CONCEPTS AND PROBLEMS OF CONSISTENCY IN TERMS-OF-TRADE ANALYSIS*

The debate on how to deal with changes of relative prices in national accounts has, so far, remained inconclusive, especially with regard to the question of how to measure gains from changes of terms of trade. Keeping the experiences of the 1970s in mind (i.e. substantial changes of relative prices sparked off by increased oil prices), this state of affairs is not considered tenable. On this background, the paper takes up the old debate on how to deflate figures of domestic product, total as well as by industries. It tries to argue that deflated figures should be presented not only as real product figures by industries (using the double deflation method), but also as real income figures, obtained by deflating the current-prices figures of a certain year by the same general price index. When this is done according to procedures spelled out in detail, gains/losses from changes of the terms of trade in foreign trade will show up as an integral part of the framework. In the paper, special attention is given to the concept of industry terms of trade. On the basis of simplifying assumptions (which are, however, relaxed in the final part of the paper), it is shown how the ratio of real income divided by real product of a certain industry will be proportionate to the terms of trade of the industry concerned, when the latter concept is defined in the appropriate way. Furthermore, the sum of the industry gains/losses from changes of their terms of trade will be equal to the gain/loss of the economy taken as a whole from changes of the terms of trade in foreign trade.     

EXCHANGE RATE PROBLEMS IN NATIONAL ACCOUNTING OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES*

Developing countries which typically have import surpluses and inflationary pressures because of insufficient savings are prone to use indirect taxes on imports (Tm) and subsidization of exports (Sx) in order to prevent deterioration of the balance of trade. If these substitutes for devaluation are included in the net indirect tax component of product at current market prices (Ym) the import surplus is likely to be understated, and Ym upward biased. This distortion will be avoided if imports and exports are measured at effective exchange rates (ER), that is, at official rates (OR) plus Tm and Sx respectively, and if (Tm - Sx) is deducted from the net indirect tax component of Ym. Only in this manner become imports and exports consistent with the other uses and resources at market prices and can be articulated with them. At base-year prices the volume index of product at OR diverges from that of ER to the degree that the composition of imports and exports in regard to tax and subsidy rates computed ad valorem significantly changes. Such a case is similar to that of the price indexes of imports and exports moving in diverging proportions: the trade balance at base-year prices will differ from that at current prices. The resulting discrepancies in national accounts have led to proposals of deflating, for example, exports by the price index of imports. Suchlike approaches are incompatible with the principle of national accounting that prices are supposed already to measure substitution values. Deflating exports by import prices means reintroducing substitution values, as does, for example, deflation of incomes by a consumer price index. Correspondingly, since the trade balance at ER conceptually expresses the value of imports at domestic market prices as compared to the corresponding domestic market value of exports, and if at ER the trade balance diverges from that at OR, the former balance has an important meaning (as has the trade balance at base-year prices as compared to that at current prices) and the resulting discrepancy between the two measures should not be removed merely for the sake of accounting smoothness. In contrast to the market price approach, the measurement of product at base-year factor cost is indifferent to the measurement of the trade balance at ER and at OR. It is, therefore, proposed in countries in which part of import taxation and export subsidization substitutes for devaluation, to record imports and exports in the national accounts at effective exchange rates, and to correct the net indirect tax component of product correspondingly. Imports and exports at official exchange rates should be shown within the balance of payments, and the latter separately as a memorandum item.     

Real Gross Domestic Product and the Terms of Trade

Since their inception in the early 1960s, constant price national accounts have contained a measurement inconsistency in the expenditure accounts which flows through to the production accounts. The inconsistency has the effect of excluding changes in the terms of trade (the ratio of export prices to import prices) from real gross domestic product, so that it is unequal to real gross domestic income, which includes them. In economies, such as those of Australia and Canada, that experience substantial changes in the terms of trade, a real gross domestic product excluding those effects becomes a misleading guide for macroeconomic analysis and policy.     

Monopoly,intermediate goods and the pure theory of international trade

Conclusion In a model with two traded good sectors between which intersectoral flows of intermediate goods are allowed and with a monopolized non-traded good sector, the wage rate in terms of two traded goods increases and the rental of capital in terms of two traded goods decreases when the price of relatively more labor intensive traded good sector increases, though nothing definite can be said about the direction of change in the wage rate and rental in terms of the non-traded good. When prices of traded goods are kept constant and labor and/or capital increase(s), output of the non-traded good sector increases provided that the non-traded good is not inferior, having income elasticity of demand less than unity. The factor intensity condition for the traded goods is in general not sufficient for the validity of the Rybczynski theorem to hold with respect to net outputs of the traded goods. We have derived sufficient conditions for the magnification effect to be observed with respect to net outputs of the traded good sectors. Specifically, we have shown that the factor intensity condition (23) is sufficient for the magnification effect to prevail when only labor increases.     

Calculating the real return on a sovereign wealth fund

We present a new methodology for calculating the real return on sovereign wealth funds (SWF) that share the investment objective of maximizing international purchasing power in terms of goods and services. Specifically, we modify the traditional approach for deflating the nominal return along three dimensions: the aggregator formula, the measure of international prices and the weighting scheme. We argue that a geometric average of price levels is an appropriate aggregator formula for capturing the deflationary effects of imports increasingly originating from low‐cost countries, and that import prices paid by the SWF owner and weights reflecting the owner's import pattern are consistent with the investment objective. Our proposed approach, using the Norwegian Government Pension Fund Global as an illustration, raises the estimated average annual real rate of return over the sample period of 1998–2012 from 3.1% to 4.9%.     

NATIONAL PRODUCT AT CONSTANT PRICES IN THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY

With few exceptions, only cormmodity flows and values which can be determined by means of commodity flows (flows of goods and services) are calculated in constant prices in the official national accounts of the Federal Republic of Germany. Figures an the industrial origin and the final use of the national product are published, the former according to thirty industries, the latter according to the major types of uses of which in particular private consumption expenditure has been further analysed. The computations at constant prices are based on market prices and not on factor costs. It is only on this basis that a uniform valuation of the production and the expenditure side can be made since the turnover tax, which is the most important indirect tax, is contained in the elements of final demand in varying shares and cannot be eliminated (the tax is part of the price and has cumulative effect). The computation at constant prices presupposes a breakdown of the values in current prices according to quantities and prices. This raises a number of problems, e.g. because seller and buyer may consider differing aspects-production costs, technical attributes, etc., on the one hand, and use etc., on the other hand. In part there exist only vague ideas, or no ideas at all, as to what is to be considered-from a theoretical point of view-as quantity and price. In other cases the two values can only with great difficulties, if at all, be quantified, or there exists no market price and only the production costs are available. The author deals in greater detail with differences in quality and new commodities, the determination and treatment of quantities and prices for services, in particular for trade services (services attached to goods), the computation of government services at constant prices considering the development of productivity in public service, the determination of the values calculated as balances, above all the treatment of changes in the terms of trade for net exports of goods and services, the computation of the contributions of industries to the gross domestic product and, finally, the reconciliation of the production and the expenditure side. In a third section the author deals with index formulae and the base year. In the majority of cases values are deflated; partly, however, they are currently adjusted by means of volume and quantity data. On the production side the two methods are in part combined. In a concluding section a survey is provided of the computation methods used in the Federal Republic of Germany and on the available material for the computations. Mention is made of depreciation at constant prices.     

PRICES AND PRICE ANALYSIS IN THE FRAMEWORK OF THE NATIONAL ACCOUNTS

The paper discusses the role of prices in the framework of the new System of National Accounts (SNA) in terms of three major uses: (1) deflation, (2) price indicators, and (3) price analysis. Following a brief review of the price and quantity measures required by the new SNA with its emphasis on deflation of commodity flows and input-output accounts, in addition to the more conventional deflation of final demand categories, the paper discusses some of the conceptual, methodological and data problems involved in implementing the various uses of prices in the new SNA. Implementing the use of prices as deflators depends, in part, on the concept of output selected (national versus domestic; gross versus net), and which of six concepts of valuation, ranging from purchasers'value to true factor cost, is used. Some of the difficulties in deflating nonmarket flows (e.g., interplant transfers) and industry value added, based on the double deflation method, are discussed. In concept price deflators, which have shifting weights, cannot be used as price indicators, which should have fixed weights. In practice, this is often disregarded and the deflators are used as price indicators. The paper support the SNA recommendation for the development of price indexes with fixed weights to be used as price indicators, in addition to the implicit price deflators. Research in the United States indicates that differences in weights can result in different price measures for various subperiods, components of demand and sector output. Periodic revisions in weights to provide more current fixed weights for price and quantity indexes in each subperiod may minimize the problem but it introduces a new problem—lack of comparability with the constant price tables in the SNA which have fixed weights for the entire period. The new SNA provides a comprehensive and integrated framework for price analysis including the analysis of the structure of aggregate price changes, the industrial origin of final demand prices, and the impact of price change in one sector of the economy on the rest of the economy. Some major gaps which need to be overcome in order to implement the use of the new SNA for price analysis include the development of industry capital stock estimates, separate estimates of proprietors’income, reconciliation of value added and distribution share estimates, and the development of a wide variety of information to supplement the conventional input-output tables in the SNA. Implementing the various objectives of price measures within the framework of the accounts will require a number of improvements in existing price measures and expanding the scope of coverage. “List” prices should be superseded by “transactions” prices and better techniques and data need to be developed to provide for quality adjustment of prices. Coverage will need to be expanded to include services, freight rates, trade margins, government expenditures, and also fill in gaps for many manufactured products. Finally, where possible, use of unit values as price indexes or deflators, e.g., imports and exports, should be replaced by direct price measures.     

Factor Substitution and Relative Factor Prices

This paper examines the effects of factor endowments on factor prices in a three‐factor, two‐commodity general‐equilibrium model with endogenous commodity demand and prices. Unlike the conventional small open‐economy model that assumes constant commodity prices, factor substitution influences the direction of these effects. When a factor endowment increases, complementarity with the expanding factor benefits an unchanged factor, but substitutability harms it. If the unchanged factors are complements, there is a possibility of a rise in the expanding factor's price. A comparison of this closed‐economy model with the small open‐economy model reveals the role of international trade, which dampens the effect on the expanding factor's price.     

Exchange‐rate Effects on China's Trade*

Though China's share of world trade exceeds that of Japan, little is known about the response of China's trade to changes in exchange rates. The few estimates available have two limitations. First, the data for trade prices are based on proxies for prices from other countries. Secondly, the estimation sample includes the period of China's transformation from a centrally‐planned economy to a more market‐oriented one. We address these limitations with an empirical model explaining the shares of China's exports and imports in world trade in terms of the real effective value of the renminbi. The specifications control for foreign direct investment and for the role of imports of parts to assemble exports. Parameter estimation uses disaggregated monthly trade data and excludes China's decentralization period. We find that a 10 percent real appreciation of the renminbi lowers the share of aggregate Chinese exports by nearly one percentage point. However, the estimated response of imports is negligible and lacks precision.     

美国需求端产业结构的变化及对中国的启示

对产业结构演化的研究都是从供给端计算的产业结构，本文构造了从需求端计算的产业结构并依此对美国需求端产业结构的演化进行了实证分析。研究表明，当年价所计算的美国需求端三次产业结构的变化小于供给端产业结构的变化；1970年以来美国第二产业的变化差异中近40%可以用外贸因素来解释。进而本文采取不变价计算了美国产业结构的变化，研究表明，自1970年以来按不变价计算的美国需求端的产业结构变化很小，且美国第三产业比例提升中有31%可以用不同产业价格因素变化来解释，44%可以用国际贸易来解释，仅有25%可以用第三产业收入弹性的变化来解释，因而收入弹性不是美国第三产业比例提升的重要原因。美国能够维持经常账户的逆差，将第三产业作为动力产业的根本原因在于美元的霸权地位。相比较而言，中国一直以来处于国际收支“双顺差”的状态，中国的具体国情和国家实力均无法满足大规模输出人民币使之成为其他国家储备货币的条件。     

Adjustment costs and factor demands in Canadian manufacturing industries

This paper examines whether there is a relationship between the commodity terms of trade (the price of primary commodities relative to the price of manufactures) and the net barter terms of trade of 42 Sub-Saharan African countries. For most countries, there is little evidence of a stable, long-run relationship between the two terms of trade series. Accordingly, the practice in the literature of proxying for movements in any given country's terms of trade by using an aggregate index of relative commodity prices is inappropriate, and is likely to engender misleading policy conclusions.     

Rigid Wage,Factor Immobility and Immiserizing Growth*

In the theory of trade and growth, Bhagwati made an interesting contribution by demonstrating the proposition that growth can be welfare reducing even at constant terms of trade, whenever distortions obtain in an economic system. Batra-Scully strengthened the Bhagwati thesis and derived the conditions for growth to be immiserizing at improved terms of trade in the presence of a wage differential. In the present analysis, we show that economic expansion in a country which is characterized by factor immobility and/or factor price rigidity may not reduce the country's real income at constant or improved terms of trade. Specifically, the Bhagwati theorem, and its stronger version proposed by Batra-Scully, hold for an economy with a rigidity in factor price whether or not accompanied by factor immobility. However, growth will not lower welfare at constant or improved terms of trade if factor immobility is the only imperfection existing in the factor market.     

A Classroom Tariff-Setting Game

The author outlines a classroom tariff-setting game that allows students to explore the consequences of import tariffs imposed by large countries (countries able to influence world prices). Groups of students represent countries, which are organized into trading pairs. Each group's objective is to maximize welfare by choosing an appropriate ad valorem tariff that may be changed intermittently throughout the game. The game is built on a computable general-equilibrium model, which allows each nation's utility and terms of trade under alternative tariff regimes to be expressed quantitatively. The exercise encourages students to consider terms-of-trade improvements and efficiency losses resulting from large-country tariffs and provides a framework to discuss the Nash equilibrium of a tariff war. The game is a useful supplement to traditional teaching methods.     

Income instability,terms of trade,and the choice of exchange rate regime

In this article terms of trade fluctuations, which constitute an important source of income instability in many LDC's, are decomposed into three principal components: (a) shifts in world market conditions, (b) shifts in home market conditions and (c) changes in exchange rates. The appropriateness of a ‘basket peg’ is then analyzed in terms of a country's net export-side market power and a weighting formula is derived which would offset variations in third countries' exchange rates on the home country's terms of trade. Initial empirical results tend to support the hypothesis that basket pegs are usually adopted by countries with net export-side market power.     

SECTORAL EXCHANGE RATE PASS-THROUGH: TESTING THE IMPACT OF POLICY REFORMS IN INDIA

This paper analyses the impact of India's policy reforms on exchange rate pass‐through into import and export prices, using panel data (at one‐digit SITC level) for pre‐ (1980–90) and post‐reform (1991–2001) periods. While the pass‐through into import prices has declined, the pass‐through into export prices (in USD terms) has increased during the 1990s. The results suggest that, relative to rupee depreciation, Indian exporters increased their USD prices around 20% in the 1980s, but decreased them by around 70% in the 1990s. Moreover, the number of sectors exhibiting some degree of pass‐through increased in the 1990s (six), relative to the 1980s (three). These changes may be attributable to the elimination of currency and trade controls, which increased competition among firms and fostered a concern with market share gains in the 1990s over an attempt to use depreciations to increase profits in the 1980s.     

NATIONAL ACCOUNTS AT CONSTANT PRICES

This article discusses the problem of compiling a balanced set of national accounts at constant prices. The method adopted is based on earlier work on this subject by Burge and Geary. Commodity flows, which are uniquely deflatable, are expressed at constant prices and savings in constant prices is obtained by preserving a balanced set of equations in real terms. The deflation of the external account is discussed.
A method is suggested for expressing the national income account in real terms and an "income gain" is deduced for each industrial sector which represents the difference between real income and real product in that sector. The sum of the income gains for the domestic sectors is zero.
The constituents of the income/expenditure accounts of households, corporations and general government are expressed at constant prices by selecting suitable deflators in a consistent manner. The accounts in real terms are now unbalanced and are balanced again by inserting a balancing item which is shown to represent a gain to the sector arising from changes in the terms of trade between the sectors. This item is called an "expenditure gain". The sum of the expenditure gains for the institutional sectors is zero.
The system suggested can be extended to cover additional items in the accounts and thus a complete set of national accounts in real terms can be derived.     

DEFLATION OF INPUT-OUTPUT TABLES FROM THE USER'S POINT OF VIEW: A HEURISTIC APPROACH

This paper considers the problem of deflating an input-output table from the viewpoint of the user. In many practical cases certain margins of this table are readily available in constant prices, whereas the entire table is not. This reduces the problem to estimating the matrix of sectoral intermediate deliveries in constant prices. The traditional approach for this purpose is based on the double deflation method. Since double deflation is sensitive to aggregation, however, it typically does not provide correct answers. Therefore, a heuristic approach is proposed as an alternative. It is based on the biproportional projection method. An empirical evaluation indicates that the heuristic approach clearly performs better.     

THE TREATMENT OF INTANGIBLE RESOURCES AS CAPITAL

The author describes the results of his current research designed to measure total investment, tangible and intangible, and the derived capital stocks for the U.S., 1929–1966. With respect to total investment, the estimates show a marked increase in its ratio to GNP. All of the increase occurs in the intangible component comprising R & D, education and training, health, and mobility. The increase was concentrated in the government sector, although households increased the proportion of disposable personal income devoted to total investment.
Consistent with the relative investment trends, the stock of intangible capital grew considerably faster than the tangible stock. The growth of total capital stocks was somewhat less than that of GNP, however, in both current and constant prices. Thus, the rate of return on total capital rose somewhat over the period. Average rates of return on human and nonhuman capital were closely similar.
In real terms, the growth of total capital stocks accounted for two-thirds of the growth in real GNP, 1929–1966. One-third of the growth is attributed to residual forces, chiefly economies of scale, changes in inherent quality of human and natural resources, changes in values and motivations, and changes in rates of utilization of capacity.
The growth of the ratio of real intangible stocks to real tangible stocks accounted for less than half of the increase in total factor productivity 1929–1966. This is significantly less than the contribution of intangibles as estimated by Denison, and the author adduces several reasons why his estimates may understate the contribution. Nevertheless, it seems that the net effect of the residual forces enumerated above must also have made a substantial contribution to the growth of tangible factor productivity and real GNP over the 37-year period.     

QUANTITY AND PRICE EFFECTS IN AN ANALYSIS OF WORLD TRADE BASED ON AN ACCOUNTING MATRIX*

This paper describes the construction of an accounting matrix for the world economy in 1977, cast along similar lines to SNA National Accounts, but one in which trade flows replace inter-industry flows as intermediate demand. The matrix distinguishes ten regions. Institutional accounts are presented for three of these, the European Community, North America and Japan. This matrix is used to provide the basis of a linear model in which average propensities to import and consume are replaced by estimated marginal propensities. Use is made of standard estimates of the income effects of terms of trade changes in order to distinguish substitution from income effects in the model, and a means is suggested for separating the full as well as the impact effects of a terms of trade change into income and substitution effects. The estimated import equations are used to derive estimates of regional growth rates compatible with external balance in each region. Multiplier matrices are calculated from the model showing regional interdependence of the world economy reflecting the pattern of trade which is identified in the marginal propensities to import. The effects of various aid policies are calculated using the model. It is shown that the cost of aid to any region is radically altered by taking into account the feedback effects of changes in demand. A policy of tied aid pursued by EEC, North America and Japan can actually lead to an improvement in Japan's balance of payments position. Finally the effects of movements in relative prices are illustrated by means of two examples.