How Productive Are Economics and Finance PhDs?

This article analyses the research productivity of more than 200 individuals in academe with a PhD in economics and finance from (mostly) Australian universities. We find the number of publications accumulates linearly with experience, while citations increase exponentially, pointing to network effects. Panel regressions indicate: (1) the key role of experience in determining research outcomes; (2) the usual quadratic approach substantially under-estimates the role of diminishing returns to experience; (3) the university where an individual works is mostly unimportant for publications and citations. ‘Prime academic age’, when research has maximum impact, is attained about 11 years after the PhD.     

SUBSTITUTION AND COMPLEMENTARITY IN THE CREATION AND COMMUNICATION OF AUSTRALIAN UNIVERSITY RESEARCH*

The generation of research is one of the major functions of the university sector. In most disciplines, journal articles continue to be the main outlet for the communication of research findings. However, in Australia, government induced distortions have rewarded refereed conference papers an equal status to refereed journal papers. The aim of this paper is to explore the association between research published in journals and research published in conference proceedings. We use a panel dataset of the research output of 36 Australian universities, for the period 1995–2004. Cobb‐Douglas research production functions are estimated, as well as a system of research production functions that allows for simultaneity. The results indicate that journals and conferences are contemporaneous substitutes – an expansion in conference publications displaces journal publications. There is also a ‘DEST effect’. On average, conference papers are not converted into subsequent journal papers. The DEST effect is found also through analysis of the publication histories of 152 business and law academics. Postgraduate enrolments are shown to contribute only to conferences and have no effect on journal publications. Research income has a positive effect on both conferences and journal publications.     

China/USA nanotechnology research output comparison—2011 update

This Research Note updates our 2006 and 2009 China/USA nanotechnology and nanoscience (NN) research output comparisons.A 2009 comparison of China/USA research publication outputs showed that China is about to overtake the USA in NN research output. As predicted by the extrapolated 2009 curve, China has passed USA in NN research publication output. This transition occurred in the 2008/2009 time frame, and if the 2011 results (taken at mid-2011) hold for the full year, will become quite pronounced (~ 20%).When specific sub-disciplines are examined, the differences between China and USA become more pronounced. For example, the 2009 paper presented the time trend for China/USA publications in nanocomposites, an important sub-discipline of NN. The updated nanocomposites curve has increased about twice the rate of the overall NN curve, and shows no sign of abating.The USA papers lead in the numbers of citations by all metrics considered, but the Chinese papers are showing significant improvement with time. Overall, the Chinese papers are cited very modestly, but there is a core of 'heavy hitters' that appears to be increasing substantially with time, and is increasingly making its presence known in the higher Impact Factor journals.     

A Theory of Tenure for the Teaching University

In this paper we challenge the presumption that academic tenure is an outmoded institutional form for the small teaching university. Starting from the premise that tenure is granted on the basis of research (reflected in a minimum required number of publications), we argue that tenure has value for a university concerned solely with teaching (as opposed to research) because research enhances human capital and incentives for its accumulation are necessary to improve the quality of faculty teaching over the lifecycle. However, while human capital accumulation and research effort create future value, contracting on either basis is not feasible because neither can be measured objectively. Numbers of publications, the usual proxy for research, meter the desired activity only imperfectly due to randomness in the publication process. In these circumstances, an employment contract that offers tenure, compared with contracts that a) reward only teaching and b) supplement teaching payments with a direct reward for publications, can better generate the optimal level of human capital. The minimum publication requirement of the tenure contract induces the optimal level of research with less variation in expected income, avoiding inefficient behavioural responses to the greater riskiness of a contract rewarding only realised publications.     

Public funds and outputs in higher academic technical institutions: insights from India

ABSTRACT

This study examines the effect of public funding and its lag structure on research outputs in higher academic technical institutions of India. It contributes to the literature by providing empirical evidence on the determinants of academic publications and patents in the developing country context. We use panel data of actual yearly expenditure of 54 comparable scientific departments of the Indian Institutes of Technology from 2009–2010 to 2013–2014. The results highlight the need for increased funding for operational activities of the institutes as it is positively associated with publication and patent intensity.     

Publish or Perish? The Increasing Importance of Publications for Prospective Economics Professors in Austria,Germany and Switzerland

Abstract. Tenure decisions depend, among other factors, on a candidate's career age and publication record. We associate publications with journal articles indexed in EconLit and measure publication output in equivalents of both top‐five journal articles and European Economic Review (EER) articles. We find that the average age of a professor in the year of his/her first appointment is 38, i.e. he or she is appointed approximately eight years after completing the PhD. Between 1970 and 2006, the average publication record at the time of the first appointment is equivalent to 1.5 standardized top‐five articles or 2.3 standardized EER articles. Publication records vary across subfields and have become more substantial over time. We predict that someone aspiring to a tenured position after 2011 should aim at an equivalent of four standardized top‐five articles or six standardized EER articles.     

National nanotechnology research prominence

A new bibliometric technique enables one to distinguish high emergence topical content. This technique can be applied to sets of research publication abstracts reflecting a given technical domain (here, nanotechnology) to score cutting edge research terms. The resulting high emergence terms warrant special consideration in setting R&D priorities. The researchers (individuals, organizations, or countries) whose publications address those emergent terms heavily deserve consideration as possible leaders in that technical domain. This paper studies nanotechnology research publications using the new emergence scoring in conjunction with established bibliometric publication and citation measures. Findings challenge U.S. superiority in cutting edge nanotechnology research. China shows strongest at addressing emergent nanotechnology topics, followed by the U.S., South Korea, India, and, surprisingly, Iran.     

University spin-offs and their environment

Using nine university-level variables (including publications, patents, and spin-offs) and ten regional indicators, I show that the regional economy clearly differentiates Italian universities according to four distinct types, corresponding to four productivity levels. The typology stemming from multiple correspondence analysis suggests that a fertile context is important to successful universities; however, where the environment is extremely rich, individuals seem to strongly self-select at the beginning of their careers, thus dividing entrepreneurs from professors; hence university activities in these regions are lower. A categorical regression specifically exploring success in university spin-off creation tends to reject that publications and spin-offs are substitutes, and confirms several US findings, albeit in a significantly different environment.     

Do insiders have inside tracks: An examination of Wall Street Journal's Inside Track columns?

This study investigates how the stock market reacts to the publications of the Wall Street Journal's “Inside Track” columns in two distinct time periods, 1988 to 1993 and 2002 to 2004. It first examines the stock return behavior during the trading period, the filing period, and the publication day for firms appeared in the Inside Track columns in the period of 1988 to 1993 and then provides a validity test with a sample from 2002 to 2004. The evidence indicates that the market tends to under-react to the insider trading information and insiders tend to be information-motivated traders. The significant filing period returns along with significant publication period returns are consistent with the gradual price adjustment argument. The study also finds that market reactions to the publications are significantly related to insider trading when the trades involve the board chairman.     

无领导小组讨论在高校非教师系列管理岗位选拔中的应用

伴随着高校人事制度改革,基于胜任力的选拔模式日渐显现,其中无领导小组讨论在高校人事体系中的应用欠缺。本文以Z高校为例,从胜任力建模、评分细则、编制题库、合理分组、考官遴选、时间流程等6个方面展开,介绍了非教师系列管理岗位应用无领导小组讨论选拔的解决方案。为检验无领导小组讨论的实施效果,分别征求了考官、学院领导、候选人等各方信息,并就评分者信度、效标关联效度以及预测效度作了显著性检验。案例研究结果证明,无领导小组讨论在高校非教师系列管理岗位选拔中的可行性强,值得高校人事管理者借鉴推广。     

Creativity-enhancing technological change in the production of scientific knowledge

ABSTRACT

We view scientific publications as a measure of technical knowledge. Using the Solow method of functional decomposition and scientific publication data from the National Institute of Standards and Technology, we find that 79% of the increase in scientific publications per unit of scientific personnel is explained by an increase in federal R&D capital per unit of scientific personnel. We describe the unexplained or residual 21% as a measure of creativity-enhancing technological change, a phenomenon that offers a way to reverse the perceived slowing of the productivity of science. The explained 79% offers a possible metric for federal laboratories’ mandated reporting of a ROI to federal R&D. Understanding the drivers of the residual 21% could enable public policy to mitigate the resource constraints caused by the breakdown of exponential growth of the resources devoted to science.     

LED技术研究论文国际比较分析——基于文献计量

通过收集SCI收录的发表于1963—2014年的LED技术论文,利用文献计量和社会网络分析等方法,系统比较了中国与美国、韩国、日本、德国和中国台湾地区在LED技术论文发表数量、资助情况、发表机构、国际合作和论文影响力等方面的差异。研究结果显示:中国对LED技术研究非常重视,给予了大量项目支持;中国的LED技术论文数量不断增加,已位居全球第二;中国已在LED技术论文国际合作网络中处于核心地位,但论文影响力仍有待提高,国际合作有助于提高中国LED技术论文的影响力。     

A review of machine learning for big data analytics: bibliometric approach

ABSTRACT

The amalgamation of machine learning and big data has led to a revolution in data science with several influencing applications to various domains. To gain insights on the current research trends on machine learning for big data analytics, this study follows a bibliometric analysis methodology of citation data to review and quantitatively assess the explosion and impact of literature and research performance in this vibrant research area, which has witnessed rapid changes and rising interest in business, industry and academia. Using a variety of bibliometric measures and visualisation techniques, the paper examines and identifies several related issues including research productivity and directions, major contributors, publication trends and growth rates, citation and collaboration analysis, and others. The relevant bibliographic units for the study were collected from the Core Collection of the Web of Science bibliographic database. Nearly all the relevant publications prior to February 2018 were included in the analysis. The overwhelming productivity and wide-spread applications in several multidisciplinary domains have been revealed, with one-to-two ratio of journal to conference publications. Three countries (USA, China, India) are dominating the research output with more than two-thirds of the total productivity.     

Revolutionary change in dae electronic publication of science

Repid changes in scientific publication practices are occurring. Recent growth rates of electronic journals and electronic publications in science suggest that the traditional paper and print journal may be obsolete within 15 years. These changes are occurring as a result of the social intellectual choices being made by scientists. A push for more timely, accessible and affordable sources of scientific information is creating a vacuum that is being fulled by the new information technologies of the Internet. The consequences and implications of this new paradigm of publication for the organization, collaboration and participation of scientists is dicussed.     

Is it easier to publish in journals that have low impact factors?

We use publication data from all journals in economics, mathematics, physics and chemistry. We compute the ratio of publications that come from the top 25 US departments for each journal and use it as a measure of difficulty to publish in a journal. We find that there is a rather weak but positive correlation (0.20) between the impact factor and the difficulty measure.     

Anticipating business-cycle turning points in real time using density forecasts from a VAR

For the timely detection of business-cycle turning points we suggest to use medium-sized linear systems (subset VARs with automated zero restrictions) to forecast monthly industrial production index publications one to several steps ahead, and to derive the probability of the turning point from the bootstrapped forecast density as the probability mass below (or above) a suitable threshold value. We show how this approach can be used in real time in the presence of data publication lags and how it can capture the part of the data revision process that is systematic. Out-of-sample evaluation exercises show that the method is competitive especially in the case of the US, while turning-point forecasts are in general more difficult in Germany.     

The Impact of Research Grant Funding on Scientific Productivity

In this paper, we estimate the impact of receiving an NIH grant on subsequent publications and citations. Our sample consists of all applications (unsuccessful as well as successful) to the NIH from 1980 to 2000 for standard research grants (R01s). Both OLS and IV estimates show that receipt of an NIH research grant (worth roughly $1.7 million) leads to only one additional publication over the next five years, which corresponds to a 7 percent increase. The limited impact of NIH grants is consistent with a model in which the market for research funding is competitive, so that the loss of an NIH grant simply causes researchers to shift to another source of funding.     

HIGH SCHOOLS AND STUDENTS' INITIAL COLLEGES AND MAJORS

We use statewide administrative data from Missouri to examine the explanatory power of high schools over student sorting to colleges and majors at 4‐year public universities. We develop a “preparation and persistence index” (PPI) for each university‐by‐major cell in the Missouri system that captures dimensions of selectivity and rigor and allows for a detailed investigation of sorting. Our analysis shows that students' high schools predict the quality of the initial university, as measured by PPI, conditional on their own academic preparation, and that students from lower–socioeconomic status high schools systematically enroll at lower‐PPI universities. However, high schools offer little explanatory power over major placements within universities. (JEL I2, J1)     

Citation performance of thirty keywords in economics

Keywords of a publication may be indicative of its subfield. In this paper, we analyse citation performance of thirty keywords to understand differences in intra-field citation performance in economics. First, citation performance of publications that contain a certain keyword is computed. Then, adjustments are made for the publication year and the publishing journal. Keywords such as ‘growth’, ‘inference’ and ‘institutions’ have above average citation performance in all adjustments. Lastly, the trend in the frequency of publications that contain a certain keyword is explored.     

What and How Long Does It Take to Get Tenure? The Case of Economics and Business Administration in Austria,Germany and Switzerland

Abstract. This paper investigates the determinants of tenure decisions in Germany, Austria and the German‐speaking part of Switzerland for professorships in economics, business administration and related fields. Our dataset comprises candidates who were awarded tenure as well as those who were eligible but were not tenured. We show that business candidates have a higher probability of being tenured than economists. Youth, marital status and publications matter; gender and children do not. The market for first appointments in economics relies much more on publication performance than the market for business administration.