Ways of regulating migration processes in the Russian Federation

This paper presents ways of regulating migration processes in the Russian Federation. Migrations discussed include international, domestic, and migrations among regions. It was proposed that a conceptual model for the state migration policy of Russia for the medium and long term should be developed to project main goals, tasks, and priorities of migration policy. Secondly, there is a need to elaborate the conceptual model of the distribution of productive forces of Russia under the market economy conditions for the long term, and its connection with migration policy. Thirdly, the system of macroeconomic regulation of the processes of migration should be a general model for the settlement of the inhabitants of the Russian Federation. Furthermore, the Russian society should guard itself against the negative social consequences of illegal migration. Illegal entry of foreigners and labor migration is considered to be the principal problems of migration in Russia. Finally, Russia should focus on the redistribution of its population in such a way that it will gain the maximum benefit.     

Inter-regional Population Migration in Russia: Using an Origin-to-Destination Matrix

This study examines regional economic conditions and their effects on inter-regional population redistribution patterns in Russia. After reviewing striking changes in population flows before and after the collapse of the former Soviet Union, an application of the gravity model to population migration in Russia in 2003 is presented using a newly obtained inter-regional in- and out-migration flow matrix supplied by Rosstat (formerly Goskomstat). Gross migration patterns since the year 2000, when large transformational population flows ceased, have not been investigated so far in the existing literature. The analysis conducted focuses on geographical factors, which have been basically omitted in existing literature on migration patterns in post-Soviet Russia, and the attractiveness of Moscow and surrounding regions and resource-mining areas is clearly presented.     

Can Russia Resettle the Far East?

Russian scholars, politicians and media have been alarmed by the declining population of the Far East, seeing it as a step towards eventual takeover of the region by China. This article shows that the progressive depopulation of the Far East is a reality and will continue in the coming decades. In addition to natural decline, the Far Eastern population will shrink faster than that of Russia because of net outmigration. Economic stagnation will keep migration from the South of the region at its present low rates. Recovery will increase mobility and allow the present deferred migrants to leave for European Russia. In the unlikely event that the Far East outperforms the rest of the country economically, it will attract migrants. However, any inflow is likely to be small because of the shrinking populations in European Russia and other ex-Soviet republics, and the competition for migrants from other parts of the world.     

Trade and the Recognition of Commercial Lingua Francas: Russian Language Laws in Post‐Soviet Countries

Trade has the potential to influence a wide range of political and social outcomes. Using the post‐Soviet context, we examine how language policies – vital components for how minorities are treated with far‐reaching economic consequences – are influenced by trade. We argue that while ethnic politics and colonial legacies are both important in shaping language laws, it is important to recognize that the Russian language remains a significant commercial lingua franca in the region. When economic exchanges between Russia and other post‐Soviet republics are frequent, governments are more likely to adopt pro‐Russian language laws as a practicality and to maintain favor with the Russian government and Russian‐speaking businesses. Using an original dataset covering all Russian language‐related laws in the former Soviet states from 1992 to 2009, we find a significant and positive relationship between trade and pro‐Russian language laws. These results are robust even when we (1) instrument for Russian import levels and (2) consider the Baltic effect, spillovers from cultural affinity, and the uniqueness of fuel exports.     

Determinants of interregional mobility in Russia

The paper studies the determinants of internal migration in Russia. Using panel data on gross region‐to‐region migration flows in 1992–99, we estimate the effect of economic, political and social factors. Although overall migration is rather low, it turns out that its intensity does depend on economic factors even controlling for fixed effects for each origin–destination pair. People move from poorer and job scarce regions with worse public good provision to those which are richer and prospering better both in terms of employment prospects and public goods. Migration is, however, constrained by the lack of liquidity; for the poorest regions, an increase in income raises rather than decreases outmigration. Our estimates imply that up to a third of Russian regions are locked in poverty traps.     

Russian language skills and employment in the Former Soviet Union

During the Soviet era, proficiency in the Russian language was often a ticket to attractive employment opportunities in the member republics. Does it still contribute to securing employment in the former Soviet republics after two decades of transition? Using data from Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia in the years 2008–2010, this paper demonstrates that Russian language skills remain economically valuable. The baseline estimates suggest that Russian language skills increase probability of employment by about 6 (males) and 9 (females) percentage points. Our results bear important implications for the ongoing debates on language policies in the post‐Soviet countries.     

What determines public education expenditures in Russia?1

Recent studies suggest that the allocation of expenditures in education is important for growth. The state of public education spending in many transition economies highlights the need for an assessment of the nature of education expenditures in these countries. This paper attempts to fill this gap in the literature by estimating the determinants of education expenditures in the Russian Federation. Results from panel data analysis show that revenue and the student‐population ratio have a positive impact on education expenditures while the effect of population density is negative. Three regional variables also show significant impact. The income and price elasticity of public education expenditures are estimated to be 0.57 and ?0.18, respectively, a result comparable to studies from other countries. The results presented here provide insight into how fiscal institutions and the structure of the political process in Russia may affect the degree of resource allocation in the educational sector during the transition process.     

Rural labour market policies in Croatia,FYR of Macedonia and Turkey

Considerable differences are found among countries regarding the importance of the agricultural labour force, between rural and urban labour, and in poverty and living conditions in rural areas. Declines in the agricultural labour force and rural population are foreseen for each of the countries, but with significant variations between them. Showing different patterns over time, labour market developments in the sector and in rural areas have been shaped by the overall labour market institutions, conditions and factors in each country, such as the legal basis, educational attainment and migration flows, and the presence of non-agricultural activities in rural areas.     

The governance mechanism of Russian firms: its self-enforcing nature and limitations

The legal form of business enterprises in contemporary Russia is diversified to almost the same extent as those in major advanced countries. Joint-stock companies are now the most common form of incorporation among leading industrial enterprises. The law on joint-stock companies in Russia provides for the governance mechanism of joint-stock companies, in order to implement the concept of a ‘self-enforcing’ organisation in which the legal code of business management should be observed voluntarily by managers and large stockholders. This fundamental idea is embodied in many aspects of the current system, including the mechanism of management and supervision characterised as ‘diarchial leadership’, the balance of power between stockholders and corporate officers, and the internal audit system. However, the self-enforcing nature of the Russian enterprise has been undermined by a number of factors, including the overwhelming expansion of closed joint-stock companies, the predominance of insider ownership, the short history of internal auditing and the lack of legal enforcement power. As a result, breaches of company law are rampant in Russia today. This raises serious problems for the Russian corporate system, along with the legal peculiarity of privatised firms and people's enterprises, which complicates the system of joint-stock companies and deprives it of transparency.     

Women and the social economy in transitional Russia

The present article analyses the role of the social economy in transitional Russia and its consequences for women. The changes in the economic system in the former Soviet Union and its effects is often analysed in general terms. One interesting aspect is whether the changes have similar effects on men and women. The aim here is to highlight how women's situation changes when the economic system changes and how Russian women adapt to these changes. Three types of activities which are carried out by women within the social economy are discussed below, where each of these activities are built on strategies for survival from the Soviet period: distribution of vital goods in rural areas, distribution of information to women and production of services. Although the social economy has a considerable gap to fill in Russia, this has not yet implied that the cooperative sector flourishes. Instead there is a danger that women go from paid work in the state sector to non-paid work within the voluntary sector.     

The 2014–15 Financial Crisis in Russia and the Foundations of Weak Monetary Power Autonomy in the International Political Economy

ABSTRACT

This article contributes to international political economy debates about the monetary power autonomy (MPA) of emerging market and developing countries (EMDs). The 2014–15 Russian financial crisis is used as a case study to explore why an accumulation of large international reserves does not provide protection against currency crises and macroeconomic adjustments in EMDs. The analysis centres on the interplay between two dimensions of MPA: the Power to Delay and the Power to Deflect adjustment costs. Two structural factors condition Russia’s low MPA. First, the country’s subordinated integration in global financial markets increases its financial vulnerability. The composition of external assets and liabilities, combined with cross-border capital flows, restrict the use of international reserves to delay currency crises. Second, the choice of a particular macroeconomic policy regime embraced the financialisation of the – mainly state-owned – Russian banking sector, thus making it difficult to transform liquidity inflows into credits for enterprises. Russia’s main comparative advantage, hydrocarbon export revenues, is not exploited. The type of economy created due to the post-Communist transition means that provided ‘excessive’ liquidity remains in the financial system and is channelled into currency arbitrage. This factor increases exchange rate vulnerability and undermines Russia’s MPA.     

Export and import composition as determinants of bilateral trade in goods: evidence from Russia

Conventional theory and several empirical studies state that incomes and exchange rates are the key determinants of the trade balance. Here, we argue that export and import composition are also key explanatory variables because some goods are inelastic and/or with a high added value, directly and indirectly affecting income and price elasticities and trade balance. Thus, if exports and/or imports significantly consist of price inelastic products, then, a positive and a negative effect, respectively, should be expected on the trade balance. Using bilateral trade data and dynamic panel models, we found that the ratio of exports of crude petroleum and natural gas (price inelastic goods) to total exports is significantly and positively associated with the Russian trade balance in goods. For its part, Russian imports of high-tech goods (income elastic and price inelastic with a high added value) show a negative association. The goods balance of Russia also responded to changes in relative income, but there is only weak evidence of reactions to changes in the exchange rate. These findings partially explain the persistent surplus in the Russian trade balance and current account.     

Disintegration and Trade

The gravity model is used to assess the impact of disintegration on trade among the former constituent republics of three demised federations in central and eastern Europe: the Soviet Union, Yugoslavia, and Czechoslovakia. The authors find evidence of a very strong home bias around the time of disintegration, with trade exceeding normal trade intensity 24‐fold (for Slovenia and Croatia) to 43‐fold (the former Soviet Union and Czechoslovakia). Disintegration was followed by a sharp fall in trade intensity, although the legacy of a common past remains strong. By 1998, trade relations still exceeded the normal level 2‐fold in the case of Slovenia and Croatia, 7‐fold for the former Czechoslovakia, 13‐fold for the Baltics, and 30‐fold for Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine. Such trade intensities surpass the effects of formal preferential trade areas such as the EU or the impact of reunification on trade between East and West Germany.     

Between the hammer and the anvil: The impact of economic sanctions and oil prices on Russia’s ruble

Exchange rate fluctuations strongly affect the Russian economy, given its heavy dependence on foreign trade and investment. In the aftermath of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine that broke out early 2014, the Russian ruble lost 50% of its value against the US dollar. The impact of the conflict on Russia may have been amplified by sanctions imposed by Western countries. However, as Russia is heavily dependent on natural resource exports, another factor behind the deterioration could be the sharp decline in oil prices starting in summer 2014. Using high-frequency data on nominal exchange and interest rates, oil prices, actual and unanticipated sanctions, we provide evidence on forces underlying the ruble exchange rate. The analysis is based on cointegrated VAR models, where fundamental long-run relationships are implicitly embedded. The results indicate that the bulk of the depreciation can be related to the decline of oil prices. In addition, unanticipated sanctions matter for the conditional volatility of the variables involved.     

俄罗斯国家身份转变及其对中俄关系的影响

国家身份是影响俄罗斯对外战略和中俄关系的重要因素。俄罗斯在国际社会的互动中，逐渐调整其国家身份：由世界性大国转变为地区性大国，由西方国家调整为欧亚国家。转变后的俄罗斯国家身份与中国的国家身份比较接近，这对中俄关系产生重大影响，使两国关系不断密切并走上良性发展的轨道。     

Balance of payments accounting and exchange rate dynamics

The balance of payments is an accounting identity. Many wonder how the current and capital accounts, which add up to zero, can influence exchange rates. This paper shows how payment flows arising from balance of payments imbalances affect the demands for different currencies in the foreign exchange market over time. Based on a dynamical system approach, the paper demonstrates how international payments evolve depending on the joint dynamic behaviour of different balance of payments components. It finds that international payments and exchange rates interact in fundamentally different ways depending on whether a country restricts its capital inflows and outflows, whether capital flows are accommodating or autonomous and whether the exchange rate is fixed, flexible or, say, governed by a crawling peg. Empirical evidence from major industrial countries as well as from countries hit by currency crises support the paper's theoretical predictions.     

绵阳市流动人口迁移规律

Based on the overall anatysis of the floating population among big and medium-sized cities in China, this paper, by means of statistics and questionnaires, makes a systematical study on the migratory features of the floating population in Mianyang, its employment structure, migrating causes and channels, According to the findings, the author finds a fact that with the strategy of Western Development, and with the construction of science and technology city of Mianyang, the migrating in Mianyang conforms to the general patterns of themigration, which has happened in those big and medium-sized cities in China. In addition, the city has a new but unique feature - economic factor, as the driving force of popufation migration, is quite distinct from that of those cities in eastern areas of China.     

The role of family decision in internal migration: the case of India

This paper analyzes the effects of family decisions and individual decisions on rural-urban migration in India under 2 different rural institutions--family farm and wage labor systems. An analytical framework for explaining family migration decisions reveals that whenever a member of the extended family migrates, he gives up his share in the produce of the family farm. When this happens, the number of adult members on the farm goes down and the total product is affected. 3 case studies of Indian villages are analyzed for this study. 2 empirical relations are examined: 1) if individual migration decisions are predominant, and 2) if family decisions are important in determining the overall flow of migration. Relationships between migration decisions and other variables, such as: 1) number of males in urban areas; 2) urban wages; 3) daily wage rate; 4) average agricultural income; 5) railway distance between rural and urban areas; 6) size of the labor market in destination region; 7) probability that a migrant arriving in an urban area will find a job; and 8) comsumption expenditure, in urban areas estimated by working class consumer price index, are determined. Results show that: 1) the market determined wage variable does not play a very significant role in migration decisions; 2) distance is one of the most important variables in analyzing migration; and 3) the aggregate flow of migration is affected if migration decisions are predominantly family decisions. These findings have relevant policy implications for less developed countries (LDCs), especially because large flows of rural-urban migration in recent years have forced governments to adopt policies for controlling the flows to reduce the burden of unemployment in the urban areas. Government policies affecting rural institutions will have an impact on migration flow; those that lead to a reduction of uncertainty in agriculture will affect average per-capita consumption levels in family farms and hence influence the flow of migration.     

俄罗斯新一期《国家科技发展计划》特点分析

2019年3月,俄罗斯政府发布《2019—2030年国家科技发展计划》,这是俄罗斯历史上出台的第二个科技发展中长期规划,旨在实现普京第四任期提出的重返世界五大科研强国的目标。整体来看,该计划主要呈现四大特点:大幅增加科技发展相关投入;人力资源培养成为第一要务;高度重视基础研究发展;强调打通从基础研究到技术开发再到产品及服务商业化的整个创新链条。     

Measuring internal trade distances: a new method applied to estimate provincial border effects in Canada

In this paper we suggest an improved methodology for comparing the intensity of trade across and within national and provincial boundaries. Earlier efforts to assess border effects for provinces or for countries without internal trade statistics made fairly arbitrary assumptions about average distances for internal trade flows. We improve on earlier efforts by taking more complete account of the distribution of population within each province or country. Internal distance is estimated as a population-weighted average of intra-city and intercity distances as well as distances to and within rural areas. We find higher estimates of internal distances, and hence border effects, than found in previous studies.