Process R&;D and Product Line Deletion by a Multiproduct Monopolist

Relative to single-product firms, a multiproduct monopolist can internalize the negative externalities of its R&D investments (the ``cannibalization effect') in two ways: (1) To lower R&D investment for each product; and (2) To delete some of its product lines so as to enlarge the market size for the remaining lines. It is shown that line deletion is profitable if products are close substitutes. If products are not close substitutes, the multiproduct monopolist keeps all product lines and invests less in cost-reducing R&D than single-product firms engaging in Cournot competition with product differentiation. However, it invests more in R&D than single-product firms if there are significant economies of scope in R&D, or if the oligopolistic firms can cooperate in their R&D decisions.      

Correlated information, mechanism design and informational rents

Crémer and McLean (Econometrica 56 (1988) 1247-1258) obtain a sufficient and necessary condition for full surplus extraction in Bayesian-Nash equilibrium—the rank condition, which McAfee and Reny (Econometrica 60(2) (1992) 395-421) later generalize for continuous type spaces. This paper shows that, if the principal does not know how noisy is the agent's signal—or equivalently, when signals available to an agent can be ranked by Blackwell's informativeness and, an agent's informativeness is independent of others’ information, the rank condition fails to hold. Conversely, when rank condition fails and informational rents are left to an agent, the model can be interpreted as if, the principal were uncertain about the informativeness of the agent's signal.     

Equality of opportunity and optimal cash and in-kind policies

This paper examines the argument for public provision of certain private goods, like education and health, based on equality of opportunity by studying the utility possibility frontier of a society in which there is a concern for the distribution of these goods. A given quality of education or health services can be consumed for free in the public sector, but people can opt-out and purchase their desired quality levels in the private sector. Some of the conclusions are: (i) a pure cash transfer is optimal when the utility redistribution is either “sufficiently” small or large; (ii) if and only if both the equality-of-opportunity concern and the utility redistribution are large enough, can an in-kind program which attracts the whole population be justified; (iii) even when everybody chooses the in-kind program, it may be optimal to perform some additional utility redistribution by increasing the size of such program.     

Voluntary import expansions with non‐stationary demand

Abstract.  In this paper the effect of voluntary imports expansions (VIEs) on welfare in a dynamic game is analysed. It is found that (1) there exists a Markov perfect Nash equilibrium (MPNE) and a unique stable steady state; (2) with habit formation in consumption, the welfare and output for each firm are higher than that without habit formation; and (3) VIEs can increase an importing country's welfare with raised consumption and lowered price. Therefore, VIEs can be voluntary to an importing country. JEL classification: F13, F12     

On recombinant estimation for experimental data

The recombinant estimation technique of Mullin and Reiley (2006) can be a useful tool for analyzing data from normal-form games. The recombinant estimator falls within a general category of statistics known as U-statistics. This classification has both theoretical and practical implications: (1) the recombinant estimator is optimal (minimum variance) among unbiased estimators, (2) there is a computationally simple method for computing its asymptotic standard error, and (3) the estimation technique can be extended to multiple outcomes and to other types of inferential procedures commonly used for experimental data, such as the sign test. Simulation evidence suggests that researchers should use the asymptotic standard error rather than the standard error of Mullin and Reiley (2006) since the latter exhibits a downward bias. JEL Classification C12, C90 Although the idea of recombinant estimation appears previously in the literature (for example, Mitzkewitz and Nagel (1993) and Mehta et al. (1994)), Mullin and Reiley (2006) is the first attempt at formalizing the econometric methodology and proposing a method for standard-error calculation.     

Two-period cycles in a three-period overlapping generations model

We study the properties of two-period monetary cycles in simple pure exchange overlapping generations economies in which the households live for three periods. We demonstrate that these economies can support cycles under a much broader—and, arguably, more plausible—range of assumptions than the analogous two-period economies. We show that economies that fail the well-known Grandmont (Econometrica 53 (1985) 995) condition can have cycles, and that economies that satisfy the condition can fail to have cycles. In addition, we show that economies can have monetary cycles when they do not have conventional monetary steady states, and when aggregate demand for assets is not decreasing in the real return rate at a gross real rate of unity.     

Cost-effectiveness of Viridal Duo compared to MUSE and Viagra in the treatment of erectile dysfunction in the UK - a preliminary model

Summary

This study estimated the cost-effectiveness of starting erectile dysfunction (ED) treatment with Viridal Duo relative to MUSE and Viagra over one year, from the perspective of the National Health Service. Decision analysis techniques were used to estimate the expected costs and consequences of managing ED, stratified by initial treatment. The model was based on estimates of clinical outcome and resource use obtained from published literature and a Delphi panel.

Viridal Duo is a registered trademark of Schwarz Pharma;

MUSE is a registered trademark of Astra Pharmaceuticals;

Viagra is a registered trademark of Pfizer Consumer Healthcare

Starting ED treatment with Viridal Duo instead of Viagra leads to an average 0.8 additional months during which a man can achieve successful erections (from 6.5 to 7.3 months) over one year, for an additional cost of £106 per patient (from £369 to £475). Starting ED treatment with Viagra instead of MUSE leads to an average 1.1 additional months during which a man can achieve successful erections (from 5.4 to 6.5 months) over one year and reduces the cost per patient by £85 (from £454 to £369).

Fifty-two percent of patients who start treatment with Viridal Duo continue successfully over one year. This compares to 38% and 18% of patients who start treatment with Viagra and MUSE respectively. Eighty-seven percent of the total success with Viridal Duo can be directly attributed to this treatment when used first-line. In contrast, 68% and 44% of the total success attributed to Viagra and MUSE respectively can be attributed to these treatments when chosen first-line. Moreover, an additional 44% and 27% of the expected total success with MUSE and Viagra is attributable to Viridal Duo.

Starting ED treatment with Viridal Duo rather than MUSE, when Viagra is either unavailable or contraindicated, increases the period during which a man can achieve successful erections by 1.8 months (from 5.5 to 7.3 months) for an additional cost of £14 per patient (from £460 to £474). Additionally, in patients who have previously failed Viagra, starting second-line treatment with Viridal Duo rather than MUSE leads to an average 1.6 additional months during which a man can achieve successful erections (from 4.0 to 5.6 months) over one year and reduces the cost per patient by £15 (from £493 to £478).

In conclusion, Viridal Duo is clinically more effective than Viagra and MUSE. Therefore, starting ED treatment with Viridal Duo instead of Viagra or MUSE increases the period during which a man can achieve successful erections, albeit for an additional cost. In patients who have previously failed first-line treatment with Viagra, starting second-line treatment with Viridal Duo instead of MUSE increases the period during which a man can achieve successful erections (by 40% at one year) and reduces healthcare costs (by £15 per patient).     

金融消费者保护:市场失灵、政府介入与道德风险的防范

金融消费者保护成为次贷危机后金融改革的一个重要方面。文章认为,在金融交易中,金融消费者处于弱势地位,金融消费者需要保护。市场可以对消费者提供一定的保护,但是由于市场失灵,无法给金融消费者提供充分的保护,也无法从根本上解决金融消费者保护问题。金融消费者需要政府(管理部门)来提供保护,但是政府并不必然比市场聪明,也会出现监管失灵。监管者的专业知识要高于普通消费者,关键是要不断提高政府提供保护(监管者保护)的有效性,防止政府失灵。加强金融消费者保护的同时,必须防范道德风险和逆向选择。     

The importance of the design of market-based instruments for CO2 mitigation: An AGE analysis for Spain

In the past few decades, economists have defended the use of market-based instruments (MBI) in environmental and climate policy. There have been many papers which have compared the costs of attaining environmental objectives with MBIs and with command and control instruments. However very few have compared different MBIs in examining these costs. This paper seeks to analyse various MBIs for CO₂ mitigation from the viewpoint of cost-effectiveness, using an AGE (applied general equilibrium) model for the case of Spain. A distinction is drawn between (1) quantity instruments, which represent different extents of a market for emission permits; and (2) price instruments, which represent different types of tax. Each instrument can affect different segments of the emission sources and therefore can have very different effects on the economy as a whole. We show how MBI can help to minimise mitigation costs, but also how taxes and tradable emission permits that are limited or constrained by many exemptions and distortions can raise costs considerably.     

Estimating input-mix efficiency in a parametric framework: application to state-level agricultural data for the United States

ABSTRACT

This paper contributes to the productivity literature by demonstrating novel econometric methods to estimate input-mix efficiency (IME) in a parametric framework. Input-mix efficiency is defined as the potential improvement in productivity with change in input mix. Any change in input-mix (e.g., land to labou r ratio) will result in change in productivity. The advantage of this approach is that it does not require data on input prices to estimate the mix efficiency levels. A nonlinear input-aggregator function (e.g., Constant Elasticity of Substitution) is used to derive an expression for input-mix efficiency. Bayesian stochastic frontier is estimated for obtaining mix efficiency using US state-level agricultural data for the period 1960–2004. Significant variation in input-mix efficiency is noted across the states and regions, attributable to diverse topographic and geographic conditions. Furthermore, comparisons of allocative and mix efficiencies provide insightful policy implications. The production incentives such as taxes and subsidies could help farmers in adjusting their input mix in response to changes in input prices, which can affect the US agricultural productivity significantly. The proposed methodology can be extended by i) using flexible functional forms; ii) introducing various time- and region-varying input aggregators; and iii) defining more sophisticated weights for input aggregators.     

The role of social and technical excludability for the success of impure public good and common pool agreements: The case of international fisheries

We argue that international fisheries are a prime example to study the incentive structure of forming impure public good and common pool agreements. We consider a fully integrated multiple zone model, in which zones are linked through density-dependent migration. The incentive to accede to Regional Fishery Management Organizations (RFMOs) is related to multiple characteristics. Firstly, the relative patch sizes of the high seas, which is the internationally (publicly) accessible domain, compared to exclusive economic zones, which are state-owned (privately owned). This can be related to the degree of socially constructed excludability. Secondly, the intensity of fish migration between various zones, which can be related to the degree of technical excludability. Thirdly, the growth rate of the resource, which can be interpreted as the degree of rivalry, with a low (high) degree of rivalry approximating public good (common pool) features. We show that, generally, excludability reduces free-riding incentives but also the need for cooperation, a variant of the “paradox of cooperation”. Moreover, we show that the benefit-cost duality between public goods and common pool resources generally holds except for some extreme parameter values for which a low degree of rivalry fosters the success of cooperation. Finally, through a variation of the diffusion matrix, we can also analyze a closed as well as a sink-source system.     

A sensitivity analysis in a nonlinear Leontief model

Conclusion We have shown that in a nonlinear Leontief model where non-decreasing returns are allowed for, if some elements of the final demand vector are increased, then each activity level (i. e., gross output) goes up or remain unchanged and the maximum rate of increase in activity levels must be realized among those sectors for which the final demand is raised. It is also shown that this maximum rate of increase in activity levels is not greater than the maximum rate of increase in the final demands.It should be noted that we do not require the indecomposability ofA (x). WhenA (x) is indecomposable, the final demand vector can be allowed to be non-zero nonnegative, and we can derive a set of propositions similar to those presented in this article.     

Testing for poverty dominance: an application to Canada

Abstract The paper proposes and applies statistical tests for poverty dominance that check for whether poverty comparisons can be made robustly over ranges of poverty lines and classes of poverty indices. This helps provide both normative and statistical confidence in establishing poverty rankings across distributions. The tests, which can take into account the complex sampling procedures that are typically used by statistical agencies to generate household‐level surveys, are implemented using the Canadian Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics (SLID) for 1996, 1999, and 2002. Although the yearly cumulative distribution functions cross at the lower tails of the distributions, the more recent years tend to dominate earlier years for a relatively wide range of poverty lines. Failing to take into account SLID’s sampling variability (as is sometimes done) can inflate significantly one’s confidence in ranking poverty. Taking into account SLID’s complex sampling design (as has not been done before) can also decrease substantially the range of poverty lines over which a poverty ranking can be inferred.     

上海市少子老龄化与可持续发展

在概述21世纪上半叶上海市户籍少子老龄化主要特点的基础上,从实施可持续发展战略高度,建议探讨充分发挥少子老龄化的正面效应,尽可能把负面效应转化为正面效应的政策措施;采取既有利于更多吸纳年轻人才,又不使未来老龄化水平过高的替代性人口流迁战略;制定既不使未来中国总人口过多,又有利干减缓老龄问题的现行生育政策调整方案;寻求既不会加重失业问题,又有利于减缓城镇职工基本养老保险基金压力的推迟职工退休年龄的最佳时机;切实推进以“终身保健”为基础、大病保障为重点的医疗卫生服务体系;不断完善以居家养老为主,按适度比例加快养老设施发展的生活照料体系。     

PARTICIPATION OF FIRMS IN VOLUNTARY ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION PROGRAMS: AN ANALYSIS OF CORPORATE SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY AND CAPITAL MARKET PERFORMANCE

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) employs voluntary programs as a policy instrument to encourage firms to go beyond mere compliance with laws and regulations in protecting the environment. Based on event study methodology, this paper tests for abnormal stock market returns from membership in the National Environmental Performance Track (NEPT) program. The analysis shows that there is strong evidence that acceptance of a facility to the NEPT adds significantly to the market capitalization of the accepted firms. Corporate social responsibility can be financially rewarding for firms and voluntary programs of the EPA can be an effective complement to performance‐based regulatory instruments. (JEL G14, Q58)     

三种国债拍卖方式的拍卖收入比较研究

国债拍卖主要有美国式拍卖、荷兰式拍卖与混合式拍卖三种,但究竟哪一种拍卖方式的拍卖收入最大?学术界迄今尚无定论。文章对W-Z模型进行扩展,并在此基础上通过结合不同市场利率环境下投标者的不同风险偏好进行比较研究。结果表明:(1)当市场利率趋升时,若非竞争性投标量较大,则混合式拍卖收入最大;若非竞争性投标量较小,但竞争性投标者较少,且市场利率上升趋势极强,则同样是混合式拍卖收入最大,反之则荷兰式拍卖收入最大。(2)当市场利率趋降时,美国式拍卖收入最大。(3)当市场利率平稳时,何种拍卖方式收入最大无法确定。     

The capital asset pricing model in economic perspective

The capital asset pricing model (CAPM) is theoretically incomplete in its demand-side focus, risk-averse investors and internally inconsistent homogeneous beliefs; is not conclusively supported empirically; and yet it legitimizes a notion that investors can earn higher returns by bearing undiversifiable risk. Our article does not merely extend the CAPM with more realistic assumptions, it completes its original framework by including (1) risk-taking investors in the investor population, (2) investors who can have heterogeneous expectations or beliefs – an overlooked but required condition for the CAPM to be an internally consistent and meaningful model of competitive financial asset pricing under uncertainty and (3) a positive-sloped short-run supply curve based on a reasonable interpretation of the nature of financial asset trade. Upon a complete economic interpretation, it is shown that the equilibrium (systematic) risk-rate of return relationship depends on whose aggregate trading activity dominates, risk-averse or risk-taking investors’. There is no universal, or even general, positive relationship between systematic risk and rate of return. This has far-reaching implications for investors and investment advisors who serve them.     

Data Envelopment Analysis of different climate policy scenarios

Recent developments in the political, scientific and economic debate on climate change suggest that it is of critical importance to develop new approaches able to compare policy scenarios for their environmental effectiveness, their distributive effects, their enforceability, their costs and many other dimensions. This paper discusses a quantitative methodology to assess the relative performance of different climate policy scenarios when accounting for their long-term economic, social and environmental impacts. The proposed procedure is based on Data Envelopment Analysis, here employed in evaluating the relative efficiency of eleven global climate policy scenarios. The methodology provides a promising comparison framework; it can be seen as a way of setting some basic guidelines to frame further debates and negotiations and can be flexibly adopted and modified by decision makers to obtain relevant information for policy design. Three major findings emerge from this analysis: (i) stringent climate policies can outperform less ambitious proposals if all sustainability dimensions are taken into account; (ii) a carefully chosen burden-sharing rule is able to bring together climate stabilisation and equity considerations; and (iii) the most inefficient strategy results from the failure to negotiate a post-2012 global climate agreement.     

Multiple generation product life cycle predictions using a novel two-stage fuzzy piecewise regression analysis method

Product life cycle (PLC) prediction plays a crucial role in strategic planning and policy definition for high-technology products. Forecast methodologies which can predict PLCs accurately can help to achieve successful strategic decision-making, forecasting, and foresight activities in high-technology firms, research institutes, governments, and universities. Over the past few decades, even though analytic framework strategies have been proposed for production, marketing, R&D (research and development), and finance, aiming at each stage of PLCs, forecast methodologies with which to predict PLCs are few. The purpose of this research is to develop a novel forecast methodology to allow for predictions of product life time (PLT) and the annual shipment of products during the entire PLC of multiple generation products. A novel two-stage fuzzy piecewise regression analysis method is proposed in this paper. In the first stage, the product life-time of the specific generation to be analyzed will be predicted by the fuzzy piecewise regression line that is derived based upon the product life-time of earlier generations. In the second stage of the forecast methodology, the annual shipment of products of the specified generation will be predicted by deriving annual fuzzy regression lines for each generation, based upon the historical data on the earlier generations' products. An empirical study predicting the life-time and the annual shipment of the 16 Mb (Mega bit) DRAM (Dynamic Random Access Memory) PLC is illustrated to validate the analytical process. The results demonstrate that two-stage fuzzy piecewise regression analysis can predict multiple generation PLT and PLC precisely, thereby serving as a foundation for future strategic planning, policy definitions and foresights.