我国家族企业的制度变迁与创新研究

制度变迁是由外部利润引起的变迁需求与供给主体引起的变迁供给共同作用的结果,在变迁过程中,由于初始的制度安排使它容易受到路径依赖的制约,此时创新就显得尤为必要.对我国家族企业而言,只有不断的进行制度创新,运用诱致性和强制性变迁相结合的手段,才能避免锁定在低效率的状态.     

“一带一路”沿线国家吸引国际直接投资的制度建设研究——中国“渐进式改革”经验与借鉴*

从世界经济发展的历程来看,国际资本流动是全球化背景下要素流动配置的必经之路,国际直接投资对东道国的经济增长具有积极的推动作用。对于正处于经济发展初级阶段的“一带一路”沿线国家而言,国际直接投资可以通过促进其资本形成、技术水平提升等来推动经济增长。但是由于沿线涉及诸多国家,环境相对复杂,各国经济社会发展水平落差巨大,投资环境大不相同,地区安全风险频发等,这些国家在吸引国际直接投资的时候面临诸多问题,而这些问题本质上与沿线大部分国家处于发展初期阶段,欠缺相对规范的市场经济体制和市场规则紧密相关。中国改革开放以来取得的成绩以及吸引FDI的成就与渐进式改革密切相关。中国采取诱致性制度变迁与强制性制度变迁相结合的渐进式改革经验可以为“一带一路”沿线国家吸引国际直接投资进行制度改革提供有效的借鉴,即建立和完善市场经济体制,培育真正的市场化主体,建立和完善相关法律法规,同时加强国际合作与互助等。     

路径依赖对我国民营企业发展的影响

我国民营企业的发展存在许多问题，现有的文献已对此做过详细的解释。本文认为路径依赖是制约其成长的最大障碍，只有进行制度创新，运用诱致性和强制性制度变迁的手段，才能使民营企业的发展步入良性循环，避免锁定在低效率的状态。     

广东区域创新体系制度建设探析

区域创新体系的建立对广东经济社会发展具有重要作用,其中制度建设尤为必要。应以提高区域创新体系的效率为中心,坚持长远性制度与渐进性制度、正式制度与非正式制度、强制性制度变迁与诱致性制度变迁、开放与合作相结合的原则,从培育具有广东特色的创新文化、加快市场制度建设和高新技术产业区建设、加强创新主体的培育和产权建设、实施名标名牌带动知识产权保护战略、完善财政投入与税收优惠制度等方面着手,实施区域创新体系制度建设工程。     

中国经济体制改革时期制度变迁的特征分析

从实质上说，中国经济体制改革的过程就是一个制度的重建过程，即以适应市场经济的制度安排取代适应计划经济的制度安排取代适应计划经济的制度安排的过程。在这一制度重建的进程中，市场取向的制度变迁表现出八个方面的典型特征：一是制度变迁需求的内性性；二是制度变迁供给的滞后性；三是制度变迁目标的动态性；四是制度变迁过程的渐进性；五是制度变迁轨迹的路径依赖性；六是从单项制度变迁向制度结构变迁演进；七是强制性制度变迁与诱致性制度变迁相结合；八是宏观经济制度变迁与微观经济制度变迁同步进行。     

我国金融制度创新的路径选择

当前我国的金融制度在金融组织、宏观调控、金融市场和金融监管等方面还存在制度缺陷,因此需要有创新的金融制度安排来推动我国金融制度的进一步变迁.在当前经济发展阶段,自下而上的需求诱致型金融制度变迁方式在我国不大可能实现,而地方政府最有可能成为制度创新的主体,成为连接中央政府制度供给和微观主体制度需求的重要中介.因此,我国金融制度创新与变迁可行的路径是:由改革之初的供给主导型制度变迁方式逐步向中间扩散型制度变迁方式转变,最终过渡到与市场经济内在要求相一致的需求诱致型制度变迁方式.     

中国票据市场制度变迁的实证研究

自2 0世纪80年代以来,中国票据市场从诱致性制度变迁走向强制性制度变迁的过程经历了探索起步、初步发展、低落徘徊及恢复和快速发展四个阶段。由于这种制度变迁仍处于制度选择向制度设置的过渡期,因而在制度变迁主体、制度安排结构等方面独具特色。在呈现明显的制度绩效的同时,也因为经济基础和信用基础的脆弱性而形成了票据市场制度变迁的路径依赖。     

制度变迁与中国经济体制改革的实证分析

本文在分析西方制度学派和马克思主义经济学对制度的解释的基础上，探讨了制度变迁的客观必然性，并结合中国经济体制改革的历程进行了实证分析，强调了制度变迁在我国经济发展中的现实重要性，指出制度变迁必须处理好借鉴与创新、渐进与激进的关系，制度变迁方式的选择应实现从强制性制度变迁到供给主导型制度变迁再到诱致性制度变迁的转变。     

对中国农村金融制度变迁的制约因素与基本特征的思考

农村金融制度的变迁主要受初始条件、经济体制、发展战略及利益集团的要求等因素的制约,其基本特征表现为:因为金融抑制的存在,农村金融制度变迁是一种非农村经济主体需求导向性的机制演进,由政府主导自上而下强制性供给;自上而下的强制性农村金融制度变迁与自下而上的诱致性农村经济制度变迁路径相背离;农村规范的外生金融与不规范的内生金融的冲突贯穿于整个农村金融制度变迁的全过程。考察农村金融制度的变迁过程,得出:农村金融制度变迁滞后于农村经济制度的变迁;农村金融制度结构与农村经济制度结构不对称;农村金融与农村经济的制度变迁存在相互制约的关系。     

经济转型、秩序扩展与市场秩序中的制度创新

经济转型引起了市场秩序中的制度变迁,当前所处的经济转型的阶段目标要求市场秩序中的制度创新。市场主体和客体的扩展导致了市场秩序的扩展,这也要求市场秩序的制度创新。市场秩序的制度创新可以从注重制度效率、重视非正式制度的建设和增加诱致性制度变迁的机会等方面来进行。     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

Interest on reserves and inflation

The payment of interest on reserves has been a common practice in inflationary economies. This policy may seem paradoxical since it involves returning part of the seigniorage, generated by the inflation process, with the intention to finance the fiscal deficit. This paper argues that the motivation for this policy can be captured by the discretionary regime, where the policymaker pays interest on reserves because he is concerned with the erosion of real liquidity by inflation, which is in part beyond his control. However, this policy is an unlikely outcome in the commitment regime, where the policymaker is in full control of inflation.     

John Stuart Mill's Theories of Wealth and Income Distribution

Although he was much influenced by David Ricardo when he wrote the classical part of his Principles , John Stuart Mill was not a Ricardian when he penned his theories of wealth and distribution. They are based on a triple foundation. First, a belief that economics is a moral discipline. Second a theory of custom-driven human behavior. Third, an empirically formed conviction that the institutions of state, education and business cooperate to structure the distribution of income. On the basis of these presuppositions, Mill formulated 1) an institutional theory of the formation of human and non-human wealth and 2) an even more institutional theory of distribution demonstrating how the aforementioned institutions malignantly skew the distribution of income to the advantage of the propertied classes and to the extreme disadvantage of the working class. As a social economist, Mill recommended institutional reforms designed to eradicate the poverty of the working class.     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

Planned adaptation in risk regulation: An initial survey of US environmental, health, and safety regulation

In principle, we want regulatory programs to be based on current realities, as reflected for example in the best knowledge of relevant experts. That would imply that old rules now on the books should be consistent with today's knowledge base, not just what was known when a rule or standard was originally set. This paper reports on a survey of US programs, examining how often existing rules are actually updated in light of better knowledge, and identifies five programs that attempt to make policy routinely adaptive. These programs exhibit what we term Planned Adaptation: they both revise rules when relevant new knowledge appears, and take steps to produce such improved knowledge. While Planned Adaptation is rare, it is used in several nationally prominent programs, including air pollution, airplane safety, and drug safety. Planned Adaptation is a policy tool that deserves more attention.     

Information infrastructure: Who builds broadband networks?

This paper examines the essential difference between the U.S. and Japan, when one considers information infrastructure. There are seven perception gaps between the U.S. and Japan concerning Information Infrastructure policies. These gaps must be understood in order to compare the countries' governmental policies in this area. In looking at the present circumstances, the essential question to answer concerns who is to build, own and operate the network(s) of the infrastructure. Liberalization is certain to be a central factor in the ongoing telecommunications debates. Now that customers have had a taste of the liberalized market-place, the movement toward more open markets will be difficult to stop. When considering options, it is necessary to pay close attention to standardized network access and the increasingly important role software plays. These issues are causing us to take a new approach to the traditional role played by regulators. They also force a closer look at the appropriate structure of utility companies. This paper addresses the above issues in hopes of stimulating dialog on the new telecommunications infrastructure paradigm.     

Bayesian estimation of duration models: An application of the multiperiod probit model

The multiperiod probit model is presented and Bayesian estimation using the Gibbs sampler with data augmentation is described. As an empirical illustration, the multiperiod probit model is then used to estimate a duration model using employment duration data for the Canadian province of New Brunswick. Bayesian estimation with unobserved heterogeneity is shown to be a simple extension of estimation of a duration model with no unobserved heterogeneity. More importantly, perhaps, some numerical problems encountered by other authors using Maximum Likelihood are avoided.I would like to thank M. Baker, G. Koop, A. Melino and D. Poirier for helpful comments and discussions. I would also like to thank M. Baker for providing his data.     

海岛地区产业演替及资源基础分析--以舟山群岛为例

改革开放以来,舟山市产业构成发生了显著变化,其经济发展过程可以划分为三个阶段。1992年前,是以产业结构渔业占绝对地位的单一结构阶段;1993—1998年,以旅游业为主的第三产业快速发展阶段;上世纪末以来,又进入了新一轮的经济发展时期,即工业产值比重快速增加阶段。根据海岛的自然资源基础和特点,在新世纪的经济发展过程中,舟山市应定位为生态型的港口旅游城市。以港口及临港工业为主导,以海岛旅游和海洋经济为特色,大力发展第二产业和第三产业。海岛地区的主导产业应体现海岛资源优势及区位优势,以集群性环保型产业为主。同时由于海岛地区淡水资源缺乏,主导产业也应着重选择低耗水型产业。