The Role of Trade and International Economic Policy in Indian Economic Performance*

India's economic policies have undergone major reforms since the early 1990s. Before that, government regulation and control of economic activity was pervasive, and the trade sector did very poorly. One consequence was that imports were highly restricted and their scarcity was itself a major constraint on growth. After the crisis of the early1990s, trade policy was substantially liberalized. In this paper, the pre‐1990s regime is first briefly described. Thereafter, the economic policy reforms that impinged most directly on the trade sector are set forth, and the response of exports and imports to those changes is outlined. Exports have grown rapidly, from about 5% of the gross domestic product to around 15%, and they continue to grow at an average annual rate of 20%. Improved performance of the trade sector has been a major contributing factor to India's dramatically accelerated growth performance. A final section of this paper assesses the current situation, and sets forth the major policy challenges that will need to be met if that performance is to be sustained, if not improved upon.     

Electricity sector reform in developing countries: an econometric assessment of the effects of privatization,competition and regulation

Electricity sectors in both developed and developing countries have been subject to restructuring to introduce private capital and increase competition. Although the effects of such reforms in a number of the developed economies are now well documented, the experience of developing countries is much less well researched. This paper provides an econometric assessment of the effects of privatization, competition and regulation on the performance of the electricity generation industry using panel data for 36 developing and transitional countries, over the period 1985–2003. The study identifies the impact of these reforms on generating capacity, electricity generated, labor productivity in the generating sector and capacity utilization. The main conclusions are that on their own privatization and regulation (PR) do not lead to obvious gains in economic performance, though there are some positive interaction effects. By contrast, introducing competition does seem to be effective in stimulating performance improvements.      

Economic transition and elections in Poland1

Poland's economic and political transition, one of the most successful, has depended very heavily on job creation in new firms to replace the jobs lost in the formerly state‐owned enterprises. This paper uses survey and aggregate data from three Polish elections to suggest that these de novo firms, the individuals they employ, and the residents in the local areas where they exist become an important constituency supporting pro‐reform political parties and constraining the actions of parties less sympathetic to the reforms. The creation of this political constituency helps explain how countries can successfully pursue both economic and political reforms. JEL classification: D72, P26.     

The transmission of world commodity prices to domestic markets under policy reforms in developing countries

This paper examines the degree to which world price signals have been transmitted into domestic prices for eight countries and ten commodities, a total of 31 country/commodity pairs. The main characteristic of these countries was that they all undertook substantial policy reforms during the mid‐1980s to early 1990s. The paper investigates the effect of reforms on the speed at which signals were transmitted to domestic markets and on the extent of price transmission. We find that Chile, Mexico, and Argentina are the only countries whose domestic commodity markets were integrated with world markets. For the remaining cases (Ghana, Madagascar, Indonesia, Egypt, and Colombia) in only a few country/commodity pairs is there some passthrough of world price changes. In terms of the effects of policy reforms, in the majority of the cases the hypothesis of a structural break following the reform year is rejected.     

Shifting from pay-as-you-go to individual retirement accounts: A path to a sustainable pension system

With aging demographics and generous pension programs, the sustainability of the pay-as-you-go (PAYG) public pension system has been often questioned and has motivated policymakers to enact reforms in many countries. Although mandatory funded Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs) appear to be a solution to this unsustainable system, existing reforms usually take place within the PAYG system by reducing pension benefits. This paper evaluates the effects of PAYG reforms as well as reforms that switch to the IRA system. Our analysis shows that PAYG reforms outperform IRA reforms in many aspects. In fact, PAYG reforms achieve higher GDP and yield higher welfare in the long run. The transition to the steady state is also found to be less volatile for PAYG reforms. While PAYG generally places a larger burden on future generations, the positive welfare effect of cross-subsidization dominates the welfare loss. Our findings may explain why pension reform is a controversial issue in most countries and why we rarely observe a shift to the IRA system.     

制度变迁、银企关系和扭曲的杠杆治理

该文将我国商业银行改革划分为商业化、市场化和股份化三个阶段.通过使用1994年到2003年的上市公司数据,我们发现我国上市公司的负债水平在逐步上升,但是企业盈利在不断下降.该文进而分析了在商业化和市场化两个阶段的银企关系.我们发现,借款较高的公司企业绩效较低,公司治理水平较差.银行贷款和经理代理成本的协同关系在银行市场化时期并没有得到改善.该文认为,现有的银行市场化举措没有能够从根本上解决银行坏账问题,而银行股份化是值得考虑的理论选择.     

Regulatory reform and productivity growth in the UK's public utilities

The reforms in the regulation of the UK'nationalised industries over the last decade are examined and the extent to which they have been successful in achieving one of their declared aims – that of increasing the efficiency of the enterprises' operations – is considered. To achieve this the productivity performance of nine of the largest enterprises over the last twenty years was analysed. The results show that the rate of productivity growth has been significantly higher during the 1980s, compared with the preceeding decade. It is concluded that a large part of the observed upturn in productivity is a result of changes in efficiency.     

An exploratory study on the impact of pro-market reforms on the Indian corporate sector

Pro-market reforms were expected to increase competition, improve efficiency and reduce agency costs by improving the institutional environment in emerging markets. In an attempt to establish the macro–micro linkages of these goals, this paper aims to analyse the impact of reforms on the performance of firms belonging to different ownership categories. We find that while state owned enterprises have shown signs of convergence, the performance of other domestic firms has stagnated. Meanwhile multinational subsidiaries have shown consistently better performance, raising questions on the motive and direction of reforms. We end by discussing the policy implications and avenues for future research.     

Capital needs in Eastern countries

This paper reviews estimated capital needs for Eastern Europe and rejects most of the claimed foreign capital contributions as too high and, in fact, unnecessary. It argues that whilst foreign investments may usefully assist reforms, they can neither substitute for reforms nor assure the success of reforms. Historically there is no evidence of sustained growth predominantly financed by foreign capital anywhere. The West's effort should therefore focus on assisting reform efforts, providing some capital but, above all, opening its markets to Eastern products.Opinions expressed in this paper are strictly personal. I would like to thank H. Handler for his comments.     

The political economy of conditionality: An empirical analysis of World Bank loan disbursements

Traditional aid conditionality has been attacked as ineffective in part because aid agencies – notably the World Bank – often fail to enforce conditions. This pattern undermines the credibility of conditionality, weakening incentives to implement policy reforms. The standard critique attributes this time inconsistency to bureaucratic factors within the aid agency such as pressure to lend, defensive lending, or short-sighted altruism. Pressure from powerful donors provides another potential explanation for lax enforcement. This paper presents an empirical analysis of the political economy of conditionality in international organizations using the case of the World Bank and the United States. The analysis examines panel data on World Bank disbursements to 97 countries receiving structural adjustment loans between 1984 and 2005. Using UN voting as an indicator of alignment with the U.S., the paper presents evidence that World Bank structural adjustment loan disbursements are less dependent on macroeconomic performance in countries aligned with the United States.     

REGULATORY REFORM OF INTERSTATE NATURAL GAS PIPELINES

This paper assesses the historic nature of regulation of the interstate natural gas pipeline industry and examines two recently proposed reforms, "mandatory" contract carriage and open entry. Empirical evidence that bears on the desirability of each of these reforms is cited or developed. It is argued that the reforms increase competition in gas transportation, thereby diminishing the need for traditional regulation, and that they increase economic efficiency in the transport of natural gas.     

The stiglitz-ellerman rejoinder: Our main criticisms remain unanswered

The rejoinder by the US economists Joseph Stiglitz and David Ellerman (S and E) is welcome above all as a clear acknowledgement that our interpretation of what we called the "Stiglitz Perspective" (but what we apparently should now call the "Stiglitz-Ellerman Perspective") is correct. However, S and E make a determined attempt to belittle the differences between their and our perspectives. This they do by emphasising broad agreement between us on the drawbacks of voucher privatization while largely ignoring our main criticisms: that they overlook the critical role of new non-state, mainly private, firms in successful transitions'; that they underplay the pre-transition causes of the transformational recession in the former Soviet Union (FSU) and Central Europe (CE); and that they chose China rather than Central European and Baltic countries, for the purpose of assessing reforms and performance in Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). S and E continue to argue as if the choice of methods for privatising state-owned enterprises (SOEs) has been crucial for the success or otherwise of transition - hence their singular preoccupation with privatisation to insiders. We wish to change the terms of this debate by drawing attention to the evidence which shows that what really matters are de novo firms and therefore the reforms and policies which foster their growth.     

Dual-track Ownership Reforms: Lessons from Structural Change in China, 1978‐1997

The dual-track approach is characteristic of evolutionary reforms in China. The most important aspect of this dualism has been the reform of the ownership structure. On the one track, new, basically market-oriented institutions emerged in a parallel economy comprising non-state enterprises. On the other track, stateowned enterprises were retained and reforms were restricted to conservative policy changes bringing minor productivity-enhancing measures. In order to highlight the performance of the two tracks, a widely neglected indicator is employed to check the performance of enterprises: namely a structural comparison of the resource reallocation processes of both tracks over time. It becomes clear that structural adjustment was basically generated by the new track. In addition, it is shown that the increasing competition from the new track will not accelerate structural adjustment of the old track as long as institutional reforms of SOEs are not significantly extended.     

Growth and Transition: Why Has China''s Performance Been So Different?

This paper explains the differences in performance between the Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) since 1989 and China since its 1978–1979 reforms by the differing goals of economic reformers in China and in the CEECs. In China reforms were intended to promote growth rather than to create a market-based economy. Eastern European reformers’ main goal has been the creation of a market-oriented economy. The paper focuses on policies toward foreign trade, foreign investment, and foreign exchange since these highlight the differences in goals.J. Comp. Econom.,December 1997,25(3), pp. 422–440. University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia 5005, Australia.     

Economic Developments in the West Bank and Gaza Since Oslo

The performance of the Palestinian economy in 1994–2000 was uneven, but for the period as a whole, real per capita income declined despite the mobilisation of substantial amounts of foreign aid and despite considerable progress in establishing a basic institutional framework. This paper argues that economic growth and private investment, in particular, have been adversely affected by closures, by uncertainties about political developments and the direction of policies and policy reforms, by problems of governance, and by the excessive transportation and transaction costs related to the intensification of the permits system.     

The determinants and impact of telecommunications reforms in developing countries

This paper has two related objectives. First, it seeks to identify the key determinants of some policies that have been at the heart of the reforms of the telecommunications industry in developing countries, namely, liberalization, privatization, and the (re)structuring of regulation. Second, it attempts to estimate the extent to which these policies have translated into actual deployment of telecommunications infrastructure. This simultaneous investigation is conducted by means of an econometric analysis of a 1985-1999 time-series-cross-sectional database on 86 developing countries. Sectoral as well as institutional and financial factors are found to be important determinants of the actual reforms implemented. We uncover a positive relationship between the decision to introduce competition in the digital cellular segment and the growth of the fixed-line segment, suggesting that these two segments have benefited from each other. We also find that countries facing increasing institutional risk and financial constraints are more likely to introduce competition in the digital cellular segment and to privatize the fixed-line incumbent, these policies being economically attractive to both investors and governments. In turn, these policies are those that enhance the deployment of fixed-line infrastructure. In contrast, competition in the analogue cellular segment and the creation of a separate regulator seem to be relatively less attractive policies as they are found to be less likely to be introduced in countries facing increasing institutional risk and budget constraints. Their impact on fixed network deployment is found to be negative or non significant.     

Are Returns to Investment Lower for the Poor? Human and Physical Capital Interactions in Rural Vietnam

If the gains from investment depend on knowledge, but households cannot hire skills, then poorly educated households will achieve lower returns than educated ones. If the income‐poor are less well educated, then they will also have lower returns to investment. The paper tests this argument for the case of irrigation in Vietnam, a setting where existing irrigation can be treated as exogenous at the household level with appropriate controls for the determinants of facility placement. Strong complementarities between household education and irrigation expansion suggest that, unless disparities in education are redressed, reforms will generate an inequitable growth process in Vietnam.     

Why Mexico's regional income convergence broke down

According to previous research, Mexico's trade reforms led to a divergent pattern in regional per-capita output levels. This research did not fully include Mexico's regional growth performance after 1994, when NAFTA started operating. In this paper, I extend the sample to include Mexico's regional growth patterns after this treaty was enacted and I explore what factors may account for this result. The findings suggest that the divergent pattern observed after 1985 was not reversed with NAFTA. The results also suggest that the winners from the reforms were those states initially endowed with, or able to attract, higher levels of human and physical capital and better infrastructure.     

Strategic Responses: A Survey Experiment on Opposition to Pension Reforms*

The responses given in opinion polls on future policy reforms reflect both subjective expectations and preferences. We disentangle these factors using data from a controlled survey experiment conducted in Germany. At the time of the experiment, an increased retirement age had been proposed as part of a pension reform. Thus, the survey respondents faced an incentive to give biased responses. By understating their expected work ability at the age of retirement, they could make the increase of the retirement age a less attractive policy option. We find evidence for such strategic response behavior, and this strategic bias appears to be stronger in former communist East Germany.     

UK utilities: Past reform and current proposals

Utilities in the UK have undergone dramatic reform in the past fifteen years. This paper assesses the outcome by reviewing previously published work and introducing some new evidence, and assesses the UK Government's 1998 proposed reforms. We outline the impact of change of ownership, re-regulation and introducing competition on efficiency, investment, quality of service, prices and equity. We conclude that these reforms can yield benefits if they are undertaken within a clear framework of wider social and environmental benefits. Initial regulation in the UK has not always satisfied these criteria, and we welcome the government's proposed reforms, with some caveats