Possibility of a Middle Income Trap in China： Assessment in Terms of the Literature on Innovation,Big Business and Inequality

This paper discusses the possibility of China falling into the so-called middle income trap in terms of three checkpoints： innovation capability, world-class big businesses, and inequality. Based on these criteria, our conclusions are as follows： First, China has increasingly become innovative and thus differs from other middle income countries. Second, China has many successful big businesses, a number disproportionate to its size. Thus, China differs from other middle income countries with few world-class big businesses, and the only qualification is that those big businesses are mostly non- manufacturing firms focused on such areas as finance, energy, and trading. Third, China faces great uncertainty in terms of inequality. Although several signs show that the Kuznets curve will come to represent China, as noted by the gradual reduction of surplus labor and rising wage rates starting in the coastal provinces, the Chinese are now facing new sources of inequality in China, such as wealth （including financial and real estate assets） and non-economic factors （including corruption）.     

Vulnerability assessment of water resources to climate change in Chinese cities

Climate change is an inevitable trend,which challenges security of water resources in China,especially in cities.Assessing vulnerability of water resource to climate change in cities has important role for policy makers. The paper constructs a vulnerability function,including exposure,sensitivity and adaptive capacity,according to the vulnerability concept proposed by IPCC,establishes an assessment indicators system of water resources to climate change in cities,and analyzes vulnerability features of Chinese cites based on 655 cities＇data in 2006.The vulnerability assessment results show that there are distinctive differences among all the cities,between east,central and west cities,between ordinary,big and mega cities,while there is no statistical significant difference between north and south cities.Based on the research,the paper suggests that strategic emphasis should focus on the central cities and ordinary cities     

Lagging behind and Catching up in Process of Urbanization of Megacities ——Taking Nanjing City as an Example

The mumber of China＇s cities is increasing and the scale of cities is expanding. Urbanization of big cities is much more surprising and some have entered later stage of urbanization. In 2012 urbanization rate of Nanjing city reached 80.23%, but in its urbanization, there exist unbalance betweem industrializtion and urbanization, land＇s urbanization and urbanization of population, ecological environment and urbanization, infrastructure and urbanization and so on. Nanjing city must eliminate its negative influence and take urbanization as a driving force for economic development.     

The Developing Thought of “Tourist Agriculture” in Suburb of Mianyang——Lessons from Taiwan Province of China

Tourist agriculture, based on agriculture, is a new cross combination of agriculture and tourism from 1970s. It has appeared some original features by now, and we should use the successful experience of the tourist agriculture in Taiwan of China for reference to standardize all the aspects of work. Support it more in policy, fund,technology, and propaganda, and strengthen the combination of the program of city and suburb to promote the development of the tourist agriculture in Mianyang.     

The role of new ICTs in the sustainable development of industrial cluster： a case study of Yangxunqiao textile cluster

The wide application of new information and communication technologies （ICTs） has been argued to be critical in local economic development, while the application of new ICTs will affect the development of industrial cluster, especially those small and medium-sized enterprises （SMEs）. This paper examines Yangxunqiao textile cluster located in Zhejiang Province as a case study to focus on the role of ICTs in the sustainable development. We argue ICTs application in firms boost flexible and customized production approach, improve e-commerce market channel and raise supply chain management. We also pay special attention to the spatial implication of ICTs adoption in industrial cluster, and suggest that application of ICTs tend to lead to further clustering of SMEs in the location with mature production chain. Our analysis shows that new ICTs are a facilitator in the sustainable development of the industrial cluster.     

Which Type of Urbanization Better Matches China＇s Factor Endowment： A Comparison of Population-Intensive Old Puxi and Land-Capital-Intensive New Pudong

Based on a comparative study of New-Pudong （East Shanghai） and Old-Puxi （West Shanghai） in their respective ability to absorb rural migrants, the very essence of urbanization, this paper finds that, constrained by the current hukou （household registration） system and land tenure system, although New-Pudong has emerged as one of the most modernized urban areas in the world, it did so under an urbanization model that is government-dominant and characterized by high land-intensity and capital-intensity. This model represents a serious mismatch in terms of China＇s factor endowment that is characterized with a large but relatively poor rural population. In sharp contrast, guided by the market mechanism under private land ownership and free migration, Old-Puxi emerged as an urbanization model that was very adaptable to China＇s factor endowment and stage of development. Therefore, as a model of endogenous urbanization, Old-Puxi is more efficient and inclusive, at the same time more sustainable economically and environmentally, and for this reason more applicable to China at a time when China needs to urbanize most of its rural population urgently to avoid the further worsening of the rural/urban divide and income disparity.     

Coalition Emergency Response System, City Security and City Sustainable Development

The relations among the establishment of Coalition Emergency Response System （CERS）, city security and city sustainable development are analyzed in the article. According to the relation analysis, it is concluded that cities should build up their CERS to deal with the thread of damage in China. The recommendations about the establishment of the system are also provided.     

New ideas on China＇s Foreign Trade Development Strategy

China has been a leader in export strategy since the reform and opening-up for trade. This has played a positive role in economic development, however, since stepping into a large country economy, entering the.WTO and the current development of economic globalization at a rapid rate, the leading export strategy has already been very difficult to adapt to the daily challenges in export because of the constant changes in domestic and international economic environment. In view of this, China should turn its strategy into one of dynamic comparative advantages with a global competitive strategy, in conformity with big country＇s economy in the economic background of globalization.     

Collaboration mechanism of intercity emergency rescue ecosystem

With the development of metropolitan regions and the appearance of urban agglomerations, cities have been more closely related. For the restricted emergency rescue resource in a single city, it has become more and more imminent for the demand of the intercity collaborative resistance to major accident, so as to improve the protection capacity of urban security. In order to find an effective intercity, emergency rescue collaborative system, this paper introduces the concept and analysis method of ecosystem theory into intercity emergency, rescue. Based on the analysis of the formation-process of emergency rescue individual, population and community： a throe-level intercity emergency rescue collaborative system is constructed according to the characteristics of dynamics and structure of intercity emergency rescue ecosystem then the collaboration mechanism of information, resource and process in the interceity emergency rescue ecosystem is also studied in this paper; so as to offer available strategy and method for the ecosystem theory applied to intercity, emergency rescue. Through the studies of intereity emergency rescue ecosystem. it illuminates that the proposed emergency system can not Only cope with the major accident more timely and effectively but also integrate the intercity information resources and emergency rescue resource and process optimization.     

Socio-economic influences of population density

While population density represents an important socio-economic parameter, its role is rarely studied in the economic literature （contrary to natural sciences）. Population density plays an important role in harvesting societies, i.e. those that depend on agriculture and natural resources. With the development of industry and services and emergence of urban areas, population density becomes less economically important unless we consider aspects related to pollution. There exists a phase transition between rural and urban area which makes population density less important in urban area contrary to rural. However, the economic influence of population density in harvesting societies is also not straight forward. Too high population density decreases the natural endowment per capita, but eases the development of infrastructure, leading to existence of an optimal population density for economic growth. It also influences the demand for a monopolistic product, where too little density can lead to non-survival of a monopoly. Emergence of ethnic communities is based on more cooperative behavior in the case of low cultural and physical distances. At the same time, higher probability of large projects （like infrastructure） leads to development of cooperative behavior in the society. Elaboration along these lines leads to the conclusion that population density positively correlates with individualistic （non-cooperative, non-altruistic） behavior, through less time spent in cooperative infrastructure projects and higher frequency of meetings between individuals that with some probability lead to non-cooperative games.     

梯次流动对流动人口居留意愿的影响

利用中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心2009年在北京朝阳区、广东东莞市和浙江诸暨市组织进行的流动人口调查数据,研究梯次流动对流动人口居留意愿的影响。地理梯次流动和职业梯次流动对流动人口的居留意愿有显著影响,地理梯次流动会弱化流动人口的长期居留意愿,而职业梯次流动会显著促进流动人口的长期居留意愿。     

房价对城市全要素生产率的影响机制研究——基于Tobit模型实证分析

基于2008—2016年全国35个大中型城市的面板数据,利用Tobit模型和投入导向型的数据包络分析(DEA)方法探究城市房屋销售价格对城市全要素生产率的影响。研究发现：在整体维度城市房价与城市生产率呈现先增加后减少的倒U型曲线,且城市的房价水平超过了“房住不炒”的最高临界值,房价上升的抑制效应显著。房价对于不同人口规模城市的生产率影响具有异质性,在人口规模达到特大城市时,房价与城市生产率呈现倒U型特征,人口规模达到超大城市后,房价与城市生产率倒U型特征消失。不同类型城市房价与城市生产率之间的倒U型关系和城市的异质性特征表明,我国大中型城市应进行房价的“一城一策”精细化调节,“房住不炒”的政策定位具有坚实理论依据和现实必然。     

大城市流动人口“带动迁移”特征分析—以上海市闵行区为例

20世纪90年代中期以来,伴随着流动人口大量涌入城市,被带动迁入的少年儿童和老人规模也日益增大,对流入地和流出地均产生一定的影响。借助问卷调查资料,以带动迁移主体为研究对象,在界定带动迁移率的基础上,从流动人口的年龄、来沪时间长短、受教育程度、从业状况、收入水平五个方面考察带动迁移行为发生概率及带动迁移能力,以期解析大城市带动迁移行为的一般特征。     

农村留守家庭的结构特征与区域差异——基于6省30县抽样调查数据的分析

我国快速城镇化进程中伴随着日益凸显的留守家庭问题,核心成员的迁出对家庭结构和功能产生影响,不同留守群体置于特定类型、特定区域,问题亦会有所不同。基于全国6省30县2378个农村家庭实地调研数据的分析,大量劳动力外出务工在农村地区形成了近半数的留守家庭及留守人口,留守老人、留守儿童、留守配偶三类弱势群体分别占留守人员总体的10-20%,以空巢家庭、单亲家庭和结构比较复杂的家庭为主要类型。作为区域差异的例证,四川省、江苏省、吉林省分别代表西部、东部和东北地区,倾向于形成三种独特的留守模式,其中西部省份留守家庭比例高,留守群体数量大,留守家庭问题更显突出。     

陇海—兰新—北疆铁路沿线城市紧凑度及其影响因素研究

根据紧凑城市的核心内涵,从空间紧凑、结构良好、效率较高三个维度构建了城市紧凑度测度指标体系,运用主成分分析计算了2009年陇海—兰新—北疆铁路沿线40个城市紧凑度的综合得分,并将其划分为紧凑、较紧凑、一般紧凑和不紧凑四种类型。除个别城市外,从总体上来看,沿线城市紧凑度水平按照特大城市、大城市、中等城市、小城市的顺序呈现依次降低的变化规律。通过多元线性逐步回归分析了城市紧凑度的主要影响因素,结果表明目前影响沿线城市紧凑度的主要因素首先是经济增长弹性,其次是人口密度、基础设施建设和城市形态紧凑度等;对于不同规模的城市,城市紧凑度的主要影响因素亦有差异。     

多中心城市的内生形成与政府政策的影响

用主流经济学的工具研究空间经济问题有两个难点,即对规模经济和不同地区不同生产、消费和价格体系难以模型化.本文的贡献之一是通过界定合成实物资本和产量的真实货币价值两个概念,赋予了柯-道生产函数新的内涵,使其可以直接比较厂商和工人在不同地区的收益,而不必考虑价格因素.在此基础上,本文考察了城市空间形态的内生演变及政府政策的影响,发现对中心城市的倾斜性投资政策阻碍了大城市向多中心城市的转变.     

Population and lifestyle trend changes in China: implications for environmental quality

Demographic changes have considerable impacts on a country’s long-term growth trajectory through the savings, consumption and labour market channels. Population changes, including ageing, migration and urbanization, as well as lifestyle shifts may affect growth for fast-growing countries like China. Rural population migrating to cities consumes more energy services and produces larger emissions since urban lifestyles are generally more energy- and carbon-intensive. Household structures also keep changing across the majority of Chinese cities. Migration and urbanization together drive China’s energy consumption, CO₂ emissions upwards and environmental quality downwards if the current trend continues over time. It is, thus, necessary for China to draw useful lessons from experiences in other countries by reconciling population development and environmental changes. This study provides insights into the challenge of environmental sustainability, resulting jointly from population and lifestyle changes in China over the period 1978–2012. The empirical analysis generates empirical findings documenting that population changes and consumption behavioural changes contributed significantly to increased carbon emissions over the last three decades. The modelling results are highly relevant for policymakers who seek to adopt new policies to mitigate lifestyle change-driven environmental challenges that China has to cope with in the foreseeable future.     

绵阳科技城的工业经济发展

绵阳是建设之中的中国西部科技城,研究绵阳工业经济发展有益于科技城建设。运用偏离—份额分析法对绵阳1999—2003年的30个工业行业的经济资料进行分析,结果表明:结构效果指数为1.3019,以电子及通信设备制造为主的工业结构特征突出,区域工业结构效果较为显著,增长效果指数为0.8288,区域工业经济的整体增长效果不理想,竞争力指数为0.6366,区域工业经济缺乏竞争优势。支柱工业的技术非前沿性、企业之间缺乏协作、片面追求工业结构多样化、大企业的产品结构多样化滞后和出口依存度较低是影响绵阳工业经济发展主要因素。最后讨论了绵阳科技城工业经济规模扩张和竞争力提升的建议。     

城市区域化与武汉城市空间布局

文章论述了城市区域化是目前中国经济发达地区大城市发展出现的特有现象,它有别于传统的城市—区域生成关系,也有别于传统的城市郊区化现象,是中国特定工业化和城市化背景下,应对资源短缺压力而产生的城市功能、人口、空间扩散方式,其经济、社会、空间特征决定了城市区域化是中国“大城市化”进程中特有现象。运用城市区域化相关理念,指导新时期武汉市城市区域化进程中城市空间结构的创新,提出了城市发展区概念,并在此基础上选择了中心城区———城市廊道———组群的多中心网络化空间结构模式。     

健康城镇化背景下的流动人口发展趋势与对策

我国当前的流动人口总量已达2.61亿,未来将望继续增加。流动人口构成中大部分为从农村流向城市的人口,他们的城镇化状态与发展趋势是我国推进健康城镇化、实现可持续发展所不可回避的课题。鉴于当前流动人口的城镇化转型尚存在许多突出问题或矛盾,针对源于农村的流动人口城镇化问题,分析这一社会群体的社会属性、城镇化特征和可能趋势,进而提出在健康城镇化的语境下流动人口的城镇化策略。