复杂社会网络视角下产业集群发展的投入产出结构分析

投入产出数据能够很好地描述一个国家或地区经济系统中各个产品部门之间的技术经济关系,而且数据都以矩阵形式给出,可以直接或经过处理后作为复杂网络的邻接矩阵,从而形成一类有向加权网络。根据投入产出表的直接消耗系数矩阵构建了以特定产品部门为核心的产业复杂网络——产业集群发展关联网络（ICDN）,并通过研究产品部门节点的加权集聚系数、点权和流介数来揭示它们在经济系统中的作用和地位。     

产业结构网络中集聚系数的经济学含义研究

投入产出数据能很好描述一个国家或地区经济系统中各产品部门之间的技术经济关系,而且数据都是以矩阵形式给出,可直接或经过处理后作为复杂网络的邻接矩阵,从而形成一类有向加权网络。根据投入产出表的直接消耗系数矩阵构建了产业结构网络模型,选取集聚系数研究产品部门之间技术经济关系的紧密程度,并通过与其它网络指标和投入产出指标进行比较,明确了它们所表达的经济学含义。     

IT微博社会网络结构特征分析

利用体现复杂网络结构特征的指标,比较了IT微博网络与小世界网络和无标度网络的平均最短路径长度和聚集系数,分析了网络节点的度数、介数和接近数,利用最小二乘法对度分布进行拟合,并分析了"度-度"相关性。结果显示:IT微博网络具有小世界和无标度的特征;绝大多数用户只有少量的关系人,介数最大的节点不一定是接近数最大的节点;关系网络的度服从幂律分布;实验网络具有度的异配性,即度值小的节点倾向于与度值大的节点连接,新增加的个体更倾向于与大度数的个体建立联系。     

江苏省制造业与生产性服务业关联分析——基于投入产出与社会网络分析相结合的视角

制造业与生产性服务业之间的关联关系能为制造业转型升级提供科学支撑。利用投入产出系数从宏观上把握各部门对经济发展的推拉作用,运用社会网络分析构建相关部门的网络模型,结合社会网络分析指标研究各部门在网络中的地位和功能。研究表明,江苏省经济发展主要靠制造业带动和低端生产性服务业推动;技术密集型制造业在网络中占据核心地位,高端生产性服务业整合吸收资源能力较强,低端生产性服务业与其它部门联系较广泛;政府政策对制造业与生产性服务业之间的关系、地位和作用具有较大影响。最后,提出制造业应提高需求层次,生产性服务业应提升自身素质,政府应立足长远规划,促进制造业与生产性服务业协调发展。     

江苏省制造业与生产性服务业关联分析

制造业与生产性服务业之间的关联关系能为制造业转型升级提供科学支撑。利用投入产出系数从宏观上把握各部门对经济发展的推拉作用,运用社会网络分析构建相关部门的网络模型,结合社会网络分析指标研究各部门在网络中的地位和功能。研究表明,江苏省经济发展主要靠制造业带动和低端生产性服务业推动;技术密集型制造业在网络中占据核心地位,高端生产性服务业整合吸收资源能力较强,低端生产性服务业与其它部门联系较广泛;政府政策对制造业与生产性服务业之间的关系、地位和作用具有较大影响。最后,提出制造业应提高需求层次,生产性服务业应提升自身素质,政府应立足长远规划,促进制造业与生产性服务业协调发展。     

基于复杂网络的我国信贷风险问题研究

近年来,我国商业银行不良贷款率升高,信贷投放面临着行业和客户的选择困难.但是,现阶段我国仍缺乏关于行业资金投放的理论和方法.本文利用复杂网络的方法研究经济系统中行业的信贷风险,提出地位系数这一指标来衡量局部行业间投入产出网络的对称性.然后,考察地位系数与KMV模型中行业违约距离之间的负相关性,并根据宏观经济以及国家政策对低风险和高风险行业的地位系数进行对比说明.最终,提出了切实可行的政策建议.     

高关联产业——投资需求的着眼点

一、投资应瞄准高关联度行业。国民经济各部门在社会再生产过程中存在着相互依存、相互制约的经济技术联系，从而表现为产业关联程度。影响力系数和感应度系数是两个反映产业关联度的系数。从感应度角度看，供不应求时，应优先发展感应度系数大的行业。感应度系数反应的是，当每个部门均生产一个单位最终产品时，某一个部门由此而受到的需求感应程度。感应度系数大于１，表示该部门所受到的感应程度高于社会平均感应水平（即各部门所受感应的平均值），感应度系数越大，表示该部门受到的需求感应程度越大。经济增长加快时，感应度系数大的部…     

复杂网络视角下汽车产业集群发展投入产出结构研究

不同国家或地区经济系统中各产品部门之间的经济技术关联程度能够用投入产出表数据进行描述,且数据均能以矩阵形式呈现,通过直接或间接处理后可以作为复杂网络的邻接矩阵,进而形成一类有向加权网络。根据国家间投入产出数据构建了全球强关系网络,然后进一步选取特定产品部门为核心产品部门构建了全球产业集群发展关联网络,并采用加权集聚系数研究核心产品部门在经济系统中的作用和地位。     

产业技术流网络构建与结构效应研究

以复杂网络描述产业间技术扩散,基于概率论和网络技术设计产业技术流网络建模与结构效应分析方法,提出产业技术流网络（ITFN）概念及其随机、动态、多层和复杂性特征。改进Weaver指数,根据产业产品与流程创新二维随机变量联合概率分布确定产业节点连接规则,构建垂直型ITFN,测度产业间技术共同度,构建水平型ITFN。以ITFN度分布与度相关揭示产业技术扩散结构整体与动态效应,以中心-外围分层网络、产业技术流树展现产业结构升级动力效应,以中心度测度产业技术流吸收、溢出与中介个体效应,以中国工业产业技术扩散系统为实例进行有效性验证。     

中小企业技术创新网络的知识创造研究

中小企业以知识创造为目标构建或加入技术创新网络,以与网络中其它组织之间的优势互补、相互协作的方式来进行合作创新,为中小企业技术创新能力的提高提供了可行性思路。将典型的技术创新网络分为弱连接和强连接两种形态,在分析网络特征及知识创造过程的基础上,分别提出了两种形态在技术创新网络内部知识创造的机制模型。     

Role of International Trade in Chinese Economic Development

This study examines the interdependency between Chinese agricultural and industrial sectors. A dual economic model was developed to investigate the relationship between the two sectors and factors affecting Chinese economic development. The study reveals that inputs, such as labor, are important to Chinese economic development. Capital investment contributed to the growth of the Chinese industrial sector. The results also suggest that foreign trade has made a significant contribution to economic development. Growth of the Chinese agricultural sector seems to depend on industrial growth, but growth of the industrial sector does not rely on agricultural growth.     

The unbalanced growth hypothesis and the role of the state: The case of China's state-owned enterprises

Albert Hirschman's unbalanced growth hypothesis suggests that a developing economy can promote economic growth by initially investing in industries with high backward and forward linkages. In the case of Chinese economic policy today, one application would be the continued presence of the state in high-linkage sectors and the strategic withdrawal of the state from low-linkage sectors. The evidence shows that while the degree of linkage plays an important role in generating economic growth in China, province-specific withdrawal strategies for the state sector have no effect on economic growth.     

Structural Change and Economic Growth in China

This study develops a new analytical framework to account for sources of rapid economic growth in China. The traditional Solow approach is expanded to include another source of economic growth—structural change. The empirical results show that structural change has contributed to growth significantly by reallocating resources from low‐productivity sectors to high‐productivity sectors. It is found that the returns to capital investment in both agricultural production and rural enterprises are much higher than those in urban sectors, indicating underinvestment in rural areas. On the other hand, labor productivity in the agricultural sector remains low, a result of the still large surpluses of labor in the sector. Therefore, further development of rural enterprises and an increase in labor flow among sectors and across regions are key to improvements in overall economic efficiency.     

Competition,taxation and economic growth

The paper mainly examines the relationship between economic growth, tax policy and sectoral labor distribution in an endogenous growth model with expanding varieties. For analyzing these relationships, we consider an economy where three sectors of production are vertically integrated: final goods sector, intermediate goods sector and research sector. We show that the extent of imperfect competition in the intermediate products market affects both economic growth and the allocation of the available labor to all the sectors employing this input. The resources from capital taxation, which are used for financing research sector, have a U-shaped effect on growth and lead to a movement of the labor from research sector to final goods sector. Additionally, we show that if there exists a higher competitive structure in an economy, the probability of the positive effect of an increase in tax on growth gets higher.     

Data deepening and nonbalanced economic growth

As a newly emerging factor, data can promote economic growth by driving technological progress, and nonbalanced growth between digital industries and nondigital industries has been notable in recent years. This paper provides a novel growth model with two sectors that differ in the degree of data deepening and the factor structure of the production function. In the model, data in one sector is the by-product of economic activities not only in its sector, but also in the other sector. More importantly, data utilization within and across sectors can spur new ideas and promote technological innovation. The model indicates that increases in the stock of data in the two sectors have opposite effects on the allocation of skilled labor between the two sectors. The skill premium (the wage of skilled labor relative to the wage of unskilled labor) decreases with an increase in the fraction of skilled labor employed in the data-extensive sector. With credible parameter values, model calibration shows that faster growth of output occurs in the more data-intensive sector and the high skill premium persists in the long run.     

A two-sector Kaleckian model of growth and distribution with endogenous productivity dynamics

This study extends a two-sector Kaleckian model of output growth and income distribution by incorporating endogenous labour productivity growth. The model is composed of investment goods and consumption goods production sectors. The impact of a change in wage and profit shares on capacity utilisation and output growth rates at the sectoral and aggregate levels are identified. The study reveals short-run cyclical capacity utilisation rates and productivity growth dynamics. Even if the short-run steady state is stable, the capital accumulation rate in the consumption goods sector must decrease more than that in the investment sector for long-run stability. When simultaneous rises in profit shares in both the sectors affect long-run aggregate economic growth differently at a steady state, the distributional interests between the same class in different sectors may hamper the long-run economic growth. A policy message is that the effect of income distribution on industrial output growth is not always beneficial. These phenomena are specific to two-sector models and cannot be observed when using conventional aggregate growth models.     

我国通信部门对经济增长的外溢效应——基于面板数据和动态Feder模型

首先梳理了通信部门对经济增长的外溢性影响的特点,然后选取动态Feder模型,运用1995—2008年我国省级面板数据,对我国通信部门与经济增长之间的关系进行定量分析。结果表明:整体而言,我国通信部门对经济增长具有显著的促进作用,表现为通信部门自身促进经济增长的直接效应,以及通信部门通过技术、信息等多渠道产生的较强的外溢效应;从区域层面看,东、中部地区通信部门的外溢效应显著大于西部地区。     

劳动力转移过程中的高储蓄、高投资和中国经济增长

中国的转轨经济具有独特的增长模式,其典型特征就是持续的高储蓄率和高投资率。本文从劳动力转移的角度,解释了这种模式赖以产生的基础。我们认为,剩余劳动力由农业向工业(工业化)、由农村向城市(城市化)、由国有向非国有(市场化)的持续转移是我国经济能够长期、高速增长的关键,而高储蓄率和高投资率既是这种增长模式的必然结果,也是劳动力得以持续转移乃至这种增长模式得以维持的关键原因。为了防止效率低下的金融部门阻碍劳动力的转移,在开放经济条件下,引入纯粹金融意义的国际直接投资也就成为了必然。与此同时,本国金融部门也将持有一个规模逐步扩大的外汇储备。本文的另一个重要结论是,中国经济的增长和波动是统一的。尽管其中的机制有别于真实经济周期理论,但是,“中性”依然应该作为宏观经济政策的基本出发点。     

珠三角地区产业结构升级与区域经济发展——基于东莞市产业结构升级的实证研究

文章借鉴Feder非均衡模型的思想,构建了一个反映工业发展对经济发展影响的非均衡计量经济模型。模型分析表明,工业部门比非工业部门边际生产率更高,工业部门对非工业部门存在正的外部性,将更多的资本、人力等资源配置到工业部门有利于提高整个经济的生产率水平,推进产业结构升级,促进经济增长。     

Economic Integration,Growth and Income Distribution

This paper constructs a two‐sector growth model with heterogeneous labour, to explore the impact of the economic integration on growth and income distribution. There are two sectors in each country, including the consumption‐good sector and the R&D sector. We suppose that the R&D sector produces new blueprints or ideas for these innovations, and hence provides the engine of growth. Assume that the talent's distribution of workers is the uniform distribution. We show that the economic integration will stimulate the developing countries' economic growth and then decrease its income inequality. In addition, we also demonstrate that if the growth rate of the advanced country rises after the integration, then income inequality of that will increase, and vice versa.