自然资源与经济增长:资源瓶颈及其解决途径

本文试图在新古典经济学框架内,解析古典经济学关于自然资源制约经济增长的传统,并揭示克服资源瓶颈的可能途径。文章首先扩展新古典索洛模型,证明在特定技术条件下,自然资源的固定禀赋最终将使经济增长停滞。然后分别探讨了解决资源瓶颈的两种机制。其一是产业转移,即开放条件下,厂商为摆脱本地资源瓶颈,通过向外地转移资本和劳动以利用该地的自然资源,从而带动了该后起地区的经济增长。其二是技术进步,即在封闭条件下,厂商将把一部分产出投入于研发活动,不断开发出自然资源增进型技术,从而推动本地区的又一波长期增长。     

Resource Curse: New Evidence on the Role of Institutions

This paper attempts to provide a probable answer to a longstanding resource curse puzzle; i.e., why resource-rich nations grow at a slower rate compared with less fortunate ones. Using an innovative threshold estimation technique, the empirical results reveal that there is a threshold effect in the natural resources–economic growth relationship. We find that the impact of natural resources is meaningful to economic growth only after a certain threshold point of institutional quality has been attained. The results also shed light on the fact that the nations that have low institutional quality depend heavily on natural resources while countries with high quality institutions are relatively less dependent on natural resources to generate growth.     

国际技术势差、对外直接投资逆向技术溢出与本土企业技术进步

全球经济大变局背景下，中国“走出去”企业的全球优化布局对逆向技术溢出效应有效发挥至关重要。基于技术势差视角构建“走出去”企业与当地企业间的技术扩散吸收模型，探究OFDI逆向技术溢出的发生机理，并以2005—2019年78个经济体为样本，对理论命题进行验证。结果发现，中国OFDI能够对本土企业技术进步产生逆向技术溢出效应，但存在时滞性和阈值效应：当国际技术势差过大时，“走出去”企业难以通过技术扩散获取新技术，无法实现对国内企业的技术反哺；只有当中国与东道国的TFP比值处于合理区间时，才存在显著逆向技术溢出效应。此外，加快技术积累和其它渠道的国际技术溢出也是推动本土企业技术进步的重要途径。     

国际贸易、技术转移与经济增长——基于中国工业产业面板数据的实证研究

基于中国工业产业面板数据,实证研究了国际贸易的技术转移及其技术外溢效应对中国技术水平提升和经济增长的影响。研究结果表明：通过国际贸易渠道来自OECD成员国的技术转移对中国工业产业的技术进步产生了积极影响;美国和日本通过国际贸易对中国工业产业技术进步的拉动作用明显高于其他发达国家。     

“资源诅咒”悖论国外实证研究的最新进展及其争论

许多文献证明,自然资源缺乏的国家往往依靠技术和制度创新,实现了更快的经济增长,而自然资源丰裕的国家却容易陷入资源依赖型增长陷阱,经济学家用资源诅咒来描述这一经济增长中的悖论。资源诅咒的出现激起了学者们的广泛研究兴趣,产生了大量实证研究成果。本文将从荷兰病、制度和暴力冲突三个维度,对资源诅咒的国外最新实证文献进行系统梳理,并对目前学术界存在的争论进行述评。     

进口结构与技术进步：中国的经验证据

本文针对进口能否产生技术溢出从而促进进口国的技术进步或生产率提高这一问题,首先构造了进口结构指标及技术进步指标,然后对进口结构与技术进步的相互作用进行了协整分析和格兰杰因果关系检验。结果表明:资本品、中间品的进口均对技术进步有长期稳定的促进作用;我国进口存在技术溢出,且中间进口品的技术溢出作用较强,但进口结构与技术进步之间不存在双向因果关系,贸易结构改善与技术进步之间的良性循环并未形成。根据以上结论,本文提出了加强对外贸易、充分利用技术传递,将技术创新与技术传递有机结合,用竞争扶持代替关税保护这三项政策建议。     

THE IMPACT OF DOMESTIC AND FOREIGN COMPETITION ON SECTORAL GROWTH: A CROSS‐COUNTRY ANALYSIS

This paper examines the impact of competition on the total factor productivity (TFP) of 21 manufacturing sectors in eighteen OECD countries over the period of time 1990–2006. We assume that the source of TFP growth can be either domestic or foreign innovation or technology transfer from the technological frontier. Trade openness, R&D, and human capital can have two effects: a direct effect on TFP (e.g., through innovation) and an indirect effect depending on the productivity gap between a given country and the technological frontier. We find that tougher domestic competition is always associated with higher sectoral productivity. Both import and export penetrations are positively associated with an increase of TFP. However, the channels through which higher TFP is materialized are different: export penetration works through level effect, while import penetration acts mainly when conditional on the level of technological development. The economical magnitude of the effect is not trivial.     

进口贸易是否抑制了技术进步——状态空间模型的再检验

本文基于周方的“增长函数”,并借鉴“广义索罗余值”思想对中国技术进步水平和速率进行重新测度。在此基础上构建状态空间模型并利用卡尔曼滤波,实证分析进口贸易对技术进步和技术进步速率的影响。本文研究表明：第一,中国的技术水平虽然整体保持增长,但是速率波动很大,表明技术进步趋势尚不稳定;第二,进口贸易对技术进步呈现显著负向影响,改革开放虽然减轻了影响程度,却没有改变影响方向。可见进口贸易在一定程度上抑制了技术进步,但是进口贸易对技术进步速率的影响依然显著为正。     

发达国家农业可持续增长的经验及启示——人口转型与技术进步

完成人口转型的发达国家中,土地、劳动力等传统农业生产要素已不再是农业增长的主要影响因素。而实际上人口转型已成为影响农业技术进步的决定性因素。文章基于1980-2000年14个已完成人口转型的发达国家面板数据的实证分析,通过农业技术与农业增长、人口转型与技术进步两个模型的检验结果,验证了发达国家农业人口数量的减少、受教育水平的提高对技术进步具有正向影响,通过对发达国家农业可持续增长的经验分析,得出中国农业可持续增长的关键为重视农村教育、加快农业人口转型以及提高农业科技投入。同时给出中国农业可持续增长的政策建议:利用教育投资的外溢效应促进农业人口转型,借助科技投入步入高效益农业可持续增长轨道。     

Energy price-induced and exogenous technological change: Assessing the economic and environmental outcomes

In this paper, we distinguish between factor/output substitution and shifts in the production technology frontier. Our model includes the by-products of carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide emissions where the function requires the simultaneous expansion of good outputs and reductions in emissions. We estimate a directional output distance function for 80 countries over the period 1971–2000 to measure the exogenous and oil price-induced technological change. On average, we find substantial oil price-induced technological progress at the world level when long-term oil prices are rising, although the growth rate is more volatile in developed countries than in developing countries. The results also show that developed countries experience higher exogenous technological progress in comparison with developing countries, and the gap between the two has increased during the period of our study.     

Metabolic growth theory: market-share competition,learning uncertainty,and technology wavelets

Both exogenous and endogenous growth theories in neoclassical economics ignore the resource constraints and wavelike patterns in technology development. The logistic growth and species competition model in population dynamics provides an evolutionary framework of economic growth driven by technology wavelets in market-share competition. Learning by doing and knowledge accumulation ignores the interruptive nature of technology advancement. Creative destruction can be understood by using knowledge metabolism. Policies and institutions co-evolve during different stages of technology cycles. Division of labor is limited by the market extent, numbers of resources, and environment fluctuations. There is a trade-off between the stability and complexity of an ecological-industrial system. Diversified patterns in development strategy are shaped by culture and environment when facing learning uncertainty. The Western mode of division of labor is characterized by labor-saving and resource-intensive technology, while the Asian and Chinese modes feature resource-saving and labor-intensive technology. Nonlinear population dynamics provides a unified evolutionary theory from Smith, Malthus, to Schumpeter in economic growth and technology development.     

技术资本：概念辨析、知识结构与分析框架

技术资本是一种新型、独立的资本形态，是技术加速转化为生产力并创造更多价值的重要途径，对加快数字经济发展具有重要意义。在回顾国内外相关研究的基础上，首先拓展技术资本的概念内涵，明确其价值增值的目标属性；然后，运用知识图谱分析方法对技术资本研究的知识结构进行可视化分析，发现现有研究主要形成技术视角、资本视角和技术资本化过程的3种进路；随后，进一步构建一个整合式分析框架，从驱动因素、生成机制、作用机理和影响效果4个方面建立全局性视角，以把握技术资本研究情况；最后，从完善测量方法，探析技术资本与数字经济、数字技术关联等方面提出可行的研究方向。结论有助于阶段性厘清国内外技术资本研究进展，为未来更深入的分析提供参考。     

中印ODI的发展阶段和本土技术进步效应比较

根据Dunning的对外投资五阶段理论和国际生产折衷理论(OLI理论),比较中国和印度两个发展中大国ODI所处的发展阶段;根据两国1984年到2006年间对外投资增长率、劳动力增长率和技术进步增长率方面的数据,检验上述三个变量之间的关系,得出中国和印度的ODI是本土技术进步的原因、但是在作用程度和时滞方面却存在差别的结论.     

Nature, Power and Growth

This essay reviews the relationship between natural–resource abundance and economic growth around the world, and presents some new results. The principal reasons why resource–based production can inhibit economic growth over long periods are traced to the Dutch disease, neglect of education, rent seeking, and economic policy failures. Across a large number of countries in the period from 1965 to 1998, the share of the primary sector in the labour force is shown to be inversely related to exports, domestic and foreign investment, and education, and directly related to external debt, import protection, corruption, and income inequality. The cross–sectional data show, moreover, that the share of the primary sector in the labour force is inversely related to per capita growth across countries. None of this lies in the nature of things, however. What seems to matter for economic growth is not the abundance of natural resources per se, but rather the quality of their management, and of economic management and institutions in general.     

Canada’s dependence on natural capital wealth: Was Innis wrong?

Canada has abundant natural resources—its stock of natural capital wealth. A recurring debate in the literature is whether resource rich countries benefit in the form of higher sustained growth rates or not from the export of their natural resources. Canada's Harold Innis wrote extensively on this subject over 80 years ago and argued for the “no” side in the debate. Was he was right or wrong? I begin with the foundations of natural resource theory then turn to empirical work in recent decades. I agree with the literature that Canada overall has benefited from the export of its natural resources, but question whether that can continue given the focus on short term growth and the failure to account for the social costs of resource extraction and use—the environmental externalities that degrade and reduce stocks of natural capital. These externalities increasingly threaten our water and land resources and without more effective policy, the ability of resources to sustain growth and well‐being is questionable. Was Innis wrong? Yes in that the evidence supports the counter argument—resources have helped Canada become a developed economy with relatively high incomes and sustained growth rates. Innis was right that the uneven distribution of resources causes different impacts regionally especially during booms and busts and recognized the need to find substitutes for declining and degrading resource stocks. But Innis, like many after him, focused more on the intrinsic features of natural resources than policy to address the social costs of their development, a legacy that leaves us in a precarious position today.     

Exhaustible resources,technology choice and industrialization of developing countries

How should the world economy adapt to the increased demand for exhaustible resources from countries like China and India? To address that issue, this paper presents a dynamic model of the world economy with two technologies for production; a resource technology, which uses an exhaustible resource as an input and an alternative technology, which does not. I find that both the time path of resource extraction and the adoption of the alternative technology depend on the optimal allocation of capital across the technologies, and on the size of the capital stock in relation to the resource stock. In particular, if the capital stock is low, only the resource technology is used initially and the alternative technology is adopted with a delay. Next, I use the model to analyze the effects of industrialization of developing countries on the extraction of oil and technology choice for energy production. As a result of industrialization, the alternative technology for energy production is adopted earlier.     

The curse of natural resources in the transition economies*

The curse of natural resources is a well‐documented phenomenon for developing countries. Economies that are richly endowed with natural resources tend to grow slowly. Among the transition economies of the former ‘Eastern Bloc’, a similar pattern can be observed. This paper shows that a large part of the variation in growth rates among the transition economies can be attributed to the curse of natural resources. After controlling for numerous other factors, there is still a strong negative correlation between natural resource abundance and economic growth. Among the transition economies the prime reasons for the curse of natural resources were corruption and a neglect of basic education. In order to overcome the curse of natural resources and move to a sustainable path of development, the resource abundant transition countries should fight corruption and ensure that their resource revenues are invested in human capital or the preservation of natural capital.     

Adaptive Economic Models

The growth literature has identified four channels of transmission by which the abundance of natural resources can negatively affect economic growth. In this article, I suggest ideology as a fifth transmission channel. To test this hypothesis, I exploit the geography of Bolivia whose western regions have natural resources that differ considerably from its eastern regions. I find that regions with predominantly extractive natural resources tend to choose redistributive and interventionist rather than laissez-faire policies. Additionally, I identify two effects on growth depending upon the type of natural resource that a region possesses in abundance.     

关于我国农村金融与农业技术进步的实证分析——基于时间序列数据的研究

金融发展通过＂资本积累＂和＂技术进步＂两条途径来实现对经济增长的影响,技术进步才是决定长期经济增长的关键因素。判断（农村）金融能否可持续发展的标准应该是其能否促进（农业）技术进步。基于1985-2005年的时间序列数据的实证分析,认为我国农村金融发展与农业技术进步之间存在着长期的、均衡的、单向因果关系,即农业技术进步对农村金融发展有着推动作用,而农村金融发展对我国农业技术进步的作用不明显。因此,我国农村金融深化改革应该以促进农业技术进步为导向,以实现农村金融资源的优化配置。     

Resource abundance,market size,and the choice of technology

How resource abundance and market size affect the choice of increasing returns technologies is studied in an overlapping‐generations general equilibrium model in which manufacturing firms engage in oligopolistic competition. The model is surprisingly tractable. First, for the steady state, the wage rate, the level of technology, and capital stock are not affected by the amount of natural resources. An increase in the share of agricultural revenue going to natural resources leads to a lower wage rate and firms choose less advanced technologies. Second, an increase in market size increases the equilibrium wage rate, level of technology, and capital stock. Finally, other things equal, a country with a lower endowment of natural resources or a higher market size has a comparative advantage in producing the manufactured good.