Quote activity and round quotes in a voice-brokered bond market

We investigate the relation between quote activity and the precision with which prices are quoted. Where prior literature finds that the tendency of price-endings to cluster on rounder fractions declines monotonically with quote activity, we show that the decline is limited to an initial range of quote activity. Once a very high level of quote activity is reached, the use of rounder quotes increases with quote activity. Also contrary to the conventional view is our finding that round quotes are used more frequently in the more active of two market segments where equivalent assets are traded. We attribute our results to two opposing influences of activity on price clustering, the price resolution and negotiation effects, that reflect the cognitive limitations of humans when dealing with uncertain values.     

国内外煤炭价格波动特征分析——基于GARCH模型

利用2005—2011年的澳洲BJ动力煤价格和秦皇岛大同优混煤(>6000大卡)价格的时间序列数据,采用GARCH模型分析方法,实证检验了澳洲BJ动力煤价格和秦皇岛大同优混煤(>6000大卡)价格的波动性特征。研究结果表明,澳洲BJ动力煤价格和秦皇岛大同优混煤(>6000大卡)价格表现出相同的市场特性,具有显著的GARCH效应与波动聚集性,波动衰减缓慢,不具有显著的非对称性波动。最后提出了相应的对策与建议。     

Intraday market effects in electronic soybean futures market during non-trading and trading hour announcements

This article investigates market reactions to major United States Department of Agriculture announcements during non-trading and trading hours in the soybean futures market using microstructure data. Following report release, volume increases and remains elevated for up to 15 to 20 minutes. The volume spikes for the non-trading releases relative to the trading releases, but are identical after the first reaction. Report releases during non-trading hours cause a large spike in volatility at the onset of trading which subsides quickly. In contrast, releases during trading hours result in a smaller volatility spike, which extends for 5–6 min at a higher magnitude. Adjusting volatility by normal trading volatility indicates that volatility in trading hour release is higher in both immediate response and persistence. Return correlations provide little evidence to support systematic under- or overreaction in prices regardless of when the report is released reflecting the efficiency of the market.     

我国畜产品价格波动分析——基于ARCH类模型

运用ARCH类模型对我国主要畜产品的价格波动率进行了分析。结果表明:牛肉、羊肉和鸡肉的价格波动具有显著的波动积聚性,鸡蛋价格波动没有显著的异方差效应;除牛肉市场外,羊肉和鸡肉市场不具有高风险、高回报的特征;猪肉、牛肉、羊肉和鸡肉的价格波动没有非对称性。认为应在畜产品市场出现大的价格波动时及时采取平抑措施,且政府需规范畜产品市场秩序、完善畜产品市场制度。     

Effects of a price limit change on market stability at the intraday horizon in the Korean stock market

This article investigates the effects of a price limit change on the volatility of the Korean stock market’s (KRX) intraday stock price process. Based on the most recent transaction data from the KRX, which experienced a change in the price limit on 15 June 2015, we examine the change in realized variance after the price limit change to investigate the overall effects of the change on the intraday market volatility. We then analyse the effects in more detail by applying the discrete Fourier transform to the data set. We find evidence that the market becomes more volatile in the intraday horizon because of the increase in the amplitudes of the low-frequency components of the price processes after the price limit change. Therefore, liquidity providers are in a worse situation than they were prior to the change.     

我国粮食市场价格波动特征——基于ARCH类模型的实证分析

基于1998年1月9日至2012年12月14日全国小麦、玉米和大豆的批发价格指数周数据,利用ARCH类模型对我国小麦、玉米和大豆的市场价格波动特征进行实证分析。研究结果表明:在5%的显著性水平下,小麦、玉米和大豆的市场价格波动具有明显的时变性和集簇性;玉米市场具有高风险、高回报的特征;小麦的市场价格波动具有非对称性;玉米市场与大豆市场之间存在显著的双向价格波动溢出效应。     

期货市场与现货市场之间的价格研究--中国农产品市场的经验

本文借助于信息共享模型与波动溢出效应模型对我国大豆和小麦的期、现货市场之间的价格发现进行了多层次的实证研究,定量描述了期、现货市场在价格发现中作用的大小,深入刻画了我国农产品期、现货市场之间的动态关系.研究结果显示:大豆期、现货价格之间存在双向引导关系,小麦仅存在期货对现货的单向引导关系;期、现货市场均扮演着重要的价格发现角色,且期货市场在价格发现中处于主导地位;期、现货市场之间均存在双向波动溢出关系,但现货市场来自期货市场的波动溢出效应均强于期货市场来自现货市场的波动溢出效应;并且,随着期货市场的发展,期、现货市场之间的波动溢出程度均呈逐渐增强态势.     

中国公司债券交易量与价格波动的关系

使用中国沪深证券交易所的公司债数据,检验了债券交易量与价格波动的线性关系和非线性尾部相关性,分析了债券流动性水平对量价关系的影响,研究了债券量价关系的时变特征。结果表明:中国公司债市场中债券交易量与价格波动之间存在显著的线性关系;债券流动性水平对量价关系有显著影响,债券流动性水平越高(低),则量价关系越弱(强);债券交易量与价格波动存在非对称的下尾相关性;债券量价关系具有时变性,市场低风险时期量价关系较弱,市场高风险时期量价关系较强。     

Financial market segmentation,stock market volatility and the role of monetary policy

We study a segmented financial markets model where only the agents who trade stocks encounter financial income risk. In such an economy, the welfare-maximizing monetary policy attains the novel role of redistributing the traders' financial market risk among all agents in the economy. In order to do that, optimal monetary policy reacts to financial market movements; it is expansionary in bad times for the financial markets and contractionary in good ones. In our quantitative exercise, a dividend shock generates different policy responses and consumption paths among the optimal and the 2% inflation targeting policy. The latter implies large distributional welfare losses and risk sharing losses of similar magnitude with those generated by business cycle fluctuations. In addition, the optimal monetary policy does not minimize stock price volatility and implies lower inflation volatility than other commonly used policies.     

Financial leverage and market volatility with diverse beliefs

We study a general equilibrium model of asset trading with financial leverage, where the investors can engage in speculative trading with diverse beliefs about the asset??s fundamental value. We show that an increase in the leverage ratio causes the stock price to rise in the current period through a ??leverage effect??, and will result in more borrowing and more stock purchase that pumps the stock price higher in the subsequent period, known as the ??pyramiding effect??. There can also be a ??depyramiding effect?? when the price falls because lenders issue margin calls and force stock sales, contributing to further stock price plummeting. Price changes from depyramiding effect, however, may not take effect when margin calls are not triggered. We demonstrate that, under certain conditions, decreasing leverage ratios leads to lower stock price volatility, measured by the variation of prices caused by an exogenous shock, when the shock is unanticipated. The influences of dispersion of beliefs and available investment funds on the relation between financial leverage and market volatility are also examined. When the shock is anticipated, we demonstrate that reducing leverage ratios may not lower stock price volatility, which poses an important challenge to future studies on this issue.     

Momentum or market? Determinants of large stock price changes in an emerging market

The aim of this study is to investigate the determinants of large price changes in Turkey. We also provide additional evidence on determinants of large price changes in different macroeconomic environments, specifically on the pre-crisis and post-crisis periods. Using recurrent event analysis with stratified observations and frailty effects, our findings suggest that momentum has a significant impact on large price changes during both pre-crisis and post-crisis periods. However, the impact of market is more significant on the estimation of large price declines in the pre-crisis period and of large price increases in the post-crisis period. Additional findings suggest that liquidity and market-to-book ratio have positive, firm size has a negative impact on likelihood of large price changes regardless of the direction of the stock price change and macroeconomic environment. Findings of this study provide new insights into the understanding of large price changes in an emerging market.     

Market stability switches in a continuous-time financial market with heterogeneous beliefs

By considering a financial market of fundamentalists and trend followers in which the price trend of trend followers is formed as a weighted average of historical prices, we establish a continuous-time financial market model with time delay and examine the impact of time delay on market price dynamics. Conditions for the stability of the fundamental price in terms of agents' behavior parameters and time delay are obtained. In particular, it is found that an increase in time delay can not only destabilize the market price but also stabilize an otherwise unstable market price, leading to stability switching as delay increases. These interesting phenomena shed new light in understanding of mechanism on the market stability. When the fundamental price becomes unstable through Hopf bifurcations, sufficient conditions on the stability and global existence of the periodic solution are obtained.     

碳排放权交易市场的信息流动关系——基于EUA市场和CER市场的实证研究

基于Granger因果关系检验方法和MGARCH-BEKK模型,从报酬溢出和波动溢出的角度,研究国际碳排放权交易市场中的主要商品———EUAs和sCERs各自的期货价格与现货价格之间以及两者的期货价格之间的信息流动关系。结果表明:两个市场的现货市场始终都处于价格信息中心,期货市场的价格发现功能较弱甚至未体现;信息波动溢出方面,EUA市场中期货市场处于波动信息中心,而CER市场中现货市场处于波动信息中心;EUA的期货市场与CER的期货市场之间存在相互的价格溢出效应与波动溢出效应,但EUA市场的期货价格对CER市场具有更大的波动溢出效应。     

Analysis of price competition and strategic implications for heterogeneous market structure

This paper examines strategic competition behavior in heterogeneous market structure where both conventional offline and online firms coexist in equilibrium and draws strategic implications with some remarks on welfare. Research on the price competition between conventional offline and online firms has been done through empirical approaches; however, the results are conflicting. This paper reconciles the existing conflicting empirical findings on price levels between conventional offline and online firms through a theoretical approach. We find that as the online market matures, prices in both conventional and online firms drop, and the price in the online firm can be higher than that in a conventional offline firm. Furthermore, if convenience associated with the online increases, the online price tends to exceed the conventional offline price.     

Responses of international stock markets to oil price surges: a regime-switching perspective

We propose an enhanced regime-switching model to investigate the relationships between oil price surges and stock market cycles in five oil-dependent countries. Our model accounts for the joint effects of the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent oil markets and simultaneously captures asymmetry, volatility persistence and regime shifts contained in the underlying financial data. We find that stock market returns strongly exhibit a regime-switching behaviour, but they react differently to the increases in the price of oil. More precisely, the conditional volatility of studied stock markets during the bear market phases is found to be less affected by oil price surges than during the bull market phases. Whether the effects of oil shocks are positive or negative depends greatly on the degree of reliance on imported oil, the share of the cost of oil in the national income and the degree of improvement in energy efficiency of a given country. Finally, the relatively opposite effects of the WTI and Brent oil markets suggest the potential of substitution between them as well as the necessity of a diversification strategy of oil supply sources.     

Equity market valuation,systematic risk and monetary policy

This study examines the relationship between equity market valuation and risk indicators that portend economic downswings. The indicators are implied options volatility, Treasury-Eurodollar (TED) spread and exchange rate. While implied volatility captures market risk in that it reflects the fear factor embedded in the price of an option, TED spread reflects the default risk premium that is priced into a key short-term credit instrument. Equity markets often show a tendency to reflect the incidence of these risk factors. And because they provide valuable information about the health of the economy, many have argued that equity market valuation be taken into account in the formulation of monetary policy. Results of this study not only show a statistically significant inverse relationship between the stock market and these risk factors, but also evidence of a cointegration. In a variance decomposition of the series, we find that equity valuation is a major contributor to the forecast error variances of each of the risk indicators, a finding that lends tacit support to the argument that risk indicators associated with the equity market be considered in monetary policy decisions.     

Some stylized facts of the cryptocurrency market

We examine the stylized facts of eight forms of cryptocurrencies representing almost 70% of cryptocurrency market capitalization. In particular, the empirical results show that (1) there exists heavy tails for all the returns of cryptocurrencies; (2) the autocorrelations for returns decay quickly, while the autocorrelations for absolute returns decay slowly; (3) returns of cryptocurrencies display strong volatility clustering and leverage effects; (4) Hurst exponent for volatility is more volatile than that of the returns, while they all suggest the long-range dependence phenomena; and (5) there exists power-law correlation between price and volume.     

Derivative securities and cash market stability

This study investigates the effect of introducing interest-rate futures and options on the price variances in related financial cash markets. Standard research approaches to this issue relate cash-price stability before the introduction of futures and options trading to cash-price stability after trading in the derivative security begins. However, controlling for the additional factors that may also effect cash markets is difficult. The approach employed here to deal with this obstacle is motivated by recent theoretical research relating cash and futures markets, but hitherto not operationalized to empirically test for a relationship between the markets. Varying-parameter models of (1) the demand for short-term Treasury securities, (2) the demand for large time-deposits, and (3) the supply of large time-deposits are specified such that changes in the parameters imply changes in the volatility of the cash price. These parameters are modelled as functions of the trading volume of interest-rate futures and options, thereby enabling a direct test of the hypothesis that trading volume in these derivative securities influences the behaviour of cash-market participants, and therefore, cash-price volatility. We find no convincing evidence that the level of activity in interest-rate futures and options has a significant effect on these cash markets.     

Modelling the spreading process of extreme risks via a simple agent-based model: Evidence from the China stock market

This paper focuses on investigating financial asset returns' extreme risks, which are defined as the negative log-returns over a certain threshold. A simple agent-based model is constructed to explain the behavior of the market traders when extreme risks occur. We consider both the volatility clustering and the heavy tail characteristics when constructing the model. Empirical study uses the China securities index 300 daily level data and applies the method of simulated moments to estimate the model parameters. The stationarity and ergodicity tests provide evidence that the proposed model is good for estimation and prediction. The goodness-of-fit measures show that our proposed model fits the empirical data well. Our estimated model performs well in out-of-sample Value-at-Risk prediction, which contributes to the risk management.