基于概率模型的新技术采用和扩散研究

通过建立技术采用概率模型,将新技术的期望收益作为刺激变量,研究企业对新技术的微观采用行为以及影响企业间技术扩散的关键因素。研究发现：当行业内采用新技术的企业比例达到临界水平时,潜在企业的采用率提高;新技术更易在技术相似度较高的企业间首先扩散;潜在企业的新产品效用随与其收益高度相关的企业对新技术的采用而增大。基于此,提出企业选择最优采用时机、加快企业间新技术扩散的政策建议。     

市场和技术对企业新技术采用最优时机的影响

基于古诺模型,研究了产品的可替代程度和技术的有效性对企业采用新技术的时机的影响。结果表明:率先采用新技术的企业采用新技术的时机与产品的可替代程度呈倒U型关系;当产品的可替代性足够大且技术有效性充分小时,较晚采用新技术的企业采用新技术的时机会随市场竞争的加剧而提前;两类企业采用新技术的时机与技术的有效性均成负相关关系;面对技术有效性的同水平提高,较晚采用新技术的企业采用新技术的时机将提早得更多。     

绿色经济发展中政府介入时机与政策选择——基于技术采用均衡时间的比较静态分析

发展绿色经济推进经济转型是实现科学发展的核心。市场自身转型的滞后是影响绿色经济发展的重要因素。转型具有公共物品的性质,公共财政的本质意味着政府介入从而消除滞后的合意性。绿色新技术采用的滞后是造成转型滞后的关键,新技术采用路径的均衡时间受多种因素影响从而滞后的程度也就不同;但均衡时间的比较静态分析结果表明,新技术创新的强度、市场需求、贴现率、技术采用成本、既有生产成本以及企业行为等因素的改变都会影响均衡的采用时间,这些都为政府的介入提供了基础。     

中部生态脆弱地区农民对新技术采用意愿研究——基于中部六省生态脆弱地区582位农民的调查

通过对中部生态脆弱地区农民的调查,运用逻辑(Logistic)模型探讨农民采用农业新技术的影响因素.分析结果表明,中部生态脆弱地区农民已经深刻认识到农业科技对于脱贫致富的重要作用,但对农业新技术的采用意愿相对较低.通过进一步对农业新技术采用意愿的影响因素检验,结果发现,农民是否是科技示范户,是否是农业经营大户,是否可以便捷地获取农业科技信息,农民的性别、家庭人均收入、受教育程度,以及是否参加过农业科技培训等因素对农民采用新技术意愿有显著的影响,呈现正相关关系;年龄和外出务工时间对农民采用新技术也有显著的影响,呈现负相关关系;是否村干部,是否具有一定的专业技能对生态脆弱地区农民新技术的采用意愿影响不显著.在此基础上提出相关对策建议.     

创业者制度认知对新技术采用的影响及 政府关系的调节作用 ——基于全球创业观察的实证研究

基于制度理论与认知理论,运用全球创业观察中国项目问卷,以创业者为研究对象,以政府关系为调节变量,实证检验了创业者制度认知对新技术采用的影响,以及政府关系对上述影响的调节作用。研究表明:创业者规章、规范制度认知正向影响新技术采用,政府关系正向调节以上作用。     

中美企业B2B电子商务采用行为研究

本文简要回顾了影响企业信息技术（包括电子商务）采用行为的主要因素。通过对中美两国95家电子、纺织企业B2B电子商务采用行为的实证检验，研究了行业竞争、政府政策、文化观念及潜在收益等因素对电子商务的采用行为的影响。结果发现．行业竞争、文化观念、潜在收益因素在不同经济环境下影     

农户采用新技术的行为差异、决策依据、获取途径分析——基于陕西、甘肃、宁夏的调查

通过对陕甘宁诸多村庄的调查,考察农户采用不同属性技术的行为特征和差异,并对农户采用技术的决策因素和技术获取条件进行了分析。研究发现,农户采用新技术的行为基本符合"理性小农"理论和"技术诱导"理论;技术属性的差异对农户采用新技术的行为具有显著的影响;投入成本、家庭经济水平、技术的风险情况是影响农户技术采用决策最重要的3种因素。此外,苹果种植户的决策受到家庭劳动力数量的影响较大,小麦种植户受"看其他人的选择或收益"的影响较大,节水灌溉农户受政府鼓励措施和技术难易程度的影响较大;农户对采用技术顾虑因素的认知具有一致性的特征。技术获取条件方面,农户了解技术信息以自发性和分散性的方式为主,专业性的技术信息供给渠道仅起到辅助的作用;农户参与培训的内容主要集中在生产技术方面。     

企业突破性技术持续采用意愿的驱动机制研究

整合组织动机和期望确认理论，从购买动机视角探讨企业突破性技术持续采用意愿的驱动机制。将购买动机分为效率动机、规范趋同动机和模仿趋同动机，阐述购买动机对突破性技术持续采用意愿影响的微观机理。以198家购买过云计算技术的企业为研究样本，实证检验购买动机与突破性技术持续采用意愿间的关系，并检验满意和认知锁定的中介效应。结果表明：购买动机正向影响突破性技术持续采用意愿，满意和认知锁定在购买动机与突破性技术持续采用意愿之间起中介作用，各购买动机的中介作用路径呈现差异化。其中，效率动机的作用路径被满意和认知锁定部分中介，模仿趋同动机的作用路径被满意部分中介，规范趋同动机的作用路径被认知锁定部分中介。研究结论打开了企业突破性技术持续采用意愿的“黑箱”，对于企业深入理解突破性技术持续采用意愿的驱动机制，促进突破性技术在持续采用过程中发挥真正价值具有重要借鉴意义。     

企业突破性技术持续采用意愿的驱动机制研究

整合组织动机和期望确认理论，从购买动机视角探讨企业突破性技术持续采用意愿的驱动机制。将购买动机分为效率动机、规范趋同动机和模仿趋同动机，阐述购买动机对突破性技术持续采用意愿影响的微观机理。以198家购买过云计算技术的企业为研究样本，实证检验购买动机与突破性技术持续采用意愿间的关系，并检验满意和认知锁定的中介效应。结果表明：购买动机正向影响突破性技术持续采用意愿，满意和认知锁定在购买动机与突破性技术持续采用意愿之间起中介作用，各购买动机的中介作用路径呈现差异化。其中，效率动机的作用路径被满意和认知锁定部分中介，模仿趋同动机的作用路径被满意部分中介，规范趋同动机的作用路径被认知锁定部分中介。研究结论打开了企业突破性技术持续采用意愿的“黑箱”，对于企业深入理解突破性技术持续采用意愿的驱动机制，促进突破性技术在持续采用过程中发挥真正价值具有重要借鉴意义。     

企业采用新技术的战略选择

就双寡头企业针对两个系列到达的技术采用战略进行了研究，指出企业间存在不完全信息，其成本函数是不对称的私有信息，考虑到技术本身所具有的路径依赖性和学习效用，企业对技术的选择不仅依赖于竞争对手的战略行为，而且也依赖于企业自身的技术能力。当技术能力许可时，企业应积极选择采用当前技术，并在新技术到来后进行升级；否则应选择等待新技术到来时直接采用更先进的技术。在可选择的技术采用战略之间存在一个成本系数的战略转移分割点，将其作为战略选择的关键考虑因素，可以合理估计竞争对手的技术采用战略，以此与企业自身技术能力比较，从而对企业采用新技术的战略进行决策。     

The Optimal Timing of Adoption of a Green Technology

We study the optimal timing of adoption of a cleaner technology and its effects on the rate of growth of an economy in the context of an AK endogenous growth model. We show that the results depend upon the behavior of the marginal utility of environmental quality with respect to consumption. When it is increasing, we derive the capital level at the optimal timing of adoption. We show that this capital threshold is independent of the initial conditions on the stock of capital, implying that capital-poor countries tend to take longer to adopt. Also, country-specific characteristics, as the existence of high barriers to adoption, may lead to different capital thresholds for different countries. If the marginal utility of environmental quality decreases with consumption, a country should never delay adoption; the optimal policy is either to adopt immediately or, if adoption costs are “too high”, to never adopt. The policy implications of these results are discussed in the context of the international debate surrounding the environmental political agenda.      

Duration analysis of adoption of drip irrigation technology in southeastern Spain

In this paper, the process of adopting drip irrigation technology is investigated in one of the more water-scarce irrigation communities in Spain during the period 1975-2005. Why some farmers are faster to adopt this technology is investigated using duration analysis, which allows the timing of an event to be explored in a dynamic framework. The relative influence of a range of farmer, farm, economic, technology and institutional determinants is explored using discrete time models. The empirical results highlight the importance of educational factors, technological trialability, credit availability and institutional factors such as water availability and price, information networks and policy factors, as well as systematic effects that influence the adoption decision over the lifetime of the producer and over the survey period.     

Technology diffusion and environmental regulation: the adoption of natural gas-fired combined cycle generating units

Even though environmental policy can affect the path of technology diffusion, the economics literature contains limited empirical evidence of this relationship. This paper provides insight into the technology adoption decisions of electric generating firms. Specifically, the diffusion of combined cycle (CC) generating units is examined. This technology is ‘environmentally friendly’ in that, it is cleaner and more efficient than alternative generating units. The empirical model explores the decision to adopt a CC generating unit and the extent to which the technology is adopted in response to environmental regulations imposed on producers. Zero-inflated models are used to evaluate adoption decisions at the plant-level as well as the firm-level. This research shows that environmental regulation has a significant effect on technology choice and the extent of adoption in this industry. Findings suggest that the stringency of regulations that control the building of new generating units is particularly influential for established power plants.     

吸收能力对新技术采纳时机的影响

本文通过引入吸收能力并假设潜在的新技术采纳厂商可以凭借吸收能力实现对购买技术的自我改进,构建了一个两时期的非对称双寡模型,研究了吸收能力对新技术采纳时机的影响。研究结论为:该双寡模型存在两种均衡,即分离均衡和混合均衡。在分离均衡中,吸收能力强的厂商倾向于作为跟随者延迟采纳新技术,而吸收能力弱的厂商作为领先者即时采纳可得的新技术。混合均衡的结果是抢先进入均衡或等待均衡。另外,外部知识的性质对于新技术的采纳也有重要影响。     

Cooperative membership and new technology adoption of family farms: Evidence from China

Various policies have been implemented to encourage the development of family farms and cooperatives in the past decade in China. New technology adoption is a crucial part in promoting the performance of family farms. However, empirical evidence on whether and how cooperatives would facilitate family farms to adopt new technologies remains unclear. To address the gap, this paper examines the impact of family farms’ cooperative membership on new technology adoption (i.e., new varieties, new machinery, new fertilizers, new pesticides, new pest control techniques, new production methods and new management methods). Using novel survey data from 848 family farms in China, and employing both propensity score matching approach and endogenous switching probit model, we find that for family farms, cooperative membership has positive and significant impacts on new technology adoption. When looking into different types of technology, we find that the impacts are larger on the adoption of new methods than new techniques. Moreover, the impacts are larger for family farms with lower operation income and smaller size. The findings provide important insights for policymakers tasked with promoting agricultural technology adoption.     

Bad Eggs,Learning-by-doing,and the Choice of Technology

We model long-run economic development through technology adoption under scientific uncertainty about environmental effects. There are four possible long-run equilibria in a socially planned economy: ‘High-growth’, adopt rapidly, but abandon damaging technologies once revealed (DDT, CFCs); ‘Cautious’, brake the introduction of new technologies to avoid mistakes (genetically modified organisms); ‘No-growth’, halt technological progress to preserve secondary knowledge; and ‘Collapse’, adopt rapidly without ever abandoning damaging technologies. In the base parameterization a short-sighted social planner chooses the cautious strategy. A far-sighted planner chooses the high-growth strategy, unless damages are irreversible in which case the cautious strategy again dominates. Regulatory options in the market economy are investigated. Pollution taxes do not affect the firm’s level of precaution if they can only be applied after the adopting firm has reaped the benefits; however, they do encourage the abandonment of damaging technologies. Liability rules do affect precaution, but may lead to excessive caution, or even a no-growth trap.     

Can government improve tax compliance by adopting advanced information technology? Evidence from the Golden Tax Project III in China

This paper explores the tax compliance effects of adopting advanced information technology by tax bureau. Although many governments adopt advanced information technology in tax collection, little is known about the effect on tax compliance. Using difference-in-differences method, we exploit a staggered reform in which tax authorities adopt a comprehensive information reporting system in China, the Golden Tax Project III. Employing listed firm level data from 2010 to 2017, using book-tax difference and its remaining component which cannot be explained by earnings management as proxy measures of tax sheltering, we find that the adoption of GTP III decreases tax sheltering levels by a 1.88 percentage point. The effect is stronger for companies with higher tax rate. By exploring channels, our results suggest that the effect works by enhancing third-party reporting and by improving tax enforcement capacity in provinces that lack tax inspectors.     

The Determinants Of The Adoption Of Advanced Manufacturing Technology

The paper investigates empirically the decision of firms to adopt ‘Advanced Manufacturing Technologies’ (AMT) based on a comprehensive specification of a ‘rank model’ of technology adoption using firm-level data for Swiss manufacturing. The explanatory variables include numerous dimensions of (anticipated) benefits from and costs of technology adoption allowing for uncertainty as well as for information and adjustment costs. Moreover, the effect of complementarities between various functional groups of AMT (design, fabrication, communication, etc.) as well as of learning from the use of previous technology vintages within such functional groups is analyzed, Finally, the size-dependence of the adoption decision is studied in detail. The model yields a quite robust pattern of explanation across estimates with different adoption variables (time period of introduction of AMT, intensity of use of AMT, etc.) with plausible differences of the results based on the alternative adoption measures used.     

The adoption of new technology by the farmers in Taiwan

This study addresses the technologies the farmers adopted, their reasons for adopting these technologies and the result of adopting these technologies. The design and strategy used to collect the data needed are both qualitative and quantitative. Farmers who practised traditional farming methods and those who adopted the new technologies were both given survey questionnaires and were interviewed.

The result of the study shows that the technologies applied by the farmers are the use of tractors in tilling the ground, the use of machinery in planting, the practice of irrigation and the use of a combination of organic and commercial fertilizers. The reasons for the adoption of the latter are the availability of chemicals and the convenience of their use, and this is used to enhance the growth of plants. The results of the new technology adoption are high yields of produce, production of hybrid crops, and the saving of labour, thus increasing the income of the farmers.