基于多主体仿真的创新扩散模型研究——对企业创新产品营销战略的探讨

区别于现有创新扩散模型,本文提出的基于multi-agent仿真方法的模型,考虑了个体异质性及移动性的特征。模型认为个体在决策是否接受一项创新产品时,主要考虑两方面的因素:一是衡量产品质量是否达到要求;二是衡量周围与其相联结的社会网络中人群的影响。模型用NetLogo仿真软件运行,其仿真结果论证了产品刚刚投放市场时应适当加大广告强度,而随着市场占有率的增加可以适当降低广告强度。同时,本文也讨论了人口密集度、产品特性和个体的社会影响阈值等因素对创新扩散的影响,并提出了相应的营销策略。     

扩散问题的微观仿真——个体异质性的处理

在社会经济系统中,各类扩散问题的运行机理有一定的相似性,即微观个体间的互动是导致宏观层面上扩散现象的原因。微观仿真模型是研究扩散问题的一类重要的方法,在介绍相关微观仿真模型建模原理的基础上,本文以SARS模型为例,展示了微观仿真模型在处理个体异质性方面的优势。由于各类扩散问题的相似性,因此最后探讨了SARS模型经过一定的修正后,如何应用于创新扩散和金融市场中交易者之间的互动等问题。     

管理领域中若干扩散性问题的元胞自动机模型

元胞自动机通过模拟个体之间的相互作用得到宏观结果,作为一种微观模型已经越来越广泛地应用于管理领域的研究。介绍了元胞自动机模型的机理,并分别针对管理领域中文化舆论传播、传染病传播以及创新扩散建立了元胞自动机模型进行研究。     

新产品扩散的二元影响实证研究

新产品扩散的程度决定了新产品是否能够生存,其影响因素的研究就显得非常重要。作者基于Bass模型分析了23个轿车新产品上市后52周的销售数据,得到了以下的结论 :(1)新产品扩散的二元影响是存在的,主要影响因素是内部的口碑传播和外部的广告传播,不过不同的品牌之间研究结果差异较大。(2)内部因素对新产品扩散的影响显著高于外部因素的影响,这一结果与国外的相关研究差异较大,显示了中国市场的特殊特点;(3)Bass模型是一种非常适合研究二元影响的新产品扩散模型。     

社会网络与新产品扩散协同演化研究

基于复杂网络视角,从微观层面对新产品扩散问题进行研究。结合心理学、社会学和博弈论,构建个体决策行为模型,并设计出一种智能学习方法实现消费者间的互动。在Anylogic上建立多Agent模型,考虑局部网络效应,设计网络演化规则,探究不同网络环境下网络结构和消费者决策共同演化规律,并分析产品效用参数、沟通交互强度、种子用户数量以及链接断开时间对共同演化的影响。研究发现：①尽管初始网络结构不同,消费者关系结构均能够以更高的聚集性和稳定性重构,且在小世界和无标度网络下,共同演化、彼此促进,从而有助于产品扩散;②尽管在高度数的无标度网络下共同演化会使扩散结果呈现出两面性,但在扩散过程中网络结构变化趋势一致;③网络效应强度提高能增大产品效用值,但过高和过低的效用值都将削弱网络演化对扩散的促进效果;④种子用户在达到一定规模后,不再影响最终扩散结果;⑤若共同演化能在最终时刻前达到稳定,链接断开时间则不影响扩散结果。     

从广告词看广告的非产品角度定位

20世纪 5 0年代前后 ,广告的注意力集中于产品特点上 ,是所谓产品至上的时代。 2 0世纪 6 0年代以后 ,随着技术和产品的日益标准化 ,商品之间的差异变得不那么明显了 ,仅将广告定位于产品特点上已经无法适应广告宣传的需要。在这种形势下 ,广告定位策略出现了一些新变化 ,即从产品角度进行广告宣传的同时 ,加强了从非产品进行的宣传。尤其是 2 0世纪 80年代以来 ,通过从非产品定位的广告来宣传企业形象和企业文化的做法已得到众多企业的重视。本文拟从广告词为着眼点来分析广告定位的非产品角度。一、科技篇科技是企业发展的原动力 ,特别是…     

研发人员知识操纵、资源获取与概念产品语义创新

除知识共享与知识隐藏两种策略外，研发人员通常会选择介于共享与隐藏之间的中间策略，通过知识操纵管理个体知识。从概念产品语义创新的微观视角入手，依据知识保存理论，构建被调节的中介效应模型，探讨知识操纵、资源获取、政治技能对产品语义创新的影响机理，并利用377份配对样本数据检验相关假设。结果表明：知识操纵与资源获取之间存在倒U型关系，资源获取部分中介了知识操纵与产品语义创新的倒U形关系；政治技能在知识操纵与资源获取的倒U型关系中起正向调节作用，并且调节资源获取在知识操纵与产品语义创新之间的中介作用。研究诠释了知识操纵策略的两面性，强调知识型员工同样需要提高政治技能。     

儿童产品的广告创作探讨

儿童产品的广告诉求对象既可以是儿童,也可以是家长。由于两者的消费心理存在着极大差异,使得儿童产品的广告创作与一般消费品广告创作有所不同。儿童产品的广告创作应该把握儿童的广告接受特点,明确广告诉求对象,针对诉求对象分别制定不同的广告策略,同时在广告创作中要注意避免不利于儿童成长的负面影响。     

创新扩散网络结构与创新扩散绩效关系研究

创新扩散网络结构对创新扩散绩效有重要影响。通过设计基于原胞自动机的创新扩散网络仿真模型,模拟不同网络结构的创新扩散过程,依据确定的创新扩散绩效测量指标,分析了创新扩散网络结构参数与创新扩散绩效之间的关系。研究发现,在创新扩散网络中,个体创新信息采纳概率是影响创新扩散速度和规模的最重要因素;创新扩散网络密度越大,创新扩散规模越大,扩散速度越快;初始创新者数量多可以加快创新传播速度,但不能扩大创新扩散规模。     

资本结构与公司产品市场策略互动关系的实证研究

现在有关资本结构与产品市场策略关系的研究仅限于资本结构与公司产品市场策略之间相互关系的一个侧面,对公司的资本结构与其产品市场竞争策略之间互动关系的全面分析基本上没有。文章以广告投入作为公司的产品竞争策略,从更加广义的资本结构(包括公司的短期负债)角度探讨了它们之间的相互关系。我们发现公司的资本结构与其广告投入之间存在着正相关的互动关系。     

Advertising,learning, and consumer choice in experience good markets: an empirical examination*

This article empirically analyzes different effects of advertising in a nondurable, experience good market. A dynamic learning model of consumer behavior is presented in which I allow both “informative” effects of advertising and “prestige” or “image” effects of advertising. This learning model is estimated using consumer level panel data tracking grocery purchases and advertising exposures over time. Empirical results suggest that in this market, advertising's primary effect was that of informing consumers. The estimates are used to quantify the value of this information to consumers and evaluate the welfare implications of an alternative advertising regulatory regime.     

广告支出与消费增长:基于1981年～2009年时间序列数据的经验研究

理论分析显示广告支出与消费增长相互依存,广告可以通过诱导消费者的潜在需求从而刺激消费,消费增长也会促使企业增加广告支出。笔者在多变量VAR模型的基础上,采用中国1981年～2009年度数据,运用协整检验发现:广告支出、城市居民消费支出和农村居民消费支出之间存在某种长期均衡关系,广告支出是城市和农村消费增长的格兰杰原因。脉冲响应和方差分解表明,广告对消费的刺激效应不断下降,呈现出长期均衡的趋势。从宏观整体的视角来看,企业广告长期投放应保持理性,广告支出应维持在相对稳定合理的状态。     

A laboratory study of advertising and price competition

We use a laboratory experiment to study advertising and pricing behavior in a market where consumers differ in price sensitivity. Equilibrium in this market entails variation in the number of firms advertising and price dispersion in advertised prices. We vary the cost to advertise as well as varying the number of competing firms. Theory predicts that advertising costs act as a facilitating device: higher costs increase firm profits at the expense of consumers. We find that higher advertising costs decrease demand for advertising and raise advertised prices, as predicted. Further, this comes at the expense of consumers. However, advertising strategies are more aggressive than theory predicts with the result that firm profits do not increase.     

A factor analysis approach to measure the biased effects of retail fruit juice advertising

This study presents a structural factor analysis approach to measure the impact of advertising on consumer demand. It is assumed that advertising affects the latent perception of consumers, which in turn influences their purchasing behavior. This study investigates the relationship between consumer purchases and retail store advertising (i.e., newspaper advertising, in-store display, and point-of-purchase display) of three fruit juices using an extended Rotterdam model. The results show that the demand for orange juice and grapefruit juice was affected by their own advertising, while the demand for apple juice was only affected by advertising of competitive juices.The authors are a Senior Econometrician, TRS Risk Management, American Express Company; and a Research Economist, Florida Department of Citrus, and Adjunct Professor, Food and Resource Economics Department, University of Florida, respectively.The authors thank B. Dixon, A. Reynolds, S. Shonkwiler, H. Theil, K. Young, editor, and other anonymous reviewers for comments and suggestions. The usual disclaimer applies. This study was partially supported by the McKethan-Matherly Eminent Scholar Chair at the University of Florida.     

Exposure order effects and advertising competition

This paper applies the theories of exposure order effects, developed in the psychology literature, to an industrial organization model to explore their role in advertising competition. There are two firms and infinitely many identical consumers. The firms produce a homogeneous product and distribute their brands through a common retailer. Consumers randomly arrive at the retailer and buy their most preferred brands. The order in which a consumer sees the advertising messages affects his brand preferences. Under the primacy effect the consumer prefers the brand he first saw advertised, under the recency—the last encountered brand. The equilibrium of the advertising game is characterized separately under the primacy and the recency effects. In the first setting all consumers are initially unaware of the product existence. The equilibrium advertising intensities, remarkably, do not depend on the type of exposure order effect. In the other two settings some consumers have already formed their brand preferences. The primacy and the recency effects give rise to different equilibrium outcomes.     

A Theory of Broadcast Media Concentration and Commercial Advertising

We analyze a model in which the interaction of broadcasters, advertisers, and consumers determines the level of nonadvertising broadcasting produced and consumed. Our main finding is that an increase in concentration in broadcast media industries may lead to a decrease in the total amount of nonadvertising broadcasting. The strength of this inverse relationship depends, in part, on the behavioral response of the consumers to changes in advertising intensities. We also present a numerical general equilibrium solution to our model and demonstrate a positive relationship between consumer welfare and the number of firms in the broadcast industry.     

Measuring and testing advertising-induced rotation in the demand curve

Advertising can rotate the demand curve if it changes the dispersion of consumers’ valuations. We provide an elasticity form measure of the advertising-induced demand curve rotation in five demand models and test for its presence in the US nonalcoholic beverage market. The Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) model reveals that doubling advertising spending rotates the demand curves clockwise for milk, and coffee and tea with associated slope changes of 7 and 12%. Soft-drink advertising rotates its demand curve counterclockwise. Our policy suggestion is that milk and soft-drink firms time advertising to coincide with high-and low-price periods, respectively.     

Online advertising networks and consumer perceptions of privacy

I use crowd-sourced ratings of website trustworthiness to investigate how consumers weigh the privacy impact of online advertising technologies. I find that using one additional advertising network is associated with a 0.7% increase in trust score and that using a behavioural network is associated with a 4.6% increase in trust score. These counter-intuitive results support the notion that consumers are unaware of the advertising technologies used by websites and their impact on privacy.