颠覆性双元创新对数字产业技术融合的影响研究——市场与技术的联动效应

颠覆性创新是数字产业突破在位企业封锁,掌握技术主导权的核心动力。多维度的颠覆性创新政策能否真正促进数字产业技术融合度的提升,行业中其他企业又扮演何种角色？本文围绕技术与市场两个维度,基于数字产业中具有代表性智能制造业的研究数据,运用双元创新理论,探讨探索与利用两种颠覆性技术创新政策影响数字产业技术融合的异同,以及技术距离在其中的作用机制;并比较颠覆性技术双元和颠覆性市场双元之间不同的联动效应。采用逐步回归进行实证检验,研究发现：(1)颠覆性技术探索对技术融合度有显著的正向影响,且技术距离正向调节颠覆性技术探索与技术融合度间关系;(2)颠覆性技术利用与技术融合度呈倒U型关系,且技术距离正向调节颠覆性技术利用与技术融合度间关系;(3)不同的颠覆性技术创新和颠覆性市场创新联动关系对企业技术融合有着截然不同的影响,具体来说,在企业选定颠覆性技术探索战略的情境下,颠覆性市场双元对数字产业技术融合度不会产生明显的促进或抑制作用;在企业选定颠覆性技术利用战略的情境下,颠覆性市场探索对数字产业技术融合度表现出更为明显的促进作用。     

Technological regimes and demand structure in the evolution of the pharmaceutical industry

This paper examines how the nature of the technological regime governing innovative activities and the structure of demand interact in determining market structure, with specific reference to the pharmaceutical industry. The key question concerns the observation that—despite high degrees of R&D and marketing-intensity—concentration has been consistently low during the whole evolution of the industry. Standard explanations of this phenomenon refer to the random nature of the innovative process, the patterns of imitation, and the fragmented nature of the market into multiple, independent submarkets. We delve deeper into this issue by using an improved version of our previous “history-friendly” model of the evolution of pharmaceuticals. Thus, we explore the way in which changes in the technological regime and/or in the structure of demand may generate or not substantially higher degrees of concentration. The main results are that, while technological regimes remain fundamental determinants of the patterns of innovation, the demand structure plays a crucial role in preventing the emergence of concentration through a partially endogenous process of discovery of new submarkets. However, it is not simply market fragmentation as such that produces this result, but rather the entity of the “prize” that innovators can gain relative to the overall size of the market. Further, the model shows that emerging industry leaders are innovative early entrants in large submarkets.     

Technical change in the commercial aircraft industry, 1925–1975

The American commercial aircraft industry has complied an extremely impressive record of performance in innovation and growth in output. This paper assesses the impact of government policy during a fifty-year period upon innovative performance and market structure in the commercial aircraft industry. In general, this apparent success of government policies in supporting rapid technical change in the industry reflects the impact of these policies upon both the supply of technological knowledge and the demand for innovative aircraft designs. The success of this policy structure has implications for technology policies in other industries.     

The changing pattern of industrial technology linkage structure of Korea: Did the ICT industry play a role in the 1980s and 1990s?

The notion of the knowledge-based economy highlights the strategic importance of inter-industrial knowledge flows. Among others, the crucial role of information and communications technology (ICT) industry is emphasized. The pattern whereby technological knowledge is created, accumulated and disseminated through the interactive learning among industries can be portrayed as a network. Based on the network theory, this empirical study analyses, from the dynamic perspective, inter-industrial technological knowledge structure of Korean industries during the reference period of early 1980s to mid-1990s. Overall, the density of the network increased over time, implying that the knowledge network has expanded and intensified. The role of the ICT industry in the global network has also increased but needs to be further strengthened, especially informatization of non-ICT industries by the outflow of ICT industrial knowledge in the future. The findings in turn render some important policy implications that should be addressed in developing technology policy.     

The co-evolution of technology and methods of standard setting: the case of the mobile phone industry

This paper applies the concept of co-evolution to technology, institutions, and industry structure in the mobile phone industry with a focus on technology and the institution/method of standard setting. The paper shows how changes in technology have caused the method of standard setting to come full circle. New switching technologies, in particular electronic switching, enabled a change from integral to modular problem solving and thus a change from quasi-vertical integration to open standard setting in the wireline telecommunications industry in the late 1970s and later in the mobile phone industry. Growth in those mobile phone markets that initially implemented an open standard setting process encouraged other countries to adopt similar types of standard setting where government agencies and firms were the mechanisms for this transmission of open standard setting methods. However, the latest technological change, the mobile Internet, requires integral problem solving and this has caused quasi-vertical integration to return in the form of service providers determining the mobile Internet standards and the specifications for the phones that support their mobile Internet services. A new set of firms is transmitting these methods of standard setting to the rest of the world.

基于结构方程模型的建筑业低碳竞争力形成机理分析

以能源结构、生产能力和环保能力作为建筑业低碳竞争力的外生潜变量,以低碳竞争力和低碳技术利用率作为内生潜变量,构建了具有可持续发展特征的评价建筑业低碳竞争力的结构方程模型,并运用Lisrel软件对我国30个省(自治区、直辖市)的建筑业低碳竞争力进行了模型分析。结果表明:能源结构、生产能力和环保能力是影响建筑业低碳竞争力的重要因素,其中生产能力对建筑业低碳竞争力的影响最大;建筑面积碳排放效率的因子荷载值远大于产值利润率,表明建筑面积碳排放效率对建筑业低碳竞争力的影响较大。最后提出提高我国建筑业低碳竞争力的对策建议:大力宣传低碳思想,推行清洁生产;加强对建筑业节能技术的研究,加速节能技术改造进程;制定适应市场环境的低碳政策。     

Intra-Industry Gaps in Technology and Investments in Technological Capabilities: Firm-level evidence from Chile

This paper develops a theoretical framework to analyse intra-industry gaps in technology, and tests it with enterprise-level data from a developing country. Following neoclassical theory, the existence of inter-firm technological gaps is explained by factor market segmentation that determines different factor prices and therefore different firms' technological choices. However, intra-industry gaps in technology may also result from the nature of the process of technological development, and from the different level of investments in technological capabilities.The empirical analysis is based on a sample of 338 industrial enterprises from Chile, and shows that it is possible to define technological thresholds, characterised by significant shifts in technology, independently of factor market segmentation. The analysis focuses on five major sectors: food processing, textile and garments, woodworking, metalworking and paper. Firms with different levels of technological complexity coexist within the same industry, and differences in technology are discrete, with different clusters sharing similar characteristics within the same industry. These results also have important policy implications for industrial development, which are drawn in a final section.     

How technological innovation affects the structure of an industry: entrepreneurship evolution in the biotechnology and pharmaceutical industry since 1980

Challenges faced by the biotechnology and pharmaceutical industry, including reduced R&D productivity and the expiration of drugs that are high in demand, are recently being addressed through technological innovation. Such innovations are highly likely to change the structure and functioning of the industry. Since 2000, biotechnology and pharmaceutical companies have actively made strategic alliance, and technological innovations have changed the source of innovation from R&D to entrepreneurship within the industry. In this study, we identify the evolution of entrepreneurship and discuss the changes caused by technological advancements since 1980 by analysing patterns of exporting and acquiring technology data from Medtrack. Over difference period, biopharmaceutical firms have gained new knowledge and improved technology, and have implemented this newly acquired knowledge and innovation to introduce drugs to the market.     

When technological discontinuities and disruptive business models challenge dominant industry logics: Insights from the drugs industry

An industry's dominant logic is the general scheme of value creation and capture shared by its actors. In high technology fields, technological discontinuities are not enough to disrupt an industry's dominant logic. Identifying the factors that might trigger change in that logic can help companies develop strategies to enable them to capture greater value from their innovations by disrupting that logic. Based on analyzing the changes that biotechnologies and bioinformatics have brought to the drug industry, we identify and characterize three triggers of change that can create disruptive business models. We suggest that, in mature industries experiencing strong discontinuities and high technological uncertainty, entrants' business models initially tend to fit into the industry's established dominant logic and its value chains remain unchanged. But as new technologies evolve and uncertainty decreases, disruptive business models emerge, challenging dominant industry logics and reshaping established value chains.     

Technological change in niches: Auxiliary Power Units and the hydrogen economy

In studies of large scale systems innovations or technological transitions, niches have been given a prominent role as incubators for the seeds of future technological systems. It is often argued that immature technologies rely on niches for their development, before they are able to compete in mainstream markets. This paper combines insights from economic theory and from technology studies to formulate a framework for understanding the dynamics of technological change in niches, and applies this framework to the case of fuel cell Auxiliary Power Units (APUs). We conclude that the choice of technology for APUs will be of critical importance in determining the role this market could have in shaping future developments in hydrogen and fuel cells. However, a number of factors are not strictly dependent on the technology used in fuel cell APUs. These comprise factors influencing external economies of scale, network effects, the behaviour of users and expectations.     

Technology,productivity, and industry structure

This paper examines the controversy as to the particular firm size or industry structure that is most conducive to innovation. Four major conclusions emerge from the considerations advanced here. First, contrary to the focus of the controversy, the relevant issue is not one of the economic statics. Rather, it is one of technological dynamism. Second, variety is an essential ingredient of innovative activity, which can be sustained only through equivalent variety in firm size and industry structure. Thus, there is no one single optimum firm size or industry structure. Third, the origin of interindustry differences in innovation and productivity growth lies in certain processes of cumulative causation involving a multiplicity of variables rather than any one single factor at the exclusion of all others. In consequence, we find that productivity does not advance in a uniform manner across various industries. Rather, it is characterized by an inherently uneven pattern of growth. Fourth, it is pointless to strive for a balanced growth between various sectors of the economy. Rather, an effective policy is one of deliberately lopsided growth whereby fuller development of progressive industries makes it possible to generate the additional resources required for investment in the backward industries. Finally, while the policy to stimulate technical progress and productivity growth must be formulated in a broader socioeconomic context, its focus ought to be on the internal dynamics of technical change processes.     

Licensing technology to shape standards: Examining the influence of the industry context

Technology standards refer to particular technological solutions, which emerge as the accepted approach to fulfill a particular function. In light of the growing importance of technology standards and network externalities, industrial firms may not only adopt emerging standards, but they can actively shape the standardization processes based on their forecasting activities. One important means to influence standard setting towards a firm's own technology is to foster the technology's adoption by actively licensing it to other organizations. Thus, industrial firms may license technology in order to enhance their future new product performance based on a standard related to their technology. To shed light on these dynamics of standardization processes, we draw on contingency theory and conceptually examine the role of licensing in the emergence of technology standards. We further use new data from two surveys of 79 industrial firms with a three-year lag to analyze how environmental contingency factors related to appropriability, i.e., patent protection and technological turbulence, moderate the relationship between licensing to shape technology standards and a firm's subsequent innovation performance. The data provide strong support for the importance of shaping standards by licensing technology, and the findings have important implications for research into standards, licensing, and appropriability.     

Strategic alliances and internationalisation in the aircraft manufacturing industry

Based on an indicator measuring the technological level of aircraft, this paper shows that in the aircraft industry, firms are obliged to deal not only with high technological barriers, but growing financial and market barriers, too. In order to reduce these, a complex network of relationships has developed over time. This network involves both main firms belonging to the world oligopoly and firms capable of offering specialised technology and/or a potential broadening of the market. The result is a worldwide production organisation. This paper highlights the fact that the aircraft industry is undergoing a global reorganisation featuring an integration process where six groups (two in Europe and four in the United States) have come to the fore. In the future, it will be possible to imagine new forms of co-operation between the emerging European and American groups.     

Rapid Technology Change, ‘Technological Visions’, Corporate Organisation And Market Structure

This paper is a contribution to the analysis of how rapid technology change influences market structure. The paper uses a simple simulation model to explore the effects of four main factors on the development of market structure. These are: (1) the variance (or unpredictability) of the technology trajectory; (2) the speed with which the organisation's ‘technological vision’ adjusts to ongoing technological developments; (3) the absorptive capacity of each division in the multi-divisional firm to experience gained in other divisions; (4) the extent to which competence-destroying innovations generate greater cost penalties for the division of a multi-divisional firm than for a comparable mono-divisional firm. Simultion results are obtained for 100 technological trajectories, and a variety of parameterisations. While there is a tendency for noisier trajectories to disadvantage the larger multi-divisional firm, there are conditions under which such a firm benefits from a noisy technological environment. When competence-destorying innovations affect the division of a multi-divisional firm no worse than the comparable mono-divisional firm, the multi-divisional firm is not disproportionately affected by a noisy trajectory. It may, however, be seriously damaged by a slow adjustment of technological vision, especially when all scale economies are dynamic (rather than static). The simulations confirm that the absorptive capacity of each division to experience from others can be critical in determining the ultimate market structure. A brief empirical motivation for the model is offered by reference to some case studies of the semiconductor industry.     

A simple theory and evidence on the determinants of firm R&D

This paper derives a simple, but informative, model of firm R&D to figure out key factors that determine firm R&D effort. The model suggests a demand-pull, technology-push theory of R&D by showing that a firm's profit-maximizing R&D expenditure is determined jointly by both demand-side factors and technology-side factors. The former includes demand size (firm sales) and consumer preference over quality and price and the latter includes R&D cost structure or the production-cost effect of product R&D and firm-specific technological competence. In addition, the model shows that other things being equal, the stock of exogenous technological knowledge, including the firm's previously accumulated technological knowledge, relevant to current R&D which is negatively related with current R&D effort. An empirical analysis of firm R&D intensities and technological capabilities of more than 1600 firms in nine industries across six countries provides supportive evidence for the theory. Further, the theory implies that R&D intensity or the R&D-to-sales ratio is independent of firm size unless firm size affects technological competence and that given consumer preference and R&D cost structure facing all firms in the same industry, the distribution of firm-specific technological competence among firms determines the distribution of firm R&D intensities within the industry.     

The influence of user-supplier relationship on innovation dynamics of Oil & Gas industry

ABSTRACT

This paper analyses the role of user-supplier relationships in the innovation dynamics of the Oil and Gas (O&G) industry, from an analysis supported by R&D and patent application data. This paper points to some recent interesting phenomena in the O&G sector, such as: (i) the remarkable advancement of two Chinese oil companies; (ii) the significant growth in O&G companies’ technological engagement in exploration and production (E&P) from the 2000s; (iii) the non-negligible increase in the application of O&G companies’ patents for renewable energy. Moreover, by working with the oil and gas chain complete, we show that the performance of the companies oil and gas equipment and services industry (O&GES) is restricted to the upstream activities. Finally, we bring up some arguments that have as objective relativise the typology of R&D intensity adopted by OECD.     

Wages and productivity growth in a competitive industry

We describe the evolution of productivity growth in a competitive industry with free entry and exit. The exogenous wage rate determines the firms’ engagement in labor productivity enhancing process innovation. There is a unique steady state of the industry dynamics, which is globally asymptotically stable. In the steady state, the number of active firms, their unit labor cost and supply depend on the growth rate but not on the level of the wage rate. In addition to providing comparative statics of the steady state, the paper characterizes the industry's adjustment path.     

专利家族视角下技术演化路径依赖研究——以光刻技术为例

以专利家族为研究视角，阐述技术路径动态演化过程中的路径依赖。专利家族自引会对技术主路径造成干扰，通过对主路径进行调整，提出一种修正技术主路径的新思路。研究发现：光刻技术在“投影对准和曝光系统—浸没式投影物镜—浸没式光刻材料—光刻胶”4个阶段经历了“路径消解—路径产生与路径依赖—路径消解与突破”的动态演化过程。在此过程中，以荷兰阿斯麦、德国蔡司和日本东京电子为代表的专利家族发挥重要作用。其中，以阿斯麦为核心的利益联盟垄断核心技术，强化光刻技术发展的路径依赖作用，占据市场领先地位。研究结论有助于深化对路径依赖理论的认知，通过揭示光刻技术路径演化过程及企业演化格局，为后发国家突破技术路径依赖提供实践启示。     

科技金融对制造业结构优化的双重效应研究——基于省级制造业面板数据的GMM估计

科技金融为我国产业升级带来新的发展机遇，制造业作为经济发展的核心，其结构优化升级是否受科技金融的影响值得探索。采用2010—2016年我国省级制造业细分行业数据，从合理化、高级化角度考察科技金融对制造业结构的直接效应和间接效应。结果发现，科技金融对制造业结构合理化和高级化具有直接促进作用，同时其直接影响具有地区异质性。从合理化角度，科技金融对沿海地区制造业结构合理化的影响程度低于内陆地区；从高级化角度，科技金融能够显著促进沿海地区制造业结构高级化，对内陆地区的影响则不显著。另外，通过分析科技金融对制造业结构优化的间接影响发现，技术创新和要素市场发育在科技金融对制造业结构优化的影响过程中发挥积极中介作用。     

中国技术创新影响因素的行业差异研究——以高技术产业为例

本文利用中国16个高技术行业的面板数据,对高技术行业的技术创新影响因素进行了实证分析,不仅研究了R＆D投入对高技术行业技术创新的影响,还考虑了行业融资结构、所有制结构、企业规模以及市场集中度等因素的影响作用。实证结果表明,R＆D投入是高技术产业技术创新的主要影响因素;技术创新的融资结构对高技术产业技术创新能力有显著影响,政府资金和金融机构资金在技术创新融资中的比例增加不利于提高高技术企业的技术创新能力;企业的产权制度改革对高技术行业技术创新能力有明显的促进作用;行业内的企业规模越大、市场集中度越高对高技术行业技术创新能力的正向影响越显著。