The labor market impact of immigration in Western Germany in the 1990s

In this article we estimate the wage and employment effects of recent immigration in Western Germany. Using administrative data for the period 1987-2001 and a labor-market equilibrium model, we find that the substantial immigration of the 1990s had very little adverse effects on native wages and on their employment levels. Instead, it had a sizeable adverse employment effect on previous immigrants as well as a small adverse effect on their wages. These asymmetric results are partly driven by a higher degree of substitution between old and new immigrants in the labor market and in part by the rigidity of wages in less than flexible labor markets. In a simple counter-factual experiment we show that in a world of perfect wage flexibility and no unemployment insurance the wage-bill loss of old immigrants would be much smaller.     

Migration and Wage‐setting: Reassessing the Labor Market Effects of Migration*

In this paper we employ a wage‐setting approach to analyze the labor market effects of immigration into Germany from 1980 to 2004. This enables us to consider labor market rigidities, which are prevalent in Europe. We find that the elasticity of the wage‐setting curve is particularly high for young workers. Moreover, natives and foreigners are imperfect substitutes. The wage and employment effects of immigration depend on the skill structure of the immigrant workforce. Because the foreign labor supply shift has mainly affected the high‐skilled labor market segment, the 4 percent increase of the workforce through immigration has not increased either aggregate or foreign unemployment.     

The dynamic impact of immigration on natives' labor market outcomes: Evidence from Israel

This paper studies the short and medium run impact of highly skilled immigrants from the Former Soviet Union to Israel on natives' wages and employment. If immigrants are relatively good substitutes for native workers, the impact of immigration will be largest immediately upon the immigrants' arrival, and may become smaller as the labor market adjusts to the supply shock. Conversely, if immigrants upon arrival are poor substitutes for natives, the initial effect of immigration is small, and increases over time as immigrants acquire local labor market skills and compete with native workers. We empirically examine these alternative hypotheses using data from Israel between 1989 and 1999.We find that wages of both men and women are negatively correlated with the fraction of immigrants with little local experience in a labor market segment. A 10 percent increase in the share of immigrants lowers natives' wages in the short run by 1–3 percent, but this effect dissolves after 4–7 years. This result is robust to a variety of different segmentations of the labor market, to the inclusion of cohort effects, and to different dynamic structures in the residual term of the wage equation. On the other hand, we do not find any effect of immigration on employment, neither in the short nor in the medium run.     

Do foreigners replace native immigrants? A panel cointegration analysis of internal migration in Italy

This paper examines the impact of the immigration of foreigners on domestic labor mobility. Since David Card's seminal study on the regional labor market impact of the Mariel Boatlift it is controversial whether domestic labor mobility equilibrates economic conditions across regions. However, there is little or no evidence that natives leave destinations where migrants tend to cluster. In this paper we reconcile the existing evidence by taking another route: we analyze whether the immigration of foreigners replaces domestic mobility from poor to rich regions. We focus on Italy, which is characterized by large North-South wage and unemployment differentials, and apply panel cointegration methods. The main finding is that, conditional on unemployment and wage differentials, the presence of foreign workers in the labor force of the destination regions discourages internal labor mobility significantly. As a consequence, spatial correlation studies which use the variance of the foreigner share across regions for identifying the wage and employment effects of immigration, tend to understate the actual impact of foreign immigration.     

Flexible and Committed Profit Sharing with Wage Bargaining: Implications for Equilibrium Unemployment

We analyze the relationship between profit sharing, employee effort, wage formation and unemployment under different relative timings of the wage and profit sharing decisions. The optimal profit share under commitment exceeds that under flexibility, because through a profit share commitment the firm can induce wage moderation. The negotiated profit sharing depends positively on the bargaining power of trade union and it has both effort-enhancing and wage-moderating effects. Higher profit sharing is shown to reduce equilibrium unemployment under ``sufficiently rigid' labor market institutions, but it can harm employment when labor market ``rigidities' are ``small enough'.     

An alternative measure of wage flexibility

Wage flexibility is usually defined as the responsiveness of wages to market disequilibrium. But market disequilibrium can be defined in different ways. One can accept a non-Walrasian definition of equilibrium, the market being in equilibrium when agents have no incentive to change their decisions, even if a change of wages can improve their position. To study the behavior of wages as an equilibrating variable, it is appropriate to consider Walrasian demand and supply functions, in which wages are allowed to move in each period in a direction to restore equilibrium between Walrasian demand and supply, even when agents experience restrictions and take notice of these restrictions when making decisions. The degree of wage flexibility is most often measured as the amount of equilibrating change that took place in a certain period. In most wage equations wage flexibility is measured by the coefficient of the unemployment variable, which links the equilibrating change in the wage variable to the degree of market disequilibrium. The equalization of market disequilibrium with unemployment poses some problems. The authors wish to thank Freddy Heylen of the University of Gent for helpful comments.     

UNEMPLOYMENT,LABOR MARKET TRANSITIONS,AND RESIDUAL WAGE DISPERSION

It is commonplace in the debate on Germany's labor market problems to argue that low wage dispersion is a major reason for the high unemployment rate. This paper analyzes the relationship between unemployment and residual wage dispersion for individuals with comparable attributes. In the conventional neoclassical point of view, wages are determined by the marginal product of the workers. Accordingly, increases in union minimum wages result in a decline of residual wage dispersion and higher unemployment. A competing view regards wage dispersion as the outcome of search frictions and the associated monopsony power of the firms. Accordingly, an increase in search frictions causes both higher unemployment and higher wage dispersion. The empirical analysis attempts to discriminate between the two hypotheses for West Germany analyzing the relationship between wage dispersion and both the level of unemployment as well as the transition rates between different labor market states. The findings are not completely consistent with either theory. However, as predicted by search theory, one robust result is that unemployment by cells is not negatively correlated with the within‐cell wage dispersion.     

Involuntary unemployment,macroeconomic policy,and a behavioral model of the firm: Why high real wages need not cause high unemployment

The perspective of modern macroeconomic theory, be it new classical or old and new Keynesian, is that unemployment can be reduced only if real wages are cut. The modern Keynesians, basing themselves upon the microfoundations of efficiency wage theory, argue that real wages cannot and will not be cut by firms for efficiency wage reasons. This generates involuntary unemployment based on a market coordination problem. A behavioral model that contrasts with efficiency wage theory is presented here which suggests that reducing real wages need not affect the marginal cost of labor and, therefore, the number of individuals employed. In the behavioral model, wherein there exists some linearity in the relationship between real wages and working conditions and labor productivity, a lower real wage rate is not a necessary condition for reducing the unemployment rate nor is a higher real wage an obstacle to reducing it. In this scenario, unemployment, to the extent that it is demand-side induced, is not related to movements in real wages. Therefore, restoring full employment after a negative demand shock becomes a matter for demand management, not demand management that must be coordinated with measures designed to reduce real wages.     

International factor mobility and the labor market: A macroeconometric analysis of the German labor market

This paper deals with some problems of international factor mobility with respect to labor using the case of the German labor market. A quarterly macroeconometric model of the German labor market is developed and estimated. It consists of equations explaining labor supply and demand for men and women. Most equations distinguish between labor measured in persons and hours. After a determination of the variables of this model which are influenced by foreign employment two groups of foreign workers which differ according to their EC-member status are discussed separately. Because of several legal and institutional regulations a different treatment of each group with respect to employment policy is necessary. For foreigners from outside the EC alternative reaction functions of the government are discussed and estimated. As the officially published unemployment rate is not comparable intertemporally because of foreign involuntary remigration during recession a new unemployment series including these persons is constructed and explained. The influence of foreign employment on wages is examined and two wage equations are estimated. Finally, some simulation results of an enforced remigration policy are reported.     

Reforming Social Welfare in Germany: An Applied General Equilibrium Analysis

Abstract. In this paper, the effects of social assistance reform proposals are discussed for the case of Germany using a computable general equilibrium model that incorporates a discrete choice model of labour supply. This allows us to identify general equilibrium effects of the reforms on wages and unemployment. The simulation results show that general equilibrium wage reactions mitigate labour supply effects and that unemployment in fact decreases. Wage reactions are thus sufficiently strong to prevent additional labour supply from translating into higher unemployment. The simulations indicate that major cuts in welfare payments are necessary to produce substantial employment effects.     

Tenure, business cycle and the wage-setting process

We analyze the interaction between job tenure and external labor market conditions in wage determination. First, we introduce a model that combines job matching with business-cycle effects. As the employment relationship progresses, the worker appropriates a portion of the value of the match-specific human capital she accumulates, gradually becoming shielded from the cyclical variations in external labor market conditions: the employment relationship is progressively “internalized”. Then, we present empirical evidence supporting this prediction: the elasticity of wages to the unemployment rate decreases with tenure. This finding is robust to different specifications that allow for job heterogeneity, and it contributes to the interpretation of recent evidence of changes in the effect of the business cycle on wages.     

Employment effects of stabilization policies

This paper studies the effects of a stabilization program based on a reduction in the devaluation rate in an optimizing model with capital controls, minimum wages for unskilled labor, an informal sector, and public production of intermediate inputs. Perfect mobility across sectors of the unskilled labor force prevents the emergence of unemployment for that category of labor, but skilled unemployment prevails in equilibrium. The analysis highlights the role of endogenous labor market segmentation in assessing the wage and employment effects of stabilization policies.     

Price and quantity adjustments in the Austrian labour market

Austria is among the very few countries in the European Union which have managed to maintain comparatively low unemployment rates and high employment rates. This study looks at the price and quantity adjustment mechanisms in the Austrian labour market which may have contributed to this favourable outcome. After reviewing briefly the basic theoretical reasoning an empirical investigation is began into gross flow dynamics in the labour market and the cyclical volatility of employment and unemployment in Austria. In international comparison Austrian unemployment is very stable over the business cycle. This is due mainly to the high sensitivity of the labour force on cyclical conditions and, partly, also on the relatively weak responsiveness of employment to cyclical fluctuations in output, the latter being possibly attributable to the high degree of real wage flexibility in Austria. The study proceeds to show that the long-run elasticity of wages with respect to unemployment is indeed quite high in Austria. However, evidence was also found for outsider effects in the Austrian wage setting process. Relative wage structures, on the other hand, appear to be rather rigid.     

Employment cycles, low income work and the dynamic impact of wage regulations. A macro perspective

In this paper we investigate, against the background of Goodwin??s (1967) growth cycle model, a dual labor market economy and the consequences of introducing an unemployment benefit system and minimum wages in the second labor market and a maximum wage barrier in the first one. In the framework with free ??hiring?? and firing?? in the both labor markets we show (a) that in fact maximum real wages in the first labor market not only reduce the volatility of this labor market, but also provide global stability to the system dynamics if they are locally explosive, and (b) that larger fluctuations in employment can be made (at least partially) socially acceptable through a (workfare oriented) unemployment benefit system augmented by minimum wage in the low income segment of the labor market.     

How do Migrants Choose Their Destination Country? An Analysis of Institutional Determinants

We analyze the effects of socio‐economic and institutional determinants, especially labor‐market institutions and features of social protection systems, on migrants’ location choices. Based on micro‐data for France, Germany, the UK, and the USA, we study migration to one of these four countries using a multinomial choice framework. Our estimates confirm conventional results regarding wages, networks, and unemployment rates. In addition, we find that there are indications of “insider–outsider effects” for union coverage and unemployment benefits, while employment protection does not have a clear‐cut impact on migration. Good education and health systems tend to attract migrants, while generous pension systems deter them.     

Exploring different measures of wage flexibility in a developing economy context: the case for Turkey

In this paper we use Turkish household labor force data to address a number of conceptual issues pertaining to the wage curve, an empirically derived negative relationship between the real wage level and the local unemployment rate. First, we show that in developing economies where labor markets are prone to high degree of segmentation by skill level, local unemployment rates disaggregated by education provide more accurate measures of the degree of group-specific wage competition and hence yield more robust results of the wage curve analyses. Second, we estimate the wage curve using various definitions of the unemployment rate, including discouraged and marginally attached workers, and the long-term unemployment rate to explore the most relevant measure of local labor market tension in the wage setting process. We find that broader definitions of unemployment serve as a more effective reference point in measuring wage flexibility for women, whose attachment to the labor market is substantially weak in the Turkish context; while for men the official and long-term unemployment rates perform well. Finally, using quantile regression we show that wage responsiveness to unemployment cannot be assumed to be constant along the wage distribution. In the Turkish case, we find a higher unemployment elasticity of wages around the median segment of wage distribution. This effect is more pronounced for women.     

International fragmentation: Boon or bane for domestic employment?

In this paper, we introduce the fairness approach to efficiency wages into a standard model of international fragmentation. This gives us a theoretical framework in which wage inequality and unemployment rates are co-determined and therefore the public concern can be addressed that international fragmentation and outsourcing to low wage countries lead to domestic job-losses. We develop a novel diagrammatic tool to illustrate the main labour market effects of international fragmentation. We also explore how preferences for fair wages and the size of unemployment benefits govern the employment effects of outsourcing and critically assess the role of political intervention that aims to reduce unemployment benefits under internationally fragmented production.     

Wage bargaining,trade and growth

We construct a North-South product-cycle model of trade with fully-endogenous growth and union wage bargaining. Economic growth is driven by Northern entrepreneurs who conduct R&D to innovate higher quality products. Northern production technologies can leak to the South upon successful imitation. The North has two sectors: a tradable industrial goods sector (manufacturing) where wages are determined via a bargaining process and a non-tradable sector (services) where wages are flexible. The South has only a tradable industrial goods sector where wages are flexible.We find that unilateral Northern trade liberalization, in the form of lower Northern tariffs on industrial goods, increases the rate of innovation but decreases both the bargained wage in the industrial sector and the flexible wage in the service sector. The wage effects are relative to the Southern wage rate. We also consider a variant of the model with Northern unemployment, driven by a binding minimum wage in the non-tradable service sector. In this case, Northern tariff cuts decrease the innovation rate and the bargained wage rate. In addition, the Northern unemployment rate increases. The model thus highlights the role of labor market institutions in determining the growth and labor market effects of tariff reductions. We also study the effects of unilateral Southern trade liberalization.     

The British labor market in disequilibrium: Did the dole reduce employment in interwar Britain?

In this paper we estimate an econometric model of the labor market in interwar Britain. We reject the hypothesis that wages adjust sufficiently speedily to clear the labor market in each year in favor of a disequilibrium model in which the level of employment is determined by the lesser of labor demand or supply. We find that the level of unemployment benefits is a key determinant of labor supply. We estimate that a reduction in benefits to approximately half the 1925-38 average would have resulted in an increase in employment of between eight and twelve percent.