Resolving or managing uncertainties for carbon capture and storage: Lessons from historical analogues

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies are often highlighted as a crucial component of future low carbon energy systems in the UK and internationally. Whilst these technologies are now in the demonstration phase world-wide, they are still characterised by a range of technical, economic, policy, social and legal uncertainties. This paper applies a framework for the analysis of these uncertainties that was previously developed by the authors to a historical evidence base. This evidence base comprises nine case studies, each of which focuses on a technology that is partly analogous to CCS. The paper's analysis of these case studies examines the conditions under which the uncertainties concerned have been at least partly resolved, and what lessons can be drawn for CCS. The paper then uses the case study evidence to discuss linkages between the uncertainties in the analysis framework, and how these linkages differ from those that were originally expected. Finally, the paper draws conclusions for the methodological approach that has been used and for strategies to develop and deploy CCS technologies.     

碳排放约束下的发电技术选择——以PC发电和IGCC发电为例

以两种发电技术——PC发电和IGCC发电为例,研究了在碳排放约束下发电企业的技术选择问题。结果表明:当碳排放价格处于低位时,PC发电的投资价值仍优于IGCC发电;随着碳排放价格的提高,IGCC发电的投资价值将超过PC发电,因此投资PC发电极可能是短视的;当企业投资CCS技术后,投资IGCC发电可能使企业拥有氢能源转换期权,该期权能激励投资IGCC发电的企业更早投资CCS技术。最后,基于破坏性创新理论,进一步论证了投资PC发电可能是短视行为的原因。     

A conceptual framework for misfit technology commercialization

The emerging literature on outbound open innovation has highlighted innovation processes, which presuppose active outward technology transfer to increase firm profits. To contribute to this discourse, our paper goes beyond the emphasis on core-related technologies and knowledge that currently dominates the technology management literature and develops the novel concept of misfit technology. This concept captures technologies that are not aligned with a focal firm's current knowledge base and/or business model, but which may still be of great value to the firm if alternative commercialization options are considered. By developing a framework that acknowledges (1) Sources of misfit technology, (2) Environmental uncertainty, (3) Organizational slack, (4) Industry appropriability regime and (5) Technological complexity, we theorize on how different modes of commercialization relate to misfit technology commercialization success. The paper is conceptual and is presented with the purpose to spawn further research on this important topic, but simultaneously touches upon the issues of utmost relevance to R&D management practice.     

Managing technological and social uncertainties of innovation: The evolution of Brazilian energy and agriculture

This paper explores how technological, commercial and social uncertainties shaped the development of Brazilian biofuels. Technological innovation allowed the country to emerge as a global leader, but Brazil continues to struggle with major social uncertainties due to poverty and environmental concerns common in many emerging economies. Contemporary approaches to development within the innovation literature focus primarily on overcoming technological and commercial uncertainties, but only peripherally explore social uncertainties. To fill this void, we draw on Martin and Hall's framework for managing innovative uncertainties, which is based on Kuhn and Popper's approaches to the evolution and methodology of science, and extend it with Aldrich and Fiol's concept of cognitive versus socio-political legitimacy. Based on qualitative data collected in Brazil, we outline the evolution of automotive fuel ethanol and flex-fuel technology, the development of Brazilian soybean production, and castor for socially inclusive biodiesel production. We show how innovation solved some technological and commercial uncertainties and generated new opportunities, but also created additional social uncertainties that are now being addressed. Through this process, Brazil has acquired capabilities in alternative energy technologies and more sustainable agriculture, becoming an exemplar for other emerging economies. We conclude with implications for policy and industry.     

A coevolutionary framework for analysing a transition to a sustainable low carbon economy

This paper proposes a coevolutionary framework for analysing a transition to a sustainable low-carbon economy, based on the coevolution of ecosystems, technologies, institutions, business strategies and user practices, within a multi-level micro-meso-macro perspective. This builds on and develops previous coevolutionary analyses of long-term technological and industrial change, and recent renewed interest within ecological economics on coevolutionary approaches. Previous work has analysed how the coevolution of technologies and institutions has led to the lock-in of current high-carbon energy systems; and how the coevolution of physical and social technologies and business strategies has brought significant material and welfare benefits to the minority of the world's population living in industrialised countries. The coevolutionary framework proposed here may be used to undertake: (1) detailed empirical analyses at a micro-meso level of the challenges relating to the innovation and adoption of particularly low-carbon technologies; (2) as a framework for analysing the multi-level interaction of social and technological elements within potential transition pathways to a low carbon energy system; (3) to assess the implications for economic growth and prosperity of a transition to a low carbon economy; and (4) to assist in the development of more formal, multi-level evolutionary economic models.     

Technologies,preferences, and policies for a sustainable use of natural resources

We discuss eight contributions that combine the topics of sustainable natural resource use and economic dynamics. In the first part we consider enhanced oil recovery (EOR), carbon capture and storage (CCS), as well as innovations allowing for energy-efficiency improvements and renewable energy cost reductions. We discuss how to include these technologies and innovations in CGE models, how each of them has different effects on the timing of emissions and abatement and on total emissions, and how (first-best as well as second-best) complementary policies (in particular, emission taxes and innovation subsidies) differ across these technologies. In the second part we compare differences in intergenerational preferences towards resource conservation - altruistic preferences and concern for social status from relative consumption -and also found sharply contrasting effects across the alternative assumptions.     

Breaking the Fence: Can Patent Rights Deter Biomedical Innovation in 'Technology Followers'?

The impact of patent protection on biomedical innovation has been a controversial issue. Although a 'medical anti-commons' has been predicted as a result of a proliferation of patents on upstream technologies, evidence to test these concerns is only now emerging. However, most industrial surveys that shed light on this issue are mainly from developed countries, making it very difficult to predict the impact of patenting on biomedical innovation in developing and least developed countries. This paper develops a framework of analysis for the impact of patent rights on biomedical innovation in 'technology follower' developing countries. Based on the framework developed in the paper, empirical data collected in an industry-level survey of the Indian pharmaceutical industry between November 2004 and January 2005 is used to analyze the impact of patent rights as recognized under the Agreement on Trade Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS Agreement) on biomedical innovation in technology followers.     

Cutting costs of catching carbon—Intertemporal effects under imperfect climate policy

We use a two-period model to investigate intertemporal effects of cost reductions in climate change mitigation technologies for the power sector. The effect of cost reductions for CCS depends on how carbon taxes are set. If there is no carbon tax in period 1, but an optimally set carbon tax in period 2, a CCS cost reduction may reduce early emissions. Such an innovation may therefore be more desirable than comparable cost cuts related to renewable energy. The finding rests on the incentives fossil fuel owners face. If future profitability is reduced, they speed up extraction (the ‘green paradox’), and vice versa.     

人工智能技术对碳排放的影响

随着新一轮科技革命和产业变革的深入推进，人工智能技术在应对气候变化方面扮演重要角色，并赋能“碳达峰、碳中和”目标的实现。利用2006—2019年中国内地省级面板数据，考察人工智能技术对碳排放的影响。研究发现：人工智能技术与碳排放之间呈倒U型关系，即当人工智能技术达到一定阈值后，其碳减排效应逐渐凸显；人工智能技术主要通过提高能源利用效率实现碳减排；在东部和西部地区，人工智能技术与碳排放之间存在显著倒U型关系，而在中部地区，人工智能技术对碳排放发挥持续促进作用。因此，在推进“双碳”目标过程中，需要以绿色低碳发展为目标开发人工智能技术，正确引导人工智能在碳减排领域的研发应用，针对不同区域实际制定差异化发展政策。     

Do technology externalities justify restrictions on emission permit trading?

International emission trading is an important flexibility mechanism, but its use has been often restricted on the ground that access to international carbon credits can undermine the domestic abatement effort reducing the incentive to innovate and, eventually, lowering the pace of climate policy-induced technological change. This paper examines the economics that is behind these concerns by studying how a cap to the trade of carbon offsets influences innovation, technological change, and welfare. By using a standard game of abatement and R&D, we investigate the main mechanisms that shape these relationships. We also use a numerical integrated assessment model that features environmental and technology externalities to quantify how limits to the volume, the timing, and the regional allocation of carbon offsets affect climate policy costs and the incentive to invest in innovation and low-carbon technologies.Results indicate that, for moderate caps on the amount tradable emissions permits and sufficiently high technology spillovers, global innovation and technical change would increase and that this additional innovative effort could lead to economic efficiency gains. The numerical analysis confirms that when constraints are close to 15% of domestic abatement, efficiency losses are small because they are partly compensated by more technological spillovers and lower energy prices. Under a broad range of parameters, restrictions are costly for the constrained countries, but always beneficial for unconstrained ones.     

Carbon Capture and a Commercial Market for CO2

With increasing evidence that the earth is warming at a faster rate than previously expected, there is pressure to reduce carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions on a large scale. Because carbon capture helps to internalize the CO₂ externality, economists have begun to evaluate its potential. Two possibilities exist: carbon capture and storage (CCS), where CO₂ is sequestered, usually underground; and the development of a commercial market, where CO₂ is used for transformation into calcium carbonate, biofuels, air conditioning, or other market options. This paper contrasts CCS with the development of a commercial market for CO₂ and finds that the commercial market holds many advantages: internalization of the pollution externality, addressing the innovation externality, and revenue generation. Depending on the development of the commercial market, revenue from the sale of CO₂ could partially or fully offset the cost of innovation in carbon capture technology.     

颠覆性技术关注方向演化研究

关注颠覆性技术创新方向演变对于构建颠覆性技术“发现—遴选—培养”机制，挖掘重大颠覆性技术选题具有重要意义。利用三螺旋协同性测度模型量化政府、产业、学术界3类主体对颠覆性技术关注方向的协同程度，构建颠覆性技术行动者网络，利用社会网络分析法解析网络结构形式下政、产、学三方关注颠覆性技术创新的耦合方向，探究高度耦合技术方向的演化特点。最后，获得技术关注方向协同性、技术关注耦合方向特征、技术关注方向耦合时间时序特征、技术关注方向耦合机构特征、高度耦合技术方向演化特征5个方面的结论。     

From innovation to market entry: a strategic management model for new technologies

In this paper, we introduce a new framework that generates a list of strategic actions to support successful management of the innovation process as new technologies are taken to market. The framework links different stakeholders inside and outside the organisation to obtain an holistic view of the requirements necessary to develop the new technology. It integrates and synthesises existing frameworks into an inclusive set of guidelines. The framework is then tested in a case study located in a mid-size semiconductor organisation currently seeking new business opportunities in the emerging photovoltaic market. We conclude by reflecting on the usefulness of the model. Theoretically, the paper contributes to the literature on the management of the introduction of new technologies; practically, the framework provides a normative tool for practising managers.     

Learning pathways for energy supply technologies: Bridging between innovation studies and learning rates

Understanding and supporting learning for different emerging low carbon energy supply technology fields is a key issue for policymakers, investors and researchers. A range of contrasting analytical approaches are available: energy system modelling using learning rates provides abstracted, quantitative and output oriented accounts, while innovation studies research offers contextualised, qualitative and process oriented accounts. Drawing on research literature and expert consultation on learning for several different emerging energy supply technologies, this paper introduces a ‘learning pathways’ matrix to help bridge between the rich contextualisation of innovation studies and the systematic comparability of learning rates. The learning pathways matrix characterises technology fields by their relative orientation to radical or incremental innovation, and to concentrated or distributed organisation. A number of archetypal learning pathways are outlined to help learning rates analyses draw on innovation studies research, so as to better acknowledge the different niche origins and learning dynamics of emerging energy supply technologies. Finally, a future research agenda is outlined, based on socio-technical learning scenarios for accelerated energy innovation.     

Technological Threat and Opportunity Assessment

One of the major challenges in the management of innovation is a practical and useful implementation of technology forecasting. This article proposes the concept of aniticpating the technological future, and that a structured approach to this concept could be an invaluable aid to technical decision-making. The notion of technological threat and opportunity assessment is presented as a useful framework for anticipating technological change. This notion is based on a dual approach.Firstly, a rapidly changing global technological landscape necessitates keeping track of technological developments. However, since we are dealing with innovation (rather than mere invention), the market implications are as important as the technological ones and have to be accounted for as such. Secondly, any organisation could be considered to be technology-based to some or other degree, implying that technologies have the ability to affect the bottom line of the organisation in some way. It is thus required to assess the business impact of such technologies, typically through a technology or innovation audit.Having assessed specific technological threats and opportunities facing the organisation, an innovation strategy needs to be developed in response to the identified threats and opportunities. Various possible offensive and/or defensive responses should be considered, culminating in the selection and implementation of an optimal strategy.     

Reexamining the interaction between innovation and capital accumulation

In endogenous growth models with innovation and capital accumulation Arnold [J. Macroeconomics 20 (1998) 189] and Blackburn et al. [J. Macroeconomics 22 (2000) 81] show that long-run growth of per capita income is independent of innovation activities; it is solely determined by preferences and the human capital accumulation technology. As a result, government policies do not affect long-run growth. This paper develops an endogenous growth model with innovation and (physical and human) capital accumulation to show that long-run growth depends on both innovation and capital accumulation technologies as well as on preferences and that government taxes and subsidies can have effects on the long-run growth rate.     

新技术进步会阻碍传统技术创新吗——来自汽车产业的实证检验

在新旧技术竞争过程中，传统企业会适时调整研发策略，以应对新技术进步对传统技术造成的冲击。然而，新技术对传统技术的影响究竟表现为创新替代效应还是创新互补效应，至今依然没有得到确切结论。以汽车产业为研究对象，比较传统燃油汽车和电动汽车两种新旧技术的发展路径，并结合产业生命周期理论提出汽车产业的三阶段演化模型。进一步基于1995—2021年省级专利数据和面板向量自回归模型，从产品创新和工艺创新两个维度实证检验各阶段电动汽车技术进步对传统汽车企业创新的影响。结果表明，在电动汽车产业的范式导入期（1995—2008年），新技术通过产品创新和工艺创新两方面促进传统技术发展；在电动汽车产业的范式构建期（2009—2021年），新技术依然对传统技术有显著推动作用，但仅通过工艺创新促进传统技术发展。     

能量转换视角下人工智能关键核心技术产业化路径解析

人工智能是驱动新一轮科技革命和产业变革的中坚力量，探究人工智能关键核心技术产业化路径对于我国数字经济发展、数字化转型和创新型国家建设具有重要意义。基于能量转换视角，探讨人工智能技术产业化路径形成机理，识别人工智能关键核心技术产业化路径并对其进行解析。研究发现：①人工智能技术产业化过程存在能量转换，技术创新能量、催化孕育能量、商业转化能量和业态塑造能量共同构成能量转换的核心环节，决定技术产业化路径具体过程；②人工智能关键核心技术包括机器学习、计算机视觉、自然语言处理等八大技术领域，不同属性核心技术构成相应技术集群，形成以识别、交互和执行为主题的技术产业化路径；③技术集群属性是影响技术产业化路径的关键因素。从能量视角对人工智能关键核心技术进行有效识别和归纳，为我国科学推进人工智能技术产业化进程提供相应思路启示与政策响应。     

人力资本、绿色科技创新与长江经济带全要素碳排放效率

基于1999—2019年长江经济带面板数据,运用全局超效率SBM模型、拓展的STIRPAT模型、中介效应模型和门槛模型,考察人力资本、绿色科技创新与全要素碳排放效率之间的关系。研究结果表明,人力资本积累在直接促进长江经济带全要素碳排放效率优化的同时,通过绿色科技创新发挥间接促进作用。为进一步推动长江经济带全要素碳排放效率提升,加快建成引领全国经济高质量发展的主力军,建议以绿色科技创新为引领,促进人力资本不断积累,全面激发长江经济带绿色低碳转型发展活力。     

Technology Adoption,Export Status,and Skill Upgrading: Theory and Evidence

This paper develops a model of trade that features heterogeneous firms, technology choice and different types of skilled labor in a general equilibrium framework to explain within‐industry increase in the relative demand for skilled workers. Its main contribution is to investigate the impact of firms' export and technology choice decisions on skill upgrading. Only firms in the upper range of the productivity distribution produce for the foreign market using high‐technology. Since this technology is skilled‐biased, exporters that resort to modern technologies are more skill intensive. Empirical evidence is also provided to support the model's main predictions using plant‐level panel data from Chile's manufacturing sector (1990–1999).