Staggered wages,unanticipated shocks and firms’ adjustments

This paper empirically investigates the employment and wage effects of contract staggering, i.e., the asynchronous and infrequent way in which wages adjust to changes in the economic environment. Using an identification strategy based on exogenous start dates of collective agreements around the Great Recession, we estimate the effect of increases in base wages on firms’ labor cost adjustments. Our analysis is based on a large employers-employees dataset merged to collective agreements in the Netherlands, a country in which collective bargaining is dominant and contract staggering is relatively pervasive. The main result is that staggered wage setting has no real effect on employment. We find significant employment losses only in sectors covered by contracts with much longer durations than those normally assumed in macroeconomic models featuring staggered wages. Instead, we show that firms adjust labor costs by curbing other pay components such as bonuses and benefits and incidental pay. The overall result supports the idea that wage rigidities are not the main source of employment fluctuations.     

The Impact of Income Taxation on the Labor Supply of Part-time and Full-time Workers

This paper estimates the effect of income taxation on the labor supply of part-time and full-time workers in the United States. Using a model that incorporates the endogeneity of the net wage rate and the virtual income, and correcting for self-selection into part-time and full-time jobs, the results indicate that part-time workers are relatively more responsive to changes in income tax than full-time workers. Estimated wage elasticities are relatively larger for part-time than for full-time workers.The simulation results indicate that income tax has a disincentive effect on both part-time and full-time workers, with part-time and full-time workers reducing their labor supply by 0.87 and 0.58 hours, respectively, if a 5% tax is imposed. However, the percentage reduction in hours of work is very small, and a tax policy may have little effect on the labor supply of workers.The results seem to suggest that female and black part-time workers are more likely to drop out of the labor force at higher levels of income tax. It also tests the hypothesis that the labor supply behavior of parttime and full-time workers differs.The test results indicate that the determinants of the labor supply of part-time workers are different from those of full-time workers. It is noted that there is a significant difference between the labor supply of male part-time and female parttime workers, as well as between the black part-time and white part-time workers. In order to reduce voluntary unemployment in market activities among married females and blacks, the government can encourage part-time work by sponsoring legislation or instituting a scheme that will allow part-time workers to pay relatively less in payroll taxes.     

IMMIGRANT RELATIVE WAGES AT THE GREAT RECESSION: EVIDENCE WITH MATCHED EMPLOYER‐EMPLOYEE DATA FOR SPAIN

The article examines relative wages of immigrants in Spain, with a particular focus on the impact of the Great Recession. The empirical analysis is restricted to men and is based on matched employer‐employee microdata and the decomposition techniques of Juhn et al. (1991, 1993) and Fortin et al. (2011). Our results show that the significant native‐immigrant wage gap that exists both in terms of average wages and of differentials along the wage distribution is essentially explained by differences in the endowments of observed characteristics so that, in general, immigrants tend to receive a similar wage treatment than Spaniards with analogous observed attributes. On the other hand, the Great Recession has had a noticeable impact on the relative wages of immigrants, given that the significant increase of the native‐immigrant wage gap observed during the previous expansionary period was mitigated during the economic downturn due to composition effects arising from the severe employment destruction pattern.     

The gender difference in wages and the returns to schooling over the great recession in the U.S.

This paper examines the effects of the Great Recession on the gender difference in hourly wage and the rate of return to schooling in the United States. Using data from American Community Survey 2000–2015, we find that the male-female difference in hourly wage declined during and after the recession. The Great Recession decreased earnings for both men and women, especially for those with more education. We also find there is a significant gender difference in the effects of the Great Recession on the returns to schooling. The Great Recession increased the rate of return to schooling for both men and women, and the female-male difference in the returns to schooling decreased by 0.4 percentage points in the post-recession period. The change of the gender difference in the returns to schooling can be explained by the wage structure change for men and women over the recession.     

Labor market decisions of married women: With emphasis on part-time employment

Part-time employment may be viewed as a bridge between nonemployment and full-time employment or as an alternative to full-time employment. For married women with young children, part-time employment represents an efficient labor market solution to balancing the responsibilities of career and family. This paper estimates the probability of part-time employment for married women by utilizing a multinomial logit model for data extracted from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics [2000]. The paper focuses on the analysis of qualitative dependent variables to predict the probabilities for three distinct labor market decisions. The sample is further stratified to capture the effects of age on a married woman's labor market decision. A clearer picture of part-time employment should provide important insight into the labor market decisions of married women.     

Definition of full-time and part-time employment,and distributional assumptions: the implications for the estimated full-time and part-time wage equations

This paper demonstrates that rejecting the standard definition of full-time and part-time workers, the estimated number of hours that an individual is likely to work as a full-time worker is a function of the type of distribution one assumes about the error term in the wage equation. Adopting a switching regression model with unknown sample selection, we have found that the normality assumption generates higher hours for full-timers in comparison with the non-normal distributions. We also noted that regardless of the distribution assumed, the hours differ from one industry to another. The implication is that the standard definition of full-time and part-time worker may not be appropriate for all firms irrespective of the distribution assumed. The paper also shows the sensitivity of parameter estimates to the distributional assumptions about the error term in the wage equation. The results indicate that the normal distribution wage equation estimates are relatively larger than the Weibull and exponential distributions. This finding is particularly important because such differences in estimated coefficients may have a direct wage influence on the wage gap between full-time and part-time workers across distributions.     

The Choice of Technology and Rural-Urban Migration in Economic Development

This paper studies a general equilibrium model of rural-urban migration in which manufacturing firms engage in oligopolistic competition and choose increasing returns technologies to maximize profits. Urban residents incur commuting costs to work in the Central Business District. Surprisingly a change in the size of the population or an increase in the exogenously given wage rate will not affect a manufacturing firm’s choice of technology. This helps to explain why firms in developing countries may not adopt labor intensive technologies even under abundant labor supply. An increase in the number of manufacturing firms increases both the employment rate and the level of employment in the manufacturing sector. However, manufacturing firms choose less advanced technologies. Capital accumulation leads manufacturing firms to choose more advanced technologies, but may not increase employment in the manufacturing sector.     

Full wages,part-time employment and the minimum wage

The economic effects of the minimum wage have become increasingly ambiguous. Historically, economists have asserted that increases in the minimum wage result in increases in unemployment. This relationship has been challenged recently by Card and Krueger, Katz and Krueger, and Card. These authors have provided empirical evidence that seems to indicate that there is no relationship between various economic variables (such as level of employment, and product price, among others) and the minimum wage. In addition, these authors have not provided a cogent presentation of the effects of the minimum wage on part-time employment. This study examines, from a theoretical standpoint, the effects of the minimum wage on employment. Furthermore, we emphasize the distinction between money wages and full wages; and the role that part-time employmentplays in the analysis. After incorporating these factors into a theoretical presentation, we provide empirical evidence by way of an OLS regression. We conclude that firms respond to increases in the minimum wage by altering the level of part-time employment. By doing this, firms are able to absorb the minimum wage increase because part timers receive fewer fringe benefits.     

Interindustry part-time and full-time wage differentials: regional and national analysis

This paper provides more evidence that the wage differential is far smaller than is suggested by simple comparison of gross wages of full-time and part-time workers. It is noted that to obtain a more reasonable measure of the full-time and part-time wage differential, it is necessary to adjust for differences in workers' characteristics, labour market conditions and sample selection. It is found that, in general, full-time and part-time workers exhibit different personal characteristics. In particular, full-time workers possess more human capital and experience than part-timers. Also, labour market conditions such as unions and pension plans favour full-timers. These differences may partly account for the wage disparity between full-time and part-time workers. It was noted that the nonrandomness of the workers into full-time and part-time jobs influences the wage determination of both full-time and part-time workers. The results indicate that the adjustment of the wage equations to reflect the above mentioned differences reduces the national wage differential between full-time and part-time workers by 10%. The reduction is even larger across regions and industries. Another finding was that the wage determination processes between full-time and part-time workers do differ.     

Employment and output effects of financial shocks

This paper develops a New Keynesian model featured with financial frictions in the form of an exogenous credit constraint to explore the employment and output effects of financial shocks. I show that the equity payout adjustment costs are crucial for the transmission mechanism of financial shocks. The model is estimated using the Bayesian methods and simulated using the observed exogenous shocks for two periods, 1954:III–1983:IV and 1984:I–2015:I. Overall, it is found that financial shocks can account for the observed dynamics of employment and output, especially the sharp decreases during the Great Recession 2007–2008. Additionally, the financial shock is the third and second biggest contributor to output and employment variations, respectively, in the earlier period, but it turns out to be the main source of employment and output fluctuations in the later period. I find that firms are faced higher equity payout adjustment costs in the period 1984:I–2015:I, which accounts for greater variations in the equity payouts in the period.     

Distant but Close in Sight: Firm-level Evidence on French–German Productivity Gaps in Manufacturing

We study productivity-level distributions of manufacturing firms in France and Germany, and how these distributions evolved across the Great Recession. We show the presence of a systematic productivity advantage of German firms over French ones in the decade 2003–2013, but the gap has narrowed down after the Great Recession. Convergence is explained by the better growth performance of French firms in the post-recession period, especially of those located in the top percentiles of the productivity distribution. We also highlight the role of sectoral growth, firm size, and export intensity in explaining the above convergence. In contrast, the contribution of allocative efficiency was small.     

Nonlinearities in the U.S. wage Phillips curve

We examine the relationship between wage inflation and the unemployment rate in the U.S. economy for the 1964–2014 period by means of a three-regime threshold regression model. The estimated threshold parameters suggest that this relationship changes when the unemployment rate transitions between regimes defined by 5.61% and 7.63%. During mild recessions and their subsequent recoveries, the time-varying estimates of the model indicate a negative relationship between both variables, consistent with the implications of a wage Phillips curve (WPC) derived from the standard New Keynesian model with staggered wage setting in Galí (2011). However, we find that this relationship breaks down during deep recessions and their recovery periods, which explains the difference between wage inflation predicted by standard New Keynesian models and the observed low wage growth in the aftermath of the ‘Great Recession’. This finding and the fact that statistical tests strongly favor our three-regime model suggest that linear and two-regime models are insufficient to account for all the variability in the relationship between wage inflation and unemployment.     

The contribution of start-ups and young firms to industry-level efficiency growth

This article examines the impact of start-ups (active for 1 up to 5 years) and young firms (active for 6 up to 10 years) on industry-level efficiency growth in six EU countries, covering the period 2002–2009. Using semi-parametric estimates of meta-frontier efficiency, it is found that surviving entrants gradually raise their efficiency level in all countries considered. Firm-level efficiency growth decreases with firm age, whereas reallocation towards efficient firms contributes more to industry-level growth as firms mature. The relative contribution of start-ups appears to have been important as they actually contributed positively to overall efficiency growth which, over the period under consideration, was negative in most countries, even before the ‘Great Recession’. There are indications of ‘cleansing’, due to the exit of less efficient firms, during the ‘Great Recession’.     

Occupational sex segregation in the UK 1979–89: the role of part-time employment

In this article, the pattern of occupational segregation by sex in the UK between 1979 and 1989 is explored through the decomposition of the new Karmel Maclachlan index. Over the upturn, 1983–89, integration of the sexes, as measured by the Composition Effect occurred faster for full-time employment than total (full-time and part-time) employment. On the other hand, integration, in general, proceeded more slowly over the downturn of 1979–83 but total employment showed a more rapid rate of desegregation than full-time employment. Further analysis of the index, based on notional redistributions of part-time and full-time employment, confirms that part-time employment appears to be disproportionately responsible for the overall level of occupational sex segregation and to inhibit its decline over the upswing. These results are attributed to the different labour supply behaviour of males and females and the propensity of employers to treat part-time employees as a flexible reserve. Policies are outlined to counteract both the unequal treatment of part-time workers, particularly women, and the allocative inefficiency caused by the growth of part-time employment, relative to full-time employment.     

MARKET POWER AND EFFICIENCY IN A SEARCH MODEL*

We build a theoretical model to study the welfare effects and policy implications of firms’ market power in a frictional labor market. The main characteristics of our environment are that wages play a role in allocating labor across firms and the number of agents is finite. The decentralized equilibrium is inefficient and the firms’ market power results in the misallocation of workers from the high to the low productivity firms. A minimum wage exacerbates the inefficiencies by forcing the low‐productivity firms to increase their wage. Moderate unemployment benefits can increase welfare by improving the workers’ outside option.     

The macroeconomics of the quiet revolution: Understanding the implications of the rise in women’s participation for economic growth and inequality

We study the impact of the rise in female labor supply on the economic performance of the United States over the period 1967–2002 through the lens of a calibrated structural model. The model features all the key forces behind the increase in female participation (the “Quiet Revolution”): (1) the decline in marriage rates, (2) the narrowing gender wage gap, (3) the preference (or cultural) shift towards market work, and (4) the change in women’s bargaining power within the household. We find that preference shifts and the rise in relative wages of women were the most important driving forces behind rising women’s participation, while changes in marriage patterns have also had a sizeable effect. We conclude that half of the growth in US earnings per capita over this period can be traced to growth in female labor supply. We also find that the rise in female labor supply has had offsetting effects on income inequality and, therefore, its overall role has been negligible relative to skill-biased demand shifts and rising residual wage volatility.     

Migration and imperfect labor markets: Theory and cross-country evidence from Denmark,Germany and the UK

We investigate the labor market effects of immigration in Denmark, Germany and the UK, three countries which are characterized by considerable differences in labor market institutions and welfare states. Institutions such as collective bargaining, minimum wages, employment protection and unemployment benefits affect the way in which wages respond to labor supply shocks, and, hence, the labor market effects of immigration. We employ a wage-setting approach which assumes that wages decline with the unemployment rate, albeit imperfectly. We find that the wage and employment effects of immigration depend on wage flexibility and the composition of the labor supply shock. In Germany immigration involves only moderate wage, but large unemployment effects, since immigrants are concentrated in labor market segments with low wage flexibility. The reverse is true for the UK and Denmark.     

Is Part-Time Employment after Childbirth a Stepping-Stone into Full-Time Work? A Cohort Study for East and West Germany

Does part-time work support first-time mothers’ employment by providing a stepping-stone into full-time work in Germany? Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel from 1984–2012, this study compares three different age cohorts of first-time East and West German mothers to investigate whether there has been any convergence between East and West Germany in the way women use part-time employment. Results show that mothers in West Germany in all cohorts tended to remain in part-time employment for longer periods than those in East Germany. Part-time employment more often provided a stepping-stone into full-time employment in East Germany than in West Germany. East German women who gave birth after reunification were less likely than older cohorts to experience a transition from part-time to full-time work. Thus, part-time employment not followed by subsequent full-time work has become more common in the East.     

The impact of the net percentage growth rate in the number of small firms on differential state-level employment growth rates in the US: an exploratory empirical note

This brief exploratory empirical note seeks to identify key determinants of geographic differentials in the percentage growth rate of state-level employment in the US, with the primary focus being on the percentage net growth rate in the number of small firms (i.e., those with fewer than 20 employees) in each state, where this variable serves as a de facto reflection of ‘entrepreneurship’. In the interest of identifying other key factors that influence state-level employment growth rates, the effective income tax rate in each state, quality of life elements and labour market considerations are also included in the analysis. The study period runs from the year 2000 to the year 2007, ending just prior to the ‘Great Recession’. The estimation results imply that the state-level employment growth rate in the US was an increasing function of the percentage net growth rate in the number of small firms in each state. Thus, it appears that the small firms growth rate may in fact be a significant source.     

Incidence and Duration of Unemployment Spells: Implications on the Wage Differentials of Part-Time and Full-Time Workers

This article analyzes the extent to which incidence of unemployment and duration of unemployment spells affect the wage differentials between full-time and part-time workers. The estimation results of a sample selectivity bias–adjusted wage equation reveal that high incidences of unemployment are associated with low wages for both full-time and part-time workers. However, the reduction in wages due to incidence of unemployment is larger for full-time workers in high-paid jobs than for their part-time counterparts. Duration of unemployment spells affects full-time and part-time workers differently. In general, longer unemployment spells tend to increase the wages of full-time workers but tend to depress the wages of part-time workers. Although the probability of unemployment is not a factor in explaining the wage differential, the duration of unemployment accounts for a substantial portion (about 66.6% in full sample) of the wage differential that exists between full-time and part-time workers.