Growth and the Current Account in a Small Open Economy

The authors provide a framework with which to analyze growth in a small economy with perfect capital mobility. The framework provides a diagrammatic representation of steady states that differs in interesting and important ways from the usual closed-economy Solow-Swan diagram. The authors use the key diagrams to illustrate the effects of changes in parameters such as the saving rate and productivity growth on steady-state values of macroeconomic aggregates. They compare the steady-state results for the open economy with those obtained using the more familiar closed-economy model. They illustrate the possibility of endogenous income growth.     

A diffusion model with application to evolving medical technologies

This paper reports on a system dynamics simulation model which was developed to study the diffusion of medical technologies but which should be applicable to other sorts of technologies as well. The model addresses both the adoption and the changing extent of use of an evolving, product-based technology and also endogenously accounts for changes in actual and perceived performance. Two specific medical case studies provide background to the model and are used for testing the model's ability to reproduce various aspects of historical behavior. The model's relatively complex structure is presented in the form of influence diagrams showing major flows and relationships. The paper concludes with a discussion of contributions and possible future uses and modifications of the model.     

Technological upgrading and energy demand scenarios for Indian railways—A system dynamics study

This paper presents a system dynamics model of the Indian railway system and generates probable scenarios of its performance up to the year 2011. The basic structure of the model, the relationships between the interacting variables, and the generic flow diagrams used for developing the model are discussed in detail. In generating the scenarios, probable changes in the railway system and in the national socioeconomic environment in which it works are considered. In particular, introduction of technological innovations in the railways and their impact on railway energy demand are examined in detail.     

THE SIMPLE ANALYTICS OF IMPLICIT LABOUR CONTRACTS

This paper outlines the development and exposits some of the central ideas of implicit contract theory using only basic mathematics (mainly Lagrangeans) and diagrams.     

Why is TFP growth sectorally concentrated?

Research shows that total factor productivity (TFP) growth is weak in European countries. This is inter alia attributed to the fact that substantial TFP growth is limited to a few industries. Because TFP growth is typically understood as technological progress, it is concluded that technology diffusion between sectors in Europe is hampered. We use EU KLEMS data sets to decompose sectoral TFP for nine European countries by means of a Malmquist approach in order to identify potential sources besides technical progress. Applying Harberger diagrams, we describe the sectoral distribution of TFP growth, efficiency gains and losses, economies of scale and technological progress. The analysis reveals that technological progress is quite evenly distributed across sectors in most European countries. The wide scattering of TFP growth is explained by deviating efficiency developments and the unused economies of scale. We conclude that the technology transfer between sectors in most European countries seems to work. Therefore, Europe in general does not need a new technology policy, but a further integration of the markets and a reduction of national market entry barriers. This requires further unification of pan-European standards in fields like trade and crafts codes or consumer protection policies.     

From Bastiat's circumference to Knight's wheel: a newly discovered letter of Mr Sherlock Holmes to Dr Watson *

This paper continues the investigation of the antecedents of the Wheel of Wealth, initiated by Don Patinkin as a by-product of his 1973 memoir of Frank Knight. A series of partly chance leads pointed to Bastiat as the earliest author to have employed circle or wheel diagram in an associated context, and one with whose writings most later users of it were acquainted. Although Patinkin mistakenly concluded that late-nineteenth century Contitental European literature completely eschewed diagrams, he was right in hypothesizing the wheel diagram to have originated outside the main stream of economic thought.     

Unskilled Labor Migration and Capital Mobility: A Diagrammatic Exposition

Conclusions about the effects of out-migration of unskilled labor on a country's wage rates and capital flows are illustrated with accessible diagrams. This article is of particular value in courses in international trade, economic development, and regional economics.     

Trade,Migration, and Inequality in a World without Factor Price Equalization

The behavior of trading economies in the absence of factor price equalization is not well understood, although empirical evidence against factor price equalization is overwhelming. We map regions of diversification and specialization for competitive world economies with different factor endowment partitions. Goods and factor price responses as economies move within and across different regions of specialization are explored using a series of novel diagrams. The usefulness of endogenizing patterns of specialization is illustrated by considering the impact on inequality of migration flows (such as US–Mexico), the substitutability of trade and migration, and the impact of the entry of a large unskilled labor‐intensive economy (such as China) on factor prices and factor flows.     

科技成果产业化目标市场评估与选择模型研究

在分析国内外目标市场评估与选择理论研究现状及其存在问题的基础上,构建了基于系统动力学(SD)的目标市场评估与选择过程控制模型;明确了科技成果产业化目标市场评估系统边界,并采用战略环境评估方法,从宏观环境支持程度、产业环境威胁力及内部资源条件满足程度等方面识别出24个营销绩效影响因素,形成了SD模型的基准变量;然后构建了科技成果产业化目标市场发展提升过程因果关系图、流图、量化分析方程,形成了SD系统结构模型,刻画出影响因素与科技成果产业化营销绩效的动态反馈规律;最后结合某高分子材料类科技成果产业化实际,对其目标市场评估SD模型进行了vensim软件模拟,并基于目标市场发展水平及稳定性模拟结果,提出了科技成果产业化目标市场选择方案,为高等院校和科研院所科技成果产业化目标市场评估与选择提供借鉴。     

城市土地利用研究—以广西梧州市为例

以广西梧州市为例,运用城市土地利用的相关理论,在分析了梧州市土地利用现状的基础上,提出了梧州市城市土地利用的合理规模和布局调整。对合理利用土地,控制城市用地规模,提高城市土地利用效率具有较好的理论和实践意义。     

Internal and external balance in a centrally planned economy

This paper presents a model of an open centrally planned economy. In a framework that allows disequilibrium and (informal) quantity rationing, we seek to represent both the effects of domestic macroeconomic processes on trade flows and the effects on domestic macro variables of foreign-sector phenomena. We investigate the adjustment of the system to exogenous shocks and the policy trade-offs facing the planners, using a diagrammatic apparatus analogous to the Swan and Mundell diagrams for an open developed market economy. The model is also intended to serve as a basis for specification of empirical models of the macroeconomic aspects of foreign trade in centrally planned economies.     

OPEC behaviour and the price of petroleum

I thank Ernst Mohr and Horst Siebert for discussing earlier versions of the paper with me, and Susanne Krebs and Frank Schulz for carefully drawing the diagrams. Suggestions by three anonymous referees helped improve the paper. The usual disclaimer applies. Financial support by Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (SFB 178) is gratefully acknowledged.     

Border collision bifurcations in boom and bust cycles

Boom and bust cycles are widely documented in the literature on industry dynamics. Rigidities and delays in capacity adjustment in combination with bounded rational behavior have been identified as central driving forces. We construct a model that features only these two elements and we show that this is indeed sufficient to reproduce some stylized facts of a boom and bust cycle. The bifurcation diagrams summarizing the dynamic behavior reveal complex cycles and in particular also abrupt changes in the nature of these cycles. We apply new insights from the mathematical theory of piecewise smooth dynamic systems—in particular, results from the theory of border collision bifurcations—and show that the very existence of borders such as capacity constraints or nonnegativity constraints may lie behind abrupt changes in the dynamic behavior of economic variables.     

On a master-slave Bertrand game model

A master-slave Bertrand game model is proposed for upstream and downstream monopolies owned by different parties, in which the upstream monopolist's output is used as the main factor of production by the downstream monopolist who is a small purchaser of the upstream monopolist's output. The bifurcation of the Bertrand-Nash equilibrium is analyzed with Schwarzian derivative. Numerical simulations are employed to show the model's complex dynamics by means of the largest Lyapunov exponents (LLEs), bifurcation, time series diagrams and phase portraits. With the modified straight-line stabilization method, chaos control is used to improve the aggregate profits of the two oligopolists. Lastly the welfare impacts of price fluctuations and chaos controls are briefly discussed.     

Some probability problems associated with cross-impact analysis

Various probability models are discussed which may be applied to Cross-Impact analysis. The bulk of this article is concerned with what is currently the most commonly employed model that utilizes marginal probabilities and either simple conditional probabilities or ”impacts“. Requirements for admissible probability sets are given and some misgivings about current practices are discussed. Bounds are given for the joint occurrence or non-occurrence of a number of events which could replace the Monte Carlo generation currently in use. It is concluded that the multitude of probability problems associated with Cross-Impact analysis are such as to preclude its use as a quantitative technique in its present form although its use as a vehicle for promoting discussion can still be recommended and some of the results can serve as a rough guide in forecasting.     

Labour's reward across regions of the EU: a distributional dynamic approach

A large number of empirical studies have tested for the presence of convergence for a variety of economic variables. This paper examines the evolution of labour's reward across regions of the EU to identify whether factor price convergence has occurred. Density diagrams are used to illustrate static distributions while transitional matrices are employed to identify movements of the distribution over time. The results presented suggest that the evolutionary paths of average regional pay are fairly stable with stratification and persistence identified as important characteristics. There was uninterrupted convergence of average regional pay between 1980–1992. However, between 1992–1994 this process reversed.     

Economics and Programmed Instruction

An examination of programmed instruction indicates that it is as effective as the lecture-discussion technique for teaching economics when measured by student examination performance. Evidence indicates that PI students better retain information applicable to solving complex application questions than those exposed to traditional instruction. PI saves student and instructor time, yet the growth of its use has diminished. Vredeveld examines the principles and development of PI, its effectiveness, and the economic reasons inhibiting its use in colleges and universities.     

Trade policy in the face of price and non-price strategies

When selling their products domestically or internationally, firms rely on more than just price as a strategic variable. They also rely on non-price instruments such as advertising and/or R&D investments. Any trade policy that affects or limits the use of one variable will likely have strategic consequences for the use of all the others. Using a Hotelling model with vertical differentiation we focus on how trade policy barriers alter price and non-price competition on the goods market. The main results are as follows: first, no matter whether the trade restriction (tariff) is placed on the non-price instrument or on the good itself, the foreign (domestic) firm prefers to increase (decrease) its use of its pricing tool and give up some of (increase) its use of the non-price instrument. Second, in the presence of a non-price instrument, tariffs do not always lead both firms to increase their price: it can lead the foreign firm to decrease its (final) price.     

组织成员的相互学习对组织知识的影响

基于March的相互学习模型,分两种情况——组织成员的学习速率相同和不同,分析了封闭环境下组织成员的学习速率对组织知识的影响,绘制了学习速率与均衡知识的关系图,并阐述了组织结构对组织知识的作用。结果显示:组织成员的学习速率慢而领导的学习速率快的组织得到的知识最多;成员学习速率不同的混合组织得到的知识比成员学习速率相同的组织要多;二层管理模式的组织比一层管理模式的组织得到的知识要多。     

韩国的土地利用规划体系和农村综合开发规划

韩国的土地国情和农业经营特点与我国十分相似。文章分析了韩国土地利用规划体系的构成及其主要特点,以及在农村综合开发和农村城市化过程中的作用。最后简要论述了乡村土地利用规划在中国国土规划中的重要性和迫切性,希望能为我国的农村综合开发和城镇化发展提供一些借鉴。