Valuing water level changes in reservoirs using two stated preference approaches: An exploration of validity

The combination of travel cost (TCM) and contingent behaviour (CB) methods is a relatively new research avenue in the recreational valuation community. Contrary to simple TCM applications, TCM-CB facilitates the ex ante valuation of marginal welfare effects resulting from environmental quality or quantity changes, similar to the contingent valuation method (CV). Even though TCM-CB is highly policy relevant, i.e. to inform changes in management regimes at recreational sites, the validity of estimates has hardly received any attention and little is known about the performance of TCM-CB compared to CV. In this paper, TCM-CB and CV are explored with respect to several validity tests in a case study on the recreational effects of water level changes in a reservoir. Overall, the findings reveal that TCM-CB and CV perform equally well in terms of theoretical validity, but that the marginal recreational value varies significantly between the two methods. We also observe that both methods face similar internal difficulties with respect to the stability of values when the order of a set of valuation questions is changed.     

What to Value and How? Ecological Indicator Choices in Stated Preference Valuation

The ecological literature accepts that many policy outcomes cannot be observed directly and must be characterized using indicators. Multiple indicators can often be used to communicate similar ecological outcomes. Previous studies using alternative indicators in stated preference surveys suggest that welfare estimates may be indicator-dependent, casting doubt on whether welfare estimates are sufficiently reliable for cost benefit analysis. We suggest that the reason for such indicator dependence may be that indicators used in these prior studies represented different outcomes valued by respondents. This possibility underscores the need for greater attention to selection of indicators and their properties within stated preference survey design. This paper develops a model introducing the concept of outcome equivalent indicators, defined as indicators that provide alternative representations of identical underlying outcomes. To assess empirically whether welfare estimates are indeed robust to indicator choice when alternative indicators are expected to be outcome equivalent, we analyze data from a choice experiment estimating willingness to pay for migratory fish restoration in Rhode Island, USA. Results demonstrate that welfare estimates are robust to the use of alternative ecological indicators within stated preference scenarios.     

Are Internet surveys an alternative to face-to-face interviews in contingent valuation?

Internet is an increasingly popular data collection mode for stated preference research in environmental economics. However, little is known about how this survey mode may influence data quality and welfare estimates. As part of a national contingent valuation (CV) survey estimating willingness to pay (WTP) for biodiversity protection plans, we assign two groups of respondents either to an Internet or face-to-face (in-home) interview mode. Our design aims to better isolate measurement effects from sample composition effects by drawing both samples from the same sample frame. We find little evidence of social desirability bias in the interview setting or satisficing (shortcutting the response process) in the Internet survey. The share of “don't knows”, zeros and protest responses to the WTP question with a payment card is very similar between modes and equality of mean WTP cannot be rejected. Results are fairly encouraging for the use of Internet in CV as stated preferences do not seem to be significantly different or biased compared to face-to-face interviews.     

Preference uncertainty in contingent valuation

In this paper, the results of empirical studies that applied two widely used methods - numerical certainty scale (NCS) and polychotmous choice (PC) - for estimating preference uncertainty adjusted willingness to pay (WTP) in contingent valuation (CV), are summarized. For this review, a number of conclusions are reached. First, there is a lack of consensus about which method is more appropriate for measuring preference uncertainty. Second, although preference uncertainty information has been found useful in detecting the incidence of hypothetical bias in CV studies, a consensus about a standard certainty threshold (or treatment mechanism) at which hypothetical behaviour converges to real behaviour is yet to emerge. Third, insufficient empirical evidence exists about the causal relationship between preference uncertainty scores and the theoretically expected explanatory variables. Finally, the preference uncertainty adjusted PC and NCS models fail to provide a consistent and more efficient welfare estimate compared to the conventional dichotomous choice certainty model.     

Environmental risk and welfare valuation under imperfect information

Consumers are often uninformed, or unsure, about the ambient level of environmental risk. An optimal policy must jointly determine efficient levels of self-protection, information provision, and public risk mitigation efforts. Unfortunately, conventional welfare measures are not amenable to welfare analysis in the presence of imperfect information. We develop a theoretical welfare measure, called quasi-compensating variation, that is a natural extension of compensating variation (CV). We show that this welfare measure offers not only a money metric of the “value of information,” but also a means to appropriately evaluate the welfare effects of various policies when consumers are imperfectly informed about ambient risk. This welfare measure allows us to obtain a number of results that the traditional CV measure fails to offer. In particular, we show that the consumer’s willingness to pay for a (small) environmental risk reduction is higher for those who underestimate ambient risk than for those who overestimate or are perfectly informed if the marginal return to self-protection increases with ambient risk.     

The Aggregation of Climate Change Damages: a Welfare Theoretic Approach

The economic value of environmental goods is commonly determined using the concepts of willingness to pay (WTP) or willingness to accept (WTA). However, the WTP/WTA observed in different countries (or between individuals) will differ according to socio-economic characteristics, in particular income. This notion of differentiated values for otherwise identical goods (say, a given reduction in mortality risk) has been criticized as unethical, most recently in the context of the 'social cost' chapter of the IPCC Second Assessment Report. These critics argue that, being a function of income, WTP/WTA estimates reflect the unfairness in the current income distribution, and for equity reasons uniform per-unit values should therefore be applied across individuals and countries. This paper analyses the role of equity in the aggregation of climate change damage estimates, using basic tools of welfare economics. It shows one way of how WTP/WTA estimates can be corrected in aggregation if the underlying income distribution is considered unfair. It proposes that in the aggregation process individual estimates be weighted with an equity factor derived from the social welfare and utility functions. Equity weighting can significantly increase aggregate (global) damage figures, although some specifications of weighting functions also imply reduced estimates. The paper also shows that while the postulate of uniform per-unit values is compatible with a wide range of 'reasonable' utility and welfare specifications, there are also cases where the common-value notion is not compatible with defensible welfare concepts.     

Nonlinear income effects in random utility models: revisiting the accuracy of the representative consumer approximation

This article investigates the implications of nonlinear income effects in Random Utility Models (RUM) for measuring general equilibrium welfare impacts. A popular approach in applied welfare analysis is to approximate the expected compensating variation (cv) for an amenity change as the cv of a representative consumer whose indirect utility is given by the expected maximum utility. However, this approach can be misleading in the case of nonmarginal changes as it implies that changes in income do not affect the consumer's choice. In this case the true expected cv can be obtained via simulation. Empirical applications to recreational demand find that the bias from the representative approach is small. This article re-evaluates the accuracy of the representative consumer approximation in the context of measuring the general equilibrium welfare impacts of large environmental changes. Our findings suggest that, though the representative consumer approximation could lead to biased point estimates of the expected cv, this bias is overwhelmed by the size of the confidence intervals that result from the empirical estimation of household preferences.     

Exact welfare measurement for double-log demand with partial adjustment

This paper demonstrates that a double-log demand with partial adjustment (DLPA) is consistent with the theory of consumer utility maximization. It offers an approach for calculating the compensating variation (CV), the exact welfare effect of a change in a price series when a DLPA is employed. Significant bias may result if the CV is based on a static double-log demand when a DLPA function is appropriate. We revisit a recent study of demand for gasoline in the U.S., finding that the CV based on the static double-log would overstate the welfare effect of a 6-month temporary gasoline tax by 7.5%.     

Welfare-Induced Migration at State Borders: New Evidence from Micro-Data

This paper extends and synthesizes the various approaches used in the recent welfare migration literature to both offer the most comprehensive set of tests to date for welfare migration and to also determine the relative importance of short-distance moves in welfare migration flows. The current study follows on the finding of McKinnish (2005) of welfare migration effects obtained by comparing welfare participation at state borders to state interiors. This identification strategy is extended to micro-data from the 1980 and 1990 Decennial Censuses and combined with the demographic comparisons used elsewhere in the welfare migration literature. The signs and patterns of the estimates are consistent with the presence of welfare migration effects, and the magnitudes of the estimates are consistent with the importance of short-distance moves in welfare-induced migration flows, but most of the estimates are not statistically significant.     

Product market competition with differentiated goods and social welfare in the presence of an industry-wide union

Mainstream locus communis indicates that a more competitive product market leads to higher social welfare levels. Using a Conjectural Variation (CV) model, this research note analyzes the effects on welfare of different degrees of product market competition in a duopoly with differentiated goods. Bargaining between the firms and the industry-wide union occurs under the Efficient Bargaining (EB) model. The work indicates that, with close substitute goods, social welfare is maximized for the intermediate levels of market competition, whereas more independent goods lead to the standard result of a high welfare level under competitive markets.     

Incentives to Work: Replacement Ratios and the Cost of Job Loss among Indigenous Australians

The relationship between the social welfare system and employment incentives has received considerable attention in the literature. This paper uses data from the National Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Survey to consider these issues for indigenous Australians. Two measures are calculated: the replacement ratio which measures the expected gains from employment for those not in work; and the cost of job loss which measures the expected costsof becoming unemployed for those in employment. The estimates presented here show that the replacement ratio is higher for females than males and for those in a married or de facto relationship compared with single people. About 5 per cent of single males and females could expect a higher income from social security than from non-Community Development Employment Projects (CDEP)scheme employment. Among those with dependent partners 24 per cent of males and 40 per cent of females looking for work could expect a higher income from social security than from non-CDEP employment. The estimates of the cost of job loss, which include the effects of the duration of unemployment and the replacementratio, show a high cost for some indigenous Australians because of their expected longer duration of unemployment.     

Rational Poverty or Poor Rationality? The Take‐up of Social Assistance Benefits

In several countries social assistance dependence has been increasing since the 1980s. After surveying the theoretical and empirical take-up literature, this study presents estimates of recent rates of non take-up of social assistance benefits. Once methodological shortcomings of prior estimations are corrected, the results show that take-up has fallen recently and thus cannot explain the rising welfare receipt. Following theoretical predictions, the probability that a rational individual takes up social assistance increases with the expected benefit amount and duration, and falls with application cost and stigma. More than half of all households eligible for transfers under the German social assistance program did not claim their benefits.     

The effect of the U.S. welfare system on marital status

"An issue of long-standing importance in the U.S. welfare system has been its lack of neutrality with respect to family composition, which generally provides payments only to female-headed families--that is, families with no able-bodied male present. Using data from 1969 to 1985 to examine the issue, this study finds that (1) the simple cross-sectional correlations between marital status and welfare benefits are almost always in the expected direction but are generally weak in significance; (2) that the magnitude and significance of the correlations have nevertheless grown over time; and (3) that the correlations for men are no weaker and usually stronger, especially for blacks, than those for women."     

On The Distributional Effects Of Reducing Capital Taxes*

This article asks whether household heterogeneity and market incompleteness have quantitatively important implications for the welfare effects of tax changes. We compare a representative‐agent economy to an economy in which households face idiosyncratic uninsurable income risk. The income process is consistent with empirical estimates and implies a realistic wealth distribution. We find that capital tax cuts imply large welfare gains in the representative‐agent economy. However, when households are heterogeneous, substantial redistribution during transition means that only a minority will support capital tax cuts, whereas most households can expect large welfare losses.     

TIME‐INCONSISTENCY AND WELFARE PROGRAM PARTICIPATION: EVIDENCE FROM THE NLSY*

We empirically implement a dynamic structural model of labor supply and welfare program participation for agents with potentially time‐inconsistent preferences. Using panel data on the choices of single women with children from the National Longitudinal Surveys (NLSY) 1979, we provide estimates of the degree of time‐inconsistency, and of its influence on the welfare take‐up decision. With these estimates, we conduct counterfactual experiments to quantify a measure of the utility loss stemming from the inability to commit to future decisions, and the potential gains from commitment mechanisms such as welfare time limits and work requirements.     

Contingent valuation and actual payment for voluntarily provided passive-use values: Assessing the effect of an induced truth-telling mechanism and elicitation formats

A fundamental question about the contingent valuation (CV) method is to what degree it predicts actual payments (AP). This has particularly been an intriguing matter related to voluntary provision of public goods representing primarily passive-use values. This paper reports the results from such a CV–AP comparison. Applying a voluntary payment mechanism there exists a theoretical expectation of upward bias in CV estimates and downward bias in AP. This study applied an induced truth-telling mechanism in one treatment group to assess the hypothetical bias effect in CV. The CV estimates in this treatment group were significantly lower than in the group that did not face this mechanism. But this effect was limited to those responding/acting to dichotomous choice, not affecting those responding to open-ended questions about willingness to pay.     

Information Exchange and Transnational Environmental Problems

This paper analyzes information exchange in a model of transnational pollution control in which countries use private information in independently determining their domestic environmental policies. We show that countries may not always have an incentive to exchange their private information. However, for a sufficiently high degree of predictability of domestic environmental policy processes, the expected welfare from sharing information is greater than the expected welfare from keeping it private. The minimum degree of policy predictability for which information sharing occurs increases with the level of environmental risk. Intuitively, information exchange can help mitigate the perception of global uncertainty (both political and scientific) that surrounds transnational environmental problems and potentially improve welfare if policymaking processes are sufficiently aligned with evidence-based approaches (predictable).     

Contribution of Contingent Valuation and Other Stated Preference Methods to Evaluation of Environmental Policy

Some form of stated preference method is essential for comprehensive evaluation of environmental policy options. The two most important stated preference methods are contingent valuation (CV) and choice modelling. I identify and discuss the major challenges facing CV and choice modelling researchers. Choice modelling applications to environmental valuation are comparatively recent, so the emphasis in this paper is on the more extensive body of CV research. The development of CV has been characterised by a (generally) constructive debate both within the economics profession, and between economists, philosophers, psychologists and other social scientists. As a result, much has been learnt about the nature of non-market economic values and how they might be measured. Important issues are the extent to which existing stated preference methods accurately represent individuals' values, and provide valid and reliable measures of changes in economic welfare. I review each of these issues in the light of recent theoretical and empirical work, identify the major outstanding problems, and indicate areas where progress is being made. I argue that the problems are solvable, and that eventually a theoretically sound and empirically effective method will be developed.     

Empirical Evidence Showing The Relationships Between Three Approaches for Pollution Control

Willingness to pay models have shown the theoretical relationships between the contingent valuation, cost of illness and the avertive behaviour approaches. In this paper, field survey data are used to compare the relationships between these three approaches and to demonstrate that contingent valuation bids exceed the sum of cost of illness and the avertive behaviour approach estimates. The estimates provide a validity check for CV bids and further support the claim that contingent valuation studies are theoretically consistent.