Position-Dependent order effects on the prediction of consumer preferences in repeated choice experiments

Using stated choice data collected by experimental design with repeated choice tasks, this study developed an approach to quantify the position-dependent order effects on the prediction of preferences and marginal willingness to pay for product attributes. Results showed that repeated choice tasks allow learning to occur. Models with order effect adjustments showed significant improvements in goodness of fit. Attribute-specific polynomial trends showed the best fit among all models, which could possibly be explained by respondents’ familiarity and sensitivity to different product attributes. Repeated-choice experiments have a good potential to capture consumer preferences more accurately than the single-choice design. But order effects need to be taken into account for preferences and market prediction.     

The possibility of using search traffic information to explore consumer product attitudes and forecast consumer preference

In recent years, many researchers have devoted their attention to using search traffic information gathered from Google Insights to carry out consumer attitude research. The purpose of this study is to assess the effectiveness of using search traffic information to analyze actual consumer attitudes regarding a product. By comparing the results of conventional survey-based attitude research with the results of search traffic information, this study reveals that search traffic information indicates consumers' level of interest regarding a product, the product attributes that they are considering, and the importance of each attribute to them. Also, it demonstrates the potential benefits of search traffic analysis, which can be useful for forecasting consumer preferences regarding products. Focusing on the Prius, a hybrid car, this study shows that search traffic information serves as an accurate indicator of consumer attitudes, and even succeeds in identifying consumers' hidden attitudes toward the Prius, which can be explained by cognitive dissonance theory. Finally, this study utilizes search traffic information to forecast changes in consumer attitudes and to develop an econometric model of consumer demand for the Prius by incorporating environmental variables such as the WTI (West Texas Intermediate) price. This study concludes that search traffic information offers new potential advantages, in that it not only overcomes the limitations imposed by the high cost of conducting surveys, in terms of money and time, but also helps to reduce the distortions caused by conscious or unconscious errors committed by survey respondents.     

Consumer demand for local honey

How to best target and attract niche market consumers is an important marketing problem for producers of specialty agricultural products. It is particularly an issue in the honey market where consumers increasingly face media messages regarding threats to honey bee health, honey adulteration and health benefits of locally produced honey. Using auction experiments, this research evaluates consumer behaviour related to informational messages about honey that is produced locally, domestically and internationally. Results from 115 adult consumers show that consumers’ demand for honey varies significantly based on the geographic location of the honey’s production, product packaging and the information they have about the product. Consumers demonstrate greater demand for locally produced honey, especially when provided information about negative aspects of internationally produced honey that include adulteration. This shows that such negative media attention on specialty products offers small producers an opportunity to increase profitability by marketing themselves as a specialized niche alternative.     

Polling games and information revelation in the Downsian framework

We investigate the incentives faced by poll respondents when candidates use polling data to inform their selection of policy platforms. Focusing on models with a unidimensional policy space, single peaked preferences and two office-seeking candidates observing a summary statistic from polls that ask respondents their preferences, we find that for most environments honest poll response cannot occur in a perfect Bayesian equilibrium. However, simple partially-revealing equilibria exist when the poll only asks respondents which party or candidate they prefer. When the candidates learn the sample average or see all the data, there are partially revealing equilibria that mimic those of the binary message game. Interpretation of polling data requires knowledge of the equilibrium played as the meanings of poll responses are endogenously determined. The analysis suggests that naive use of polling data may be misleading.     

Exploring the market for breakthrough technologies

In this article, the gap between futures research (long term) and market research (short term) is closed in two ways. Firstly, by describing methods of market exploration that can be used earlier on in the process of development and diffusion of breakthrough technologies, so market research can be applied along with futures research. Secondly, the gap is closed by actually combining futures research and market research. We start the article from the perspective of the market research discipline and describe the problems in market research that require new approaches. The validity of market research results is often low when breakthrough technologies enter the market. To investigate this problem, assumptions for valid market research results are presented. In some cases, when breakthrough technologies first enter the market, these assumptions do not hold and market research becomes problematic whereas in other cases customers' needs and preferences are not an issue at all and attention focuses on technological issues. Potential solutions to explore the market in the former cases are suggested. Four approaches are distinguished: (1) adapting existing methods; (2) combining consumer research with market structure analysis or futures research; (3) using theoretic models; and (4) probe and learn approaches. These approaches require different subsets of assumptions and are therefore applicable in different situations.     

FARMERS’ WILLINGNESS TO INVEST IN NEW COOPERATIVE INSTRUMENTS: A CHOICE EXPERIMENT

Globalization of agricultural markets put pressures on producer cooperatives to invest in expansion and growth to safeguard their competitiveness. Availability of capital is limited if farmers do not have incentives to increase their capital contribution. Cooperative literature recognizes the residual rights, transferability, and the appreciation potential of the investment as the potential solutions for the problems that may impede cooperative investments. The objective of this study is to understand farmer preferences regarding investment attributes and the potential for attracting investment capital from members and non‐members. We employ a choice experiment method to test new cooperative investment instruments. The data consist of a questionnaire conducted with 406 Finnish dairy farmers. Random parameter latent class logit model is used in the estimation of the data. The results indicate that most of the respondents regard the new investment instruments positively. However, farmers prefer restricting ownership rights to members. Incentives for members to participate in financing cooperative growth could be designed with capital‐based residual rights, mechanisms for transferability and for the appreciation of firm value. Estimation that considered choice difficulty improved model fit, which highlights the need to address respondent burden also in future studies of hypothetical investments in order to produce unbiased estimates.     

Attending to the Reasons for Attribute Non-attendance in Choice Experiments

This paper focuses on behavioural reasons underlying stated attribute non-attendance in choice experiments. In order to identify and incorporate procedures for dealing with heterogeneous attribute processing strategies, we ask respondents follow-up questions regarding their reasons for ignoring attributes. Based on these statements, we conclude that the standard way of assigning a zero impact of ignored attributes on the likelihood is inappropriate. We find that some respondents act in accordance with the passive bounded rationality assumption since they ignore an attribute simply because it does not affect their utility. Excluding these genuine zero preferences, as the standard approach essentially does, might bias results. Other respondents claim to have ignored attributes to simplify choices. However, we find that these respondents have actually not completely ignored attributes. We argue along the rationally adaptive behavioural model that valid preference information may indeed be elicited in these cases, and we illustrate how recoding of non-attendance statements conditional on stated reasons may be a more appropriate solution than the current standard way of taking stated non-attendance into account.     

Socially responsible products: what motivates consumers to pay a premium?

The motivation to pay a premium for socially responsible products is partly an expression of consumer concern for the well-being of those involved in the production process. Buying a product with a socially responsible label, and donating to a charity are similarly motivated actions. While there is an extensive literature on the economics of charitable giving that examines motivations to donate as well as on the impacts of labelling on consumer demand, there is little overlap between the two literatures. We bridge these two literatures by investigating whether consumers have heterogeneous motivations for paying a premium. Through a laboratory experiment that auctions coffee with hypothetical socially responsible labels that put different weights on in-kind versus cash transfers, we find that those consumers who prefer an in-kind transfer (paternalistic altruists) are willing to pay a 52.5% price premium over standard coffee. Those who prefer that most of the premium is paid as cash (strong altruists) are willing to pay a 42.5% premium. Finally, those who are indifferent to how the premium is spent by the recipient (warm-glow givers) are willing to pay only a 19.2% premium. We discuss the implications of our results and future research directions.     

Finiteness property with vertical and horizontal differentiation: does it really matter?

The paper proves the consistency of vertical and horizontal differentiation models regarding the finiteness property. In the case of constant returns, it turns out that the attitude of consumers towards products sold at marginal costs is crucial for the finiteness property to hold or not. We first prove concerning the finiteness property results with horizontal preferences consistent with results already obtained with vertical preferences. Second we prove with vertical and horizontal preferences, a new type of result relative to the existing literature: the existence of an indifferent consumer and a population unanimous w.r.t. their most preferred variant when all variants are sold at marginal cost, is sufficient to allow to an unbounded number of firms to be active. In the case of non-constant returns, it is the cost structure in a neighborhood of the zero output that drives the market structure. Results consistent with results already proved with vertical preferences, are proved with horizontal preferences. Finally, existence results with horizontal preferences are provided to show that the demonstrated properties have cases of application.     

Modelling Heterogeneity in Response Behaviour Towards a Sequence of Discrete Choice Questions: A Probabilistic Decision Process Model

There is a growing body of evidence in the non-market valuation literature suggesting that responses to a sequence of discrete choice questions tend to violate the assumptions typically made by analysts regarding independence of responses and stability of preferences. Decision processes (or heuristics) such as value learning and strategic misrepresentation have been offered as explanations for these results. While a few studies have tested these heuristics as competing hypotheses, none has investigated the possibility that each explains the response behaviour of a subgroup of the population. In this paper, we make a contribution towards addressing this research gap by presenting a probabilistic decision process model designed to estimate the proportion of respondents employing defined heuristics. We demonstrate the model on binary and multinomial choice data sources and find three distinct types of response behaviour. The results suggest that accounting for heterogeneity in response behaviour may be a better way forward than attempting to identify a single heuristic to explain the behaviour of all respondents.     

The market for preferences

Learning processes are widely held to be the mechanism by whichboundedly rational agents adapt to environmental changes. Weargue that this same outcome might also be achieved by a differentmechanism, namely specialisation and the division of knowledge,which we here extend to the consumer side of the economy. Wedistinguish between high-level preferences and low-level preferencesas nested systems of rules used to solve particular choice problems.We argue that agents, while sovereign in high-level preferences,may often find it expedient to acquire, in a pseudo-market,the low-level preferences in order to make good choices whenpurchasing complex commodities about which they have littleor no experience. A market for preferences arises when environmentalcomplexity overwhelms learning possibilities and leads agentsto make use of other people's specialised knowledge and decisionrules.     

Consumers’ preferences for a local food product: a real choice experiment

This paper analyses consumers’ preferences for a local food in Spain and assesses their willingness to pay (WTP) using a real choice experiment to mitigate possible hypothetical bias. In particular, preferences for fresh lamb meat were investigated and two attributes evaluated, “locally grown” and the type of lamb meat. Data came from an experiment conducted in Spain during 2009. An error component random Parameter model with correlated errors was used to estimate the effect of the attributes on consumers’ utility and derive their WTP. Results suggest that consumers positively value both attributes and are willing to pay a premium of 9 % price increase for the “locally grown” lamb meat (“Ojinegra from Teruel”) and 13 % price increase for the “Ternasco” lamb meat. If we assume a market where only “Ternasco” lamb meat without indication of the local origin is sold, and then a new “Ternasco” lamb is introduced in the market with the “Ojinegra from Teruel” label, this new local lamb meat would capture 18 % of the market if the package is assumed to be sold at 3.5 \(\hbox {C}\!\!\!\!\!=\) and a 10 % market share if the package is assumed to be sold at 4 \(\hbox {C}\!\!\!\!\!=\) .     

Effects of income and social awareness on consumer WTP for social product attributes

Recent developments in environmental and animal welfare issues, and the introduction of new production practices may have affected consumer attitudes and preferences toward differentiated product choice. Factors such as animal well-being, environmentally friendly production, and the use of antibiotics appear to be increasingly core consumer concerns. We link the aforementioned with Maslow's hierarchy of needs suggesting that the higher income consumers should be more altruistic in their consumptive behavior and test this by evaluating consumer preferences for these attributes in pork chops. We also test whether social consciousness of the consumers translates into choice behavior. Data was obtained by choice experiment surveys and mixed logit estimation was used to estimate consumers' willingness-to-pay for the credence attributes. Results reveal that both, higher income and socially aware consumers are on average willing to pay higher premiums for the antibiotic-free attribute, but not for other two social attributes. Also, the group of higher income consumers is highly heterogeneous in their preferences, whereas socially aware consumers tend to be more homogeneous in their preferences.     

Measuring heterogeneity,survey engagement and response quality in preferences for organic products in Nigeria

The identification of the market potentials of organic products is important in the drive towards a sustainable agricultural development in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). However, available evidence shows that valuing attributes of credence goods (such as organic products) while using stated preference methods faces additional obstacles compared to other normal goods. In this study, we examine consumers’ preferences and willingness-to-pay (WTP) for health and environmental attributes of organic products in Nigeria. We employ an approach that allows us to adequately capture the value of organic products by linking part of the heterogeneity across respondents to differences in scale, while making use of indicators of survey engagement, without risks of endogeneity bias and measurement error that arise from the deterministic methods. The empirical results show that market for organic products exists in Nigeria, with reduction in pesticide residues attribute attracting the highest value, followed by the certification programme. Furthermore, we observe that increases in the latent engagement variable lead to a greater probability of agreement with statements relating to survey understanding and realism, and hence more substantive output.     

A comparison of preferences for two GLP-1 products – liraglutide and exenatide – for the treatment of type 2 diabetes

Abstract

Objective:

To use time trade-off (TTO) to compare patient preferences for profiles of two glucagon-like peptide (GLP-1) products for the treatment of type 2 diabetes (liraglutide and exenatide) that vary on four key attributes – efficacy (as measured by hemoglobin A_1C), incidence of nausea, incidence of hypoglycemia, and dosing frequency (QD vs. BID) – and measure the contribution of those attributes to preferences.

Methods:

A total of 382 people with T2DM were recruited to participate in an internet-based survey consisting of a series of health-related questions, a conjoint exercise and a set of time trade-off items. In the conjoint exercise, respondents were presented with eight pairs of hypothetical GLP-1 profiles, and completed a time-tradeoff exercise for each pair.

Results:

The product profile representing liraglutide was preferred by 96% of respondents and resulted in significantly higher health utilities (0.038) than the product profile representing exenatide (0.978 vs. 0.94, p?<?0.05). Estimated preference scores from the conjoint analysis revealed that efficacy measured by hemoglobin A_1C is the most important attribute, followed by nausea, hypoglycemia, and dosing schedule.

Limitations:

On-line participants may not represent ‘typical’ type 2 diabetes patients, and brief product profiles represented results from clinical trials, not clinical practice

Conclusion:

Based on the four attributes presented, patients prefer liraglutide over exenatide. Preference is based on superior efficacy and less nausea more than less hypoglycemia and once-daily dosing.     

Combining stated and revealed choice research to simulate the neighbor effect: The case of hybrid-electric vehicles

According to intuition and theories of diffusion, consumer preferences develop along with technological change. However, most economic models designed for policy simulation unrealistically assume static preferences. To improve the behavioral realism of an energy–economy policy model, this study investigates the “neighbor effect,” where a new technology becomes more desirable as its adoption becomes more widespread in the market. We measure this effect as a change in aggregated willingness to pay under different levels of technology penetration. Focusing on hybrid-electric vehicles (HEVs), an online survey experiment collected stated preference (SP) data from 535 Canadian and 408 Californian vehicle owners under different hypothetical market conditions.Revealed preference (RP) data was collected from the same respondents by eliciting the year, make and model of recent vehicle purchases from regions with different degrees of HEV popularity: Canada with 0.17% new market share, and California with 3.0% new market share. We compare choice models estimated from RP data only with three joint SP–RP estimation techniques, each assigning a different weight to the influence of SP and RP data in coefficient estimates. Statistically, models allowing more RP influence outperform SP influenced models. However, results suggest that because the RP data in this study is afflicted by multicollinearity, techniques that allow more SP influence in the beta estimates while maintaining RP data for calibrating vehicle class constraints produce more realistic estimates of willingness to pay. Furthermore, SP influenced coefficient estimates also translate to more realistic behavioral parameters for CIMS, allowing more sensitivity to policy simulations.     

网络柠檬问题的原因分析——网络企业的视角

较之传统市场,网络市场上的柠檬问题有其特殊的表现形式及原因。本文基于网络企业的视角,将网络柠檬问题的主要表现归纳为网络企业向消费者传递信息、网络消费者信息搜集这两个过程,并将其原因归纳为消费者的有限理性及群体内部知识水平的差异、网络经营者的机会主义行为、网络产品的SEC属性及网络自身的虚拟性等四个方面。文章最后提出了网络经营者可以采取的营销策略,这些策略主要包括充分利用网络中介的作用、声誉转移策略、促成产品属性的转换及顾客参与式的定价策略四个方面。     

Social influence and consumer preference formation for pro-environmental technology: The case of a U.K. workplace electric-vehicle study

We investigate the roles of social influence in the formation of consumer perceptions and preferences for pro-environmental technologies, using the example of battery electric vehicles (BEVs). The context was a technology-based workplace in the U.K. with around 500 members of staff, 57 of whom took part in a BEV experience project in 2010. Several months later, we recruited a diverse sample of 21 staff to complete semi-structured interviews. Following a multi-method approach, we elicited details about their perceptions and valuation of BEVs, experiences with BEVs, and social interactions relating to BEVs. Participants reported a wide variety of perceptions of BEV attributes, including environmental benefits and functional drawbacks. The majority of participants indicated that their BEV perceptions were “highly influenced” by at least one social interaction. We use the reflexive layers of influence conceptual framework to categorize social influence according to three processes: diffusion, the sharing of BEV-related information; translation, the discussion of uncertain BEV benefits and drawbacks; and reflexivity, the relating of BEV technology to self-concept. Findings suggest that participant perceptions change in part through social negotiation of meaning, lifestyle and identity. Neglect of social influence processes will underestimate the potential for shifts in consumer preferences regarding emerging pro-environmental technologies.     

Fairness, price stickiness, and history dependence in decentralized trade

The paper investigates price formation in a decentralized market with random matching. Agents are assumed to have subdued social preferences: buyers, for example, prefer a lower price to a higher one but experience reduced utility increases below a reference price that serves as a common fairness benchmark. The strategic equilibrium reflects market fundamentals, but it is markedly less sensitive to the buyer–seller ratio near the fair price benchmark. Prices may be sticky around very different reference levels in markets with otherwise identical fundamentals. The implied history dependence turns out to be mitigated rather than exacerbated by friction.