石油行业上市公司财务绩效综合评价研究

石油是一种不可再生的优质基础能源,其供应量的大小不仅关系到国家经济社会的发展和人民生活的质量,而且对国防安全也起到了重要的作用.由于石油行业上市公司在石油产品供应中起着重要的作用,是国家石油有效供应的微观主体,因此,如何有效地衡量石油行业上市公司整体运营绩效对于准确把握国家石油供应能力有着重要的意义.基于此,石油行业上市公司在石油产品供应中所起的作用,本文构建了石油行业上市公司财务评价指标体系,并运用因子分析模型对我国13家石油行业上市公司2010年的财务绩效进行了综合评价,得出了各上市公司财务绩效的综合排序,并从股本扩张能力、偿债能力、盈利能力、资产管理能力和成长能力五个方面探讨了其影响因素,为各石油行业上市公司财务业绩的改进及石油的可特续供应提供了科学的决策依据和方向.     

我国石油进口风险分析及对策

石油是关系国民经济、社会发展和国家安全的重要战略资源。石油进口依存度的增加和油价的频繁大幅波动、进口来源过于依赖中东和进口运输必须经过马六甲海峡的现状,使我国石油进口面临巨大的风险。为此,必须加强宏观调控;实施多元化进口战略;积极开发利用全球石油资源;大力推进节能和能源结构调整;积极建立国家石油战略储备,以化解石油进口风险、确保石油供应安全。     

中国石油安全的三个层次及政策侧重点分析

石油安全不是一个单纯的石油供应问题,实际上分为三个层次:第一层次是供应安全,即从实体经济中的石油实物供应上来说,具有一定的应急能力;第二层次是制度安全,其核心是原油、成品油的价格形成机制的市场化;第三层次是金融安全,即石油在金融属性意义上的安全。金融安全意味着不仅交易双方能在市场中进行实物交易,还能主动通过金融工具进行实物交易风险的规避和分散。石油安全的三个层次是逐层递进的:第一层次是整个石油安全体系的根基和战略主动性的根本力量来源;第二层次,即市场化的价格形成机制,承上启下;第三层次,源于石油走向金融化是能源大国、金融大国的必然趋势。确保第一层次石油安全,财政政策更为显性,如战略石油储备、税收政策调节等;确保第二层次石油安全,则主要依靠综合性的市场化方向的体制改革,确保第三层次石油安全,金融政策更为显性,如建立石油金融交易所和拓展石油金融交易品种和风险监管等。     

聚焦我国的石油安全战略

石油安全是一个复杂的系统工程，树立正确的石油安全观、正确看待我国石油安全问题，是制定石油安全战略，保障我国石油供应安全的基础。中国石油安全形势在国际环境中面临机遇也面临挑战，采取积极措施，规避石油安全风险，势在必行。     

论中国和平发展的石油安全战略

随着中国石油安全问题的凸显,我们不仅应大力开展能源外交,拓展海外供应基地,强化海权,构筑油道,加强国际合作,而且还要开源节流、结构多元,并以石油战略储备为中心.以"石油金融"为载体,以"风险采购"为切入点,构筑应付油价暴涨和短期供应中断的风险屏障体系,做到两翼并举.同时应把转变传统经济发展模式,大力发展氢经济作为战略中心付诸实施,即要确立"一个中心、两个基本点"的石油安全战略,走上和平发展的能源之道.     

我国石油储备的必要性分析

本文从经济学供需分析的视角,采取计量的方法,分析我国石油储备建立的必要性。建立石油储备是我国国内需求不断攀升的需要,是我国国民经济稳定发展的需要,可以避免油价的大幅波动,减少石油供应中断风险,减少国家的外汇支出。     

考虑价格因素的原油进口多元化路径研究

价格风险是我国原油进口面临的主要风险之一,通过构建我国原油进口的价格-风险模型,量化研究了我国原油进口来源国的最优风险结构。结论显示,中东地区依然是我国最重要的原油进口来源地,进口更多来自政治稳定地区的原油,可以有效地分散我国原油的供应风险。从长期来看,我国需要积极拓展更多的石油供应渠道,进一步提高从阿联酋、美国、澳大利亚、加拿大、哈萨克斯坦、埃及以及卡塔尔的进口量,保证我国的原油进口安全。     

关于建立我国石油安全体系的思考

石油供应事关国家经济安全，石油输出国有可能在未来实行限产保价政策而使国际市场油价维持较高水平；国际市场原油价格高涨对我国经济发展和国家发全危害极大。应当通过建立国家石油战略储备制度，风险采购机制，改善产业结构，完善国家能源政策等措施，应对国际原油供给下降对我国经济的危害。     

基于动态博弈网络技术的我国石油供应策略应急管理研究

建立我国石油供应危机的应急管理决策机制,实施石油进口多元化是缓解石油供应危机的有效策略之一。采用动态博弈网络技术评估了马六甲海峡是否处于正常通航条件下的我国石油供应状态与策略选择。结果表明,在我国处于石油供应危机的状态下,应急管理的策略选择为在利用现有石油资源的基础上,积极拓展中缅、中俄、中哈油气管道的建设。     

国际石油价格波动对我国经济的影响及对策

本文在对我国石油需求与供应情况进行分析的基础上,考察了国际石油价格波动对我国居民消费结构、企业投资、进出口贸易及国内物价等方面的影响,并就中国如何规避国际石油价格波动风险提出对策。     

Are Oil Price News Headlines Statistically and Economically Significant for Investors?

While much has been written about the effects of oil price on stock returns, surprisingly nothing is known about the effect of oil price news on stock returns. This article is a response to this research gap. For a large number of stocks on the New York Stock Exchange, the authors find that while oil price news does predict market returns it only predicts returns of some sectors and not all. They find that sorting stocks based on oil price news generates a significant return differential in the cross-section, which holds consistently across a range of models allowing for the well-known risk factors. Their findings suggest that information contained in oil price news affects stock returns.     

The individual and the market: Paul Samuelson on (homothetic) Santa Claus economics

Paul Samuelson often used the term “Santa Claus economics” for mathematical models with empirically unrealistic assumptions. I focus on one particular member of the Santa Claus family that Samuelson was very sceptical about: homothetic general equilibrium models (where all agents have identical homothetic preferences). I argue that Samuelson's concerns about these models provide insights into how he viewed the relationship between the individual and the market, a relationship that has implications for not only his economic theorising, but also his broader political–economic vision. His criticisms are also relevant to some ongoing debates within contemporary economic theory.     

风险规避对闭环供应链决策的影响

构建了3种不同回收渠道(制造商回收、零售商回收和第三方回收商回收)下的闭环供应链模型,以制造商为Stackelber领导者,分析了分散化决策下的3种最优决策模型,考察了闭环供应链各参与方的风险规避程度对其定价决策和期望利润的影响,并借助数值分析对求解结果进行了验证。研究结果表明:随着风险规避程度的增大,零售商趋向于降低零售价格,回收方趋向于提高回收价格;在其他因素不变的情况下,闭环供应链各参与方的风险规避程度增大往往会导致其期望利润减少。     

Non-causal understanding with economic models: the case of general equilibrium

How can we use models to understand real phenomena if models misrepresent the very phenomena we seek to understand? Some accounts suggest that models may afford understanding by providing causal knowledge about phenomena via how-possibly explanations. However, general equilibrium models, for example, pose a challenge to this solution since their contribution appears to be purely mathematical results. Despite this, practitioners widely acknowledge that it improves our understanding of the world. I argue that the Arrow–Debreu model provides a mathematical how-possibly explanation which establishes claims of mathematical dependence. The account developed reveals how mathematical knowledge can inform claims about the world, allow ‘what-if-things-had-been-different’ inferences, and thus improve our understanding.     

On the influence of US monetary policy on crude oil price volatility

Forecasting oil prices is not straightforward, such that it is convenient to build a confidence interval around the forecasted prices. To this end, the principal ingredient for obtaining a reliable crude oil confidence interval is its volatility. Moreover, accurate crude oil volatility estimation has fundamental implications in terms of risk management, asset pricing and portfolio handling. Generally, current studies consider volatility models based on lagged crude oil price realizations and, at most, one additional macroeconomic variable as crude oil determinant. This paper aims to fill this gap, jointly considering not only traditional crude oil driving forces, such as the aggregate demand and oil supply, but also the monetary policy rate. Thus, this work aims to contribute to the debate concerning the potential impact of (lagged) US monetary policy as well as the other crude oil future price (COFP) determinants on daily COFP volatility. By means of the recently proposed generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity mixed data sampling model, different proxies of the US monetary policy alongside US industrial production (proxy of the US aggregate demand) and oil supply are included in the COFP volatility equation. Strong evidence that an expansionary (restrictive) variation in monetary policy anticipates a positive (negative) variation in COFP volatility is found. We also find that a negative (positive) variation of industrial production increases (decreases) COFP volatility. This means that volatility behaves counter-cyclically, according to the literature. Furthermore, the out-of-sample forecasting procedure shows that including these additional macroeconomic variables generally improves the forecasting performance.     

Technology adoption in response to changes in market conditions: Evidence from the US petroleum refining industry

This paper analyzes the determinants of the levels and rates of technology adoption for petroleum refineries that survived the period 1980–1989, during which the conditions of product demand and crude oil supply changed significantly. Regression models are specified to investigate the growth of technology-related capacity, the growth of technology complexity, and the rates of adoption estimated from a diffuse model of technology use. Both levels and rates of adoption are hypothesized to be affected by refinery size, regulatory status, elements of local markets, and geographical factors. Empirical results generally suggest that compared with the supply-side factors of crude oil sources and regulatory subsidies, refinery size and demand-side factors, such as total consumption, consumption growth and fluctuation, and changes of the consumption mix, are responsible for the most part of the determination of technology adoption for refineries surviving the 1980s.     

构建中间需求模式的制造商最优产品供应策略模型

顾客需求是厂商实施产品供应策略的核心，它存在三种不同模式：本质需求模式、非本质需求模式和中间需求模式。本文主要研究中间需求模式下制造商对个人客户制定的产品供应策略，首先构建中间需求下制造商在直接折扣和未售出处理两种供应模式下获取利润最优的数学模型，其次求解相应的最优生产量、最优定价，最后运用数值算例验证模型的有效性。     

纵向物流产业集群的仓储能力均衡理论研究

近年来,物流产业发展迅速,尤其是2009年,物流产业被纳入“十大产业振兴规划”以来,发展更是日新月异。通过对纵向物流产业集群的仓储能力分析,构建了体现仓储能力的数学模型,并利用这些数学模型推导出了仓储能力与社会资源消耗的六宫格模型,通过对六宫格图形的逐一分析,找到了纵向物流产业集群的仓储能力均衡状态,也就是节点仓储能力最优状态。     

基于ARIMA与GARCH模型的国际油价预测比较分析

在分析影响油价波动因素的基础上,利用1986年1月至2010年12月的WTI国际原油价格月度数据,分别建立ARIMA和GARCH模型对油价进行预测。并通过对2011年1月至2012年4月WTI原油价格进行外推预测,检验模型的预测效果。比较分析发现,在短期预测中,ARIMA和GARCH模型对油价的预测均比较准确,但当油价由于受到重大事件的影响而有较大波动时,模型的预测精度下降;在长期预测中,GARCH模型的预测效果优于ARIMA模型;整体来看,GARCH模型预测的精度高于ARIMA模型。因此,在国际油价预测中,用GARCH模型是比较合适的。