Quasi‐experimental Estimates of the Effect of Class Size on Achievement in Norway*

Using a comprehensive Norwegian administrative database, we exploit independent quasi‐experimental methods to estimate the effect of class size on student achievement at the end of lower‐secondary school. Identification based on maximum class‐size rules and population variation (and variations on these methods) give very similar estimates. We cannot reject that the class‐size effect is equal to zero, and can rule out effects as small as 1.5 percent of a standard deviation for a one‐student change in class size during three consecutive years.     

The effect of school resources on educational attainment: evidence from Denmark

We investigate the effect of school inputs in primary and lower secondary schools on the probability of eventually passing upper secondary or vocational education. Danish administrative register data for a large number of young people and their parents are used. Educational outcome and controls for family background are measured at the individual level, whereas school expenditure and controls for municipal socioeconomic characteristics are measured at the municipal level. As unobserved characteristics may be correlated for pupils within the same municipality, we estimate linear probability and logit models with random municipal‐specific effects in addition to standard OLS and logit models. With the full sample of pupils and the full set of controls, we find that expenditure per pupil has a statistically significant, but rather small, positive effect on educational attainment. Effects of teacher–pupil ratios are less significant. The expenditure effects are generally higher for pupils from disadvantaged backgrounds.     

Why Young Boys Stumble: Early Tracking,Age and Gender Bias in the German School System

Abstract. After primary school, German pupils are given a secondary school track recommendation. This recommendation and the actual track choice are strongly associated with later life outcomes. Using data from the German PISA 2000 extension study, we analyze the effect of relative age on track recommendations and actual choice. Younger pupils and boys are less likely to be recommended to and enrolled in the academic track (Gymnasium), the most attractive track in terms of later life outcomes. Flexible enrollment and grade retention partly offset these effects. We find no convincing evidence that postponing the recommendation by lengthening primary school by 2 years reduces the age or gender bias.     

The psychological effects of academic labeling: The case of class tracks

This paper studies the psychological effects of academic labeling. Exploiting the class tracking policy in a Chinese university, we identify the psychological impacts of the academic labels associated with class tracks on the students via a regression discontinuity design in the track assignment rule. We establish causal evidence of positive effects of a better academic label on the academic self-concept and self-expectation of students as well as their academic interest. Our setup ensures that the identified effects of the labels are through the mechanism of student responses, not teachers and schools, suggesting that previous literature focusing on the mechanism of teachers and schools may have neglected an important channel through which academic labels may impact students.     

CLASS TRACKS AND EDUCATION OUTCOMES: EVIDENCE FROM A CHINESE UNIVERSITY

This article investigates the effect of being assigned to different class tracks on education outcomes in higher education. We use administrative data from a Chinese university where students are assigned to two tracks of English education. Students in the high achieving track enjoy exposure to better peers, but receive less instruction time before taking a national English test. A regression discontinuity design establishes evidence that being assigned to the high achieving track has a negligible effect. Our analysis shows that the null impact is due to the offsetting effects of instruction time and peers. (JEL I21, I23)     

Institutional specifics and unemployment insurance eligibility in Canada: How sensitive are employment duration effects?

The paper examines the influence of unemployment insurance on the duration of employment spells in Canada using the 1988–90 Labour Market Activity Survey. The primary focus of the paper is to evaluate whether estimated UI effects are sensitive to the degree to which institutional rules and regulations governing UI eligibility and entitlement are explicitly modelled. The key result of the paper is that it is indeed important to allow for institutional detail when estimating unemployment insurance effects. Estimates using simple proxies for eligibility indicate small, often insignificant UI effects. The size and significance of the effects rise as more realistic versions of the variables are adopted. The estimates using the eligibility variables incorporating the greatest level of institutional detail suggest that a jump in the hazard rate by a factor of 2.3 may not be an unreasonable estimate of the effect.     

Can Small Class Policy Close the Gap? An Empirical Analysis of Class Size Effects in Japan

Can smaller classes lead to better educational outcomes and greater equality in achievement? We estimate the causal effects of class size on achievement tests by using discontinuous changes in class size under the Japanese public compulsory education system. We employ a value‐added model that uses achievement tests conducted at two different times during the same school year. Our results show that a reduction in class size has significantly positive effects on Japanese language test scores in the sixth grade, especially at schools in wealthy areas. However, we find no evidence that a universal small class policy closes the achievement gap among schools.     

Minimum wages and the gender wage gap

Estimates are made of the effect of minimum wages on the size and composition of the gender wage gap in Canada in 1986. It is found that minimum wages close the wage gap substantially for young workers and less so for adults. The reduction in the gap is most attributable to the adverse employment effects of minimum wages. The results also indicate that most of the reduction in the gap is realized through a fall in the discriminatory component.     

Immigration Wage Effects by Origin

We estimate the direct partial wage effects of immigrant‐induced increases in labor supply, using the national skill cell approach with longitudinal records drawn from Norwegian administrative registers. The results show overall negative but heterogeneous wage effects, with larger effects on immigrant wages than on native wages and with native wages more responsive to inflows from Nordic countries than from developing countries. These patterns are consistent with natives and Nordic citizens being close substitutes, while natives and immigrants from developing countries are imperfect substitutes. Estimates are sensitive to accounting for effective immigrant experience, selective native participation, and variation in demand conditions and native labor supply.     

HOME COMPUTER USE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF HUMAN CAPITAL

This paper uses a regression discontinuity design to estimate the effect of home computers on child and adolescent outcomes by exploiting a voucher program in Romania. Our main results indicate that home computers have both positive and negative effects on the development of human capital. Children who won a voucher to purchase a computer had significantly lower school grades but show improved computer skills. There is also some evidence that winning a voucher increased cognitive skills, as measured by Raven's Progressive Matrices. We do not find much evidence for an effect on non-cognitive outcomes. Parental rules regarding homework and computer use attenuate the effects of computer ownership, suggesting that parental monitoring and supervision may be important mediating factors.     

EXAM SCHEDULING AND STUDENT PERFORMANCE

This paper uses data from a single School of a UK university to estimate the impact of a switch from end‐of‐semester to end‐of‐year final exams on student performance. The identification strategy exploits the fact that while the timing of final exams changed, the timing of mid‐term exams remained the same. Estimates are based on a difference‐in‐differences methodology that compares final and mid‐term exam scores after the switch, with final and mid‐term exam scores before the switch. The empirical findings suggest that the shift of final exams to the end of the academic year had a negative effect on student achievement. Many changes in higher education are often done on the basis of financial, administrative or ideological considerations, underestimating the magnitude of their effect on student learning and student performance.     

Reforms to Schooling in the UK: A Review of Some Major Reforms and their Evaluation

Abstract. We aim to give a brief overview of some important reforms to the school system in the UK and existing evidence on their consequences. These reforms include a change in the type of secondary school open to pupils – from a selective to comprehensive system; a change in the examination system; quasi-market reforms; area-based initiatives; reforms to the content and structure of teaching; payments to encourage the pursuit of education beyond compulsory schooling.     

Decentralized targeting of an antipoverty program

Developing country governments often delegate authority over the targeting of antipoverty programs to community organizations, while retaining control over how much goes to each community. We offer a theoretical characterization of the information structure in such programs and the interconnected behavior of the various players. Our model motivates an econometric specification for explaining distributional outcomes. Results for Bangladesh's Food-for-Education (FFE) Program indicate that within-village targeting improved with program size, lower land inequality, less remoteness, fewer shocks, and less private redistribution. There is no sign that the center took account of village attributes conducive to reaching the poor.     

A dynamic analysis of the demand for health insurance and health care

We find that asymmetric information is important for the uptake of supplementary private health insurance and health care utilization. We use dynamic panel data models to investigate the sources of asymmetric information and distinguish short-run selection effects into insurance from long-run selection effects. Short-run selection effects (i.e. responses to shocks) are adverse, but small in size. Also long-run effects driven by differences in, for example, preferences and risk aversion, are small. But we find some evidence for multidimensional asymmetric information. For example, mental health causes advantageous selection. Estimates of health care utilization models suggest that moral hazard is not important.     

Evaluation of the Reggio approach to early education

We evaluate the Reggio Approach using non-experimental data on individuals from the cities of Reggio Emilia, Parma and Padova belonging to one of five age cohorts: ages 50, 40, 30, 18, and 6 as of 2012. The treated were exposed to municipally offered infant-toddler (ages 0–3) and preschool (ages 3–6) programs in Reggio Emilia. The control group either did not receive formal childcare or were exposed to programs offered by municipal systems (outside of Reggio Emilia), or by state or religious systems (in all three cities). We exploit the city-cohort structure of the data to estimate treatment effects using three strategies: difference-in-differences, matching, and matched-difference-in-differences. Most positive and significant effects are generated from comparisons of the treated with individuals who did not receive formal childcare. Relative to not receiving formal care, the Reggio Approach significantly boosts outcomes related to employment, socio-emotional skills, high school graduation, participation in elections, and obesity. Comparisons with individuals exposed to alternative forms of childcare do not yield strong patterns of positive and significant effects. This suggests that differences between the Reggio Approach and other alternatives are not sufficiently large to result in significant differences in outcomes. This interpretation is supported by a survey we conduct, which documents increasing similarities in the administrative and pedagogical practices of childcare systems in the three cities over time.     

Household savings constraints,uncertainty and macroprudential policy

We investigate the impact of macroprudential policy on Irish households' perception of savings adequacy, with a particular focus on households intending to purchase a home. These measures tighten loan-to-value ratios and raise the entry cost for home purchase. We find that the measures have had a significant impact on savings constraints. Indeed, constrained potential buyers, who are planning to purchase, but not presently saving to buy a home, are the group most affected as the macroprudential rules increase the downpayment size required. Heterogeneous effects across households indicate younger, private renting households, and those with relatively uncertain cash flows.     

Exports,Supply Constraints and Growth: An Investigation using Regional Data

In this work we first model the role of demand‐ and supply‐side factors (labour market adjustment, productive efficiency) in explaining economic growth. Empirically testing the model, we evaluate why different growth regimes may appear in the 20 Italian administrative regions. This exercise uses a two‐stage econometric approach. Estimates for the elasticity of manufacturing output to exports are obtained from regional time series: a significant long‐run relationship indicates the existence of a demand‐constrained growth regime. We then ascertain whether the regional dispersion of supply‐side factors has an impact on the regional dispersion of growth regimes. The empirical evidence supports our expectations of strong regional differences. Southern regions are less likely to display demand‐constrained regimes. In explanation of these differences, second‐stage analysis reveals that a strong role is played by such efficiency‐enhancing factors as technological innovation, bank diffusion and ‘social capital’. No role is found for labour market rigidities.     

Who actually goes to university?

Access to higher education (HE) is a major policy issue in England and Wales. There is concern that children from lower socio-economic backgrounds are far less likely to get a degree. We analyse the changing association between socio-economic background and the likelihood of going to university, using data from the Youth Cohort Study (YCS), spanning the period 1994–2000. We find evidence of substantial social class inequality in HE participation but conclude that this is largely due to education inequalities that emerge earlier in the education system. Conditional on GCSE and A level performance, we find no additional role for socio-economic background or parental education in determining pupils’ likelihood of going to university.     

Do Long‐Term Unemployed Workers Benefit from Targeted Wage Subsidies?

We evaluate a wage subsidy program that is targeted at long‐term unemployed workers in Germany. We use an alternative identification procedure compared to empirical studies conducted so far. Exploiting the particular program regulations and large administrative data we estimate the impact of program availability using a regression discontinuity framework. Our results suggest no significant impact of the availability of the subsidy on labor market outcomes of the target group. Even though our analysis lacks some statistical power, our findings do not support the substantial positive effects obtained from matching studies. As our approach does not require observability of all drivers of selection, previous empirical studies justifying government expenditures on wage subsidies based on matching methods should be reconsidered.     

Spillovers from regulating corporate campaign contributions

Populist clamor and recent Supreme Court decisions have renewed calls for increased regulation of corporate money in politics. Few empirical estimates exist, however, on the implications of existing rules on firms’ political spending. Exploiting within firm-cycle cross-candidate variation and across firm-cycle variation, we demonstrate that the regulation of PAC campaign contributions generates large spillovers into other corporate political expenditures such as lobbying. Using both high dimensional fixed effects and regression discontinuity designs, we demonstrate that firms constrained by campaign contribution limits spend between $549,000 and $1.6M more on lobbying per election cycle, an amount that is more than 100 times the campaign contribution limit. These results demonstrate that, similar to regulations in other domains of the economy, constraining specific corporate political activities often yields unintended effects.