Regional stock market integration in Singapore: A multivariate analysis

This paper evaluates the time-varying integration of the Singapore stock market in the ASEAN-5 region based on a conditional version of the International Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM) with c-DCC-FIAPARCH parameters. This model allows for dynamic changes in the degree of market integration, regional market risk premium, regional exchange-rate risk premium, and domestic market risk premium. Our findings show several interesting facts. First, the time-varying degree of integration in the Singapore market is satisfactorily explained by the level of trade openness and the term premium of US interest rates, which have recently tended to increase, however these markets remain substantially segmented from the world market. Second, the local market risk premium is found to explain a significant proportion of the total risk premium for emerging market returns. Our findings illustrate several important implications for portfolio hedgers for making optimal portfolio allocations, engaging in risk management and forecasting future volatility in equity markets. Our results are also of interest for both policymakers and investors, with respect to regional development policies and dedicated portfolio investment strategies in the ASEAN-5 region.     

银行效率的决定因素：跨国实证

本文基于1990—2009年间68个主要国家和经济体的面板数据，从管理效率、市场竞争性和盈利能力三个基本方面对影响一国银行业效率的相关因素进行了实证分析。实证结果表明：从宏观经济政策来看，保持宏观经济的持续稳定增长，稳步推进资本账户开放，将有助于提高一国银行业的整体效率；从银行产业发展来看，银行业效率的提高需要在保持适度资产规模和产业集中度的基础上，防止银行信贷的过度扩张和银行危机的发生；从制度文化发展来看，加强产权保护，促进社会信用文化水平的提升，将有助于一国银行业效率的整体提升。     

Waves of international banking integration: A tale of regional differences

We propose an original measure of international banking integration based on gravity equations and a spline function on a panel of 14 countries and their 186 partners between 1999 and 2012. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, we uncover that: (1) the international banking integration outside the euro area has been tenaciously increasing since \1999 and has even strengthened after the crisis. (2) In contrast, the international banking integration of the euro area has been cyclical since 1999 with a peak in 2006 and a complete reversal since then. (3) This decline is not a correction of previous overshooting but a marked disintegration. (4) Outside the euro area, the level of income does not affect the shape of banking integration.     

中国银行业高利润的来源:市场势力还是高效率

中国银行业的高利润究竟来源于行政垄断保护下的市场势力溢价,还是应对未来金融开放环境下的激烈竞争进行改革带来经营效率的提高,抑或是整体经济稳定增长的结果?通过对银行业系统市场势力和经营效率测度发现,银行业整体存在着较高的系统性市场势力溢价,且规模弹性小于1;银行业整体效率低下,全要素生产率平均增长为负值;银行业的高利润主要来源于行政垄断造成的行业系统性市场势力,而非因改革带来的效率提高,GDP的增长一定程度上促成了银行业的高利润。     

Bank credit risk,grain production and the Indian economy

ABSTRACT

We generate measures of banking risk across Indian states and examine the relationship between banking risk and economic production in India. We find that banking risk co-moves with total grain production (TPG) and real gross domestic product (RGDP). The long-term impact of banking risk differs across Indian states. Ten states are negatively affected while one state maintains growth in RGDP. Likewise, the results show that six states are negatively affected while two states maintain growth in TPG. Banking risk is found to induce a larger decline in TPG than in RGDP at the national and state levels. Overall, banking risk shocks induce negative effects on both TPG and RGDP.     

商业银行监管的国际比较:模式及影响——兼论中国的商业银行监管模式选择

本文系统研究了世界上 1 1 8个国家 (地区 )的商业银行监管模式及其对金融发展水平的影响。基于以下四种维度的不同组合 :1 )政府拥有银行的程度 ;2 )政府直接监管银行的力度 ;3 )政府授权非政府机构进行监管的力度 ;4)明确的存款保险制度涵盖范围 ,我们把世界各国 (地区 )的商业银行监管模式划分为三大类 :1 )印度 -中国型 ;2 )南非-菲律宾 -墨西哥型 ;3 )德国 -美国 -瑞士 -法国型。比较不同的监管模式 ,在促进金融业发展方面 ,德国 -美国 -瑞士 -法国型的监管模式最佳 ,南非 -菲律宾 -墨西哥型次之 ,而印度 -中国型最差。比较中国的商业银行监管模式与世界平均水平以及德国和美国的差异 ,结果显示了中国过多的对政府拥有银行和直接的事先监管的依赖。     

Threshold effect of economic openness on bank risk-taking: Evidence from emerging markets

This paper investigates the non-linear effects of two aspects of economic openness, namely, trade openness and financial openness, on banking system stability. We use a panel of 42 emerging markets from 2000 to 2014 to test whether bank risk-taking behaviour varies with the level of openness. We find that a higher degree of trade openness promotes bank stability linearly. Conversely, the non-linear effect of financial openness on bank risk-taking is evident. When the financial system is not sufficiently open, the impact of financial openness on bank stability is insignificant. However, as the domestic financial market becomes more open, financial openness can help discipline the behaviour of banks, making them more stable. We also find evidence that these effects are transmitted through the market discipline channel. Our findings highlight the importance of strengthening the domestic regulatory framework and transparency as the economy becomes more integrated.     

Trade openness,internet finance development and banking sector development in China

This paper investigates the impact of trade openness on Internet finance development in China. Using a unique panel data set for 29 Chinese provinces, we find that trade openness has a positive impact on Internet finance development and is a leading indicator of Internet finance development. Further analyses show that higher trade openness is associated with faster Internet finance development in wealthier provinces. Moreover, we investigate the effect of Internet finance development on the banking sector development. The empirical results suggest that Internet finance development has a positive effect on the banking sector size and efficiency.     

Financial market development and trade openness: evidence from emerging economies

International trade is said to be the engine of economic growth. Despite an enormous effort to explain this phenomenon, the relationship between financial market development and trade openness and integration into the world economy is still an enigma. This article investigates the relationship between financial market development and trade openness. To do this, we develop a long-run and short-run model (a bounds testing approach to cointegration) for 18 emerging economies over the period 1980 to 2011. Estimates from all models show that financial market development, including both the stock market and the banking sector, has significant effect on trade openness in both short-run and long-run phenomena in the majority of countries. Despite many similarities among emerging economies, additional evidence suggests that the link between either stock market development or banking sector development with trade openness works via each country’s specific structure.     

Financial Integration in Emerging Asia: Challenges and Prospects

Using both quantity‐ and price‐based measures of financial integration, the paper shows an increasing degree of financial openness and integration in emerging Asia. Assessing the impact of a regional shock relative to a global shock on local equity and bond markets, the findings suggest that the region's equity markets are integrated more globally than regionally, although the degrees of both regional and global integration have increased significantly since the 1997/1998 Asian financial crisis. However, emerging Asia's local currency bond markets remain generally segmented, being neither regionally nor globally integrated. There are potential benefits from increased regional integration of financial markets. Financial integration at the regional level allows for the region's economies to benefit from allocation efficiency and risk diversification. Policymakers in the region must strike the right balance between maximizing the net benefits from regional and global financial openness, and minimizing the potential costs of financial contagion and crisis.     

当前中国银行业面临的风险分析与判断

本文借鉴银行危机发生机理,对比分析了当前我国经济运行状态和银行风险因素,对当前中国银行业面临的风险程度进行了深入分析判断。本文认为,中国未来一段时间爆发系统性银行危机的可能性不大,但当前确实存在一些深度的风险因素,需要中国银行业引起重视与关注并采取措施积极应对,并针对性的提出了一些措施建议。     

Sudden stops, banking crises and investment collapses in emerging markets

We evaluate whether financial openness leaves emerging market economies vulnerable to the adverse effects of capital reversals (“sudden stops”) on domestic investment. We investigate this claim in a broad sample of emerging markets during the period 1976–2002. If the banking sector does not experience a systemic crisis, sudden stop events fail to have a significant impact on investment. Bank crises, on the other hand, have a significant negative effect on investment even in the absence of a contemporaneous sudden stop crisis. We also find that openness to capital flows worsens the adverse impact of banking crises on investment. Our results provide statistical support for the policy view that a strong banking sector which can withstand the negative fallout of capital flight is essential for countries that open their economies to international financial flows.     

Institutional Determinants of Financial Development in MENA countries

Developed and well regulated financial markets are usually seen as a precondition for an efficient allocation of resources and can foster long term economic growth. This paper explores the institutional determinants for financial development in the countries of the Middle East and North African (MENA) region. Institutional conditions are from the International Country Risk Guide. Panel‐econometric techniques are applied to assess the development in the banking sector and the stock market. As a main finding, institutional conditions are important in both financial segments, even after controlling for standard macroeconomic determinants and fixed effects. For the banking sector, corruption seems to be most decisive. For the stock market, the impact of corruption and law and order appear to be relevant. While per capita income and inflation do not seem to play a vital role, openness to foreign trade is quite important for all areas of financial development. Hence, overall, faster real economic integration is of key policy priority to improve financial development as a condition for higher GDP growth. Better law and enforcement practices and anti‐corruption policies are strategies to accompany this process.     

Capital account openness and early warning system for banking crises in G20 countries

This paper develops an early warning system for banking crises in the G20 countries, with the inclusion of capital account openness indicators. Results suggest that the capital account openness demonstrates a significant predictive power on systemic banking crises, and the impact is related with the level of the economic development. For low-income countries, increased capital account openness has a significantly negative impact on the banking crises likelihoods, while for high-income countries it imposes a positive impact. For middle-income countries, however, the occurrence of banking crises is more indifferent to capital account liberalization.     

Banking strategy and credit expansion: a post-Keynesian approach

This paper aims to clarify the relationship between individualbanks and banking industry behaviour in credit expansion. Theauthors argue that the balance sheet structure of an individualbank is only partially determined by its management's decisionabout how aggressively to expand credit; it is also determinedby the balance sheet positions of other banks. This relationshipis shown explicitly by a simple disaggregation of the variablesthat enter into the economy-wide money multiplier. The approachtaken here revives the multi-bank approach to banking analysispioneered by Wallace and Karmel in the 1960s, which is particularlywell-suited to integrating micro and macro levels in Keynesianbanking analysis.     

银行业结构与经济增长

本文运用中国28个省区在1985—2002年间的面板数据,考察银行业结构对经济增长的影响。文章对银行业结构的分析着眼于不同规模的银行在银行体系中的相对重要性,度量指标为中小金融机构的市场份额,即四大国有商业银行之外的其他金融机构的贷款余额占各地区全部金融机构贷款余额的比例。为了克服银行业结构可能存在的内生性问题,文章用1994年启动的国有银行商业化改革的政策因素来构造银行业结构的工具变量。运用双向固定效应模型的估计结果显示,在中国现阶段,中小金融机构市场份额的上升对经济增长具有显著的正向影响。     

Financial development and openness: Evidence from panel data

This paper addresses the empirical question of whether trade and financial openness can help explain the recent pace in financial development, as well as its variation across countries in recent years. Utilising annual data from developing and industrialised countries and dynamic panel estimation techniques, we provide evidence which suggests that both types of openness are statistically significant determinants of banking sector development. Our findings reveal that the marginal effects of trade (financial) openness are negatively related to the degree of financial (trade) openness, indicating that relatively closed economies stand to benefit most from opening up their trade and/or capital accounts. Although these economies may be able to accomplish more by taking steps to open both their trade and capital accounts, opening up one without the other could still generate gains in terms of banking sector development. Thus, our findings provide only partial support to the well known Rajan and Zingales hypothesis, which stipulates that both types of openness are necessary for financial development to take place.     

为什么要复制银行:自由银行业思想的回归?

从自由银行时期至今,商业银行一般都有严格的进入限制。在此背景下,非银行金融机构为什么要复制银行,为什么能复制银行?本文通过梳理自由银行时期前后英国和美国的银行特许权演变历史发现,复制银行的动力包括两种因素。一方面,商业银行的特许权内涵在不断扩大,由最初的发钞特许权演变为吸收存款、发放贷款、发行短期债务等普通业务特许权,与此同时,特许权价值随着金融自由化、金融创新和商业银行自身活动表外化等因素则不断降低。另一方面,美国的金融监管制度呈现整体放松趋势,尤其是约束影子银行体系的两个重要方面——货币市场的证券发行和信贷资产投资主体资格——的法律都得以放松。这两个方面的因素均源于一种思想——自由银行业思想的反复回归,最终促成现代影子银行体系得以复制银行功能并获得迅速发展。     

Financial development and financial openness nexus: the precondition of banking competition

We examine the dynamic relationship between financial development and financial openness using the pooled mean group estimator developed by Pesaran et al. (1999). Our results show that financial openness has a positive effect on financial development in the long run, but may have a negative effect in the short run. Using estimates of country-specific short-run coefficients, we also find that the adverse short-run effects of financial openness are associated with a lower degree of banking competition. The system GMM estimator also supports these findings, suggesting that the financial development and financial openness nexus is contingent on the degree of banking competition. A key policy implication is that a higher degree of banking competition is a precondition for financial openness to promote financial development.     

究竟是什么决定了一国银行业的发展

既有文献对银行业发展问题的研究,大多集中于微观层面,基于宏观层面和国家样本的分析相对不足。文章通过对全球范围内具有代表性的59个国家的实证分析,从银行业规模、效率和结构3个基本维度系统考察了决定不同国家银行业整体发展的相关因素。实证结果表明,对银行业整体规模产生显著影响的因素包括宏观经济稳定性、银行业务管制、政府的监管水平、金融开放程度以及社会信用水平;对银行业整体效率产生显著影响的因素包括宏观经济稳定性、良好的制度和管理、银行经营的规模效应、金融体系结构和监管要求;对银行业结构产生显著影响的因素包括银行业总体规模、银行业务管制、银行业开放程度以及银行腐败程度。