.     

Behavioral approaches to optimal FDI incentives

Countries attempt to attract foreign investors by offering them a set of incentives. The most common types of foreign direct investment incentives are grants and tax relief. Although the amount of the grant is independent of future situations, the value of a tax relief depends on future profits. Our study used the behavioral approach to test experimentally the preferences of managers regarding the desired types of incentives under various conditions. We found, ‘Regret Effect’, ‘Statues Quo Bias’, and ‘Insurance Effect’ in subjects' decision making. A country can improve the incentives it offers by considering the various behavioral biases of the companies' managers. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Child Exemptions or Child Allowances

A bstract Eliminating Child exempitons and replacing them with a European style child allowance program would be an effective and costless antipoverty policy The distributional and poverty reducing effects of three potentral child allowance programs are examined These include a fixed dollar tax credit a dollar tax credit a tax credit that declines with income, and a taxable allowance of the some dollar amount for each child     

The timing of retirement — New evidence from Swiss female workers

We investigate the responsiveness of individual retirement decisions to changes in financial incentives. A reform increased women's normal retirement age (NRA) in two steps from age 62 to age 63 first and then to age 64. At the same time retirement at the previous NRA became possible at a benefit discount. Since the reform affected specific birth cohorts we can identify causal effects. We find strong and robust behavioral effects of changes in financial retirement incentives. A permanent reduction of retirement benefits by 3.4% induces a decline in the age-specific annual retirement probability by over 50%. The response to changes in financial retirement benefits varies with educational background: those with low education respond most strongly to an increase in the price of leisure.