略论汇率政策调整与扩大内需

汇率政策作为政府宏观调控的一种工具，不仅可以实现外部经济平衡之目标，而且对于内部经济目标的实现也有着不可忽视的作用。本文认为，与财政政策相搭配，适度实施人民币贬值的汇率政策，在客观上为目前外汇市场的供求状况所必须，同时也有利于我国政府扩大内需的内部经济目标的实现。     

对当前人民币汇率形成市场化改革的几点思考

汇率机制是汇率制度的实现形式,人民币汇率的运行机制存在政策性的过度干预、外汇市场结构失衡、缺乏弹性、调节缓慢等问题,没有体现出汇率制度的内涵,汇率政策难以发挥应有的作用,汇率机制的市场化创新已成大势所趋。文章认为,汇率机制市场化,要从物质经济的国情出发,培育规范的外汇市场,改革中央银行的监管机制,循序渐进地进行。     

我国外汇管理体制改革问题讨论综述

外汇管理体制改革是整个经济体制改革的重要组成部分。1994年我国外汇市场实行汇率并轨,标志着外汇管理体制及汇率制度改革的进一步深化。本文就外汇管理体制改革的目标、汇率并轨的经济影响、人民市贬值的经济效应以及人民币的自由兑换等问题的讨论情况作一简要介绍。     

基于人民币内外价值的人民币汇率分析

人民币的短期升值与中长期贬值的压力并存，构成了目前人民币汇率升值不妥，贬值亦不妥的困境。解决人民币汇率困境不能仅局限于汇率水平或汇率形成机制的研究，关键还在于内部经济结构的调整和对外经济政策的改革。     

建立基于特别提款权储备体系的实践选择

2008年以来,美国次贷危机引发全球金融危机,欧洲深陷主权债务困境,新兴经济体流动性泛滥问题尚未有效遏制又面临经济"二次探底"的风险。各国寄希望于本币贬值来刺激外部需求,竞相在外汇市场上操纵汇率以期提振本国经济,然而收效甚微。在经济刺激政策无效并逐渐退出后,各国学者已将注意力集中到对危机爆发深层次原因的     

对人民币汇率浮动的探讨

在开放经济下,任何一项旨在纠正中国内外部失衡的政策组合都必须包括汇率调整这一项内容。由于当前外汇市场还没有实现完全的市场化,所以对人民币均衡汇率的估算意义不大,关键问题在于建立完善的市场机制：人民币升值对宏观经济存在短期的负面影响,但长期来看,有利于增强企业竞争力,升级产业结构,促进经济的长期、平稳、可持续发展;同样,人民币的浮动汇率制度也是我国经济转型和发展的需要。     

世界经济危机或从金融领域开始

2007年全球经济失衡进一步恶化,美国经常帐户赤字超过了9000亿美元。同时由于美国内部发展的不平衡导致美元持续贬值,这使美元地位产生动摇,导致黄金、石油等大宗商品价格持续上升,美元贬值加剧带来的风险在全球不断蔓延。特别是由于美国次级贷款风波持续蔓延,世界经济面临着更多的不确定性——     

人民币升值是紧缩性的吗?

中国经济近年来呈现出比较明显的外部失衡和内部失衡,这与人民币汇率低估不无关系。我国政府对是否允许人民币升值保持非常谨慎的态度,主要原因是担心人民币升值如传统宏观经济理论所言是紧缩性的,从而造成中国经济增长放慢和失业上升。本文运用向量自回归模型实证考察了人民币实质汇率冲击对中国产出的影响,实证分析表明:(1)在控制了可能导致人民币实质汇率与中国产出之间伪相关的来源后,人民币实质汇率升值仍会导致中国产出一定程度的下降,因此货币升值在中国确实是紧缩性的,“紧缩性贬值”文献揭示的升值扩张性效应在中国不是支配性的;(2)一旦考虑了中国经济的国际金融联系,实质汇率冲击对中国产出变动的解释力和影响程度明显变小,而美国利率冲击对中国产出变动有更大的影响,其影响超过了人民币实质汇率冲击的影响。本文进一步分析了实证结果背后的可能原因,并且指出并不能从本文的结论引出中国应该继续维持人民币汇率低估的政策建议。     

日元贬值对中国外贸有不利影响

日本政府为挽救疲软经济,近日允许日元汇率急速下滑,东京外汇市场日元对美元的汇率25日下午5时跌至130.77日元兑换1美元,为3年来的最低点。日元的大幅贬值,有可能在东亚及东南亚国家引起一轮新的货币贬值潮,因此世界各国非常关注人民     

中国有管理的离散浮动汇率制度的构建——基于STAR模型的外汇市场压力指数分析

合理的汇率形成机制能够为我国宏观经济运行和微观经济活动提供有效的保障,这就需要针对我国经济现实状况和对外经济发展水平选择恰当的汇率制度。通过采用平滑转移自回归模型对构建的外汇市场压力指数进行非线性检验,实证结果表明模型具有良好的预测能力并体现了外汇市场的非线性。由于在长期内实施有管理的浮动汇率制度和长期目标不确定,汇率易受到投机行为的冲击。我国可以实行有管理的离散浮动汇率制度。在短期内允许汇率频繁小幅波动以释放市场供需变化对升值的压力,并在长期内当经济的增长使得累积的外汇市场偏离时,一次性修正使之符合经济基本面状况,避免汇率水平的压抑引致的负面效应。     

美元本位制、美元霸权与美国金融危机

美元本位制下,美元霸权表现为中心一外围框架体系.在该体系下,中心国美国与外围国家的权益和义务不对称,地位不对等,而且框架体系本身具有内在的不相容性,这些特征决定了美元本位制的内在脆弱性,由此也使美国落入美元本位制的陷阱,造成美国国内利率下降、消费信用过度扩张、制造业陷入衰退等经济失衡,最后当信用泡沫破灭时,金融危机爆发.     

U.S. insurance trade

The U.S. has had significant trade deficits in insurance for several years. This paper examines the reasons for such big annual deficits. A large home market, a low reinsurance capacity, and the conservative attitude of U.S. insurers toward foreign markets are identified as the primary contributors to such deficits. The paper also addresses the issue of how U.S. insurers can improve their international competitive position. By expanding their operations abroad, particularly in Mexico and Latin America, and by actively participating in the fast-growing Asian markets, American insurers have their greatest chance to accomplish that objective.     

U.S. farm dynamics and the distribution of U.S. agricultural subsidies

The persistent instability of the agricultural sector is the fundamental premise of most agricultural policy. Yet no research has ever quantified the aggregate dynamics of individual farms in the US. This article is the first to combine the US Census of Agriculture with the Agricultural Resource Management Survey to observe the dynamics of nearly 1.5 million farms. The data reveal substantial variation in farm size expansion and contraction. Most of this variation is unobservable in the sector totals reported by the US Department of Agriculture each year. The distribution of agricultural subsidies suggests that subsidies become more important as farms get smaller and may play a role in slowing farm size contraction.     

美国政府对外国参与美国研发活动的管理概况

本文主要探讨美国对外国参与美国研发活动的基本态度以及政府管理的基本情况。     

The U.S. immigration crisis

A review of the factors affecting immigration to the United States is presented. The authors develop the argument that present levels of immigration, particularly illegal immigration, are detrimental to U.S. interests, and that current global population trends will make this situation progressively worse. Stricter controls on immigration are considered.     

Explosive U.S. budget deficit

In this study, we present new evidence that the postwar U.S. federal budget deficit was explosive in nature. Because of the government's inevitable attempts to reduce high or rapidly growing budget deficits, the deficit may contain a substantial component that periodically collapses, which renders the standard unit root tests biased toward stationarity. We apply a newly proposed recursive unit root test for explosiveness, which is known to be powerful to the periodically collapsing component. Although the evidence for explosiveness we found herein is not overwhelming, this study should at the very least serve as a warning against a blind application of standard unit root tests to budget deficits, which may harbor components that periodically collapse.     

Outmigration of U.S. immigrants

"A methodology is devised for the empirical analysis of the determinants of outmigration of immigrants in a population. Empirical studies in this area have been hindered by a lack of longitudinal data on the characteristics of the immigrants. This problem is tackled by making use of cross-sectional data at two points in time. It is applied to the study of male immigrants in the United States. It is found that education is positively related to the rate of outmigration for immigrants from Canada, Asia and the pooled sample of immigrants. This finding suggests that the cross-sectional estimates of the growth in earnings of immigrants in the United States are underestimated for these groups of immigrants."     

U.S. DEPOSIT INSURANCE REFORM

Congress, late in 1991, enacted a banking reform measure that (i) authorizes $70 billion of additional FDIC funding, (ii) enhances bank regulation and supervision, and (Hi) adopts a "trip wire" system for increasingly severe regulation based on a bank's capital. Congress rejected a number of key elements of the Treasury proposal submitted early in 1991, such as interstate banking and expanded bank powers. The Congressional action does not end the debate over banking reform. In due time, other attempts likely will be made to restructure the banking system along the lines of the Treasury proposal.
The Treasury proposal's positive points failed to offset its fundamental problems. The Congressional action, though not subject to the Treasury proposal's problems, falls short of complete deposit insurance reform. Both proposals fail to recognize that regulatory oversight is a poor substitute for market discipline in the current financial environment.
This paper reviews problems with the financial reform process and failure of the Treasury proposal to recognize these problems. It also reviews alternative approaches to deposit insurance reform.