人口老龄化与养老金模式关系辨析

从养老金制度资金平衡的角度分析了人口老龄化与传统现收现付制、基金积累制以及名义账户制之间的关系。无论何种养老金模式均会受人口老龄化的影响,应对人口老龄化的能力不取决于养老金模式采用何种筹资模式,而是取决于采用何种给付方式。基金积累制和名义账户制相对于传统现收现付制的优势只是在于采用量入为出的待遇给付原则,可以避免承诺过于慷慨,进而避免因不必要的过度负担而造成的支付危机。此外,在不同养老金模式下,应对人口老龄化可行对策也存在差异。     

Does the NDC scheme mimic the French point system?

After the implementation of the notional defined contribution (NDC) pension scheme in Italy and Sweden in the ‘90s, some authors argued that its design merely replicates the functioning of the points-based pension schemes already in place in France and Germany. The aim of this article is to assess the soundness of this proposition by comparing the properties of the French points-based pension system (FPS) with those of the NDC scheme, which refrains from intra-cohort redistributions by ensuring substantial uniformity of individual rates of return. In order to assess to what extent the FPS also avoids intra-cohort redistributions, we run several simulations for different career patterns. The results of the simulations show that the discretionary adjustments embedded in the FPS are responsible for random, regressive redistributions. Finally, the article identifies the theoretical ‘equivalence condition’ showing that full correspondence between the two schemes would require replacing the discretionary mechanisms of the FPS with an automatic adjustment of point values.     

多层次养老保险协同发展的联动机制及配套政策研究

全面建成多层次社会保障体系是党的十九大报告确定的重要指导原则，推进养老保险多层次协同发展是深化社会保障改革的重中之重。本文通过对基本养老保险实际费率和替代率的测算发现补充养老保险发展存在较大空间；通过分解个人账户基金现值及权益，尝试在多层次体系下建立不同养老保险制度间的转换衔接通道。本文研究发现，允许个人账户基金纵向转续是弱化多层次挤出效应的重要方式，能够在保证第一层次覆盖率的前提下促进二三层次扩面。     

Heterogeneity effects on the management of retirement fund

This article studies the importance of plan members’ heterogeneity to the management of defined benefit (DB) pension fund. We propose a new multi-member model of DB pension fund that allows for heterogeneity in plan members’ retirement ages, salary growths and other characteristics. We first solve analytically for optimal management strategy and show that the sponsor’s supplementary contribution and the fund’s allocation in risky assets are determined by the cross-product between the fund’s expected retirement liabilities and some heterogeneity-adjusted discount factors. We then demonstrate that the presence of heterogeneity can have a significant influence on the optimal management strategy and that a management decision made while ignoring heterogeneity will be suboptimal. The knowledge of desirable and undesirable effects of heterogeneity that we uncover in this article also provides implications to the grouping of fund members. Introducing a presence of young member whose salary is positively correlated with the risky asset and avoid stacking members with negative correlations will all help the management.     

Overview of the Portuguese Three Pillar Pension System

In order to cope with alleged future financial problems, several changes were made to the design of the Portuguese pension system since 2000. The aim was to achieve the diversification of retirement income sources across providers, both public and private, across the three pillars: public, industry-wide, and personal, and also across the financing forms of pay-as-you-go and funded. This paper describes these changes and analyses the results regarding, principally, the weight of each pillar and the investment performance of both public pension reserves and private pension funds. The main finding is that, in effect, there is one substantial longstanding pillar, and that is the public system.     

目标替代率下的企业年金缴费率——基于税收优惠视角分析

企业年金作为我国养老保险体系中的第二支柱,因缺乏税收优惠政策而发展滞后,难以形成对基本养老保险的有力补充。通过将税收优惠政策和企业年金缴费率联系在一起进行考察,建立年金基金平衡模型,计算出为实现企业年金的目标替代率政府应实行多大程度的税收优惠政策。并运用成本——收益理论对这一税收优惠政策进行可行性评价,最终得到企业年金税收优惠政策能够以较小成本换来企业年金较大发展,并能够较大程度地提高整个社会福利水平的结论。     

不同养老保障机制与家庭储蓄率——基于世代交叠模型的实证研究

目前,我国的养老保障机制采用以社会养老保险为基础的多渠道养老保险机制,家庭成员赡养、个人金融投资和养老保险就成为了三种主要方式。这一结论已经得到了学术界的广泛认可,然而我国不同养老渠道之间的比例和关系尚缺乏实证研究。家庭自主的金融资产投资、家庭成员之间的赡养效果还没有得到充分的检验。文章基于2008年和2009年的中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,首次运用2005年政策调整后的数据进行实证研究,对我国养老金财富、个人金融投资以及家庭成员赡养率之间的关系进行了分析研究。文章根据传统的世代交叠模型,针对现有数据,建立了一个三期世代交叠模型,然后分析了不同渠道养老保险收入对家庭储蓄率的影响。研究结果表明,基本养老金财富与个人金融投资对非退休人群的储蓄有显著的负向影响,退休者的储蓄率主要受家庭成员赡养影响,并且呈负相关的关系。     

中国企业职工养老保险替代率的实证研究——基于缴费确定型企业年金与基本养老金的对比分析

替代率是企业养老保险方案设计的关键参数,也是政府制定社会养老决策的关键因素之一.企业年金是多支柱养老保险体系的重要组成部分,关系到中国未来养老体系的健康发展.对养老保险替代率的研究发现,基本养老镏金与企业年金对参与人的经济影响并不确定,因此,制定养老金政策须考虑相关的限制条件,政策倾向应有所差异和侧重,以保证政策目标的实现.     

我国养老金“多支柱”模式存在的问题及改革方向

20世纪70年代以来,如何应对人口老龄化导致的养老保障财务危机,成为世界各国关注的重要议题。"多支柱"模式是世界银行倡导的养老保障改革最佳方案。为了应对"未富先老"的人口老龄化压力,我国逐步建立了养老金"三支柱"模式,但"三支柱"模式无法解决现存的许多问题。为了促进我国养老保险制度可持续发展,我国有必要吸取世界银行的思想和建议,积极构建符合我国国情的养老金"五支柱"模式。     

Optimal Decisions on Pension Plans in the Presence of Information Costs and Financial Literacy

Pension reforms are on the political agenda of many countries. Such reforms imply an increasing responsibility on individuals’ side in building an efficient portfolio for retirement. In this paper, we provide a model describing workers’ choices on the allocation of retirement savings in presence of (1) mandatory pension contribution; (2) different pension plans; and (3) information costs and financial literacy investment decisions. In particular, we characterize the results from both a positive and normative standpoint, by highlighting the determinants of individuals’ choice, with special focus on information costs, on the role of income and preferences, and by characterizing the optimal contribution rate to mandatory complementary pension plans. We also introduce endogenous financial literacy and analyze how its optimal level is determined and how it affects the decisions on pension plans.     

Towards India’s New Fiscal Federalism

This paper raises three challenges in India’s development strategy: vertical imbalance, horizontal imbalance and development imbalance. To address these issues, it argues that there is a need for relooking at the existing fiscal federalism architecture in India. It proposes four pillars for India’s new fiscal federalism, which is currently having only one pillar in the form of Union Finance Commission. As a second pillar, the paper argues that there is a need for an institution, say New NITI Aayog that have financial powers for allocating for developmental schemes, to address the issue of increasing regional and sub-regional imbalances in India. Further, the paper argues for having constitutional arrangements for sharing the GST proceeds with the third Tier, which forms the third pillar. And lastly, it points towards implementation of ‘flawless GST’ as the fourth pillar of new fiscal federalism.

     

Designing the optimal public pension system

This paper uses a two‐period overlapping generations model in order to provide a theoretical design for the optimal public pension system based on a partial equilibrium analysis. Household preferences depend on two periods' consumption and leisure and are positively homogeneous of degree m with respect to consumption in the working and retired periods. We present characteristic features of the optimal public pension system in this paper. First, differences in the population growth rate do not affect the large/small relation between the optimal net lifetime burden rates of generations. Second, we present the optimal public pension system explicitly if m < 1 and m ≠ 0. Third, the difference between the market time‐preference rate and the social time‐preference rate provides a crucial insight into the optimal burden rate of each generation.     

On the optimal design of pension systems

The present paper aims to quantify efficiency properties of flat and earnings-related pay-as-you-go financed social security systems of various institutional designs in order to identify an optimal pension design. Starting from a benchmark economy without social security, we introduce alternative pension systems and compare the costs arising from liquidity constraints as well as distortions of labor supply versus the benefits from insurance provision against income and lifespan uncertainty. Our findings suggest an optimal replacement rate of about 50 % of average earnings. In our model a single-tier earnings-related pension system yields the highest efficiency gains dominating flat benefits as well as two-tier systems of any form. We also show that the negative correlation between pension progressivity and pension generosity of real-world social security systems can be justified on efficiency grounds. Finally, our results indicate a positive impact of means-testing flat benefits against earnings-related benefits within multi-pillar pension systems.     

中国个人养老金账户基金的资产负债管理研究——基于多阶段随机规划视角

我国现行的养老保障体制采用社会统筹与个人账户相结合的筹资模式,虽然两者都是养老金制度体系的支柱,但不同的收支平衡原则和实现目标,以及"混账"管理带来的种种弊端,使得统筹基金和个人账户基金分开进行独立管理势在必行。个人账户基金放开固定缴费率限制,支付体现指数化,以及作为重要的机构投资者参与分配资本市场运营成果,实现其未来支付目标、体现财富再分配功能、确保基金的保值增值,提高养老水平,是必然的发展趋势。分析我国基本养老金的运营现状,结合国际上先进的研究成果,为我国基本养老金的个人账户基金管理提出了全面、动态的分析框架。     

中国养老保险体系改革的福利经济学分析

本文用一个福利经济学框架推导出在社会福利最大化目标下现收现付制和基金制混合的养老保险体系的最优混合比率 ,模型中考虑了收入分配的因素 ,模型对过往研究中已有的结论进行了扩展 ,显示当一国的工资增长率和人口增长率之和大于投资报酬率 ,或者 ,当收入差距较大时 ,采用现收现付制有益于整个社会福利的改善。用这一框架分析中国的养老保险体系 ,并结合中国养老保险体系改革的特点 ,得出的结论是在当前及今后相当长的时间内 ,以现收现付制为主的体系可以作为中国养老保险体系的选择。文章进一步分析了现收现付制在中国持续运行的空间及其面临的挑战 ,指出这一制度的可持续运行最终取决于劳动生产率和产出的水平及增长     

Organisational regulatory legitimacy,entrepreneurial orientation,and SME innovation: an optimal distinctiveness perspective

The optimal distinctiveness perspective argues that firms face competing pressures to be both ‘like’ and ‘different from’ their peers. On the one hand, institutional scholars assert that firms need to be similar to peers in order to gain legitimacy. On the other hand, strategy scholars insist that firms need to strive to be different to gain competitive advantage. In order to enrich the optimal distinctiveness perspective, the present study builds a conceptual model that addresses the relationships among organisational regulatory legitimacy, entrepreneurial orientation, and SME innovation under the context of China’s transition economy. Our empirical results show that organisational regulatory legitimacy has an inverted-U relationship with SME innovation. Further, entrepreneurial orientation strengthens this inverse-U shaped relationship. That is, entrepreneurial orientation magnifies both the positive and the negative effect of organisational regulatory legitimacy on SME innovation. This study echoes to the call to conduct broader optimal distinctiveness research by integrating institutional theory and strategic management. Furthermore, our findings provide new evidence for the strategic balance perspective of optimal distinctiveness.     

Pension expectations,reforms and macroeconomic downturn in Italy. What can microdata tell us?

We use different years of the Bank of Italy’s Survey on Household Income and Wealth (SHIW) to explore how Italian workers’ expectations regarding their future level of pension benefits and retirement age changed from 2000 to 2014. Comparing expected and statutory values for future pension benefits and retirement ages, we find that knowledge of the pension system and its rules are not evenly distributed among workers. Some sections of the population, in particular, younger workers, women and the self-employed, are less precise in estimating their future pension benefits. As for retirement age, a large share of the working population still has not completely assimilated the implications of the linkage with the evolution of lifetime expectations at 65. Expectations in the final part of the period observed are dominated by increasing pessimism, which may be related to the macroeconomic crisis of the Italian economy and to the approval of a severe pension reform in 2011. Checking whether a household’s total wealth is consistent with lifetime consumption, we find that households where the head overestimates the future value of the pension benefit accumulate fewer resources than the remaining part of the population.     

Voluntary participation and intergenerational risk sharing in a funded pension system

We explore the feasibility of a funded pension system with intergenerational risk sharing when participation in the system is voluntary. Typically, the willingness of the young to participate depends on their belief about the future young's willingness to do so. We characterise equilibria with voluntary participation and show that the likelihood of their existence increases with risk aversion and financial market uncertainty. We find that mandatory participation is often necessary to sustain a funded pension pillar and to let participants benefit from intergenerational risk sharing.     

Who cares about the day after tomorrow? Pension issues when households are myopic or time inconsistent

Pension economics has traditionally guided pension policy with the help of formal models based on individuals who think in a life‐cycle context with perfect foresight, full information, and in a time‐consistent manner. Associated macro models were mostly based on a single country. This paper sheds light on several aspects of pension economics when these assumptions do not hold using—to our knowledge—the first multi‐country model of procrastinating households. Our focus is on the interaction between the share of procrastinators in a country, the speed and extent of population aging, and the size of an existing PAYG‐DB pension system. Starting from the insight that procrastination reduces the volume of savings, we focus on three questions that are particularly relevant for the quickly aging Asian economies: What are the consequences for the balance between pay‐as‐you‐go and fully funded pension systems? Where will retirement savings be invested in a globally linked world with very different pension systems and demographics? How large are global spillover effects of pension reforms in one region for the other regions in the world?     

Technology legitimation in the public discourse: applying the pillars of legitimacy on GM food

ABSTRACT

The public sphere, reflected by the public discourse, is an important domain for the legitimation of technology. In the institutional literature, four pillars of legitimacy are distinguished: normative, cognitive, regulative, and pragmatic. The aim of this study was to investigate to what extent these pillars can be used as a framework for analysing the legitimation of technological innovations in the public discourse. We conducted a qualitative media analysis of the case of GM food in the Netherlands, analysing 287 articles from nine Dutch newspapers in the period of 1996–2016. The results show that the pillars provide insight into legitimacy in a multi-dimensional way and serve as a structure for the dynamics of legitimation processes. Regarding GM food, the public debate was pre-dominantly negative, with a strong focus on the normative pillar. Emotional rhetoric exceeded knowledge and understanding (cognitive pillar) of GM food. The regulative and pragmatic pillars were hardly addressed.