Changes in the fiscal stance and the composition of public spending

We consider the impact of both cyclical and structural changes in the fiscal stance on public spending composition for a panel of EU countries, including individual components of public investment. We find that both cyclically induced and structural changes in the fiscal stance affect the composition of public spending, with fiscal tightening of both types increasing the relative share of investment and loosening favouring consumption expenditure. Of the components of public investment, infrastructure and redistribution respond to cyclical changes in the fiscal stance, while investment in hospitals and schools responds most clearly to structural changes.     

Business Cycle Asymmetries and Nonlinearity in UAE Macroeconomic Time Series

This study investigates the dynamic behaviour of macroeconomic time series variables of the United Arab Emirates. We first examined whether there are non‐Gaussian characteristics associated with the macroeconomic variables of the United Arab Emirates. Through application of the BDS nonlinearity test, our results indicated that there is a substantial nonlinear dependence in the data set for all the variables. We also assessed the asymmetric behaviour of these variables by exploring whether they exhibit two particular forms of asymmetry, which are deepness and steepness asymmetries. These results have shown that there is no empirical evidence of business cycle asymmetry in all the variables at any conventional level of significance in the sample period. Also, through application of further robust testing, our findings indicate the presence of pro‐cyclical asymmetry in some of the variables and at the same time indicate the presence of asymmetries in the volatility.     

Fiscal illusion and the demand for government expenditures in the UK

This paper examines whether variables commonly used to test standard fiscal illusion arguments (that tax structure affects voters' demands for public goods) can help explain the time-series behaviour of government expenditure in the UK during 1955–1994. We modify a standard median voter model to incorporate fiscal illusion via ‘less visible' (indirect) taxes and deficit financing. While we find evidence that both are positively associated with increased government spending, this would appear to be consistent with both fiscal illusion and standard efficiency arguments.     

Financial distress and fiscal inflation

Is inflation ‘always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon’ or is it fundamentally a fiscal phenomenon? The answer hinges crucially on the underlying monetary–fiscal policy regime. Scant attention has been directed to the role of credit market frictions in discerning the policy regime, despite its growing importance in empirical macroeconomics. We augment a standard monetary model to incorporate fiscal details and credit market imperfections. These ingredients allow for both interpretations of the inflation process in a financially constrained environment. We find that introducing financial frictions to the model and adding financial variables to the dataset generate important identifying restrictions on the observed pattern between inflation and measures of financial and fiscal stress, to the extent that it overturns existing findings about which monetary–fiscal policy regime produced the U.S. data. To confront policy regime uncertainty, we propose the use of dynamic prediction pools and find strong cyclical patterns in the estimated historical regime weights.     

Provincial business cycles and fiscal policy in China

We characterize the cyclical properties of fiscal policy in China along two related dimensions. First, we estimate the sign and size of the fiscal policy multiplier. Second, we assess whether fiscal policy is conducted pro‐ or counter‐cyclically. To account for the challenges posed by China's vast geography, we use data at the provincial level. We find that (i) fiscal policy generally has ‘Keynesian’ effects, and (ii) fiscal policy is mostly conducted pro‐cyclically. This means that fiscal policy is more an element of destabilization than a tool for stabilization.     

This time truly is different: The cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy during the Covid-19 crisis

Fiscal policy was more countercyclical during the Covid-19 crisis than in previous (crisis) episodes. This paper presents empirical evidence in favour of a “this time truly is different” moment based on analysing the cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy for 28 advanced economies over 1995–2021. Discretionary fiscal policy during the Covid-19 crisis (2020–2021) did more to counteract the downturn – especially in the Eurozone –, as we do not find comparable evidence for countercyclicality during the financial crisis or Euro crisis. Automatic fiscal stabilisers, the non-discretionary domain of fiscal policy, significantly contributed to countercyclical stabilisation during the pandemic.     

Investigating heterogeneity in European fiscal behaviours

The aim of this paper is to analyse the heterogeneity in fiscal behaviours in the euro zone. The fiscal behaviours are analysed according to a new specification in which the cyclically adjusted primary balance reacts to the change in the output gap, the public debt ratio, the inflation rate and the interest rate. Our study covers 12 countries in the euro zone during 1999–2010 using annual data from the AMECO database. We use the quantile regression methodology to test the fiscal rule. Our findings show the persistence in fiscal behaviour and counter‐cyclical fiscal policy. The results also show that fiscal responses differ according to the chosen quantile. In particular, a high fiscal indicator is associated with a debt‐stabilisation motive and concern about inflation. A shock analysis indicates how the fiscal dispersion could be changed according to the nature of the shock. The results of this paper are useful for understanding fiscal coordination and for improving the European fiscal framework.     

中国居民消费决定中的财政分权因素

本文首次建立引入财政分权因素的跨期消费资产定价模型,证明中国财政分权是居民消费决定中的关键因素:一方面,分权程度提高会带来居民收入增长,进而促进消费的增加;另一方面,分权程度提高会导致居民收入不确定性的增强,进而引起消费的下降。基于中国29个省区1990-2009年面板数据的实证研究验证了理论模型的判断。研究发现:预期收入水平和收入不确定性同时受财政分权因素影响,当它们共同进入模型时,只有预期收入水平系数显著为正,收入不确定性变量系数显著水平不稳定且符号不符合预期。无论引入控制变量,还是调整变量度量指标,研究结论都是稳健的。缺失财政分权因素的消费资产定价模型对于中国情况缺乏解释力,融入财政分权因素的模型则较好地拟合中国实际。     

On the Cyclicality of Public Finances in Europe

Under EMU, monetary policy is oriented toward the euro area as a whole and fiscal policy is an important instrument remaining in the hands of national governments to cushion economic shocks to individual countries. The current paper analyses the cyclical pattern of public finances in Europe and addresses the question of whether fiscal policies have been geared towards this stabilising role. Although taxes fluctuate countercyclically in a conventional manner, we find that discretionary measures have tended to undermine automatic stabilisers. On the expenditure side, we find that public investment also displays a consistent procyclical pattern. Dynamic analysis reveals that a permanent shock to output induces asynchronous fluctuations in taxes and expenditures in the year of the shock and in periods thereafter. Finally, we examine political and institutional factors. The political fragmentation of the government as well as the partisan hue of the government do not interfere with the cyclical response of public finances, but we do find evidence of a pronounced electoral cycle.     

The Natural Rate of Unemployment in Australia: Estimates From a Structural Var

The concept of the natural rate of unemployment is widely used in the analysis and discussion of macroeconomic policy. It is, however, unobservable so that estimates of the natural rate are necessarily based on a particular theory of unemployment. Hence, measures of the natural rate, whether constant or time-varying, are necessarily model-dependent. Various series based on specific models have recently become available for Australia. We set out to compute a series for the natural rate based on a minimal theoretical structure captured by a two-variable structural vector-autoregressive (SVAR) model estimated using quarterly Australian data for the period 1978–1997. We assess the robustness of our estimates by varying both the theoretical restriction imposed on the model and the two variables included in the model. We find that the computed natural rate is quite sensitive to model specification, both in terms of the level and of the cyclical behaviour of the natural rate. We argue, however, that a particular variant of our model is strongly preferred to the others investigated. It produces an estimates natural rate series the behaviour of which is broadly consistent with that of series produced by others from more restrictive models.     

Market power and fiscal policy in OECD countries

We compute average markups as a measure of market power throughout time and study their interaction with fiscal policy and macroeconomic variables in a VAR framework. From impulse-response functions, the results, with annual data for a set of 14 OECD countries, show that the markup (i) depicts a pro-cyclical behaviour with productivity shocks and (ii) a counter-cyclical behaviour with fiscal spending shocks. We also use a PVAR, increasing the efficiency in the estimations, which confirms the country-specific results.     

Cyclicality of fiscal policy and the shadow economy

A survey of recent literature on cyclical properties of fiscal policy reveals that fiscal policy is procyclical in many developing countries whereas it is countercyclical in developed ones. However, there is no consensus on what drives the difference in this specific cyclical property of fiscal policy. Using cross-section and panel data sets for 78 countries we document that procyclicality of fiscal policy is more pronounced in countries with a larger size of the shadow economy. We also show that policies reducing the size of the shadow economy lead to a less (more) procyclical (countercyclical) fiscal response to shocks.     

Planning to cheat: EU fiscal policy in real time

Using real-time data from Europe's Stability and Convergence Programs, we explore how fiscal plans and their implementation in the EU are determined. We find that (1) implemented budgetary adjustment falls systematically short of planned adjustment and this shortfall increases with the projection horizon, (2) variability in the eventual fiscal outcomes is dominated by the implementation errors, (3) there is a limited role for 'traditional' political variables, (4) stock-flow adjustments are more important when plans are more ambitious, and (5), most importantly, both the ambition in fiscal plans and their implementation benefit from stronger national fiscal institutions. We emphasize also the importance of credible plans for the eventual fiscal outcomes .
--- Roel Beetsma, Massimo Giuliodori and Peter Wierts     

Changes in behaviour under EMU

Using a simple model of the euro area economy, we explore whether EMU has been associated with changes in behaviour both in the run up to Stage 3 and since it started operating. We find that some behaviour has indeed changed; expectations formation, inflation, country dispersion of behaviour, fiscal policy (although the run up to Stage 3 shows a greater change than within it) and monetary policy (with several caveats). However, EMU does not appear to be associated with changes in the labour markets; employment, output growth and productivity. Substantial caution is needed in attributing these changes to EMU as much of the rest of OECD enjoyed similar changes over the same period.     

Testing the Robustness of Public Spending Determinants on Public Spending Decisions in Nigeria

This study tests the robustness of variables used in determining public spending in Nigeria from 1970 to 2016. This is achieved through the simultaneous use of a symmetric and asymmetric ARDL and Toda–Yamamoto causality procedures. The empirical findings reveal sufficient evidence of asymmetry in the behaviour of policy variables such as oil price, inflation rate, and the exchange rate. Hence, the conclusion that asymmetry significantly exists in key variables, used by Nigerian fiscal authorities for spending decision-making. Also, the asymmetric Toda–Yamamoto causality result reveals that increase in oil price, depreciation in the Naira value, and government revenue are the key determinants of public spending. Hence, the revenue-spend hypothesis. It is recommended that the re-investment of surplus proceeds from oil receipts should be given much priority. Specifically, the re-investment of such revenues into sectors such as manufacturing, construction, and information technology, will speed-up the diversification process of the revenue base; and sufficiently reduce the negative effects a decline in the oil price, and the Naira exchange rate will have on public spending. The policy of inflation targeting by the monetary authority should be sustained to check unwarranted inflationary trajectory; which may have an adverse effect on public spending value.     

Toward a Taylor rule for fiscal policy

In DSGE models, fiscal policy is typically described by simple rules in which tax rates respond to the level of output. We show that there is only weak empirical evidence in favor of such specifications in US data. Instead, the cyclical movements of labor and capital income tax rates are better described by a contemporaneous response to hours worked and investment, respectively. We show that conditioning on these variables is also desirable from a normative perspective as it significantly improves welfare relative to output-based rules.     

Asset price volatility and government revenue

This paper investigates the effect of commercial, residential property and equity price volatility on the variability of cyclically adjusted government revenue. We find significant evidence that asset price volatility increases the variability of government revenue. A 1% increase in equity price volatility increases government revenue variability by 0.37–0.44%. An increase in residential property price volatility increases revenue volatility by about 0.15–0.22%, whereas this effect diminishes to 0.11% in case of commercial property price. This evidence reflects the automatic increase of government revenue variability due to asset price movements and supports arguments in favour of adjusting fiscal variables for both business cycle and asset price changes. However, we also find evidence that equity price variability increases revenue variability even when government revenue is adjusted for both economic and asset price cycles, indicating the presence of more complicated dynamics between fiscal variables and asset price changes.     

Fiscal Policy in Real Time*

In this paper, I estimate the ex ante or intentional cyclical stance of fiscal policy in OECD countries. I use the fiscal plans reported at the time of budgeting, together with other information available to fiscal policy‐makers in real time. Indeed, fiscal plans might be significantly different from ex post outcomes because governments do not have complete control over their implementation, which is influenced by several exogenous factors. When fiscal‐policy rules are estimated using real‐time data, I show in this paper that OECD countries have often planned a counter‐cyclical fiscal stance, especially during economic expansions. This contrasts with conventional findings based on actual data, which tend to point towards a‐cyclicality or pro‐cyclicality. Forecast errors for the government structural balance and the output gap play a central role in explaining the differences between estimates based on ex ante and ex post data.     

Asymmetry in Okun's law

Abstract.  In this paper we support the proposition that the output‐unemployment relationship as represented by Okun's law is asymmetric. Okun's coefficients are defined based on a dynamic model that allows for asymmetry in the relationship between cyclical output and unemployment. Using data from the United States for the post‐war period, our results show that the short‐run effects of positive cyclical output on cyclical unemployment are quantitatively different from those of negative ones, and the data are consistent with the proposition that cyclical unemployment is more sensitive to negative than to positive cyclical output. Several theoretical explanations of asymmetry rationalize the findings. JEL Classification: C13, C22, E32