An analysis of irrigated agricultural outcomes under the prior appropriation doctrine: hypotheses and applications

This article measures irrigated agricultural outcomes under the prior appropriation doctrine by developing a model of farmers’ land allocations in response to water supply change. The modelling approach considers the institutional factors of water rights and permits the inclusive determination of water and land allocations. We utilize farm-level data of irrigated agriculture in Water District #1 in Idaho to examine the predictions from our theoretical model. The water rights priority date is consolidated at the farm level and used to differentiate farmers’ responses. We test a set of hypotheses that relate to water supply and crop revenue. Our results suggest that the water rights priority has a profound impact on agricultural outcomes, indicating strong institutional effects and weak influence of market-based approaches. Farmers respond to both long-term and seasonal water supply change and variation, and they respond to seasonal water supply forecasts in varied ways depending on their water rights portfolios, thus signalling a disproportionate distribution of potential impacts of water supply change.     

Economywide impacts of climate change on agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa

Two possible adaptation scenarios to climate change for Sub-Saharan Africa are analyzed under the SRES B2 scenario. The first scenario doubles the irrigated area in Sub-Saharan Africa by 2050, compared to the baseline, but keeps total crop area constant. The second scenario increases both rainfed and irrigated crop yields by 25% for all Sub-Saharan African countries. The two adaptation scenarios are analyzed with IMPACT, a partial equilibrium agricultural sector model combined with a water simulation module, and with GTAP-W, a general equilibrium model including water resources. The methodology combines the advantages of a partial equilibrium approach, which considers detailed water-agriculture linkages, with a general equilibrium approach, which takes into account linkages between agriculture and nonagricultural sectors and includes a full treatment of factor markets. The efficacy of the two scenarios as adaptation measures to cope with climate change is discussed. Due to the limited initial irrigated area in the region, an increase in agricultural productivity achieves better outcomes than an expansion of irrigated area. Even though Sub-Saharan Africa is not a key contributor to global food production (rainfed, irrigated or total), both scenarios help lower world food prices, stimulating national and international food markets.     

Local irrigation response to ethanol expansion in the High Plains Aquifer

Global ethanol production has grown rapidly due to national renewable fuel programs. Concern has grown over impacts that land conversion and crop displacement driven by ethanol feedstock production might have on water resources. In this paper, we examine irrigation decisions of agricultural producers in the Kansas portion of the High Plains Aquifer in response to local ethanol market expansion. To identify the effects of ethanol expansion on irrigation decisions, we examine field-level data on irrigation water use, irrigated acreage, and crop decisions for the years 2003–2017 for nearly 23,000 fields in Kansas. We measure the response of three irrigation decisions, (i) irrigated acreage, (ii) irrigation per acre, and (iii) total water use to the introduction and capacity expansion of an ethanol plant. We find that ethanol market expansion did lead to increases in irrigation water use. Specifically, a 10 % increase in ethanol capacity within 50KM increases annual water use by 0.22 % per field (4.8 acre-inches/field). We predict that ethanol markets accounted for about 4% of total irrigated water use in 2017.     

The impact of governing structure on the pricing behavior and market structure of public institutions of higher education in the U.S

The governance structure of a state university system is the relationship between the individual institutions and the governing board. We hypothesize that the structure will impact both the pricing behavior as well as the market structure of the institutions. The more centralized the governance structure, the more aligned it will be with the interests of the state government. Assuming that the state’s interest is to educate in-state students, those who are most likely to remain in-state therefore generating future tax revenue for the state, institutions with more centralized governance structure are more likely to offer in-state students a lower tuition price relative to out-of-state students. This hypothesis is tested with an OLS model using data from the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) for the 1997–1998 academic year. We find that the ratio of out-of-state to in-state tuition is greatest among those institutions with the most centralized governance structures. They engage in the highest level of price discrimination relative to institutions with other types of governance structures. Using the classification of instructional programs, we calculate a weighted average of the percent of duplicate degrees for each type of governance structure. We find that as the governance structure becomes more centralized, the percentage of duplicate degrees in a field decreases across institutions within the same state. This suggests states with a more centralized structure have less homogeneous institutions and educational offerings.     

The role of agricultural cooperatives in sustaining the wheat diversity and productivity: the case of southern Italy

We hypothesize that institutions such as agricultural cooperatives influence regional levels of variety diversity through input supply, processing or marketing functions. This diversity can also affect yield, a partial measure of crop productivity. We test these hypotheses with data from southern Italy, a mega-diversity spot and centre of diversity for durum wheat. Cooperatives in the southern regions of Italy process farmers’ harvests of durum wheat into bread, label it, and sell it locally. In this relatively marginalized region of the country, cooperatives enable farmers to capture more of the value of the final product and reduce marketing costs. To test the hypothesis, we apply a two-stage estimation approach with a Cobb-Douglas production function and panel data analysis. Findings suggest that the density of cooperatives in a region is associated with greater spatial diversity in wheat varieties grown, and that, over a 14-year period, this diversity positively affected crop yields.     

A Ricardian Analysis of the Distribution of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture across Agro-Ecological Zones in Africa

This paper examines the distribution of climate change impacts across the sixteen Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZs) of Africa. We combine net revenue from livestock and crops and regress total net revenue on a set of climate, soil, and socio-economic variables with and without country fixed effects. Although African crop net revenue is very sensitive to climate change, combined livestock and crop net revenue is more climate resilient. With the hot and dry CCC climate scenario, average damage estimates reach 27% by 2100, but with the mild and wet PCM scenario, African farmers will benefit. The analysis of AEZs implies that the effects of climate change will be quite different across Africa. For example, currently productive areas such as dry/moist savannah are more vulnerable to climate change while currently less productive agricultural zones such as humid forest or sub-humid AEZs become more productive in the future. S. Niggol Seo is the Consultant to the World Bank.     

The Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture: Findings from Households in Vietnam

This paper examines farm household-level impacts of climate change by examining the relationship between climatic variables and Vietnamese agricultural output. The Ricardian technique is applied with panel data which accounts for both adaptation strategies and household characteristics. This study proposes a two-stage Hsiao model to correct for collinearity between climatic variables and individual effects. The results show that in the dry season, increases in temperatures are beneficial to all farms in the warmer southern regions, while increases in precipitation will damage only irrigated farms in the Central and South regions. The impact of higher temperature in the wet season is similar, except that it will negatively affect net revenue of irrigated farms in the long run. More rainfall in the wet season will increase net revenue in the North region only. Finally, this study combines the estimated results with future climate scenarios to predict how future changes in climate will affect farmers on aggregate.     

黑龙江省农业水资源利用研究

水是地球上一切生命赖以生存、也是人类生活和生产中不可缺少的基本物质之一。20世纪以来,由于世界各国工农业的迅速发展,城市人口的剧增,缺水已是当今世界许多国家面临的重大问题,尤其是城市缺水状况,越来越加剧。黑龙江省水资源属于中国北方较多地区,但降水分布不均,春旱和夏涝对农业生产影响较大。农业水资源丰富的地区,应优先发展水稻。农业水资源较少的地区发展旱田节水灌溉,应优先选择菜瓜果类高效益作物和对生产影响较大的种子苗木等。其次是扩大玉米催芽坐水种面积。第三是附加值较高的经济作物。     

Complementarity between water pricing, water rights and local water governance: A Bayesian analysis of choice behaviour of farmers in the Krishna river basin, India

To ensure efficient water allocation and use, policy designers have adopted various strategies, including price setting, decentralising irrigation water management or improving water rights. Most of these strategies have been applied individually, without considering the complementary relationships between them. This paper uses a discrete choice model to analyse the scope for combinations of tools for irrigation water demand management and farmers' acceptance of these. In terms of local irrigation water governance, the presence or absence of collective irrigation water management, in the form of a Water Users Association, is considered. Water rights are specified in terms of the duration and quality of the entitlement and its transferability. Finally, four types of water pricing methods (area, crop, block and volumetric pricing) are considered. Using a choice experiment, we elicit the most preferred water pricing method, under different water rights situations, at different price levels and under various contexts for local irrigation water governance. Our results indicated that under conditions of improved water rights, preference for volumetric pricing increases, whilst the presence of a Water Users Association reduces this preference. Furthermore, it was found that using an appropriate combination of water demand management tools considerably increases the willingness to pay for a change in scenario.     

中国地方土地财政收入增长影响因素实证研究——基于1995-2008年中国省际面板数据的分析

文章运用面板数据模型考察了中国省际土地财政收入①增长的影响因素,分别利用动态效应模型和阈值效应模型进行了估计,探究各因素在空间和时间发生变化时的影响规律。研究表明,各因素在不同时间、不同阈值效应下对土地财政收入的影响不尽相同:土地财政收入增长具有明显的路径依赖特征,前期的增长会形成惯性而影响后期的增长;一个地区财政压力较大、事权和财权不平衡程度加深、房价上涨会导致该地区土地财政收入增长,但随着经济发展和产业结构变化,这些影响又会有所不同。因此,财税体制改革需要充分考虑地区经济发展和产业结构的差异性,在不同发展程度的地区采用不同的措施。     

地方财政支农投入与农业技术效率的省际差异:1995～2011年

运用参数法中的随机前沿分析法,结合我国1995—2011年的省级面板数据,选取地方财政"一般预算支出"中的"农林水事务"支出作为代理变量,分析地方财政支农投入对农业技术效率的影响,发现地方财政支农投入对于农业技术效率以及农业产出具有显著的积极作用,财政支农投入差异是我国各省市农业技术效率差异的重要根源之一。但鉴于目前我国在中央与地方的财政分配上严重倾向于中央财政,不少省市的地方财政收入很有限,财政支农投入的数量、结构、区域分布等方面都亟待调整和完善。     

地区比较角度的地方政府土地财政依赖研究

地方政府对土地财政的依赖已经成为当前急需解决的重要问题。选取东中西部代表性的省份广东、湖北、陕西,分析三省的地方财政收入、房地产相关税收和国有土地使用权出让收入之间的关系。结果显示：有针对性地改革当前房地产相关税收和国有土地出让制度,降低房地产市场波动对地方财政收入的影响,有利于地方财政的安全和房地产行业的长远健康发展。     

Climate change and its marginalizing effect on agriculture

The agriculture of some areas considered marginal in the EU agricultural context is being questioned due to its low productivity and growing dependence on economic aid programs Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). This study shows that climate change increases these areas marginalisation of since worsens crop growth conditions. The influence of climate change on the agricultural sector is analyzed using the Multicriteria Decision Paradigm with information provided by the Erosion-Productivity Impact Calculator (EPIC) and a General Circulation Model (GCM) as inputs for multicriteria mathematical programming models. The results obtained show climate change effects on the crop portfolio. Further results suggest that climate change effects are not only economics and environmental, reducing the suitable area for crops, but also social as it causes loss of jobs in the agricultural sector.     

论全面深化财税体制改革背景下事权和支出责任分离

原有分税制改革受各种因素制约,制度框架继承了各级政府间原有的支出事项,与事权的关联考虑不多,缺乏明晰的事权和支出责任规范划分的政治机制,同时政府间财政收入的分配格局并未伴随财政职能的下放而发生根本性变革,产生了政府间事权、支出责任、财权、财力不相适应的矛盾,引致事权重叠交叉、事权与支出责任分离、事权与财权不匹配、事权与财力不确定等问题,带来制度激励偏离公共性和治理失效的风险,亟待全面深化财税体制改革,建立事权和支出责任相适应的制度,以更好发挥中央和地方两个积极性,促进政府治理整体效能最大化。     

Integrated water and economic modelling of the impacts of water market instruments on the South African economy

A static computable general equilibrium model of South Africa is adapted to compare new taxes on water demand by two industries, namely forestry, and irrigated field crops. Comparisons are made with respect to both the short and the long run, in terms of three target variables, namely (i) the environment; (ii) the economy; and (iii) equity. Since the taxes on the two industries do not raise the same amount of revenue, the target variables are calculated per unit of real government revenue raised by the new taxes (also referred to as the marginal excess burdens of the taxes). The model results are robust for moderate values of the water elasticity of demand in the two industries, in both the long and the short run. The tax on irrigated field crops performs better in terms of all three the target variables in the short run. In the long run the tax on irrigated filed crops is better in terms of water saving, but reduces real GDP and the consumption by poor households.     

衡阳市农业干旱问题及其对策研究

以红色丘陵盆地地貌景观为主体的衡阳市，农业开发历史悠久，农业地位重要，但在大气环流、地貌结构、岩性、植被等自然因素和大面积破坏天然植被，无限制扩大耕地面积和耗水性农业，以及农业基础设施落后等人文因素的综合影响下，地域性的农业季节性干旱越来越表现出频率高、旱情重；夏秋多旱，秋旱尤甚；地域差异明显，但有一定规律等特征，乃至成为区域农业发展的最大障碍性因素。为确保衡阳作为国家商品粮基地、重要的经济作物基地和畜禽、淡水渔基地的地位，必须针对衡阳市所特有的农业干旱问题，加强其生态环境和农田水利基本建设，调整和优化区域农业结构，建立有效的防灾、减灾保障体系。     

Property Rights,Governance, and Economic Development

In this review article we give an intuitive account of why good institutions in general, and secure property rights in particular, matter for economic growth and development. We also discuss implications for good governance, defined as the efficient provision of property rights and other aspects of governance. Finally, we briefly touch on political institutions that might be conducive to good governance and thus economic development.     

The Politics of Capital Flight in the Global Economic Crisis

This paper studies the effects of economic governance and political institutions on portfolio investment during the Global Economic Crisis of 2008–2009. Leveraging a unique cross‐national dataset on portfolio flows immediately following the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, it shows that countries with “better institutions” – those with more (or less) democratic, more (or less) constrained or more accountable political systems – were no less vulnerable to portfolio outflows than countries with “worse institutions.” However, countries with better governance prior to the crisis – those with better regulatory apparatuses, rule of law, property rights, and those considered less politically risky – experienced lower net portfolio capital outflows after Lehman. Governance is in fact the strongest predictor of portfolio capital flows during the global flight to liquidity, while political institutions perform poorly. The findings shed light onto the political factors that mediated how the collapse of Lehman affected national financial markets the world over, and have implications for literatures on the political economy of foreign investment, as well as for broader topics of institutions, governance, and economic performance.     

The impact of product innovation on firm-level markup and productivity: evidence from China

This article empirically evaluates the impact of product innovation on firms’ markup and productivity. Based on a large sample of Chinese manufacturing firms, we estimate firm-level markup using the wedge between output elasticities of intermediate input and its cost share in total revenue. Firm productivity is measured as revenue productivity and adjusted with the estimated markup. The results suggest that product innovation increases firm-level markup and revenue productivity. However, the effect of product innovation on the adjusted productivity is mostly negative or insignificant. The observed relationships also vary in response to market structures. Our results indicate that the positive impact of product innovation on revenue productivity is mainly driven by price-cost markup changes rather than physical productivity improvements. Our study suggests the widely observed positive relationship between product innovation and revenue productivity should be interpreted with caution.     

Democracy, Governance, and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence

The paper examines how democracy affects long-run growth by influencing the quality of governance. Empirical evidence is first presented showing that measures of the quality of governance are substantially higher in more democratic countries. A general-equilibrium, endogenous growth model is then built to show how a governance-improving democracy raises growth. In this model, stronger democratic institutions influence governance by constraining the actions of corrupt officials. Reducing corruption, in turn, stimulates technological change and spurs economic growth. Empirical evidence is presented showing that democracy is in fact a significant determinant of total factor productivity (TFP) growth between 1960 and 1990 in a cross-section of countries. But this contribution occurs only insofar as stronger democratic institutions are associated with greater quality of governance.